Eindhoven Airport Catchment MIDT Analysis and business cases

Transcription

1 May 28 Eindhoven Airport Eindhoven Airport Catchment MIDT Analysis and business cases 1

2 Introduction The following analysis is based upon MIDT data for bookings made within the immediate catchment area of Eindhoven Airport (EIN) in 27. For this analysis, this was taken to be 1 hours drive time from the airport, which encompasses the Central and South Eastern regions of the Netherlands, elements of Western Germany and Northern Belgium The data reflects OUTBOUND traffic from the catchment using the following airports as their gateways: - CDG - DUS - AMS - BRU - EIN and MST _ 2

3 EIN Catchment MIDT Market Characteristics 3

4 Catchment Characteristics _ POS Country Data POS Ctry AMS DUS BRU CDG MST EIN Total Pax Netherlands () Belgium Germany Total ,679 Country Netherlands 94% 26% 12% 53% 95% 98% 56% Point of Belgium 5% 3% 86% 31% 1% 1% 29% Sale Germany 1% 71% 2% 17% 4% % 15% Gateway Netherlands 82% 9% 6% 2% 1% % 1% Market Belgium 8% 2% 88% 2% % % 1% Share Germany 4% 9% 4% 2% % % 1% Total 49% 19% 29% 2% 1% % 1% In 27 the catchment generated 1.68 million OUTBOUND passengers captured by MIDT 4

5 Catchment Characteristics TOP O&D Region Markets Market Share Dest Region AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total % Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Europe % 48% 57% 74% 69% 1% 48% Asia % 17% 8% 7% 1% % 17% North America % 13% 11% 3% 6% % 21% Middle East % 5% 12% 2% 9% % 2% Africa % 8% 9% 8% 3% % 7% South America % 3% 2% 2% 1% % 1% Oceania % 4% 1% 3% 1% % 3% Carribbean % 2% % 1% % % 1% Central America % % % % % % % Total ,679 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5

6 Catchment Characteristics Top O&D Country Markets Market Share Dest Country AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total % Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST USA % 56% 32% % 1% % 1% Germany % 23% 16% 5% 56% % % UK % 55% 24% 1% 16% 2% 1% Italy % 43% 44% 1% 12% % % Spain % 42% 41% 1% 16% % % Thailand % 76% 8% 1% 15% % % France % 47% 32% 1% 18% 1% % Turkey % 36% 34% % 3% % % Switzerland % 36% 35% 1% 29% % % China % 66% 22% 1% 1% % 1% Morocco % 49% 46% % 5% % % Israel % 14% 84% 1% 2% % % Austria % 34% 24% % 42% % % Portugal % 48% 47% 1% 4% % % Denmark % 54% 28% % 17% % % Russia % 32% 28% % 4% % % India % 47% 37% 1% 15% % 1% South Africa % 6% 29% 2% 9% % % Indonesia % 83% 9% 3% 5% % 1% Sweden % 55% 29% 2% 14% % % Canada % 72% 17% 1% 9% % 1% Greece % 36% 38% % 25% % % Poland % 41% 38% 1% 2% % % Czech Rep % 5% 25% 1% 24% % % Other % 57% 24% 5% 14% % 1% Total ,679 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6

7 Catchment Characteristics Top O&D Markets Europe Market Share Dest AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total % Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST LHR % 57% 21% 1% 16% 5% % MUC % 22% 16% 1% 61% % % BCN % 54% 35% 1% 1% % % FCO % 57% 35% 1% 7% % % ZRH % 37% 24% 1% 37% % % TXL % 27% 4% 1% 67% % % VIE % 41% 28% 1% 31% % % CPH % 53% 28% 1% 18% % % MXP % 44% 34% 1% 21% % % MAD % 42% 36% 1% 21% % % LIS % 45% 5% 1% 4% % % PRG % 51% 26% 1% 22% % % CDG % 75% % % 25% % % HAM % 23% 22% 2% 53% % % AMS % % 3% 81% 5% % 11% ATH % 43% 46% 1% 11% % % SVO % 4% 21% 1% 38% % % BUD % 47% 34% 1% 18% % % GVA % 38% 52% 1% 8% % % BHX % 4% 34% 1% 24% % 1% ARN % 68% 16% 3% 13% % % NCE % 31% 57% 1% 1% % % WAW % 44% 38% 1% 17% % % HEL % 57% 26% 1% 15% % 1% DUB % 69% 21% % 9% % % MAN % 38% 28% 2% 31% % 1% OTP % 6% 29% 1% 1% % 1% Other % 4% 35% 2% 22% % % Total % 43% 3% 3% 24% % % 7

