# Measuring Beef Demand

Size: px
Start display at page:

## Transcription

1 Measuring Beef Demand James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension State Leader Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University

2 A Picture of A Healthy Industry U.S. Cattle Inventory January 1, Year KSU Dept. of Ag Econ Source: USDA & K-State Research & Extension Million Head

3 A Shrinking Industry Responding to a Lack of Profitability 140 U.S. Cattle Inventory January 1, Million Head Current inventory is about 26% smaller than in Year KSU Dept. of Ag Econ Source: USDA & K-State Research & Extension

4 Rising Productivity Is Partially Responsible Pounds Dressed Beef Production. Per Cow Per Year. Beef Production Per Cow 30 Year Trend Source: USDA & K-State Research & Extension. Year

5 But Declining Consumer Demand for Beef Was A Key Factor

6 Beef Market Equilibrium P S P E D Q E Q

7 Beef Market Equilibrium P S demand decline P E P 1 Q E D 1 D Q

8 Goal of Beef Demand Index Provide a simple way of tracking demand changes Provide approximate measure of demand shift, compared to base year & recent years 1980 used as base year Coincides with approximate start of demand decline

9 How Do We Compute Demand Index? Adjust all prices for inflation using an inflation index (Consumer Price Index) Need to differentiate between movement along an existing demand curve & shifts in demand Price changes attributable to changes quantity are simply movement along an existing demand curve

10 Beef Market Equilibrium P S S 1 P E P 1 Movement from P E to P 1 is movement along an existing demand curve, i.e., no demand shift D Q E Q 1 Q

11 How Do We Compute Demand Index? So we first compute an expected inflation adjusted beef price Expected beef price uses price in base year as starting point Use a measure of how responsive beef prices are to changes in quantity to calculate expected price Calculate expected price, if demand was held constant at base year s level, based upon change in per capita beef quantity available since base year

12 Beef Demand Index & Price Responsiveness to Supply Shifts Price Flexibility provides a measure of percentage price change expected given a 1% supply change Price Flexibility used is % per capita supply increase expected to yield 1.49% decline in inflation adjusted price Actual index values dependent on choice of price flexibility, but pattern of demand largely unchanged (Marsh, 2003)

13 How Do We Compute Demand Index? Beef Demand Index equals Actual inflation adjusted retail beef price Expected inflation adjusted retail beef price X 100

14 The Index Documents Demand Decline Beef Demand Annual Retail Choice Beef Demand Index Index Value Year Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce & K-State Research & Extension Price Deflated By CPI, 1980 =100 for Beef Demand Index KSU Dept. of Ag. Econ.

15 Beef Demand Decline Was Devastating What s the linkage between retail beef demand & cattle producers? Retailers demand for wholesale beef is derived from demand for retail beef products Packer demand for fed cattle is derived from demand for wholesale beef products Feedlot demand for calves & feeder cattle is derived from demand for fed cattle

16 Beef Demand Decline Was Devastating Who bore brunt of long-term beef demand decline? Feedlots & beef processors? No, margin operators adjusted to demand reductions Answer: Cow-calf producers How? Lower returns for cow-calf producers Labor Land Other capital Why? Industry size decisions are made by cow-calf producers

17 Index Also Documents Demand Increase Index Value Annual Retail Choice Beef Demand Index Demand in 04 Was Up About 25% from 1998 Level Year Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce & K-State Research & Extension Price Deflated By CPI, 1980 =100 for Beef Demand Index KSU Dept. of Ag. Econ.

18 What Happened in 2005? Index Value Annual Retail Choice Beef Demand Index Beef Demand During All of 05 Decreased About 4% But Demand in 05 Was Still Up About 21% from 1998 Level Year Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce & K-State Research & Extension Price Deflated By CPI, 1980 =100 for Beef Demand Index KSU Dept. of Ag. Econ.

19 Demand Improved Steadily from 98 through 04 Downward Blip in 02 Following 9/11 10% Annual Retail Choice Beef Demand Index % Change From Prior Year % Change From Prior Year. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Year Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce & K-State Ag. Econ.

20 Downturn Got Underway in mid % Quarterly Retail Choice Beef Demand Index % Change From Prior Year 10% % Change from Prior Year 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Year & Quarter Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce, & K-State Ag. Econ.

21 Beef Demand Shifters What s been taking place recently? Demand index does not indicate why shifts occur Possible reasons for recent downturn Low carb diet effect has worn off Larger chicken supplies Consumer s disposable income growth slowing Expect more domestic demand weakness How do we turn this around?

23 U.S. Was A Net Exporter From Net Exports of U.S. Cattle, Beef, & By-Products Billion \$ Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce & LMIC Year Net Exports = Exports - Imports

24 Top 5 Importers Accounted for 91% of U.S. Exports Value (Thousand \$).. \$1,600,000 \$1,400,000 \$1,200,000 \$1,000,000 \$800,000 \$600,000 \$400,000 \$200,000 Top 10 Importers of U.S. Beef Ranked by Value of Imports in 2003 Other Category Consists of All Other Destinations U.S. needs to recapture these markets to regain \$ s s and volume \$0 Japan Mexico S. Korea Canada Hong Kong Source: USDA-FAS Taiwan Russia China Kuwait Egypt Other Destination

25 Beef Imports From Canada Decline 1.2 Annual Beef Imports From Canada. 1.0 Billion Pounds Source: USDA & LMIC, 2006 Projected Year

26 Result: U.S. Imports Falling Below 2005 s Annual U.S. Beef Imports Billion Lbs Year Source: USDA & LMIC, Forecasts

27 Long, Slow Road to Export Recovery 3.0 Annual U.S. Beef Exports 2.5 Billion Lbs Year Source: USDA & LMIC, Forecasts

28 Export Recovery Means Net Beef Imports in 2007 Could Be 1/ s Annual U.S. Net Beef Imports Billion Lbs Year Source: USDA & LMIC, Forecasts

29 Are Retail Demand Changes Reflected At Farm Level? 1% increase in beef demand index increases Slaughter cattle price by 0.49% Slaughter cattle supply by 0.17% Feeder cattle price by 0.12% Feeder cattle supply by 0.34% Source: Marsh, American Journal of Ag. Econ., 2003

30 Are Retail Demand Changes Reflected At Farm Level? Beef Demand Increased about 6% from Boosted consumer spending on beef by \$2.16 billion Estimated producer share about 42% Estimated processor & retailer share about 58% Source: Marsh, American Journal of Ag. Econ., 2003

31 Do Farm Level Demand Changes Mirror Retail Demand Shifts? Spread between retail and farm level prices is variable Variability attributable to variety of factors Volume Capacity utilization

32 Margin Shifts Can Mask Impact of Retail Demand Shifts 120 Farm-To-Retail Marketing Margin Monthly, Inflation Adjusted 110 Cents per Lb. (Retail Weight) Jan- 80 Jan- 82 Jan- 84 Jan- 86 Jan- 88 Jan- 90 Jan- 92 Jan- 94 Jan- 96 Jan- 98 Jan- 00 Jan- 02 Jan- 04 Jan- 06 Source: USDA, Dept. of Commerce, K-State Ag. Econ. Year & Month

33 Retail vs. Farm Level Demand Policy Implications Retail beef demand is primary demand Demand for fed & feeder cattle derived from retail beef demand Retail beef demand shifts are felt at farm level In short run other factors, primarily margin variation, can mask impact of retail beef demand shifts In long run, consumer demand is paramount

34 Index Concerns Quality of retail price data Relying on Bureau of Labor Statistics prices Prices are not volume weighted Omits all of HRI trade

35 Improving The Index Develop Index using scanner based retail price data Included in Mandatory Price Reporting legislation Scanner based prices are volume weighted Better measure of what consumers pay But we need A longer data series Research that documents price flexibility with new prices Still omits HRI trade Longer term is a step in the right direction

36 Is Another Demand Measure Needed? What s the objective? Consumer initiative decisions should rely on consumer level demand information Demand measures at other marketing levels Wholesale Farm Will be driven in part by margin variation

37 Is Another Demand Measure Needed? Demand Indexes do not explain why demand shifted Development of other demand measures will necessitate research/information regarding why demand measures differ Differences will focus heavily on margin variation

### By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst

@AnneDunford By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst June 2014 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 US \$/cwt \$160 US Fed Steer Price \$140 \$120 \$100

### U.S. Beef and Cattle Imports and Exports: Data Issues and Impacts on Cattle Prices

U.S. Beef and Cattle Imports and Exports: Data Issues and Impacts on Cattle Prices Gary W. Brester, Associate Professor Montana State University Bozeman and John M. Marsh, Professor Montana State University

### Livestock Risk Protection Insurance: How Does It Work

Livestock Risk Protection Insurance: How Does It Work James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor & Extension State Leader Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing

### Investor Presentation February 25, 2004

Investor Presentation February 25, 2004 Some of the statements in this presentation may constitute forward-looking information and future results could differ materially from what is included. Please refer

### US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update

US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney Volume XVI, Issue 24 June 29, 2016 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group SteinerConsulting.com 800-526-4612

### SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS ON KFMA FARMS

KANSAS FARM MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION Your Farm - Your Information - Your Decision N E W S L E T T E R Volume 6, Issue 3 March 2012 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS ON KFMA FARMS A flow of funds report, often referred

### Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015

Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015 email your ques-ons to jmintert@purdue.edu Long-Term Ag. Outlook Webinar October 30, 2015 The State of the Agricultural Economy Short-run: The Farm Boom is

### Opportunities and Challenges in Global Pork and Beef Markets

Opportunities and Challenges in Global Pork and Beef Markets Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness Department of Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University Growing Global Demand for

### Trends in the Cigarette Industry After the Master Settlement Agreement

United States Department of Agriculture TBS-250-01 October 2001 Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service Trends in the Cigarette Industry After the Master Settlement Agreement www.ers.usda.gov

### the Business environment of Beef

the Business environment of Beef understanding the Business environment of Beef The farmers and ranchers who raise cattle for beef face many of the same, if not more, unpredictable and forceful influences

### Decision Tools to Make Management and Marketing Decisions. K State Decision Tools Cattle Price Oriented (http://www.agmanager.info/tools/default.

Decision Tools to Make Management and Marketing Decisions Kevin Dhuyvetter and Glynn Tonsor Agricultural Economists Kansas State University www.agmanager.info K State Decision Tools Cattle Price Oriented

### Grid Base Prices and Premiums-Discounts Over Time

Managing for Today s Cattle Market and Beyond March 2002 Grid Base Prices and Premiums-Discounts Over Time By Clement E. Ward, Oklahoma State University Ted C. Schroeder, Kansas State University Dillon

### Review of Canadian Apple Market & Trends

Review of Canadian Apple Market & Trends 215 Mid-Summer Meeting- Canadian Apple Industry Wolfville, NS August 4 th, 215 Farid Makki Sector Development & Analysis Directorate Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

### TOC INDEX. Breakeven Analysis for Feeder Cattle. Alberta Agriculture Market Specialists. Introduction. Why Breakevens?

TOC INDEX Feeder Associations of Alberta Ltd. Breakeven Analysis for Feeder Cattle Alberta Agriculture Market Specialists Introduction Breakevens are specialized partial budgets used to evaluate feeder

### Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

### Understanding and Using Basis for Livestock Producer Marketing Management 1

Understanding and Using Basis for Livestock Producer Marketing Management 1 By: Al Wellman, and Reviewed by Gene Murra Edited by Duane Griffith and Stephen Koontz 2 This Fact Sheet will assist a livestock

### FUTURES TRADING OF LIVE BEEF CATTLE (HEDGING) by Clarence C. Bowen

ESM 481 FUTURES TRADING OF LIVE BEEF CATTLE (HEDGING) by Clarence C. Bowen Cooperative Extension Service Department of Agricultural Economics & Rural Sociology The Ohio State University September, 1972

### THE UPDATE OF THE EURO EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES

September 2004 THE UPDATE OF THE EURO EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE INDICES Executive summary In September 2004, the European Central Bank (ECB) has updated the overall trade weights underlying the ECB nominal

### NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges Sergey Grygoryev Contents: Part 1. Trade

### Washington State Industry Outlook and Freight Transportation Forecast:

Washington State Industry Outlook and Freight Transportation Forecast: Apple Industry Prepared for the Washington State Department of Transportation Freight Systems Division By Selmin Creamer Research

### A Report from the Office of the University Economist. March 2010

ROADMAP TO ARIZONA S ECONOMIC RECOVERY: A PACKAGE TO CREATE JOBS, IMPROVE THE STATE S ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS, AND BALANCE THE BUDGET ADDENDUM: REVENUE FORECAST DETAILS A Report from the Office of the

### Outlook for the 2013 U.S. Farm Economy

Outlook for the 213 U.S. Farm Economy Kevin Patrick Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division Highlights Net farm income in 213 forecast: \$128.2 billion Net cash income in 213

### ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES OF CONSUMER FOOD PRICE INFLATION Prepared for: THE RENEWABLE FUELS FOUNDATION Prepared by: November 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive Summary...4 A. Introduction...4 B. Key

### Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Insurance for Feeder Cattle

Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Insurance for Feeder Cattle Department of Agricultural MF-2705 Livestock Marketing Economics Risk management strategies and tools that cattle producers can use to protect

### Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.

Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.edu Zhengfei Guan Assistant Professor Gulf Coast Research and

### Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report

Missouri Soybean Economic Report State Analysis March 2014 The following soybean economic impact values were estimated by Value Ag, LLC, as part of a Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council funded project.

### Using the Futures Market to Predict Prices and Calculate Breakevens for Feeder Cattle Kenny Burdine 1 and Greg Halich 2

Introduction Using the Futures Market to Predict Prices and Calculate Breakevens for Feeder Cattle Kenny Burdine 1 and Greg Halich 2 AEC 2013-09 August 2013 Futures markets are used by cattle producers

### Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance

Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: On-Line Workshop Outline A series of 12 lectures with slides Accompanying

### 2013-2014 Goat and Sheep Situation & Outlook

2013-2014 Goat and Sheep Situation & Outlook 2013 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference Max Runge, Ag Economist Alabama Cooperative Extension System Auburn University Source: Dr. Greg Ibendahl,

### MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

### Beef Demand: What is Driving the Market?

Beef Demand: What is Driving the Market? Ronald W. Ward Food and Economics Department University of Florida Demand is a term we here everyday. We know it is important but at the same time hard to explain.

### 2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report

### Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

### Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry J.P. Gervais Chief Ag Economist March 2015 @jpgervais Canola Canola is one component of the environment for oil producing crops Growth in demand has supported

### Comparative tables. CPSS Red Book statistical update 427

CPSS Red Book statistical update 427 January 2013 Table 1 Basic statistical data GDP (USD billions) 1 Population (millions, yearly average) Australia 952 1,050 999 1,246 1,500 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4

### Advertising and What We Eat

Chapter 10 Advertising and What We Eat The Case of Dairy Products Noel Blisard Two national programs for dairy advertising, authorized by Congress, have concentrated on advertising for fluid milk and cheese.

### Definitions of Marketing Terms

E-472 RM2-32.0 11-08 Risk Management Definitions of Marketing Terms Dean McCorkle and Kevin Dhuyvetter* Cash Market Cash marketing basis the difference between a cash price and a futures price of a particular

### Wisconsin's Exports A Special Report on Wisconsin's Economy

Wisconsin's Exports A Special Report on Wisconsin's Economy April 2011 Wisconsin Department of Revenue Division of Research and Policy AT A GLANCE Wisconsin's goods exports increased 18.3% to \$19.8 billion

### Abstract. Acknowledgments

Consolidation in U.S. Meatpacking. By James M. MacDonald, Michael E. Ollinger, Kenneth E. Nelson, and Charles R. Handy. Food and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of

### X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

### Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

### HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector

HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector 18 April 216, Brussels, Belgium BACKGROUND NOTE NO. 1 LATEST GLOBAL STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS This background document

### Value of Managing Beef Cattle Genetics

Value of Managing Beef Cattle Genetics Lisa Rees University of Missouri Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics Contact Information: 803 E. Green Meadows, Apt. 102 Columbia, MO 65201 Profile-

### Transition of supply from all industries for consumption and investment (estimate) 1995, ratio compared to the previous year, seasonally adjusted

Trends in supply and final demand (1) Outline of supply for the year 2000 As both private and government consumption increased by 2.1% over the previous year, the overall industry supply intended for consumption

### THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Voluntary - Public Date: 1/29/2013 GAIN Report Number:

### An Analysis of Global Trade in Terephthalic Acid and its Salts

Page 1 12/22/2014 An Analysis of Global Trade in Terephthalic Acid and its Salts The paper summarises the results of an analysis of global trade in Terephthalic Acid. Global trade is obtained by collating

### Households Wages, profit, interest, rent = \$750. Factor markets. Wages, profit, interest, rent = \$750

KrugmanMacro_SM_Ch07.qxp 11/9/05 4:47 PM Page 87 Tracking the Macroeconomy 1. Below is a simplified circular-flow diagram for the economy of Micronia. a. What is the value of GDP in Micronia? b. What is

### Chapter 6 Economic Growth

Chapter 6 Economic Growth 1 The Basics of Economic Growth 1) The best definition for economic growth is A) a sustained expansion of production possibilities measured as the increase in real GDP over a

### Southern California International Trade Outlook 2015-16

Southern California International Trade Outlook 2015-16 LAEDC International Trade Outlook Long Beach, California June 3, 2015 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC Outline U.S. & Global Drivers

