Hog and Poultry Price Outlook

Transcription

1 AAEA Extension Livestock Outlook Symposium Hog and Poultry Price Outlook Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Growth in World Pork Production (thousand metric tons) China U.S.A. Brazil E.U. Canada 9371 Others Source: USDA/FAS 1

2 $3.00 $2.50 Worldwide Production Cost, Feed Costs & Hog Price, Avg. Production Cost Finishing Feed Cost Feed Cost per Kg. of Gain Market Pig Price $2.00 US$/Kg. $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Japan Bel/Lux UK Korea, Rep. of Russia Netherlands Ireland Portugal New Zealand Italy Taiwan South Africa Germany Czech Rep. Australia France Colombia Spain Denmark Romania Poland Philippines (Data Source: PIC Worldwide Survey, Feb. ) Mexico Ecuador Thailand Venezuela Peru Chile Canada China USA Brazil Argentina Hog Packers 2

3 When hog runs exceed slaughter capacity, hogs become worthless. Head Daily Hog Slaughter Capacity Increasing Hog Slaughter Capacity Triumph Foods, St Joseph, MO Triumph Foods, East Moline, IL Premium Standard, Milan, MO Olywest, Winnipeg Olywest, Red Deer Maple Leaf, Saskatoon Potential to add 13% to kill capacity 3

4 Hog Cycle U.S. pork production is becoming more stable % change from year ago U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter Quarterly Data,

5 But, U.S. hog prices are still highly variable % change from year ago Terminal Market Barrow & Gilt Price Quarterly Data ELASTICITY The fundamental relationship between hog production and hog price is changing. 5

6 Hog Price Flexibility Quarterly Data % ch T Mkt B&G price / % ch com hog slt In 6 of last 11 quarters, price & slaughter moved in the same direction Cost of Production 6

7 $ Per Live Cwt Cost of Slaughter Hog Production Iowa State University Calculations, Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University Marketing Month U.S. Annual Average Corn Price, $ Per Bushel years years Avg $ Avg $ years 0.50 Avg $ Source: USDA/NASS 7

8 Hog Weights Barrow & Gilt Dressed Weights W eekly F.I. Hog Slaughter Pounds JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 8

9 Barrows & Gilts - Percent Lean average: 54.09% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports International Trade 9

10 Thousand Metric Tons 1400 U.S. Pork Exports was the 14th consecutive record year for U.S. exports U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May Change from year ago Country 000 lbs Percent Japan - 44, % Mexico + 62, % Canada + 7, % S. Korea + 48, % China & HK + 13, % Taiwan + 11, % Russia + 60, % TOTAL +171, % 10

11 $/hog slt 30 Value of U.S. Pork Exports Pork ByProduct : imports down 6.9% & exports up 22.0% Mil. lbs. 300 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent 250 Imports Exports % of U.S. pork production was exported Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 11

12 Mil. head U.S. Hog Imports & Exports Imports Exports hog imports were down 3.7% compared to Growth in U.S.-Canadian Pig Crop (million head) Canada U.S.A During the past decade, 74% of the increase in U.S.-Canadian pig production took place in Canada. Source: USDA/FAS 12

13 Where the Pork from Hogs Born in Canada was Consumed Canada 36.9% U.S.A. 38.7% Elsewhere 24.4% Exchange Rate: Can $ Per US $ Noon on 7/20 in New York: Q1 90 Q1 91 Q1 92 Q1 93 Q1 94 Q1 95 Q1 96 Q1 97 Q1 98 Q1 99 Q1 00 Q1 01 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q

14 imports: slt hogs down 3.7% & fdr pigs down 3.7% Head per mo. U.S. Hog Imports from Canada 600, ,000 Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs 400, , , , Inventory Reports 14

15 Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April All Hogs & Pigs Kept for Breeding Kept for Marketing Under 60 lbs lbs lbs lbs. and over 98.2 Sep-Nov Farrowings Dec-Feb Farrowings Mar-May Farrowings Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined % change from yr. ago JFM99 JAS99 JFM00 JAS00 JFM01 JAS01 JFM02 JAS02 JFM03 JAS03 JFM04 JAS04 JFM05 JAS05 JFM06 15

16 Actual & Predicted Change in Hog Slaughter U.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, % change from yr. ago Actual USDA June Forecast Since Jun 1, slaughter has been 1.5% above the June forecast -10 Jan Fe Mar Apr Ma Ju Jul Au Se Oct No Actual & Predicted Change in Hog Slaughter U.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, % change from yr. ago Actual USDA June Canada Jan Fe Mar Apr Ma Ju Jul Au Se Oct No 16