8 EIN Catchment - PRG MIDT Market Characteristics 8

9 Catchment Characteristics PRG % Market Share POS Country AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Belgium % 8% 87% 1% 5% % % Germany % % 3% 1% 95% % % Netherlands % 81% 7% % 12% % % Total % 51% 26% 1% 22% % % % Market Share Fare Class AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Disc Y % 55% 25% % 19% % % Full Y 1 1 6% 18% 29% 1% 52% % % Prem 1 5% 24% 33% 2% 41% % % Total % 51% 26% 1% 22% % % 2.5 EIN Catchment - PRG Seasonality Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9

10 EIN Catchment - BER MIDT Market Characteristics 1

11 Catchment Characteristics Berlin (BER) % Market Share Dest AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST TXL % 27% 4% 1% 67% % % THF % % 1% % % % % SXF 1 2% % 6% % 4% % % Total % 24% 16% 1% 59% % % % Market Share POS Country AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Belgium % 5% 9% 3% 2% % % Germany % 5% 1% 1% 92% % % Netherlands % 67% 6% % 26% % % Total % 24% 16% 1% 59% % % % Market Share Fare Class AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Disc Y % 28% 17% 1% 54% % % Full Y % 6% 26% 1% 68% % % Prem % 4% 8% 2% 86% % % Total % 24% 16% 1% 59% % % EIN Catchment - BER Seasonality Netherlands Germany Belgium In 27 the catchment generated 1.68 million OUTBOUND passengers captured by MIDT.5. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11

12 EIN Catchment Selected UK Destinations MIDT Market Characteristics 12

13 Catchment Characteristics UK Destinations POS % Market Share Dest Country AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST BHX Belgium % 5% 92% 1% 1% % % Germany % 1% 4% % 95% % % Netherland % 72% 14% 1% 11% % 1% BHX Total % 4% 34% 1% 24% % 1% MAN Belgium % 5% 91% 3% 1% % % Germany % 2% 1% % 97% % % Netherland % 69% 14% 2% 13% % 2% MAN Total % 38% 28% 2% 31% % 1% CWL Belgium % 45% 5% 2% % % 3% Germany % 12% 2% % 84% % 2% Netherland % 95% % 1% 1% % 3% CWL Total % 75% 6% 1% 16% % 3% EMA Belgium % % 99% % % % % Germany % % 1% % % % % Netherland % 68% 31% % % % % EMA Total % 32% 68% % % % % % Market Share Dest Fare Class AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST Total Total AMS BRU CDG DUS EIN MST BHX Disc Y % 46% 33% 1% 2% % 1% Full Y % 19% 8% 1% 72% % % Prem % 7% 7% 2% 21% % % BHX Total % 4% 34% 1% 24% % 1% MAN Disc Y % 43% 26% 1% 28% % 1% Full Y % 2% 24% 4% 71% % % Prem % 13% 54% 5% 28% % % MAN Total % 38% 28% 2% 31% % 1% CWL Disc Y % 75% 6% 1% 16% % 3% Full Y % 95% % 5% % % % Prem % 79% 3% % 7% % 1% CWL Total % 75% 6% 1% 16% % 3% EMA Disc Y % % 1% % % % % Full Y % 52% 47% 1% % % % Prem % % 1% % % % % EMA Total % 32% 68% % % % % 13

14 Catchment Characteristics UK Destinations EIN Catchment - UK Destination Seasonality Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec BHX MAN CWL EMA In 27 the catchment generated 1.68 million OUTBOUND passengers captured by MIDT 14

15 Business Cases 15

16 Route Network The following presentation highlights the business opportunity for Easyjet (U2) to operate services between Eindhoven (EIN) and Berlin (SXF) and Prague (PRG) 16

17 EIN Market Characteristics 17

18 EIN Current Route Network Weekly Capacity Dest Carrier Flights Seats AGP HV ALC HV BGY FR 7 1,323 BUD W CIA FR 7 1,323 DUB FR 7 1,323 FAO HV GRO FR 7 1,323 HAM OL 1 19 KTW W LCY AF MAD FR 7 1,323 MRS FR 7 1,323 NYO FR ORY A PSA FR 7 1,323 STN FR 12 2,268 VLC FR Source: Flightbase Apr 8 18

19 EIN Traffic Development Year AMS EIN RTM GRG MST Total 23 39, , , , , , , , ,129 1,177 1, , ,849 1,451 1, ,821 1,6 EIN Traffic Development Market Share Year AMS EIN RTM GRG MST % 1.% 1.5%.3%.7% % 1.6% 2.6%.3%.7% % 2.1% 2.3%.3%.7% % 2.4% 2.3%.4%.7% % 2.9% 2.2%.4%.4% 1,4 1,2 1, % Annual Growth Year AMS EIN RTM GRG MST Avg % 65% 9% 9% 13% 9% 25 4% 37% -9% 5% 1% 4% 26 4% 2% 4% 21% -4% 5% 27 4% 23% 1% 3% -44% 4% AAGR 5% 35% 16% 9% -1% 5% Source: EU Stat 19

20 PRG & BER Existing Service Provision & Market Characteristics 2

21 Existing Service Provision to BER Weekly Freq Weekly Seats Airport Carrier SXF THF TXL Total SXF THF TXL Total DUS AB ,147 7,147 LH ,14 7,14 DUS Total ,161 14,161 CDG AF ,537 5,537 LH CDG Total ,387 6,387 AMS HV 7 7 1,43 1,43 KL ,852 4,852 AMS Total ,895 5,895 BRU LH ,1 1,1 SN ,463 3,463 U ,92 1,92 BRU Total ,92 3,463 1,1 5,655 DTM AB DTM Total Total ,92 3,463 27,847 32,42 Source: Flightbase Apr 8 21

22 Existing Service Provision to PRG Airport Carrier Freq Seats DUS LH 18 1,2 OK 13 1,755 DUS Total 31 2,775 CDG AF 28 4,247 OK 27 3,84 QS 6 1,116 CDG Total 61 9,23 AMS KL 14 1,442 NE 13 1,937 OK 25 3,624 AMS Total 52 7,3 BRU NE 7 1,43 OK 18 2,358 SN 25 2,56 BRU Total 5 5,97 DTM U2 7 1,92 DTM Total 7 1,92 Total 21 25,98 Source: Flightbase Apr 8 22

23 BER Traffic Development % Annual Growth Airport % Total AAGR 7 v 3 AMS % 11% 22% 22% -9% 11% BRU % 3% -1% 12% 41% 1% DTM % -1% 4% -1% -1% DUS % -2% 11% 9% 7% 6% MST % 33% -1% NRN 95 % -1% Total 1,97 1,194 1,337 1,521 1,451 1% 9% 12% 14% -5% 7% Berlin Traffic Trends EIN Catchment - BER Seasonality NRN MST DTM BRU AMS DUS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DUS BRU AMS Source: EU Stat 23

24 PRG Traffic Development % % Annual Growth Airport Total AAGR 7 v 3 AMS % 5% -1% 11% 7% 6% BRU % 2% 1% 1% 26% 16% DTM % 151% -3% -1% 34% DUS % 15% 22% 14% 6% 14% Total % 17% 13% 1% 11% 13% Source: EU Stat EIN Catchment - PRG Seasonality Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec DUS DTM BRU AMS 1, PRG Traffic Development DTM DUS BRU AMS 24

25 Traffic Forecast 25

26 EIN Market Stimulation Route Existing Mkt Size EIN Mkt Yr 1 % Stim DUB % FCO/CIA 1, % MIL/BGY 1, % BCN/GRO 1, % MAD 1, % EIN Stimulation Chart % Stimulation 26% 24% 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Existing market Size () Source: EU Stat 26

27 EIN PRG & BER Forecast EIN Stimulation Chart 26% 24% 22% 2% % Stimulation 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Existing market Size () BER PRG Existing Mkt Size 27() 1,5 9 Potential Mkt Stim 8% 11% Potential EIN Stimulated Mkt () Yr 1 Maturity Disc 25% 25% Target pax volume () Yr Tgt Pax LF 85% 85% Projected Carrier Weekly Annual Seats () Projected Pax Freq (A/C Size: 156 seats) () Source: EU Stat 27