### Understanding and Using Cattle Basis in Managing Price Risk

Understanding and Using Cattle Basis in Managing Price Risk by R. Curt Lacy 1, Andrew P. Griffith 2 and John C. McKissick 3 Introduction Understanding the concept of basis is a key element in developing

### S T R A W B E R R Y E X P O R T R E P O R T. Figure 1: California Export Trends

S R A W B E R R Y E X P O R R E P O R he Strawberry Export Report is published annually and reflects trends for total fresh and frozen exports and major export countries. Data is compiled by the U.S. Census

### Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade

Macroeconomic Influences on U.S. Agricultural Trade In addition to the influence of shifting patterns of growth in foreign populations and per capita income, cyclical macroeconomic factors associated with

### Live, In-the-Beef, or Formula: Is there a Best Method for Selling Fed Cattle?

Live, In-the-Beef, or Formula: Is there a Best Method for Selling Fed Cattle? Dillon M. Feuz Presented at Western Agricultural Economics Association 1997 Annual Meeting July 13-16, 1997 Reno/Sparks, Nevada

### Mexican Beef and Cattle Production and Trade: Current Situation and Implications for Coming Years

Mexican Beef and Cattle Production and Trade: Current Situation and Implications for Coming Years Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness Oklahoma State University Evolution of U.S.-Mexican

### First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning

### EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02)

EC2105, Professor Laury EXAM 2, FORM A (3/13/02) Print Your Name: ID Number: Multiple Choice (32 questions, 2.5 points each; 80 points total). Clearly indicate (by circling) the ONE BEST response to each

### The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices

APRIL 2014 VOLUME 3 / NUMBER 7 GLOBAL ECONOMY The impact of the falling yen on U.S. import prices By David Mead and Sharon Royales In the fall of 2012, Japan set forth economic policies aimed at turning

### Economic Assessment of Evolving Red Meat Export Market Access Requirements for Traceability of Livestock and Meat

Economic Assessment of Evolving Red Meat Export Market Access Requirements for Traceability of Livestock and Meat Project Report Submitted to U.S. Meat Export Federation March 2011 Acknowledgements The

Maximizing Your Value-Add: Conducting a Best-in-Class Market Analysis Dr. George L. Harris, President Calyptus Consulting Group, Inc. 781-674-0041; gharris@calyptusgroup.com 93 rd Annual International

Agenda What is a Business Cycle? Business Cycles.. 11-1 11-2 Business cycles are the short-run fluctuations in aggregate economic activity around its long-run growth path. Y Time 11-3 11-4 1 Components

### Monthly Economic Dashboard

RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

### WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019

WORLDWIDE RETAIL ECOMMERCE SALES: EMARKETER S UPDATED ESTIMATES AND FORECAST THROUGH 2019 Worldwide retail sales including in-store and internet purchases will surpass \$22 trillion in 2015, up 5.6% from

### The level of price and inflation Real GDP: the values of goods and services measured using a constant set of prices

Chapter 2: Key Macroeconomics Variables ECON2 (Spring 20) 2 & 4.3.20 (Tutorial ) National income accounting Gross domestic product (GDP): The market value of all final goods and services produced within

### Mid-America Business Conditions Weaken Again: Manufacturing Job Losses Mount as Prices Decline

Interview with Goss can be seen at: https://youtu.be/c4_epgaomg0 For More Information Contact: Ernie Goss, Ph.D., (402) 280-4757 ernieg@creighton.edu Cindy Workman (402) 280-2969 cworkman@creighton.edu

### Figure 1: Real GDP in the United States 1875-1993

Macroeconomics Topic 2: Explain the role of capital investment, education, and technology in determining economic growth. Reference: Gregory Mankiw s Principles of Macroeconomics, 2 nd edition, Chapter

### U.S. Agriculture and International Trade

Curriculum Guide I. Goals and Objectives A. Understand the importance of exports and imports to agriculture and how risk management is affected. B. Understand factors causing exports to change. C. Understand

### Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007

Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Author Name(s): Michael Hardie, Andrew Jowett, Tim Marshall & Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract The UK s trade performance

### Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

### FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales

FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales Fall 2015 FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales 1 Introduction Agriculture is always evolving. Average farm sizes

### Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook LDP-M-229 July 17, 2013 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Kenneth Mathews kmathews@ers.usda.gov Second-Half 2013 Red Meat and Poultry Supplies Higher

### PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased

### Factors Impacting Dairy Profitability: An Analysis of Kansas Farm Management Association Dairy Enterprise Data

www.agmanager.info Factors Impacting Dairy Profitability: An Analysis of Kansas Farm Management Association Dairy Enterprise Data August 2011 (available at www.agmanager.info) Kevin Dhuyvetter, (785) 532-3527,

