Welcome to JM s Capital Market Day Dalénum, November 27, 2009
Agenda Good prospects moving forward Johan Skoglund, President and CEO Structured project development and environmental initiative Lennart Henriz, Head of Operations Development (Quality, Environment & IT) Strategic purchasing Sören Bergström, Head of JM Residential Sweden business unit and Director of Purchasing Stockholm operation Zdravko Markovski, Head of JM Residential Stockholm, JM Property Development and JM Production business unit Foreign operation Sten Hamberg, Head of JM Norway and JM Denmark, Finland and Belgium business unit Continued prioritization of balance sheet and cash flow Claes Magnus Åkesson, Chief Financial Officer JM 2010-2011 Johan Skoglund, President and CEO 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 2
Good prospects moving forward Johan Skoglund, President and CEO
Dalénum 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 4
Group 2009-09-30 2008 2007 Income, SEK m 6,239 12,229 12,731 Operating profit, SEK m 339 1,083 2,301 Operating margin, % 5.4 8.9 18.1 Return on equity, % 2.2 22.9 44.5 Earnings per share, SEK 2.00 9.50 18.30 Balance sheet total, SEK m 9,723 10,055 9,916 1) 1) 12-month period 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 5
Project developer of residential units in the Nordic countries Established: Sweden - 1945 Norway - 1998 Denmark - 1999 Finland - 2006 11 % 86 % Norway Sweden Finland 2 % Denmark Belgium 1 % 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 6
Global trends Decreasing world population after 2050 Europe's population is already dropping; 20% decrease by 2050 Poor East harder hit than affluent west US population increasing Experts agree on: Climate change Demography Integration Source: Stein Brothers AB 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 7
Forecast, number of children per woman 2010 US 2.02 Irland 1.96 Norway 1.86 Sweden 1.85 Denmark 1.85 UK 1.85 Finland 1.85 France 1.85 Estonia 1.79 Latvia 1.48 Lithuania 1.43 Germany 1.34 Poland 1.29 China 1.79 Brazil 1.70 India 2.52 Source: Stein Brothers AB 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 8
Forecast. 65+ percent of total population 2010-2050 2010 2030 2050 Japan 22.6 30.8 37.8 Spain 17.2 24.7 35.7 Italy 20.5 27.5 35.3 Germany 20.4 27.5 31.5 Poland 13.5 22.6 29.4 France 16.8 24.2 27.3 Finland 16.9 26.1 27.0 UK 16.6 22.9 26.6 Ireland 11.8 18.3 26.2 Sweden 18.3 23.1 24.3 Denmark 16.3 22.6 24.1 Norway 15.0 20.7 23.8 The Netherlands 14.9 22.5 23.5 US 13.0 19.8 21.6 China 8.2 15.9 23.3 Source: Stein Brothers AB 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 9
Strategic focus Growth markets in the Nordic countries JM shall be the leading project developer of high quality residential units in the Nordic countries Greater customer and market focus Expanded customer base for high-quality residential units in attractive locations housing type and price segment increased focus on single-family homes and senior housing Building rights portfolio optimized for residential units development properties, about four years of production Limited development of commercial projects Structured planning and strategic purchasing. 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 10
Improved home sales 2009 Group Number 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 3 790 3 880 1 871 2 906 2 837 2 383 1 601 2006 2007 2008 Jan-sept 2009 Q1-Q3 Q4 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 11
Stable housing starts 2009 Group Number 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 4 132 4 065 1 829 2 885 3 018 1 483 1 446 2006 2007 2008 Jan-sep 2009 Q1-Q3 Q4 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 12
Decreased business risk 2009 Percentage sold and reserved residential units in current production Group 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Jan 2003 Jul Jan 2004 Jul Jan 2005 Jul Jan 2006 Jul Jan 2007 Jul Jan 2008 Jul Jan 2009 Jul 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 13
SEK,NOK,DKK/m 2 60 000 55 000 50 000 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 Q1 1999 Q3 Source: Tyréns Temaplan AB JM s Nordic markets Price development tenant-owned apartments (Sweden), Freehold apartments (Copenhagen, Oslo) second-hand market 1999 - Q3 2009 Q1 2000 Q3 Q1 2001 Stockholm Inner city Greater Stockholm Q3 Q1 2002 Q3 Q1 2003 Q3 Q1 2004 Malmö municipality Q3 Gothenburg municipality Q1 2005 Q3 Q1 2006 Q3 Q1 2007 Copenhagen (DKK) Oslo (NOK) Q3 Q1 2008 Q3 Q1 2009 Q3 EURO/m 2 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Capital city region Helsinki, EURO 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 14
Number 90 000 Housing starts Sweden 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 Single-family homes Apartment blocks Source: SCB, BI 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 15
Housing costs percentage of disposable income Sweden Percent 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1993 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Excluding energy costs Energy costs Source: SCB, KI 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 16
Increased debt ratio, but low interest ratio 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 17