28 Financial Evaluation 28

29 Sector Operating Costs SXF - EIN Assumptions: The following Sector Operating Costs have been derived from a combination of cost data derived from specific flight plan data (to derive sector block times, fuel consumption and en-route charges) and U2 s 27 annual report where by given cost elements per seat have been transformed into cost elements per block hour hour Sector Operating Cost and Breakeven Analysis 1. Carrier/Service Details Carrier U2 Aircraft type A319 Origin SXF Destination EIN Weekly Freq 7 Avg Fare EUR DOC's Per Sector 5. PVC Per Sector Fuel 1,279 Airport Pax Charge(s). Maintenance 249 Commision. En-route charges Landing Charges Fixed Movement costs Catering/Other CRS Charge Total PVC's... Handling 89 Crew Allowance/Hotac/Cat) 6. Airport Discounts Per Sector/Pax Yr 1 Other Costs 411 Landing Charges Sector Block time: 55 min flight, 1 min taxi = 1:5 min Contingency Total DOC's 3,36 3. ASC's Per Sector Handling Pax Charge 7. Breakeven Load Factor Analysis Fuel Cost taken to be USD 735 per tonne (figure quoted as hedged cost for 28) Lease Cost 27 Insurance Crew Salaries Total ASC's No Discounts Breakeven LF With Discounts 85% 1EUR = USD Total Fixed Costs Per Sector Overhead Cost Breakeven LF 85% Total Fixed Costs 4,93 Source: EU Stat 29

30 Sector Operating Costs SXF EIN Breakeven Breakeven Load Factors Versus Avg Sector Fare Assumptions: Carrier/Service Details Carrier U2 Aircraft type A319 At a planning load factor of 85% the breakeven NETT average fare would have to be EUR 31(excluding govt taxes and other costs passed direct to the passenger If fuel were to cost USD 9 per tonne, 85% breakeven load factor fare moves to EUR 33 per sector Origin SXF Destination EIN Weekly Freq 7 Avg Sector Fare EUR 31 Breakeven LF(%) Vs. Avg Sector Fare 12% Load Factor 1% 97% 94% 9% 87% 85% 8% 6% 82% 8% 77% 75% 4% 2% % Avg Sector Fare Fare Interval EUR 1 Fare B/E LF Equiv Pax % 94% 9% 87% 85% 82% 8% 77% 75% 11,76 17,34 12,77 99,347 97,63 93,637 91,354 87,928 85,644 Source: EU Stat 3

31 Sector Operating Costs PRG - EIN Assumptions: Sector Operating Cost and Breakeven Analysis 1. Carrier/Service Details Carrier U2 Aircraft type A319 Sector Block time: 1:5 min flight, 1 min taxi = 1:15 min Origin Weekly Freq 2. DOC's Per Sector PRG Destination EIN 5 Avg Fare EUR PVC Per Sector Fuel Cost taken to be USD 735 per tonne (figure quoted as hedged cost for 28) Fuel 1,456 Maintenance 288 En-route charges 436 Landing Charges 17 Fixed Movement costs Airport Pax Charge(s). Commision. Catering/Other. CRS Charge. Total PVC's. Handling 89 1EUR = USD 1.53 Crew Allowance/Hotac/Cat) Other Costs Airport Discounts Per Sector/Pax Yr 1 Landing Charges Contingency Handling Total DOC's 3,647 Pax Charge 3. ASC's Per Sector 7. Breakeven Load Factor Analysis Lease Cost 311 Insurance Crew Salaries 596 Total ASC's No Discounts Breakeven LF With Discounts 86% 4. Total Fixed Costs Per Sector Breakeven LF 86% Overhead Cost Total Fixed Costs 4,554 Source: EU Stat 31

32 Sector Operating Costs PRG EIN Breakeven Assumptions: At a planning load factor of 85% the breakeven NETT average sector fare would have to be EUR 34 (excluding govt taxes and other costs passed direct to the passenger If fuel were to cost USD 9 per tonne, 85% breakeven load factor fare moves to EUR 37 per sector Breakeven Load Factors Versus Avg Sector Fare Carrier/Service Details Carrier U2 Aircraft type A319 Origin PRG Destination EIN Weekly Freq 5 Avg Sector Fare EUR 34 Breakeven LF(%) Vs. Avg Sector Fare 12% 1% 97% 94% 91% 88% 86% 8% 83% 6% 81% 79% 77% Load Factor 4% 2% % Avg Sector Fare Fare Interval EUR 1 Fare B/E LF Equiv Pax % 94% 91% 88% 86% 83% 81% 79% 77% 78,989 76,546 74,13 71,66 7,32 67,589 65,96 64,331 62,73 Source: EU Stat 32