Impact of the climate change discussion on the

Transcription

1 Investor Visit, Credit Suisse, Ingolstadt, 19 May 2009 Impact of the climate change discussion on the Dr. Guido Haak Central Functions/Processes, Product Management, AUDI AG

2 Facts regarding CO 2 and the automobile The public discourse Impact on the Summary

3 CO 2 emission = fuel consumption 1l Gasoline 1l Diesel 2.4 kg CO 2 (Gasoline) 2.7 kg CO 2 (Diesel) Conversion factor consumption - CO 2 Gasoline: 1 l/100km = 24 g/km CO 2 Diesel: 1 l/100km = 27 g/km CO g/km = 5.0 l/100km 120 g/km = 4.5 l/100km

4 50% of fuel consumption represents avoidable losses Overcoming of external driving resistances 12% - weight (Inertia) 11% - aerodynamic drag 8% - aircon, cooling, electrics Losses Ideal energy conversion 19% - powertrain: transmission, tires, wheel bearings, power steering pump 19% - engine: friction, charge changing combustion process 31% - engine: conversion of chemical into mechanical energy

5 Significant efficiency increase in road transport Traffic volume people/freight, CO 2 emissions 1990 = 100 People km traveled Tons km (freight) CO 2 emissions

6 Automotive industry has only limited leverage Share of greenhouse gases* Share of regions in CO 2 emissions worldwide Share of industry sectors in German CO 2 emissions Others - Methane - CFC - Nitrousoxide 36% RoW 48% Industry, trade 25% 13% Private households China 14% CO 2 64% USA 24% Rest EU 9% UK 2% 3% *w.r.t. anthropogenic greenhouse gases, i.e., man-made Germany 43% Power and heat plants 7% 12% Passenger cars Remaining traffic Passenger car traffic in Germany has a share of 0.2%, in the EU of 1.4% in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

7 Facts regarding CO 2 and the automobile The public discourse Impact on the Summary

8 Issue #1: National regulation differs National interests are different and always will be and motivate diverse regulations and incentive systems Industry politics Technologies Local environment/ pollutants Resource politics Focus of regulation Environmental politics Mobility Global environment/climate

9 Issue #2: Contradictory approaches at all levels EU European fleet targets for CO 2 emissions Code of conduct for certain vehicle concepts CO 2 labelling Green Procurement (environmental-friendly cars) Eco-consumer-rating on basis of life cycle assessment (production, use, disposal) Länder Länder Countries CO 2 based annual vehicle taxes Registration and import taxes National CO 2 labelling Städte Cities Diverse local regulatory policies in cities and communities on basis of CO 2 and pollutants, e.g., Toll systems Parking fees Ban from inner cities Local fleet requirements

10 More challenges than climate change Responsibility for our customers Social responsibility Cost of ownership Climate change Technical and traffic laws Brand claim: Vorsprung durch Technik Use of resources Safety Pollutant reduction

11 Customer behavior does not follow the public discussion Buying reasons in the EU, Germany and USA Reliability 2. Safety 3. Value for money Premium segment: Design beats environment 4. Total cost of ownership* 5. Environmental friendliness 6. Design/Styling 7. Good relationship with dealer/service station 8. Brand/prestige *Purchasing price, taxes, insurance, consumption, service

12 Integrated approach necessary to reduce CO 2 in an economically sensible way Vehicle measures CO 2 emissions of a single passenger car in normed cycle Infrastructure Reduced CO 2 emissions through improved traffic control Alternative fuels CO 2 reduction by generation and consumption of alternative fuels Driver behavior Assistance systems and training to reduce CO 2 emissions in real driving cycle Regulation of CO 2 emissions must follow a holistic approach

13 Facts regarding CO 2 and the automobile The public discourse Impact on the Summary

14 Implications of discussed and implemented political measures Short-term (next months) Support for Diesel share in Europe Shift to smaller cars/smaller engines Higher share of low consumption concepts Increase in total cost of ownership for the customer Expensive technology will be partially priced Higher maintenance cost for complicated technology Long-term (next 5-10 years) Lead time 4-7 years Risk of stigmatisation of vehicle segments (e.g., SUV) Permanent shifts in competition Diesel share uncertain due to increasing emission standards (EU6) and fuel price development

15 Facts regarding CO 2 and the automobile The public discourse Impact on the Summary

16 Summary Climate and CO 2 discussion is here to stay for the automotive industry Car buyers all over the world expect the industry to provide climate friendly solutions which cost nothing and allow them not to change their behavior The automotive industry will provide solutions to a certain extent but not immediately and only at additional cost Disturbances are generated in this process by contradictory regulation from regional, national and international politics as well as by a public discussion not based on facts

17 Dr. Guido Haak Central Functions/Processes, Product Management, AUDI AG

18 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Audi Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese rinminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded.