Regional E-Mobility Profiles SAMPLE IHS AUTOMOTIVE. Hybrid-EV Portal. ihs.com. May 2015

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1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE Hybrid-EV Portal Regional E-Mobility Profiles May 2015 ihs.com SAMPLE Ben Scott, Senior Analyst, +44 (0) ,

2 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 6 DEFINITIONS & ASSUMPTIONS 7 REGIONS United Kingdom 10 Norway 17 France 24 Germany 31 The Netherlands 38 USA 45 China 52 Japan 59 2

3 Introduction The IHS Automotive Regional E-Mobility Profiles are designed to assess and compare key e-mobility markets. E-mobility is the concept of using an electrified powertrain to propel vehicles and is enabled by many factors including infrastructure, legislation, and costs. This report tracks the development of these markets to understand which countries are the best for e-mobility. For each country, the following areas are analysed: EV/PHEV/HEV registrations & top EV/PHEV model registrations Legislation & incentives Deployed EV charging stations Country energy generation mix Cost to drive & total cost of ownership 3

4 Definitions EV A purely battery Electric Vehicle PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle (without a plug) NEV New Energy Vehicle (EVs, FCEVs and PHEVs with at least a 50km electric range) FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (Hydrogen) ICE Internal Combustion Engine TCO Total Cost of Ownership Mpg Miles per gallon Total cumulative registrations Passenger EV/PHEV/HEV registrations from 2008 to end of 2014 Deployed EV charging stations Includes charging cables that come with a plug-in vehicle, domestic wallboxes, and public/semi-public charging stations Plug-in Electric Vehicle Index Ranks plug-in vehicle market share from 2008 to end of 2014 Plug-in vehicle market share Total cumulative plug-in vehicle registrations (EV + PHEV) divided by total cumulative registrations of all passenger vehicles from 2008 to end of

5 Assumptions Cost to drive A calculation and conversion was made for each country to determine the cost to drive. The following assumptions were made in that calculation: ICE Gasoline = 35 mpg ICE Diesel = 45 mpg EV = 3.16 miles per kwh Electricity and fuel prices are averages over 2014 and are inclusive of all taxes and levies. The tax percentage for these prices are presented. Total cost of ownership (TCO) Factors initial EV private purchase price as new (no financing), on-going fuel costs and taxes. Unless otherwise stated, incentives, fuel prices, and taxes are assumed to remain the same across the forecast period. The EV and ICE vehicles compared are equivalent C- segment vehicles travelling 15,000 miles per year. Does not consider maintenance and servicing costs, domestic charging station installations, insurance, etc. Depreciation A calculation of average depreciation of EV and ICE vehicles (C-segment) over time was made and applied to initial purchase price. 5

6 Netherlands: E-mobility profile IHS Automotive Plug-in Electric Vehicle Index 2 6

7 Netherlands: EV/PHEV/HEV registrations overview Total cumulative registrations: 163,775 9% EV 19% PHEV 72% HEV Top 3 EVs/ PHEVs Plug-in vehicle total market share = 1.40% Yearly registrations Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 7,711 3,234 51% 38% 39% 2013 HEV % EV PHEV 13% 48% Volvo V60 PHEV 1, total registrations = 46,465-35% 2014 total registrations = 30,270 Tesla Model S EV 7

8 Netherlands: Legislation & incentives Title of incentive Vehicle application Type of incentive Incentive value Additional requirements Start date Registration Tax (BPM) Exemption EV, FCEV Exemption EVs and FCEVs are exempted from registration tax. PHEVs taxed at reduced rate (depending on g/km CO 2 ) Y 2015 Circulation Tax Exemption EV, PHEV, Hybrid Exemption Do not have to pay circulation tax Y 2015 Bijtelling EV, PHEV Reduction For lease drivers, 4% tax on EVs, 7% tax on PHEVs. Usually 20-25% for ICE vehicles. Y 2015 MIA Tax Break EV, PHEV Exemption EV = 36% MIA PHEV (0 30g/km CO 2 ) = 27% MIA PHEV (30 50g/km CO 2 ) = 13.5% MIA Y 2015 There are various city level subsidies for plugin vehicles in the Netherlands. For more information on these incentives, please see the IHS Automotive Hybrid-EV Legislation & Incentives Database. 8

9 Netherlands: Deployed EV charging stations 83.0k in % Domestic 14% Public/ Semi-public 9

10 Netherlands: Energy generation mix Electricity generation 2014 = 109TWh Hydroelectric = 0% Solar = 1% Other renewable = 6% Geothermal = 0% Wind = 5% Non-renewable = 87% 10

11 Netherlands: Cost to drive Domestic electricity Gasoline Diesel $0.14/ kwh $2.26/ litre $1.87/ litre (27% is Tax) (63% is Tax) (52% is Tax) $0.04/mile $0.29/mile $0.19/mile 11

12 $K $K $K Netherlands: Total cost of ownership TCO 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: IHS Years EV ICE - Gasoline ICE - Diesel TCO if pump prices double Years EV ICE - Gasoline ICE - Diesel Source: IHS Vehicle depreciation Years EV ICE - Gasoline ICE - Diesel Source: IHS The Netherlands ranks at number 2 on the IHS Automotive Plug-in Electric Vehicle Index, yet EV price is one of the highest in Europe (after incentives). Adoption of plugin vehicles has been high because of a subsidy, which expired at the end of This explains why total EV/PHEV/HEV registrations between 2013 and 2014 fell by 35%. However, TCO for an EV reaches parity with ICE vehicles in under 2 years. 12

13 IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS Customer Care (see phone numbers and addresses listed above). All products, company names, or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners..