FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, AUGUST 11 AT 6 AM
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- Beryl McGee
- 8 years ago
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1 Interviews with 1,008 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 5-7, The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 930 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points). The sample includes 808 interviews among landline respondents and 200 interviews among cell phone respondents. FOR RELEASE: THURSDAY, AUGUST 11 AT 6 AM
2 BASED ON 449 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 19. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (RANDOM ORDER) Aug. 5-7 July Romney 17% 16% Perry 15% 14% Giuliani 12% 13% Palin 12% 13% Paul 12% 8% Bachmann 7% 12% Gingrich 5% 4% Cain 4% 6% Huntsman 4% 1% Pawlenty 2% 3% Santorum 2% 2% Johnson * * McCotter * * Someone else (vol.) 2% 1% None/ No one (vol.) 4% 8% No opinion 2% 1% POLL August 5-7, 2011
3 BASED ON 449 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS. 19. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else (RANDOM ORDER) 20. And who would be your second choice? 21. And who would be your third choice? HORSE RACE WITHOUT RUDY GIULIANI OR SARAH PALIN Aug. 5-7 July Romney 23% 22% Perry 18% 17% Paul 14% 12% Bachmann 9% 14% Gingrich 8% 5% Cain 5% 7% Huntsman 5% 1% Pawlenty 3% 4% Santorum 3% 2% Johnson * * McCotter * * Someone else (vol.) 2% 3% None/ No one (vol.) 5% 10% No opinion 4% 2% Data indicates the second choice for respondents who chose Giuliani or Palin as their first choice, and indicates the third choice for respondents who chose both Giuliani and Palin as their first and second choices. POLL August 5-7, 2011
4 QUESTIONS 23 THROUGH 32 ROTATED. NAMES OF CANDIDATES WERE READ IN RANDOM ORDER. 23/24. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Michele Bachmann were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Bachman, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? Neither Other No Obama Bachmann (vol.) (vol.) Opinion Registered Voters August 5-7, % 45% 3% * 1% All Respondents August 5-7, % 45% 3% 1% 1% 25/26. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Giuliani, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? Neither Other No Obama Giuliani (vol.) (vol.) Opinion Registered Voters August 5-7, % 51% 3% * * All Respondents August 5-7, % 51% 3% * * 27/28. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Sarah Palin were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Palin, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? Neither Other No Obama Palin (vol.) (vol.) Opinion Registered Voters August 5-7, % 41% 4% * * Apr. 29-May 1, % 38% 2% 1% * Oct , % 44% 4% * * Apr. 9-11, % 42% 3% * * All Respondents August 5-7, % 40% 5% 1% * Apr. 29-May 1, % 38% 2% 1% * Oct , % 42% 3% * * Apr. 9-11, % 40% 2% * * POLL August 5-7, 2011
5 29/30. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Perry were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Perry, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? Neither Other No Obama Perry (vol.) (vol.) Opinion Registered Voters August 5-7, % 46% 3% * * All Respondents August 5-7, % 45% 3% 1% 1% 31/32. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- Obama, the Democrat, or Romney, the Republican? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? Neither Other No Obama Romney (vol.) (vol.) Opinion Registered Voters August 5-7, % 48% 2% * * Apr. 29-May 1, % 43% 2% 1% * Oct , % 50% 3% * 1% Apr. 9-11, % 45% 1% * * All Respondents August 5-7, % 47% 3% 1% * Apr. 29-May 1, % 42% 2% 1% * Oct , % 48% 3% * 1% Apr. 9-11, % 43% 2% * * POLL August 5-7, 2011
6 Question 19 Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Total Men Women White Non-White Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% 7% 3% 6% N/A Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% 10% 15% 12% N/A Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% 17% 5% 9% N/A Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% 2% 2% 2% N/A Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% 12% 22% 18% N/A Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% 3% 1% 3% N/A MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% 9% 4% 7% N/A Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% 4% 4% 3% N/A Businessman Herman Cain 4% 5% 3% 3% N/A Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% 12% 11% 13% N/A Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * * * * N/A MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * * 1% * N/A Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% 13% 16% 15% N/A Someone else 2% 2% 3% 2% N/A None/no one 4% 2% 7% 4% N/A