REPORT: WP1.6 ELECTRIC VEHICLE TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP

Transcription

1 ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN A DISTRIBUTED AND INTEGRATED MARKET USING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND OPEN NETWORKS REPORT: WP1.6 ELECTRIC VEHICLE TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP Type: Deliverable Identifier: D1.6.2 Classification: External report Version: 1.0 Editors: Jan Rasmussen, DEA Date: April 12, 2012 Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 1 of 11

2 CONTENT 1 SUMMERY TCO Analysis Appendix A Breakdown of costs Breakdown of costs Breakdown of costs Breakdown of costs Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 2 of 11

3 1 SUMMERY This is the second report from work package 1.6 of the EDISON project. As the first report was dealing with EVs from a socio economic perspective, this report deals with the costs related to EVs from a customer perspective. The following total cost of ownership shows the cost of owning four different cars two conventional cars and two electric vehicles for a period of five years. Currently one of the ICE-cars turns out to be the cheapest option. The EVs are competitive though, and from 2015 an EV is expected to be become the cheapest option. The analysis shows that small economic incentives like free parking of EVs potentially can have a significant impact on the total cost of ownership and thereby be an effective way to promote the roll-out of EVs. 2 TCO ANALYSIS Total cost of ownership (TCO) is a financial estimate whose purpose is to help consumers and enterprise managers determine direct and indirect costs of a product or system. The TCO concept is widely used in the transportation industry. The TCO defines the cost of owning an automobile from the time of purchase by the owner, through its operation and maintenance to the time it leaves the possession of the owner. Comparative TCO studies between various models help consumers choose a car to fit their needs and budget. The following is a summary of the expected costs of four cars two EVs (Renault Fluence and Nissan Leaf) and two ICEs (Kia Cee d and VW Jetta) * - for the years 2012, 2015, 2020 and It is necessary to introduce a number of assumptions especially for the years 2020 and 2030: Development of prices for ICE and EV cars and improvements in energy efficiency are based on the report Reduction in CO2 emissions by increased use of electric vehicles by the EDISON Consortium. EVs are assumed to be exempted from the registration tax also in 2015 a promise made by the former and the present Danish governments. * Prices listed according to the homepage of Better Place, Nissan, Kia and Volkswagen as of January Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 3 of 11

4 The TCO-analysis shows the ICE car as the cheapest option in 2012, whereas the EV s are the cheapest options in In 2020 the Leaf is cheapest. Also in 2030 the Leaf is expected to be the cheapest option closely followed by the Kia and Renault, cf. table and figure 1. Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 1,4 TSI ,11 4,02 3,84 4, ,76 3,52 3,81 4, ,87 3,67 3,83 4, ,68 3,40 3,63 4,50 Table 1: TCO DKR/km ( km/year) ,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 1,4 TSI Figure 1: TCO DKR/km ( km/year) Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 4 of 11

5 In table 2 a green change has been made as the EVs are exempted from paying parking fees. The result is that EV s becomes the cheapest option in all the years except This indicates that incentives like free parking etc. potentially can have a major impact on the roll-out of EV s. Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 1,4 TSI ,99 3,90 3,84 4, ,63 3,40 3,81 4, ,74 3,55 3,83 4, ,56 3,28 3,63 4,50 Table 2: TCO DKR/km ( km/year) with a green parking fee ,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 1,4 TSI Figure 2: TCO DKR/km ( km/year) with a green parking fee Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for a vehicle include depreciation, fuel, insurance, taxation and factors like cost of parking. Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 5 of 11

6 Depreciation is the largest cost factor. Depreciation is a vehicle's loss in value over a defined period. According to Consumerreports.org the average model depreciates about 65 percent over five years. Some vehicles depreciate faster than others because of oversupply, limited appeal, or rebates on similar new models. Depreciation data for the present EVs remains to be seen. The depreciation of the ICE car is set to 60 per cent and the EVs to 70 per cent. The difference is due to an expected fast development of the EV-technology in the coming years. This may result in a relatively faster depreciation. It remains to be seen, if the Nissan Leaf depreciates faster than the Fluence, where the battery is leased and as such is taken out of the calculation. If the Fluence is sold after five years or the subscription is cancelled, it will not be able to function without the purchase or lease of a battery. Fuel costs can add up, especially for non-a og B marked cars or SUVs for that matter. To calculate fuel costs, we assume the vehicles are driven km a year. Projections of energy efficiency is based on the EDISON Consortium-report, and projections of prices of gasoline and electricity are based on the Danish Energy Agency s forecast, cf. table 2 Projection of prices Gasoline 1,00 1,04 1,10 1,18 Electricity 1,00 1,00 1,05 1,07 Table 2: Projection of gasoline and electricity prices Note: Based on Energy Agency, DTU Transport and own calculations The price for a litre of gasoline in 2012 is set to DKR 11,21. Projections of future costs are based on a 2009 forecast made by The Danish Energy Agency, further adapted to energy taxes by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and projections of energy efficiency is based on the EDISON Consortium-report. The price of gasoline is somewhat underestimated in light of the present level of DKR %20og%20modelcenter/transportoekonomiske%20enhedspriser/transportøkonomiske%20enhedspriser%20vers%201.3%20ju l10.xls Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 6 of 11

