Verdict Financial: Wealth Management. Data Collection and Forecasting Methodologies

Transcription

1 Verdict Financial: Wealth Management Data Collection and Forecasting Methodologies April 2014

2 Contents Global Wealth Markets Methodology Methodology Methodology 2

3 Global Wealth Markets Section 1: Global Wealth Markets Methodology Next section 3

4 Contents Global Wealth Markets Introduction Verdict Financial s Global Wealth Markets Methodology Data Gathering, Data Validation and Modelling Appendix Definitions of Liquid Assets Page 5 Page 9 Page 14 4

5 Global Wealth Markets Introduction Back to index 5

6 Introduction Global Wealth Markets Verdict Financial s Global Wealth Markets Verdict Financial s Global Wealth Markets delivers a powerful view across global wealth markets, enabling crosscomparisons of 64 countries and six regions. Historical and forecast data are segmented by 12 asset bands. 6

7 Introduction Global Wealth Markets The global nature of our tool 64 countries and six regions Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe Australia Bulgaria Argentina Bahrain Canada Austria China Croatia Brazil Israel US Belgium Hong Kong Czech Republic Chile Kenya Denmark India Estonia Colombia Kuwait Finland Indonesia Hungary Mexico Nigeria France Japan Latvia Peru Oman Germany Kazakhstan Lithuania Qatar Greece Malaysia Poland Saudi Arabia Ireland New Zealand Romania South Africa Italy Pakistan Russian Federation UAE Netherlands Philippines Serbia Norway Singapore Slovakia Portugal South Korea Slovenia Spain Taiwan Turkey Sweden Thailand Ukraine Switzerland UK 7

8 Introduction For each of the 64 countries we include the aggregated retail resident onshore portion of. Deposits (YES) Equities (YES) Bonds (YES) Mutual funds (YES) Physical assets (NO) Global Wealth Markets Alternative investments (NO) 8

9 Global Wealth Markets Methodology Back to index 9

10 Global Wealth Markets Methodology Verdict Financial uses a well-tested methodology developed over 10 years Data gathering/fieldwork Analyst-led data validation Principal analyst-led modeling FINAL PRODUCT 10

11 Methodology Global Wealth Markets For each of the 64 countries data are updated using a number of sources Treasuries and other government offices Central banks Investment managers associations Country 1 64 Annual company reports Primary interviews Stock exchanges and clearing houses Statistical offices 11

12 Global Wealth Markets Methodology For each of the 64 countries we make sure the data are validated through various means Data validation Our team of experienced analysts checks that the data is in line with expected total market size and development Elements taken into consideration per country Maturity of the financial services market in each country Level of GDP per capita and personal incomes Expected saving ratio and risk propensity Cross-check with comparable countries 12

13 Methodology Global Wealth Markets Our experienced analysts create the final output Total liquid assets pool Base model Gini/income distribution Total adult population Market forecast (to 2017) Fieldwork + analyst validation Proprietary to Verdict Financial World Bank MarketLine Global Investments Liquid assets Individuals Mass Market Mass affluent HNW/UHNW $0 50,000 $50,000 75,000 $75, ,000 $100, ,000 $150, ,000 $300, ,000 $500, ,000 $750,000 1m $1m 1.5m $1.5m 3m $3m 10m $10m+ 13

14 Global Wealth Markets Appendix Back to index 14

15 Appendix Definition of liquid assets Global Wealth Markets Liquid assets (also called liquid wealth) are defined as households direct holdings in cash and retail savings and investment classes, including the following: 1. Bonds Includes direct holdings in government and other bonds, including: long- and short-term government bonds, issued by both central and local governments municipal bonds participation bonds corporate bonds. 2. Cash Includes notes and coins in circulation held by individuals. 3. Deposits Includes both time and sight deposits. 4. Equities Includes direct holdings in listed stocks and shares. This excludes unquoted shares and shares in mutual funds or investment trusts. 5. Mutual funds Includes direct holding of: money market funds equity funds bond funds other types of funds (funds of funds, property funds, balanced funds, and so on). However, it excludes exchange-traded funds. 15

16 Global Wealth Markets Section 2: Methodology Previous section Next section 16

17 Contents Global Wealth Markets Introduction Verdict Financial s Global Investment Methodology Data Gathering, Data Validation and Modelling Appendix Definitions of Liquid Assets Page 18 Page 22 Page 27 17

18 Global Wealth Markets Introduction Back to index 18

19 Introduction Global Wealth Markets Verdict Verdict Financial s Verdict Financial's delivers a powerful view across global savings and investments markets, enabling cross-comparisons of 62 countries and six regions. Historical and forecast data are segmented by four main asset classes. 19

20 Introduction Global Wealth Markets The global nature of our tool 62 countries and six regions Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe Australia Bulgaria Argentina Bahrain Canada Austria China Croatia Brazil Israel US Belgium Hong Kong Czech Republic Chile Kenya Denmark India Estonia Colombia Kuwait Finland Indonesia Hungary Mexico Nigeria France Japan Latvia Peru Oman Germany Kazakhstan Lithuania Saudi Arabia Greece Malaysia Poland South Africa Ireland New Zealand Romania Italy Pakistan Russian Federation Netherlands Philippines Serbia Norway Singapore Slovakia Portugal South Korea Slovenia Spain Taiwan Turkey Sweden Thailand Ukraine Switzerland UK 20

21 Introduction For each of the 62 countries we include the retail resident onshore portion of the main four main asset classes Deposits (YES) Equities (YES) Bonds (YES) Mutual funds (YES) Physical assets (NO) Global Wealth Markets Alternative investments (NO) 21

22 Global Wealth Markets Methodology Back to index 22

23 Global Wealth Markets Methodology Verdict Financial uses a well-tested methodology developed over 10 years Data gathering/fieldwork Analyst-led data validation Principal analyst-led modeling FINAL PRODUCT 23

24 Global Wealth Markets Methodology For each of the 62 countries data are updated using a number of sources Treasuries and other government offices Central banks Investment managers associations Country 1 62 Annual company reports Primary interviews Stock exchanges and clearing houses Statistical offices 24

25 Global Wealth Markets Methodology For each of the 62 countries we make sure the data are validated through various means Data validation Our team of experienced analysts checks that the data is in line with expected total market size and development Elements taken into consideration per country Maturity of the financial services market in each country Level of GDP per capita and personal incomes Expected saving ratio and risk propensity Cross-check with comparable countries 25

26 Methodology Global Wealth Markets Our experienced analysts create the final output Total savings and investments pool Macro-economic variables forecasts Qualitative adjustments Onshore/ Retail Only Fieldwork + analyst validation MarketLine, Worldbank, IMF, EIU Principal analyst Primary/secondary research, modeling Retail-only Onshore-only Bonds Deposits Equities Mutual funds 26

27 Global Wealth Markets Appendix Back to index 27

28 Appendix Global Wealth Markets Definition of savings and investments Retail savings and investment classes, including the households onshore portion of the following: 1. Bonds Includes direct holdings in government and other bonds, including: long- and short-term government bonds, issued by both central and local governments municipal bonds participation bonds corporate bonds. 3. Deposits Includes both time and sight deposits. However it excludes notees and coins in circulation held by individuals. 4. Equities Includes direct holdings in listed stocks and shares. This excludes unquoted shares and shares in mutual funds or investment trusts. 5. Mutual funds Includes direct holding of: money market funds equity funds bond funds other types of funds (funds of funds, property funds, balanced funds, and so on). However, it excludes exchange-traded funds. 28

29 Global Wealth Markets Section 3: Methodology Previous section 29

30 Contents Global Wealth Markets Introduction Verdict Financial s Methodology Who we ask, when and what we do Page 31 Page 35 30

31 Global Wealth Markets Introduction Back to index 31

32 Introduction Global Wealth Markets Verdict Financial s Verdict Financial's 2013 Global Wealth Managers enables crosscomparison of the different profiles of HNW customers across 20 geographies. Coverage ranges from source of wealth and the HNW expat population, to asset allocation preferences and service and product demand. Communication channel preferences, including , telephone, and social media, are also included. 32

33 Global Wealth Markets Introduction The global nature of our survey Sweden Russia UK Belgium France Germany US Switzerland Turkey Israel India China Hong Kong UAE Malaysia Philippines Brazil Singapore Australia South Africa 33

34 Introduction Who we asked, when Global Wealth Markets 20 countries 325 wealth managers Our selection process guarantees that wealth managers are nationally representative of each country. A range of senior representatives from each wealth manager are interviewed by phone, focusing on the HNW segment. 34

35 Global Wealth Markets Methodology Back to index 35

36 Methodology Verdict Financial uses a well-tested methodology developed over 10 years design inputs Global Wealth Markets Stakeholder participation Engagement with clients and analysts to understand key research requirements. Analyst-led design Questionnaire designed by analyst team. Question design pilot New question formats tested to ensure optimum flow. Final survey design 36

37 Global Wealth Markets Methodology What we asked: demographic, asset allocation, business model, service demand, and offer Focus area Demographic Asset allocation Service offer Service demand Communication channels Social media Client acquisition Fee model Type of questions asked HNW source of wealth; industry; age; country of origin; reasons for expatriating. HNW asset allocation and sub-allocation in deposits (national currency vs foreign currency vs money market funds); equities (local vs foreign and direct vs funds); and bonds (corporate vs government, local vs foreign, and direct vs funds). Wealth managers service offers in terms of asset management (advisory, discretionary, executiononly, and pensions); credit (loans and mortgages); expat services (educational services, government registration, tax advisory etc.); planning (financial, inheritance, and tax); other (art, general insurance, and philanthropy); and whether wealth managers offer these services directly or through a third party. HNW service demand in terms of asset management, credit, planning, other, and whether wealth managers expect demand to increase or decrease in the coming years. Channel and frequency of communication with HNW clients e.g. , face-to-face, social media, telephone, or via the website. Reasons for not developing a social media channel to communicate with clients, e.g. company policy, platform is too public, lack of regulation, and so on. How HNW individuals are acquired by wealth managers, whether directly, through events, through external or internal referrals, via relationship managers own contacts, and so on. Annual management fee; flat rate annual fee; performance fee; trail commission; upfront commission. 37

38 Global Wealth Markets Methodology For each of the 20 countries we conduct phone interviews with representative wealth managers Mode Telephone interviewing Mode justification Given the number of interviews, the seniority of the target audience, and the sensitivity of the information gathered, a telephone-based interview is the only viable system. A telephone vs an online mode offers the advantage of checking in realtime for discrepancies in the data gathered. 38

39 Methodology When we asked Global Wealth Markets Questionnaire translated into native languages Data tested for quality assurance June 2013: survey launched October 2013 April 2014: data delivered Fieldwork starts with proper incentives offered Validation/ verification calls conducted 39

40 Analyst work flow Global Wealth Markets Methodology What we do with the survey responses: quantitative and qualitative inputs Primary research and Verdict Financial proprietary data Secondary research Client engagement Modeling and interpretation of Wealth Manager data, market forecasts, and trend analysis. Desk research using information from trade associations, press releases, trade press, news articles, and analysis of government statistics and other proprietary databases. Refining research through executive interviews, industry surveys, and client feedback. Verdict Financial Insight Content 40

41 Appendix Disclaimer Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Verdict Financial. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Verdict Financial delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Verdict Financial can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. 41

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