Real house prices Sweden, UK and US Source: Riksbanken 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 18
Good customer relations Housing for different phases in life Personal and convenient housing Customer requests drive development 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 19
Customer Satisfaction Index (NKI) Sweden 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,24 4,25 4,24 4 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3 JM Sweden Stockholm Business segment Sweden Business segment 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 20
New behaviors Decisions are made faster than ever about the most important transaction in life Increased demand for total solution Interest in form and design Increased interest in environmentally friendly homes Good storage and dream bathrooms Reduction. 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 21
Young adults Large social power Experience-driven Personal history is status symbol Friends among the most important Café generation becomes home generation Not overgrown young people; just want a different adult lifestyle. Source: Opinonbengal 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 22
Modern family with children Sweden's most attractive target group Reproduction of own childhood Weekends are sacred Include children in old life Large desire to spend on experiences Telecom pioneers. Source: Opinonbengal 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 23
Seniors don t feed the pigeons Good life - health and harmony Underestimated target group Redifined identity; roll reversals occur Spend nothing left for the children Dreams for travel, experiences, housing Source: Opinonbengal 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 24
Demographic developments vs. housing production Stockholm Number 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Increased population Completed homes Increased population covered by newly produced housing Source: SCB, Compiled by Prognoscentret Aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 25
Population growth Stockholm County Number 2 100 000 1 900 000 1 889 945 1 918 104 1 949 516 1 981 263 1 998 896 1 700 000 1 500 000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-06-30 1) 1) Including: net population growth 6,608 Source: SCB net domestic migration, rest of Sweden 3,231 abroad 7,872 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 26
New construction starts vs. population increase Stockholm County No. units 40 000 35 000 30 000 31749 35 266 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 Population growth Number of housing starts Number of people calculated at 1.8 persons/home 5 000 Source: SCB 0 6590 4160 3 661 2 311 2008 2009F 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 27
Demographic developments vs. housing production Gothenburg Number 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population growth Completed homes Increased population covered by newly produced housing Source: SCB, Compiled by Prognoscentret Aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 28
Demographic developments vs. housing production Malmö Number 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population growth Completed homes Increased population covered by newly produced housing Source: SCB, Compiled by Prognoscenter aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 29
Demographic developments vs. housing production Oslo Number 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Pupulation growth Completed homes Increased population covered by newly produced housing Source: SSB, Compilted by Prognoscentret aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 30
Demographic developments vs. housing Antal 12000 production Copenhagen 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-2000 Befolkningsökning Färdigställda bostäder Befolkningsökning som täcks av de nyproducerade bostäderna Med Köpenhamn avses områdena Köpenhamn och Fredriksberg definierade enligt Danmarks Statistik. Trots de nytillkomna bostäderna har det totala antalet bostäder inom området knappt ökat sedan 1991. Detta beror på att många (små) lägenheter samtidigt försvunnit genom sammanslagningar (och ev. av rivningar). Befolkningsökningen i området har varit betydligt lägre än vad det varit i de andra större städerna i Norden. Befolkningen har ökat med omkring 5.5% under de senaste 10 åren medan övriga nordiska länder har en ökning på över 10 %. Prognosen för befolkningsutvecklingen för området de kommande 8 åren är mellan 0.4 och 0.6 % enligt Danmarks Statistik. Källa: Prognoscentret aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 31
Demographic developments vs. housing production Helsinki Antal 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Befolkningsökning Färdigställda bostäder Befolkningsökning som täcks av de nyproducerade bostäderna Soucre: Statistics Finland, sammanställt av Prognoscentret aug 2009 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 32
Constantly improving efficiency Industrialize our process Cost-consciousness Structured planning Strategic procurement agreements 2009-11-27 Capital Market JS 33