7 When it comes to the EVs, the cost depends on the price pr kwh for the Nissan Leaf whereas fuel is included in the packaged with the Fluence. The price of a kwh in 2012 is set to DKR 1,91. The price of the Better Place subscription can go up or down depending on the intensity of the competition, opportunities of bundling, a more flexible price scheme for electricity etc. The price is assumed to remain at its present level. Included in the TCO for the Nissan Leaf is the expense for a home charging device priced at DKR Insurance costs vary depending on many factors, including age, location, and driving record. And they can boost the ownership costs of models that otherwise would seem affordable. The insurance company Tryg advertises a 40 per cent discount when insuring an EV. Insurance costs can be a decisive factor for especially younger persons, as the cost of entering the market can be quite high. EVs (unless it s a sports car like a Tesla) can be said to attract environmental worried people with sensible driving habits. They should therefore be cheaper to insure. Financing: The price of the car and any subscription cost is financed entirely by a loan (5 year maturity and 8 percent in interest). Other costs include 1,5 per cent in stamp duty, kr. for registration and 850 kr in the pledgee labeling, 2 per cent in service charge and 750 kr in handling fee for the mortgage deed. Fees and taxes: The calculations are based on the present Danish tax system including the expected exemption of EVs from registration tax till the end of The tax regime is expected to change in the medium term, as the government has announced a change of the taxation of cars to reward green vehicles. The design of a future system is not know at this time. Repairs and maintenance costs: This cost is expected to be DKR a year for the ICE car and DKR for the EVs. The expected difference is due to the simpler construction of the EV without an exhaust system etc. Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 7 of 11

8 3 APPENDIX A 3.1 BREAKDOWN OF COSTS Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta Fixed costs Car price Green taxes p.a Subscription p.a Variable costs p.a. Subscription Charging station Fuel Insurance Maintenance and tires Capital costs p.a. Interest costs Depreciation Total costs p.a Total costs pr. km. p.a. 3,99 3,90 3,71 4,38 Other factors p.a. Parking All included p.a All included pr. km. p.a. 4,11 4,02 3,84 4,50 Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 8 of 11

9 3.2 BREAKDOWN OF COSTS 2015 Renault Fluence Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 2015 Nissan Leaf Fixed costs Car price Green taxes p.a Subscription p.a Variable costs p.a. Subscription Charging station Fuel Insurance Maintenance and tires Capital costs p.a. Interest costs Depreciation Total costs p.a Total costs pr. km. p.a. 3,63 3,40 3,69 4,62 Other factors p.a. Parking All included p.a All included pr. km. p.a. 3,76 3,52 3,81 4,74 Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 9 of 11

10 3.3 BREAKDOWN OF COSTS 2020 Renault Fluence Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 2020 Nissan Leaf Fixed costs Car price Green taxes p.a Subscription p.a Variable costs p.a. Subscription Charging station Fuel Insurance Maintenance and tires Capital costs p.a. Interest costs Depreciation Total costs p.a Total costs pr. km. p.a. 3,74 3,55 3,70 4,65 Other factors p.a. Parking All included p.a All included pr. km. p.a. 3,87 3,67 3,83 4,77 Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 10 of 11

11 3.4 BREAKDOWN OF COSTS 2030 Renault Fluence Kia Cee'd 1,6 VW Jetta 2030 Nissan Leaf Fixed costs Car price Green taxes p.a Subscription p.a Variable costs p.a. Subscription Charging station Fuel Insurance Maintenance and tires Capital costs p.a. Interest costs Depreciation Total costs p.a Total costs pr. km. p.a. 3,56 3,28 4 4,38 Other factors p.a. Parking All included p.a All included pr. km. p.a. 3,68 3,40 3,63 4,50 Copyright EDISON Consortium All Rights Reserved Page 11 of 11