17 Estimated Gilt Retention & Sow Loss, - GG Cattle & Hog Fax Thousand Head Per Week Gilts Retained Sow Loss 0 '05 Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov Dec '06 Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, $ Per Head Iowa State University Calculations consecutive months of profit, longest since 33 months in Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University 17

18 Why is Growth So Slow? We remember the 1990s Long (impossible) permitting process High construction costs Fewer Canadian pigs Starting from record production Pork Demand 18

19 % change from year ago >> May Change in Hog Demand Base Elasticity = Sep 2002 >> May Sep 2003 >> May Sep 2004 >> May Sep >> May Sep >> May Retail Price of Pork Cents/lb February 2000 was record high Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

20 Hog Prices Terminal Market Barrow & Gilt Price Avg 90s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20

21 BARROW AND GILT NET PRICES Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Basis, Weekly $ per cwt JAN APR JUL OCT U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter Million Head Change Qtr * +2.6% +0.7%. Qtr * - 0.9% +1.4%. Qtr * * - 1.0% +1.8%. Qtr * * +0.9% +3.5%. Year * * +0.4% +1.9% Note: Q has 1 more slaughter day *forecast 21

22 Iowa-Minn Live Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Live Hundredweight * 2007 Qtr 1 $51.64 $41.72* $40-43 Qtr 2 $51.96 $48.30* $43-46 Qtr 3 $49.95 $45-48 $41-44 Qtr 4 $44.56 $41-44 $37-39 Year $49.55 $44-46 $40-43 *actual price prior day purchased Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight * 2007 Qtr 1 $69.79 $56.38* $53-57 Qtr 2 $70.21 $65.27* $58-62 Qtr 3 $67.50 $61-65 $56-60 Qtr 4 $60.22 $55-59 $49-53 Year $66.96 $58-61 $54-58 *actual price prior day purchased 22

23 Forecast Summary Slow increase in farrowings Continued productivity growth Continued increase in pork exports Declining domestic demand Good profits in Breakeven in

24 U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption Retail Weight, Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption Retail Weight, Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Fish Pounds

25 160 Broiler Demand Index 1970= F.I. Broiler Production, Ready to Cook Weight Billion Pounds '02 '05 25

26 F.I. Broiler Exports, Ready to Cook Weight 6 5 Billion Pounds Broilers The first half of was a disaster for the broiler industry. 26

27 BROILER PRICES 12-City Composite, Weekly Cents Per Pound Avg JAN APR Livestock Marketing Information Center JUL OCT WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly Cents Per Pound JAN APR Livestock Marketing Information Center JUL OCT Avg

28 WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES Northeast, Truckload, Weekly Cents Per Pound Avg JAN APR Livestock Marketing Information Center JUL OCT BROILER PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly Mil. Lbs Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS 28

29 BROILER EXPORTS Ready to Cook Weight Mil. Pounds JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/ERS CHICKEN IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month Mil. Pounds Avg JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS 29

30 BROILER EGGS SET Weekly Mil. Eggs Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS BROILER CHICKS PLACED Weekly Mil. Birds Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS 30

31 U.S. F.I. Broiler Production Million Pounds Change Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Year 8,588 8,934 8,939 8,904 35,365 8,937 9,100 8,975* 9,030* 36,042* 9,025* 9,200* 9,210* 9,275* 36,710* +4.1% +1.0%. +1.9% +1.1%. +0.4% +2.6%. +1.4% +2.7%. +1.9% +1.9% Note: Q has 1 more slaughter day *forecast 12 City Broiler Price Forecast Cents Per Pound * 2007 Qtr * Qtr * Qtr Qtr Year *actual price 31

32 Turkeys Turkeys are not chicken Turkey Demand Index 1970=

33 F.I. Turkey Production, Ready to Cook Weight 7 6 Billion Pounds '02 '05 F.I. Turkey Exports, Ready to Cook Weight Billion Pounds

34 TURKEY PRICES Eastern Hens, 8-16 Pounds, Weekly Cents Per Pound Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center TURKEY PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly Mil. Lbs JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center 34

35 TURKEY EXPORTS Ready to Cook Weight Mil. Pounds JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/ERS TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month Mil. Pounds JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS 35

36 U.S. F.I. Turkey Production Million Pounds Change Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 1,328 1,397 1,375 1,354 1,425 1,410* 1,375* 1,445* 1,425* +2.0% +1.6%. +2.0% +1.4%. +2.5% +1.1% Qtr 4 1,405 1,445* 1,475*. +2.8% +2.1% Year 5,504 5,634* 5,720*. +2.4% +1.5% Note: Q has 1 more slaughter day *forecast Turkey Price Forecast Eastern Cents Per Pound * 2007 Qtr * Qtr * Qtr Qtr Year *actual price 36