### Economic Outlook 2009/2010

Economic Outlook 29/21 s Twenty-Eighth Annual Forecast Luncheon Paul R. Portney Dean, Professor of Economics, and Halle Chair in Leadership Marshall J. Vest Director Economic and Business Research Center

### Maple Leaf Pork Randy Powell, President, Maple Leaf Pork

Maple Leaf Pork Randy Powell, President, Maple Leaf Pork 1 Randy Powell President, Maple Leaf Pork President, Maple Leaf Pork since 2001 Background in senior management and marketing/sales positions Progressive

### JBS reports R\$3.6 billion in EBITDA and net revenue of R\$38.9 billion in 2Q15

JBS S.A. (BVM&FBOVESPA: JBSS3; OTCQX: JBSAY) São Paulo, August 13 th, 2015 JBS reports R\$3.6 billion in EBITDA and net revenue of R\$38.9 billion in JBS S.A. announces results for its second quarter 2015

### Steel Industry Executive Summary: July 2016

Steel Industry Executive Summary: July 2016 Highlights From April to May 2016, U.S. imports of steel mill products increased 15.8% to 2.6 million metric tons from 2.2 million metric tons In May 2016, the

### Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food Outlook for 2014

Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food Outlook for 2014 Kevin Grier, Senior Market Analyst, George Morris Centre R. Allan Mussell, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate, George Morris Centre December 2013 Introduction

### On March 11, 2010, President Barack

U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Introduction Exports Support American Jobs Updated measure will quantify progress as global economy recovers. On March 11, 21, President Barack

### A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the Tenth District states SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Tenth THE District ECONOMIC DATABOOK A summary of regional and national economic indicators for the states APRIL 18, 216 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY SUMMARY OF CURRENT TENTH DISTRICT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

### MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.

Chatper 34 International Finance - Test Bank MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) The currency used to buy imported goods is A) the

### 5. Price and Wage Developments

. Price and Wage Developments Recent Developments in Inflation Inflation rose in the December quarter, following a low September quarter outcome (Table.; Graph.). Indicators of underlying inflation increased

### ENVISIONING Council Grove. Strategic Planning for Economic Development

ENVISIONING Council Grove Strategic Planning for Economic Development Economic Profile July-August, 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas State Research and Extension www.ksu-olg.info Introduction

### Livestock Risk Protection

E-335 RM4-12.0 10-08 Risk Management Livestock Risk Protection Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance is a single-peril insurance program offered by the Risk Management Agency (RMA) of USDA through

### HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium

HARD TIMES A Macroeconomic Analysis Presented To: The Financial Advisor Symposium April 16, 2008 1250 S. Capital of Texas Highway Building 3, Suite 600 Austin, Texas 78746-6443 512-327-7200 Fax 512-327-8646

### The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

### percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

### Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 1/11 January 1 January 11 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

### Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 3/11 17 March 11 Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy is produced jointly by the

### ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION IN CANADA A REGIONAL MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION IN CANADA A REGIONAL MULTIPLIER ANALYSIS SUREN KULSHRESHTHA With the Assistance of OTENG MONDONGO ALLAN FLORIZONE Report Prepared For Canfax Research Services Canadian

### ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS

ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF NORTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS \$76 BILLION Agriculture and Agribusiness, including the farming, processing, wholesaling and retailing of food, natural fiber and forestry

Global Investing 2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. 3/1/2013 World Stock Market Capitalization Year-end 2012 18.5% 9.6% United States International: Other Europe United Kingdom Japan Other Pacific

### Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number

Econ 330 Exam 1 Name ID Section Number MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) If during the past decade the average rate of monetary growth

### Weiqiao Textile Announces its 2015 Interim Results

Weiqiao Textile Announces its 2015 Interim Results Seize new opportunities in new normal development phase Continued leadership against the backdrop of industry changes Financial Summary Revenue was approximately

### Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

South Georgia Business Outlook Center for Business and Economic Research Langdale College of Business Valdosta State University Volume 10, Number 4 Fourth Quarter 2014 The South Georgia Business Outlook

### A Primer on Exchange Rates and Exporting WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION EM041E

A Primer on Exchange Rates and Exporting WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION EM041E A Primer on Exchange Rates and Exporting By Andrew J. Cassey and Pavan Dhanireddy Abstract Opportunities to begin exporting

### Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector. - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar

Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar 1 Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar