The sample includes 692 interviews among landline respondents and 353 interviews among cell phone respondents.
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- Alan Blake
- 7 years ago
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Transcription
1 Interviews with 1,045 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on November 21-23, The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample includes 692 interviews among landline respondents and 353 interviews among cell phone respondents.
2 BASED ON 316 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 194 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 510 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 32. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Mike Pence, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, or Scott Walker. (RANDOM ORDER) Nov Romney 20% Carson 10% Bush 9% Christie 8% Huckabee 7% Paul 6% Ryan 6% Cruz 5% Walker 5% Perry 4% Rubio 3% Kasich 2% Santorum 2% Jindal 1% Pence 1% Portman * Someone else (vol.) 6% None/No one (vol.) 2% No opinion 3% POLL November 21-23, 2014
3 BASED ON 316 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 194 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 510 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 33. And who would be your second choice? FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE (Question 32) (Question 33) Romney 20% 19% Carson 10% 3% Bush 9% 10% Christie 8% 7% Huckabee 7% 7% Paul 6% 12% Ryan 6% 7% Cruz 5% 8% Walker 5% 3% Perry 4% 3% Rubio 3% 3% Kasich 2% 2% Santorum 2% 3% Jindal 1% 3% Pence 1% * Portman * * Someone else (vol.) 6% 2% No first choice 2% N/A No second choice N/A 3% No opinion 5% 3% QUESTIONS 32 AND 33 COMBINED WITHOUT ROMNEY IN LIST OF CANDIDATES Nov July May 29-June 1 May 2-4 Mar 7-9 Jan 31-Feb Bush 14% 8% 12% 13% 9% 8% Carson 11% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Huckabee 10% 12% 11% 10% 10% 14% Christie 9% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% Ryan 9% 11% 10% 12% 15% 9% Paul 8% 12% 14% 13% 16% 13% Cruz 7% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% Perry 5% 11% 6% 8% 11% 8% Walker 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 8% Kasich 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Rubio 3% 6% 8% 6% 5% 9% Santorum 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% Jindal 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Pence 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Portman * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Someone else (vol.) 6% 6% 6% 4% 6% 8% None/No one (vol.) 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 3% No opinion 4% 3% 5% 7% 5% 4% POLL November 21-23, 2014
4 BASED ON 286 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 171 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 457 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/-4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 34. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O Malley, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or Jim Webb. (RANDOM ORDER) Nov July Nov Sept Clinton 65% 67% 63% 65% Warren 10% 10% 7% 7% Biden 9% 8% 12% 10% Sanders 5% N/A N/A N/A Cuomo 1% 4% 5% 6% Patrick 1% N/A N/A N/A Webb 1% N/A N/A N/A O Malley * 2% 2% 2% Someone else (vol.) 4% 6% 6% 4% None/No one (vol.) 3% 2% 3% 5% No opinion 1% 1% 3% 2% POLL November 21-23, 2014