No opinion 2% 2% 3% 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.5 +/-7.0 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% N/A N/A 7% 9% 3% 8% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% N/A N/A 16% 12% 11% 14% Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% N/A N/A 8% 4% 16% 7% Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% N/A N/A 3% 3% 1% 3% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% N/A N/A 14% 28% 14% 20% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 2% 1% 2% 2% MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% N/A N/A 8% 11% 4% 10% Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% N/A N/A 7% * 3% 4% Businessman Herman Cain 4% N/A N/A 8% 2% 3% 5% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% N/A N/A 7% 3% 17% 5% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * N/A N/A * * * * MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * N/A N/A * * 1% * Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% N/A N/A 11% 21% 14% 15% Someone else 2% N/A N/A 2% 1% 3% 2% None/no one 4% N/A N/A 4% 1% 5% 3% No opinion 2% N/A N/A 2% 3% 2% 2% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-7.5 +/-8.5 +/-5.5 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% 9% 3% N/A 4% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% 15% 13% N/A 8% Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% 16% 10% N/A 10% Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% 1% 3% N/A 3% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% 15% 17% N/A 18% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% 2% 3% N/A 2% MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% 4% 8% N/A 7% Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% 1% 5% N/A 6% Businessman Herman Cain 4% 5% 3% N/A 5% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% 13% 11% N/A 11% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * * * N/A * MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * 1% * N/A * Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% 9% 18% N/A 17% Someone else 2% 6% * N/A 2% None/no one 4% 1% 4% N/A 4% No opinion 2% 2% 2% N/A 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-8.0 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 POLL August 5-7, 2011
7 Question 19 Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in After I read all the names, please tell me which candidate you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2012, or if you would support someone else. Base = Republicans Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% N/A 6% 4% N/A N/A 3% Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% N/A 9% 15% N/A N/A 11% Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% N/A 14% 10% N/A N/A 11% Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% N/A 3% 1% N/A N/A 2% Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% N/A 16% 17% N/A N/A 17% Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% N/A 2% 2% N/A N/A 3% MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% N/A 7% 6% N/A N/A 8% Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% N/A 4% 4% N/A N/A 3% Businessman Herman Cain 4% N/A 6% 3% N/A N/A 4% Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% N/A 13% 10% N/A N/A 10% Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * N/A * * N/A N/A * MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * N/A * 1% N/A N/A * Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% N/A 7% 21% N/A N/A 19% Someone else 2% N/A 5% * N/A N/A 3% None/no one 4% N/A 4% 4% N/A N/A 3% No opinion 2% N/A 3% 2% N/A N/A 3% Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% N/A N/A 7% N/A N/A 5% N/A Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% N/A N/A 16% N/A N/A 11% N/A Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% N/A N/A 17% N/A N/A 10% N/A Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% N/A N/A 16% N/A N/A 19% N/A Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% N/A N/A 1% N/A N/A 2% N/A MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% N/A N/A 3% N/A N/A 6% N/A Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% N/A N/A 4% N/A N/A 3% N/A Businessman Herman Cain 4% N/A N/A 3% N/A N/A 3% N/A Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% N/A N/A 4% N/A N/A 13% N/A Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * N/A N/A * N/A N/A * N/A MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * N/A N/A * N/A N/A * N/A Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% N/A N/A 21% N/A N/A 16% N/A Someone else 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A 3% N/A None/no one 4% N/A N/A 4% N/A N/A 3% N/A No opinion 2% N/A N/A 2% N/A N/A 3% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-7.