By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst
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1 @AnneDunford By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst June 2014
2 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 US $/cwt $160 US Fed Steer Price $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Source: Cattlefax
3 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 Cdn $ per cwt $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 W Can lb Steer Jan 2000 to current Source: CanFax
4 Jan-08 Jul Jan-09 Jul Jan-10 Jul Jan-11 Jul Jan Jul Jan-13 Jul Jan-14 Canadian $ per kg Monthly Canadian Retail Beef Price $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 Source: Stats Can
5 SUPPLY AND PRODUCTION
6 P Million Head U.S. Beef Cow Inventory January to 2015P Down 12% since 2006 or 4 mil head, ½ lost during the 2011 & 2012 droughts Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year 2015P +1/2%
7 US Steer & Heifer Slaughter P 15P Source: USDA Jan 1 COF # s started off the smallest since 1997
8 Billion Pounds 28 U.S. Beef Production 1970 to 2014P Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year Total sltr -1.2 mil head Fed -630,000 & Nonfed -570,000
9 P Million Head Canadian Beef Cow Numbers January to 2015P Cow herd 26% smaller since 05 or 1.4 mil head Year Source: Statistics Canada
10 Thousand Head W Canada Beef Heifers for Replacement on Jan 1 40,000 head since 2010 simply doesn t cut it Year Source: Statistics Canada
11 Thousand Head Canadian Slaughter Cow Marketings Slaughter Exports P -6% Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, AAFC Year
12 Thousand Head Source: Statistics Canada, CBGA, AAFC, CanFax Canadian Fed Marketings 1976 to 2016P P Year With a further 2% reduction forecast for 2014 (2.57 mil) we cannot expect much change in fed supply until the cow herd grows. Even if producers make the decision to keep heifers this fall, she won t produce a calf until 2016 which won t impact production until And in the short run, reduces feeder supply.
13 AB/SK Feedlot Bunk Capacity vs # of Feedlots # o f f e e d l o t s t h o u s a n d h e a d Source: CanFax COF Capacity # of lots
14 Billion Pounds 4.0 Canadian Beef Production P Smallest since Str & Hfr carcass wts YTD -35 lbs Source: Canfax, AAFC, Statistics Canada
15 $400 US Cow-Calf Profit/Loss $/head cash costs $300 $200 $100 $0 -$100 -$ Source: Cattlefax
16 P Percent U.S. Heifers as % of Total Feedlot Placements 35% 30% 25% 20% Source: USDA
17 $/cow wintered $400 Alberta Cow-Calf Returns $300 $200 $100 $0 -$100 -$ Source: Canfax Year
18 P 80% 75% Canadian Heifer Slaughter Ratio 15 yr avg - 69% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Source: AAFC, CBGA, CanFax, Stats Canada
19 DEMAND
20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $/cwt $250 $240 $230 $220 $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 US Weekly Choice Cutout Source: USDA
21 ??? Beef is and will be good value to pork thru summer. $225 Beef cut-out / $125 Pork = 1.8:1 ratio
22 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $/kg $17.00 $16.00 Canadian Retail Beef Price Apr +13% from yr ago $15.00 $14.00 $13.00 $ Source: Statistics Canada
23 cents/lb US Ground Beef Price Apr +16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA
24 Billion Pounds 26 U.S. Pork Production Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year YTD hog sltr -4% but tonnage -1% due to heavier wts Experts still expect hog sltr -10% this summer/fall
25 April 2014 Restaurant Index was the strongest since May Fast casual saw the best performance. Beef remains the top protein in foodservice.
26 Demand Index (2000=100) Canadian Retail Beef Demand Index The good news is that high prices do not reduce demand, they reduce the quantity demanded. - Steve Meyer Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, US Beef Demand Study Group
27 TRADE
28 tonnes Canadian Beef Exports % P US Japan Mexico China, HK S Korea Russia Other
29 tonnes 300 Canadian Beef Imports P US Aust NZ Argentina Uruguay Brazil Other
30 $/lb. $2.90 $2.70 $2.50 $2.30 Canadian Boneless Beef Prices (85% cow trim) $2.10 $1.90 $1.70 $ yr ave Source: Canfax
31 # of head in thousands Fed Cattle Exports 353,000 head in 2013, down 18% Steers Heifers
32
33 Cdn $ per cwt $5 Alberta Fed Steer Basis Alberta/Nebraska (Cash to Cash) $0 ($5) ($10) ($15) ($20) ($25) ($30) ($35) 3 yr ave Source: CanFax Week
34 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cdn $ per cwt $2 Alberta 850 lb Feeder Steer Basis ($2) ($6) ($10) ($14) ($18) ($22) ($26) ($30) 3 yr ave 2014 ($34) Source: CanFax
35 Source: GTIS, Global Agritrends Imports = 2% of Chinese consumption
36 PRICES
37 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15P Billion Bushels 16 US Corn Production Crop Year
38
39 Cdn $ per cwt $155 Alberta Weekly Fed Steer Price $145 $135 $125 $115 $105 $ Week
40 J/10 A J O J/11 A J O J/12 A J O J/13 A J O J/14 A $ per head $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ($50) ($100) ($150) ($200) ($250) ($300) Feedlot - Profit/Loss Margin Yearling Steer - Jan 2010 to current Source: CanFax
41 Cdn $ per cwt $200 Weekly 850 lb Steer Price W. Canada $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 Source: CanFax
42 Index Seasonal 550 lb. Steer Calf Index ( ) Index 2014 cash $240 $230 $220 $ J F M A M J J A S O N D $200 $190 $180 $170
43 US $ per cwt $155 $150 $145 $140 $135 $130 $125 $120 $115 $110 Weekly US Fed Steer Price Source: Cattlefax
44
45 Cdn $ per cwt $115 $105 $95 Western Canada D1,2 Weekly Cow Price $85 $75 $65 $ Source: Canfax
46 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 US $/cwt $160 $140 US Fed Steer Price ?? $ ? $120 $100 $ $ $ $60 $40
47 NA cattle numbers remain tight for 3+ years Smaller beef and pork production in 2014 Poultry production slightly larger Consolidation & structure continue to evolve Slowing NA demand but growing global demand Consumers want to know more about their food - transparency Market access is vital for Canadian livestock industry Outside factors create uncertainty & cost: COOL & other trade issues, economic conditions, weather (drought) Expect more volatility & risk lots on the line at these price levels!
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