5 BASED ON 286 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 171 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 457 DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/-4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 35. And who would be your second choice? FIRST CHOICE SECOND CHOICE (Question 34) (Question 35) Clinton 65% 17% Warren 10% 13% Biden 9% 36% Sanders 5% 6% Cuomo 1% 6% Patrick 1% 2% Webb 1% 4% O'Malley * 3% Someone else (vol.) 4% 2% No first choice 3% N/A No second choice N/A 6% No opinion 1% 5% QUESTIONS 34 AND 35 COMBINED IF CLINTON WERE NOT IN THE RACE Nov Nov Biden 41% 43% Warren 20% 17% Cuomo 7% 15% Sanders 7% N/A O Malley 4% 6% Webb 3% N/A Patrick 2% N/A Someone else (vol.) 5% 8% None/No one (vol.) 8% 7% No opinion 4% 4% POLL November 21-23, 2014
6 METHODOLOGY A total of 1,045 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage. Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 23% described themselves as Republicans, and 49% described themselves as Independents or members of another party Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with "N/A". POLL November 21-23, 2014
7 Question 32 I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Total Men Women White Non-White Jeb Bush 9% 9% 8% 9% N/A Ben Carson 10% 12% 9% 9% N/A Chris Christie 8% 8% 8% 7% N/A Ted Cruz 5% 5% 4% 5% N/A Mike Huckabee 7% 7% 8% 7% N/A Bobby Jindal 1% 1% 1% 1% N/A John Kasich 2% 1% 3% 2% N/A Rand Paul 6% 9% 3% 6% N/A Mike Pence 1% * 2% 1% N/A Rick Perry 4% 4% 4% 3% N/A Rob Portman * * * * N/A Mitt Romney 20% 15% 25% 21% N/A Marco Rubio 3% 3% 4% 2% N/A Paul Ryan 6% 5% 7% 7% N/A Rick Santorum 2% 1% 2% 2% N/A Scott Walker 5% 8% 2% 6% N/A Someone else 6% 6% 6% 6% N/A None/No one 2% 1% 2% 2% N/A No opinion 3% 4% 3% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.0 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Jeb Bush 9% N/A N/A 9% 8% 9% 9% Ben Carson 10% N/A N/A 13% 9% 9% 11% Chris Christie 8% N/A N/A 8% 6% 9% 7% Ted Cruz 5% N/A N/A 7% 5% 3% 7% Mike Huckabee 7% N/A N/A 8% 9% 7% 8% Bobby Jindal 1% N/A N/A * 1% 1% 1% John Kasich 2% N/A N/A 1% 3% 2% 2% Rand Paul 6% N/A N/A 8% 4% 6% 6% Mike Pence 1% N/A N/A 2% * 1% 1% Rick Perry 4% N/A N/A 1% 6% 5% 3% Rob Portman * N/A N/A * * * * Mitt Romney 20% N/A N/A 19% 17% 22% 18% Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 2% 2% 4% 2% Paul Ryan 6% N/A N/A 6% 6% 7% 6% Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 3% 3% * 3% Scott Walker 5% N/A N/A 6% 5% 5% 5% Someone else 6% N/A N/A 4% 3% 8% 4% None/No one 2% N/A N/A 2% 4% * 3% No opinion 3% N/A N/A 3% 8% 2% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Jeb Bush 9% 4% 11% 7% 9% Ben Carson 10% 7% 13% 6% 13% Chris Christie 8% 8% 9% 11% 6% Ted Cruz 5% 7% 3% 6% 3% Mike Huckabee 7% 8% 6% 8% 6% Bobby Jindal 1% 2% * 1% 1% John Kasich 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% Rand Paul 6% 4% 8% 6% 6% Mike Pence 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Rick Perry 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% Rob Portman * * * * * Mitt Romney 20% 22% 18% 18% 22% Marco Rubio 3% 5% 2% 3% 4% Paul Ryan 6% 3% 10% 6% 7% Rick Santorum 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% Scott Walker 5% 3% 7% 3% 7% Someone else 6% 10% 3% 8% 4% None/No one 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% No opinion 3% 4% 1% 4% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
8 POLL November 21-23, 2014
9 Question 32 I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Jeb Bush 9% N/A 3% 14% N/A N/A 8% Ben Carson 10% N/A 14% 6% N/A N/A 12% Chris Christie 8% N/A 5% 10% N/A N/A 6% Ted Cruz 5% N/A 4% 5% N/A N/A 6% Mike Huckabee 7% N/A 5% 9% N/A N/A 7% Bobby Jindal 1% N/A * 2% N/A N/A 1% John Kasich 2% N/A 3% 1% N/A N/A 1% Rand Paul 6% N/A 8% 4% N/A N/A 8% Mike Pence 1% N/A 2% * N/A N/A 1% Rick Perry 4% N/A 6% 3% N/A N/A 5% Rob Portman * N/A * * N/A N/A * Mitt Romney 20% N/A 20% 20% N/A N/A 18% Marco Rubio 3% N/A 4% 2% N/A N/A 3% Paul Ryan 6% N/A 8% 5% N/A N/A 6% Rick Santorum 2% N/A 2% 1% N/A N/A 2% Scott Walker 5% N/A 6% 4% N/A N/A 6% Someone else 6% N/A 5% 7% N/A N/A 6% None/No one 2% N/A 1% 2% N/A N/A 1% No opinion 3% N/A 3% 3% N/A N/A 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.0 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Jeb Bush 9% N/A N/A 10% N/A 7% 11% N/A Ben Carson 10% N/A N/A 13% N/A 13% 9% N/A Chris Christie 8% N/A N/A 4% N/A 6% 13% N/A Ted Cruz 5% N/A N/A 5% N/A 5% 6% N/A Mike Huckabee 7% N/A N/A 7% N/A 9% 4% N/A Bobby Jindal 1% N/A N/A 1% N/A 1% 1% N/A John Kasich 2% N/A N/A * N/A 3% 2% N/A Rand Paul 6% N/A N/A 9% N/A 4% 6% N/A Mike Pence 1% N/A N/A * N/A 2% * N/A Rick Perry 4% N/A N/A 9% N/A 7% 4% N/A Rob Portman * N/A N/A * N/A * * N/A Mitt Romney 20% N/A N/A 15% N/A 15% 21% N/A Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 2% N/A 4% 2% N/A Paul Ryan 6% N/A N/A 3% N/A 9% 4% N/A Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 1% N/A 1% 2% N/A Scott Walker 5% N/A N/A 4% N/A 5% 5% N/A Someone else 6% N/A N/A 10% N/A 6% 5% N/A None/No one 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A 1% 1% N/A No opinion 3% N/A N/A 4% N/A 2% 4% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
10 Question 33 And who would be your second choice? Base = Republicans with a first choice Total Men Women White Non-White Jeb Bush 10% 8% 13% 11% N/A Ben Carson 3% 3% 3% 3% N/A Chris Christie 7% 5% 8% 6% N/A Ted Cruz 8% 10% 5% 6% N/A Mike Huckabee 7% 7% 7% 8% N/A Bobby Jindal 3% 4% 2% 3% N/A John Kasich 2% 1% 2% 2% N/A Rand Paul 12% 11% 13% 13% N/A Mike Pence * * 1% 1% N/A Rick Perry 3% 3% 4% 4% N/A Rob Portman * * * * N/A Mitt Romney 19% 19% 20% 17% N/A Marco Rubio 3% 2% 5% 4% N/A Paul Ryan 7% 10% 5% 8% N/A Rick Santorum 3% 3% 4% 3% N/A Scott Walker 3% 3% 3% 3% N/A Someone else 2% 3% 2% 2% N/A None/No one 3% 4% 1% 2% N/A No opinion 3% 4% 2% 4% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Jeb Bush 10% N/A N/A 6% 13% 12% 9% Ben Carson 3% N/A N/A 5% 6% 1% 6% Chris Christie 7% N/A N/A 6% 5% 8% 5% Ted Cruz 8% N/A N/A 6% 8% 8% 7% Mike Huckabee 7% N/A N/A 10% 9% 5% 9% Bobby Jindal 3% N/A N/A 5% 2% 1% 4% John Kasich 2% N/A N/A 1% 3% 2% 2% Rand Paul 12% N/A N/A 11% 9% 14% 10% Mike Pence * N/A N/A 2% * * 1% Rick Perry 3% N/A N/A 5% 5% 2% 5% Rob Portman * N/A N/A * * * * Mitt Romney 19% N/A N/A 15% 13% 24% 14% Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 5% 6% 1% 5% Paul Ryan 7% N/A N/A 10% 4% 7% 7% Rick Santorum 3% N/A N/A 4% 3% 3% 3% Scott Walker 3% N/A N/A 7% 5% 1% 6% Someone else 2% N/A N/A * 4% 3% 2% None/No one 3% N/A N/A 1% 3% 3% 2% No opinion 3% N/A N/A 3% 2% 4% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Jeb Bush 10% 11% 11% 8% 13% Ben Carson 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% Chris Christie 7% 7% 8% 6% 7% Ted Cruz 8% 9% 6% 8% 7% Mike Huckabee 7% 6% 7% 8% 6% Bobby Jindal 3% 2% 4% 1% 4% John Kasich 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% Rand Paul 12% 11% 13% 11% 14% Mike Pence * * 1% 1% * Rick Perry 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% Rob Portman * * * * * Mitt Romney 19% 18% 20% 27% 13% Marco Rubio 3% * 5% 2% 4% Paul Ryan 7% 5% 9% 6% 8% Rick Santorum 3% 5% 2% 4% 3% Scott Walker 3% 3% 3% 2% 5% Someone else 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% None/No one 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% No opinion 3% 7% 1% 4% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
11 Question 33 And who would be your second choice? Base = Republicans with a first choice Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Jeb Bush 10% N/A 9% 12% N/A N/A 10% Ben Carson 3% N/A 4% 3% N/A N/A 4% Chris Christie 7% N/A 6% 7% N/A N/A 5% Ted Cruz 8% N/A 8% 7% N/A N/A 10% Mike Huckabee 7% N/A 10% 4% N/A N/A 8% Bobby Jindal 3% N/A 2% 3% N/A N/A 3% John Kasich 2% N/A 1% 2% N/A N/A 1% Rand Paul 12% N/A 13% 11% N/A N/A 14% Mike Pence * N/A * 1% N/A N/A * Rick Perry 3% N/A 2% 4% N/A N/A 5% Rob Portman * N/A * * N/A N/A * Mitt Romney 19% N/A 20% 19% N/A N/A 14% Marco Rubio 3% N/A 1% 5% N/A N/A 3% Paul Ryan 7% N/A 8% 6% N/A N/A 9% Rick Santorum 3% N/A 3% 3% N/A N/A 2% Scott Walker 3% N/A 4% 3% N/A N/A 5% Someone else 2% N/A 2% 3% N/A N/A 2% None/No one 3% N/A 3% 3% N/A N/A 2% No opinion 3% N/A 3% 4% N/A N/A 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Jeb Bush 10% N/A N/A 12% N/A 9% 9% N/A Ben Carson 3% N/A N/A 4% N/A 2% 3% N/A Chris Christie 7% N/A N/A 6% N/A 6% 6% N/A Ted Cruz 8% N/A N/A 9% N/A 10% 9% N/A Mike Huckabee 7% N/A N/A 9% N/A 6% 7% N/A Bobby Jindal 3% N/A N/A 3% N/A 1% 5% N/A John Kasich 2% N/A N/A 1% N/A 2% 1% N/A Rand Paul 12% N/A N/A 8% N/A 6% 15% N/A Mike Pence * N/A N/A * N/A 1% * N/A Rick Perry 3% N/A N/A 4% N/A 3% 3% N/A Rob Portman * N/A N/A * N/A * * N/A Mitt Romney 19% N/A N/A 13% N/A 19% 19% N/A Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 4% N/A 2% 5% N/A Paul Ryan 7% N/A N/A 8% N/A 12% 5% N/A Rick Santorum 3% N/A N/A 3% N/A 7% 2% N/A Scott Walker 3% N/A N/A 2% N/A 6% 2% N/A Someone else 2% N/A N/A 6% N/A 3% 3% N/A None/No one 3% N/A N/A 3% N/A 2% 3% N/A No opinion 3% N/A N/A 5% N/A 3% 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
12 Question 32/33 Q32 - I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Q33 - And who would be your second choice? Base = Republicans Total Men Women White Non-White Jeb Bush 14% 11% 16% 14% N/A Ben Carson 11% 12% 9% 10% N/A Chris Christie 9% 9% 9% 8% N/A Ted Cruz 7% 8% 6% 7% N/A Mike Huckabee 10% 8% 13% 11% N/A Bobby Jindal 1% 2% 1% 1% N/A John Kasich 3% 1% 4% 3% N/A Rand Paul 8% 10% 6% 8% N/A Mike Pence 1% * 2% 1% N/A Rick Perry 5% 5% 5% 4% N/A Rob Portman * * * * N/A Marco Rubio 3% 3% 4% 2% N/A Paul Ryan 9% 8% 10% 10% N/A Rick Santorum 2% 1% 2% 2% N/A Scott Walker 5% 9% 2% 7% N/A Someone else 6% 7% 6% 6% N/A None/No one 2% 2% 2% 2% N/A No opinion 4% 5% 3% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-6.0 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Jeb Bush 14% N/A N/A 11% 12% 15% 12% Ben Carson 11% N/A N/A 14% 10% 9% 12% Chris Christie 9% N/A N/A 10% 8% 9% 9% Ted Cruz 7% N/A N/A 9% 5% 6% 8% Mike Huckabee 10% N/A N/A 11% 11% 10% 11% Bobby Jindal 1% N/A N/A 1% 1% 2% 1% John Kasich 3% N/A N/A 1% 4% 3% 2% Rand Paul 8% N/A N/A 9% 6% 8% 8% Mike Pence 1% N/A N/A 2% * 1% 1% Rick Perry 5% N/A N/A 1% 7% 6% 4% Rob Portman * N/A N/A * * * * Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 2% 3% 4% 3% Paul Ryan 9% N/A N/A 10% 7% 9% 9% Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 4% 3% 1% 3% Scott Walker 5% N/A N/A 6% 6% 5% 6% Someone else 6% N/A N/A 4% 4% 9% 4% None/No one 2% N/A N/A 2% 4% 1% 3% No opinion 4% N/A N/A 3% 8% 2% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.0 +/-5.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Jeb Bush 14% 9% 16% 10% 16% Ben Carson 11% 8% 13% 6% 13% Chris Christie 9% 9% 11% 11% 7% Ted Cruz 7% 10% 3% 10% 4% Mike Huckabee 10% 12% 8% 12% 9% Bobby Jindal 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% John Kasich 3% 4% 1% 4% 1% Rand Paul 8% 6% 10% 7% 9% Mike Pence 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Rick Perry 5% 8% 4% 5% 5% Rob Portman * * * * * Marco Rubio 3% 5% 2% 3% 4% Paul Ryan 9% 4% 14% 8% 10% Rick Santorum 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% Scott Walker 5% 4% 8% 3% 8% Someone else 6% 10% 4% 9% 4% None/No one 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% No opinion 4% 5% 1% 5% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
13 POLL November 21-23, 2014
14 Question 32/33 Q32 - I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Q33 - And who would be your second choice? Base = Republicans Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Jeb Bush 14% N/A 7% 20% N/A N/A 11% Ben Carson 11% N/A 15% 6% N/A N/A 13% Chris Christie 9% N/A 6% 11% N/A N/A 7% Ted Cruz 7% N/A 7% 7% N/A N/A 8% Mike Huckabee 10% N/A 10% 11% N/A N/A 10% Bobby Jindal 1% N/A 1% 2% N/A N/A 2% John Kasich 3% N/A 4% 1% N/A N/A 1% Rand Paul 8% N/A 10% 6% N/A N/A 10% Mike Pence 1% N/A 2% * N/A N/A 1% Rick Perry 5% N/A 6% 4% N/A N/A 6% Rob Portman * N/A * * N/A N/A * Marco Rubio 3% N/A 4% 2% N/A N/A 4% Paul Ryan 9% N/A 11% 7% N/A N/A 9% Rick Santorum 2% N/A 2% 2% N/A N/A 2% Scott Walker 5% N/A 6% 5% N/A N/A 7% Someone else 6% N/A 6% 7% N/A N/A 6% None/No one 2% N/A 1% 2% N/A N/A 1% No opinion 4% N/A 3% 4% N/A N/A 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.0 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Jeb Bush 14% N/A N/A 14% N/A 12% 16% N/A Ben Carson 11% N/A N/A 14% N/A 14% 9% N/A Chris Christie 9% N/A N/A 5% N/A 6% 14% N/A Ted Cruz 7% N/A N/A 6% N/A 6% 9% N/A Mike Huckabee 10% N/A N/A 12% N/A 11% 7% N/A Bobby Jindal 1% N/A N/A 1% N/A 1% 1% N/A John Kasich 3% N/A N/A * N/A 3% 2% N/A Rand Paul 8% N/A N/A 10% N/A 6% 8% N/A Mike Pence 1% N/A N/A * N/A 2% * N/A Rick Perry 5% N/A N/A 9% N/A 7% 5% N/A Rob Portman * N/A N/A * N/A * * N/A Marco Rubio 3% N/A N/A 2% N/A 4% 2% N/A Paul Ryan 9% N/A N/A 5% N/A 12% 6% N/A Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 1% N/A 2% 3% N/A Scott Walker 5% N/A N/A 5% N/A 5% 5% N/A Someone else 6% N/A N/A 10% N/A 6% 6% N/A None/No one 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A 1% 2% N/A No opinion 4% N/A N/A 4% N/A 3% 4% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-8.5 +/-6.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
15 Question 34 I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Base = Democrats Total Men Women White Non-White Joe Biden 9% 9% 8% 7% 10% Hillary Clinton 65% 58% 71% 58% 76% Andrew Cuomo 1% 3% * 1% 1% Martin O'Malley * * 1% 1% * Deval Patrick 1% 2% * 1% 2% Bernie Sanders 5% 7% 4% 7% 3% Elizabeth Warren 10% 11% 9% 14% 4% Jim Webb 1% 1% 1% 1% * Someone else 4% 5% 3% 5% 2% None/No one 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% No opinion 1% 1% * 1% * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Joe Biden 9% N/A N/A 13% 6% 7% 11% Hillary Clinton 65% N/A N/A 63% 60% 67% 62% Andrew Cuomo 1% N/A N/A 3% 5% * 4% Martin O'Malley * N/A N/A * * 1% * Deval Patrick 1% N/A N/A * 1% 1% * Bernie Sanders 5% N/A N/A 6% 5% 6% 5% Elizabeth Warren 10% N/A N/A 9% 13% 9% 11% Jim Webb 1% N/A N/A 1% * 1% 1% Someone else 4% N/A N/A 3% 4% 5% 3% None/No one 3% N/A N/A 1% 2% 3% 1% No opinion 1% N/A N/A * 4% * 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Joe Biden 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% Hillary Clinton 65% 74% 57% 76% 58% Andrew Cuomo 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% Martin O'Malley * * 1% * 1% Deval Patrick 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% Bernie Sanders 5% 4% 8% 2% 8% Elizabeth Warren 10% 6% 13% 5% 13% Jim Webb 1% * 2% 1% 1% Someone else 4% 2% 6% 2% 6% None/No one 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% No opinion 1% 1% * 2% * Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
16 Question 34 I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Base = Democrats Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Joe Biden 9% 9% 9% N/A 6% 9% N/A Hillary Clinton 65% 72% 55% N/A 62% 65% N/A Andrew Cuomo 1% 1% 2% N/A 2% 1% N/A Martin O'Malley * * 1% N/A * 1% N/A Deval Patrick 1% 2% * N/A * 2% N/A Bernie Sanders 5% 2% 11% N/A 8% 5% N/A Elizabeth Warren 10% 9% 11% N/A 17% 6% N/A Jim Webb 1% * 1% N/A 1% * N/A Someone else 4% 3% 6% N/A 2% 7% N/A None/No one 3% 2% 3% N/A 1% 4% N/A No opinion 1% 1% 1% N/A * 1% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-7.0 +/-7.0 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Joe Biden 9% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10% 6% N/A Hillary Clinton 65% N/A N/A N/A N/A 69% 66% N/A Andrew Cuomo 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% N/A Martin O'Malley * N/A N/A N/A N/A * * N/A Deval Patrick 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A 2% * N/A Bernie Sanders 5% N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% 6% N/A Elizabeth Warren 10% N/A N/A N/A N/A 11% 7% N/A Jim Webb 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A * 1% N/A Someone else 4% N/A N/A N/A N/A * 7% N/A None/No one 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 2% 3% N/A No opinion 1% N/A N/A N/A N/A * 1% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.0 POLL November 21-23, 2014
17 Question 35 And who would be your second choice? Base = Democrats with a first choice Total Men Women White Non-White Joe Biden 36% 36% 36% 26% 52% Hillary Clinton 17% 18% 15% 19% 13% Andrew Cuomo 6% 4% 8% 7% 5% Martin O'Malley 3% 5% 2% 3% 5% Deval Patrick 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% Bernie Sanders 6% 6% 6% 8% 3% Elizabeth Warren 13% 11% 15% 19% 4% Jim Webb 4% 5% 2% 3% 5% Someone else 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% None/No one 6% 7% 6% 7% 4% No opinion 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Joe Biden 36% N/A N/A N/A 32% 39% 33% Hillary Clinton 17% N/A N/A N/A 17% 16% 18% Andrew Cuomo 6% N/A N/A N/A 9% 4% 10% Martin O'Malley 3% N/A N/A N/A * 4% 2% Deval Patrick 2% N/A N/A N/A 2% 1% 3% Bernie Sanders 6% N/A N/A N/A 8% 6% 6% Elizabeth Warren 13% N/A N/A N/A 20% 12% 14% Jim Webb 4% N/A N/A N/A 3% 4% 3% Someone else 2% N/A N/A N/A 1% 3% 1% None/No one 6% N/A N/A N/A 6% 6% 6% No opinion 5% N/A N/A N/A 2% 6% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Joe Biden 36% 41% 32% 47% 30% Hillary Clinton 17% 11% 21% 16% 17% Andrew Cuomo 6% 4% 8% 5% 7% Martin O'Malley 3% 6% 2% 6% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 2% 1% * 3% Bernie Sanders 6% 5% 7% 5% 7% Elizabeth Warren 13% 12% 15% 8% 16% Jim Webb 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% Someone else 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% None/No one 6% 7% 5% 3% 8% No opinion 5% 6% 3% 6% 4% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
18 Question 35 And who would be your second choice? Base = Democrats with a first choice Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Joe Biden 36% 38% 33% N/A 30% 38% N/A Hillary Clinton 17% 16% 18% N/A 16% 17% N/A Andrew Cuomo 6% 6% 6% N/A 6% 7% N/A Martin O'Malley 3% 5% 1% N/A 2% 5% N/A Deval Patrick 2% 2% 1% N/A 3% 2% N/A Bernie Sanders 6% 5% 8% N/A 12% 2% N/A Elizabeth Warren 13% 11% 16% N/A 19% 10% N/A Jim Webb 4% 4% 3% N/A 4% 3% N/A Someone else 2% 1% 3% N/A 2% 3% N/A None/No one 6% 6% 6% N/A 6% 5% N/A No opinion 5% 5% 3% N/A 2% 9% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-7.0 +/-7.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Joe Biden 36% N/A N/A N/A N/A 39% 34% N/A Hillary Clinton 17% N/A N/A N/A N/A 15% 16% N/A Andrew Cuomo 6% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 8% N/A Martin O'Malley 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 4% N/A Deval Patrick 2% N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 2% N/A Bernie Sanders 6% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 6% N/A Elizabeth Warren 13% N/A N/A N/A N/A 12% 16% N/A Jim Webb 4% N/A N/A N/A N/A 6% 3% N/A Someone else 2% N/A N/A N/A N/A 1% 2% N/A None/No one 6% N/A N/A N/A N/A 7% 4% N/A No opinion 5% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 5% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.0 POLL November 21-23, 2014
19 Question 34/35 Q34 - I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Q35 - And who would be your second choice? Base = Democrats Total Men Women White Non-White Joe Biden 41% 39% 42% 30% 57% Andrew Cuomo 7% 6% 8% 7% 6% Martin O'Malley 4% 5% 3% 3% 5% Deval Patrick 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% Bernie Sanders 7% 8% 7% 10% 3% Elizabeth Warren 20% 17% 22% 29% 7% Jim Webb 3% 5% 2% 3% 4% Someone else 5% 6% 3% 5% 3% None/No one 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% No opinion 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Joe Biden 41% N/A N/A 43% 31% 42% 38% Andrew Cuomo 7% N/A N/A 13% 12% 4% 12% Martin O'Malley 4% N/A N/A 3% * 5% 2% Deval Patrick 2% N/A N/A 2% 1% 3% 2% Bernie Sanders 7% N/A N/A 8% 9% 6% 9% Elizabeth Warren 20% N/A N/A 19% 29% 18% 23% Jim Webb 3% N/A N/A 3% 2% 4% 3% Someone else 5% N/A N/A 3% 4% 5% 3% None/No one 8% N/A N/A 5% 6% 8% 5% No opinion 4% N/A N/A 1% 5% 6% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-6.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Joe Biden 41% 45% 36% 53% 33% Andrew Cuomo 7% 5% 8% 6% 7% Martin O'Malley 4% 5% 3% 6% 2% Deval Patrick 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% Bernie Sanders 7% 6% 9% 4% 9% Elizabeth Warren 20% 15% 24% 13% 24% Jim Webb 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% Someone else 5% 3% 6% 2% 6% None/No one 8% 9% 5% 3% 10% No opinion 4% 6% 2% 7% 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 POLL November 21-23, 2014
20 Question 34/35 Q34 - I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone else. Q35 - And who would be your second choice? Base = Democrats Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Joe Biden 41% 43% 36% N/A 32% 41% N/A Andrew Cuomo 7% 7% 7% N/A 7% 6% N/A Martin O'Malley 4% 5% 2% N/A 2% 6% N/A Deval Patrick 2% 3% 1% N/A 3% 3% N/A Bernie Sanders 7% 3% 13% N/A 12% 5% N/A Elizabeth Warren 20% 18% 23% N/A 33% 13% N/A Jim Webb 3% 4% 2% N/A 2% 3% N/A Someone else 5% 3% 7% N/A 2% 7% N/A None/No one 8% 8% 7% N/A 6% 7% N/A No opinion 4% 6% 2% N/A 1% 8% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-7.0 +/-7.0 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Joe Biden 41% N/A N/A N/A N/A 46% 36% N/A Andrew Cuomo 7% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 9% N/A Martin O'Malley 4% N/A N/A N/A N/A 3% 4% N/A Deval Patrick 2% N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% 2% N/A Bernie Sanders 7% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5% 9% N/A Elizabeth Warren 20% N/A N/A N/A N/A 19% 20% N/A Jim Webb 3% N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% 3% N/A Someone else 5% N/A N/A N/A N/A 2% 7% N/A None/No one 8% N/A N/A N/A N/A 9% 6% N/A No opinion 4% N/A N/A N/A N/A 4% 4% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.0 POLL November 21-23, 2014
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Monday, February 29 at 6:00 a.m.
Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on February 24-27, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, December 23 at 4:00 p.m.
Interviews with 1,018 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on December 17-21, 2015. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage
Walker, Clinton lead New Hampshire Primaries
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 15, 2015 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF
FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, AUGUST 11 AT 6 AM
Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 5-7, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
TRUMP TOPS REPUBLICAN PACK BY WIDE MARGIN, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; BUT DEMS TRUMP TRUMP IN GENERAL ELECTION
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In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down
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EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, May 4 at 6:00 a.m.
Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on April 28 May 1, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage
How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire Poll of 1,037 Adults
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NEW HAMPSHIRE: TRUMP, SANDERS HOLD LEADS
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Sunday, 7, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, APRIL 1 AT 6 AM
Interviews with 1,023 adult Americans conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on March 11-13, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3
NATIONAL: GOP ALL OVER THE 2016 MAP
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Released: Tuesday, December 16, 2014 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858
IOWA: TRUMP TAKES CAUCUS LEAD
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 27, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS LEAD
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, August 3, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
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NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS NATIONAL LEAD
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THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,
SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP LEADS, CARSON 2 nd
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NATIONAL: HOUSE SPEAKERSHIP SHADOWS GOP 2016
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, 20, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
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Center for Public Opinion Dr. Joshua J. Dyck and Dr. Francis Talty, Co-Directors http://www.uml.edu/polls @UML_CPO UMass Lowell/7NEWS Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 2 Survey produced by
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The 2016 Presidential Race April 30- May 3, 2015
The 2016 Presidential Race April 30- May 3, 2015 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Tuesday, May 5, 2015 6:30 pm EDT Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush top the list of potential candidates
NEW HAMPSHIRE: TRUMP LEADS, BUSH SECOND
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IOWA: CARSON, TRUMP TIE FOR LEAD
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TRUMP IS TOPS AS CLINTON DROPS IN CONNECTICUT PRIMARIES, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BIDEN IS TOP VOTE-GETTER IN GENERAL ELECTION
Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 13, 2015 TRUMP IS TOPS AS CLINTON DROPS IN CONNECTICUT PRIMARIES, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BIDEN
Trump Gains Yet Shows Vulnerability in a Crowded, Contentious GOP Race
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IOWA: CRUZ TAKES CAUCUS LEAD
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Iowa State Poll. Page 1
Iowa State Poll Project: 151101 N Size: 641 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 4% Topline Report November 10-16, 2015 F3B Question Response Frequency Percentage In the presidential caucus in your state
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Maurice Carroll, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5334 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 10, 2015 NEW JERSEY VOTERS
Group Unweighted N Plus or minus Total sample 5,113 2.0 percentage points
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Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 1, 2016 FIRST-TIMERS PUT
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Post-Debate Overnight Poll Finds Trump Still Leading Pack; Carly Fiorina Winner of Debates
NBC News Online Survey: Public Opinion on Republican Debates Embargoed for release Sunday, August 9, 2015 at 6:30 PM Post-Debate Overnight Poll Finds Trump Still Leading Pack; Carly Fiorina Winner of Debates
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 New Hampshire Questionnaire. Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
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THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll
THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,
November 2015 Winthrop Poll of SC Democratic Presidential Primary Likely Voters
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Trump Hits a New High in the GOP Race; Against Clinton, it s Outsider vs. Experience
ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: GOP Election EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 12:01 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 Trump Hits a New High in the GOP Race; Against Clinton, it s Outsider vs. Experience Donald Trump
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WALKER HAS STRONG EARLY LEAD IN IOWA GOP CAUCUS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CONSERVATIVE BASE WITH LARGE DOSE OF TEA PARTY
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 25, 2015 WALKER HAS STRONG
October 19, 2015 Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director Department of Public Relations (904) 620-2192
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THE DOCTOR IS IN AS CARSON TIES TRUMP IN GOP RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; CARSON TOPS CLINTON BY 10 POINTS IN GENERAL ELECTION
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Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 22, 2015 HALF OF U.S. VOTERS
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, 21, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
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Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, March 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769
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