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Frm Speaker Hse Newt Gingrich 5% 5% 5% N/A Frm AK Gov Sarah Palin 12% 11% 13% N/A Teas Congressman Ron Paul 12% 12% 12% N/A Frm MN Gov Tim Pawlenty 2% 3% 1% N/A Frm MA Gov Mitt Romney 17% 15% 18% N/A Frm PA Sen Rick Santorum 2% 1% 3% N/A MN Cong Michele Bachmann 7% 11% 3% N/A Frm Utah Gov Jon Huntsman 4% 4% 2% N/A Businessman Herman Cain 4% 4% 3% N/A Frm NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani 12% 4% 20% N/A Frm NM Gov Gary Johnson * * * N/A MI Cong Thaddeus McCotter * * 1% N/A Texas Governor Rick Perry 15% 20% 9% N/A Someone else 2% 2% 3% N/A None/no one 4% 2% 5% N/A No opinion 2% 3% 2% N/A Sampling Error +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-8.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
8 Question 23/24 Q23. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Michele Bachmann were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? Q24. As of today, do you lean more toward --? Base = Total Sample Total Men Women White Non-White Obama/Lean Obama 51% 50% 52% 40% 77% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 45% 45% 54% 22% Neither 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion 1% 1% * 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Obama/Lean Obama 51% 52% 50% 55% 45% 51% 51% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 47% 43% 41% 51% 45% 45% Neither 3% 1% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% Other 1% * 2% * * 1% * No opinion 1% * 2% * 1% 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Obama/Lean Obama 51% 58% 47% 51% 51% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 39% 49% 45% 45% Neither 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion 1% * 1% * 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Obama/Lean Obama 51% 83% 47% 13% 77% 65% 23% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 16% 45% 86% 20% 32% 72% Neither 3% 1% 6% 1% 1% 3% 3% Other 1% * 1% * 2% * * No opinion 1% 1% 1% * * * 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Obama/Lean Obama 51% 53% 52% 49% 52% 60% 46% 44% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 44% 45% 48% 40% 34% 50% 53% Neither 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 4% 2% 2% Other 1% * * * 2% 1% * * No opinion 1% * * 1% 1% * 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Obama/Lean Obama 51% 15% 49% 82% Bachmann/Lean Bachmann 45% 81% 46% 15% Neither 3% 1% 4% 2% Other 1% 1% 1% * No opinion 1% 2% * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
9 Question 25/26 Q25. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? Q26. As of today, do you lean more toward --? Base = Total Sample Total Men Women White Non-White Obama/Lean Obama 46% 42% 50% 35% 73% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 53% 48% 61% 26% Neither 3% 5% 2% 4% 1% Other * * * * * No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Obama/Lean Obama 46% 53% 37% 52% 42% 45% 48% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 47% 57% 46% 53% 52% 49% Neither 3% 1% 6% 2% 4% 3% 3% Other * * * * * * * No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Obama/Lean Obama 46% 55% 41% 49% 44% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 43% 55% 48% 53% Neither 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% Other * * * * * No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Obama/Lean Obama 46% 80% 41% 8% 75% 57% 20% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 19% 53% 90% 25% 40% 75% Neither 3% 1% 5% 2% 1% 2% 5% Other * * * * * * * No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Obama/Lean Obama 46% 47% 43% 45% 51% 57% 43% 38% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 52% 55% 51% 44% 40% 53% 58% Neither 3% 1% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% Other * * * * * * * * No opinion * * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Obama/Lean Obama 46% 14% 45% 73% Giuliani/Lean Giuliani 51% 80% 52% 24% Neither 3% 6% 3% 2% Other * * * * No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
10 Question 27/28 Q27. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Sarah Palin were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? Q28. As of today, do you lean more toward --? Base = Total Sample Total Men Women White Non-White Obama/Lean Obama 54% 49% 59% 44% 81% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 44% 36% 50% 17% Neither 5% 5% 4% 6% 2% Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Obama/Lean Obama 54% 63% 50% 58% 45% 56% 52% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 31% 43% 39% 51% 37% 44% Neither 5% 6% 5% 3% 3% 6% 3% Other 1% * 2% * 1% 1% * No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Obama/Lean Obama 54% 61% 51% 51% 57% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 35% 43% 43% 38% Neither 5% 3% 6% 5% 4% Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Obama/Lean Obama 54% 88% 48% 19% 82% 69% 25% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 11% 41% 80% 13% 26% 70% Neither 5% 1% 9% 1% 2% 6% 5% Other 1% * 1% 1% 2% * * No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Obama/Lean Obama 54% 61% 50% 51% 58% 68% 48% 45% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 34% 45% 44% 35% 26% 45% 53% Neither 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 2% Other 1% * * * 2% 1% * 1% No opinion * * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Obama/Lean Obama 54% 13% 56% 86% Palin/Lean Palin 40% 82% 37% 11% Neither 5% 5% 6% 3% Other 1% * 1% * No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
11 Question 29/30 Q29. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rick Perry were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? Q30. As of today, do you lean more toward --? Base = Total Sample Total Men Women White Non-White Obama/Lean Obama 51% 50% 51% 39% 80% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 44% 46% 55% 20% Neither 3% 4% 3% 5% * Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion 1% 1% * 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Obama/Lean Obama 51% 55% 48% 54% 43% 51% 50% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 42% 46% 42% 51% 44% 46% Neither 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% Other 1% * 2% * * 1% * No opinion 1% 1% 1% * 1% 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Obama/Lean Obama 51% 59% 46% 50% 51% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 37% 50% 45% 44% Neither 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% Other 1% 1% * 1% * No opinion 1% * 1% * 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Obama/Lean Obama 51% 83% 46% 11% 78% 64% 22% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 16% 46% 86% 19% 32% 72% Neither 3% 1% 6% 1% 1% 2% 5% Other 1% * 1% 1% 2% 1% * No opinion 1% * 1% 1% * 1% 1% Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Obama/Lean Obama 51% 52% 49% 49% 53% 61% 48% 41% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 46% 46% 48% 37% 35% 48% 55% Neither 3% 2% 4% 2% 6% 3% 3% 3% Other 1% * * * 2% 1% * 1% No opinion 1% * * 1% 1% 1% 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Obama/Lean Obama 51% 15% 50% 80% Perry/Lean Perry 45% 80% 45% 17% Neither 3% 4% 4% 2% Other 1% * 1% * No opinion 1% 1% 1% * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
12 Question 31/32 Q31. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for --? Q32. As of today, do you lean more toward --? Base = Total Sample Total Men Women White Non-White Obama/Lean Obama 49% 43% 54% 38% 75% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 51% 44% 58% 22% Neither 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% Other 1% 1% * * 1% No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-4.5 +/-4.5 +/-3.5 +/ Under 50 and Total Older Obama/Lean Obama 49% 55% 46% 53% 39% 50% 47% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 44% 47% 45% 57% 45% 50% Neither 3% 1% 6% 2% 3% 4% 2% Other 1% 1% 1% * 1% 1% * No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-8.5 +/-7.0 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.0 Under $50K No Attended Total $50K or more College College Obama/Lean Obama 49% 56% 45% 48% 49% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 41% 51% 48% 47% Neither 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Other 1% * 1% 1% 1% No opinion * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-3.5 Demo- Indep- Repub- Lib- Mod- Conser- Total crat endent lican eral erate vative Obama/Lean Obama 49% 87% 41% 10% 78% 60% 21% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 11% 53% 89% 18% 37% 74% Neither 3% 1% 6% * 3% 2% 4% Other 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 1% No opinion * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-4.5 +/-6.0 +/-7.5 +/-5.0 +/-4.5 North Mid- Sub- Total east west South West Urban urban Rural Obama/Lean Obama 49% 49% 47% 49% 51% 58% 45% 41% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 50% 50% 48% 40% 37% 52% 56% Neither 3% * 2% 3% 8% 5% 1% 3% Other 1% 1% 1% * 1% * 1% * No opinion * * * * * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-6.5 +/-5.5 +/-4.5 +/-6.5 Tea Pty Tea Pty Tea Pty Total Support Neutral Oppose Obama/Lean Obama 49% 13% 47% 79% Romney/Lean Romney 47% 84% 48% 17% Neither 3% 2% 4% 2% Other 1% * * 1% No opinion * * * * Sampling Error +/-3.0 +/-6.0 +/-5.0 +/-5.0 POLL August 5-7, 2011
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