Trump Continues Big Michigan Lead (Trump 39% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 14% - Kasich 12%)

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 2, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell Trump Continues Big Michigan Lead (Trump 39% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 14% - Kasich 12%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Donald Trump (39%) continues to lead Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (19%), Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (14%), Ohio Governor John Kasich (12%), and Dr. Ben Carson (9%) while 2% are for someone else and 7% are undecided according to the latest Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit - Michigan Poll conducted last night before results of the Super Tuesday Caucuses were known. The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 679 likely March 8, 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications on March 1, 2016 and has a Margin of Error of + or 3.76% at the 95% level of confidence. However, the race changed today with the announcement by Dr. Ben Carson that he will not participate in the FOX News Channel debate Thursday night in Detroit because he cannot see a path forward. But, Carson did not suspend his campaign. Since we asked voters their second choice, we can get an idea as to who might benefit from Carson s decision. Rubio would get 29%, Kasich 22%, Cruz 24%, and Trump 9% of Carson s vote, Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said. If you allocate the Carson voters based on their second choice, Trump would still have 39%, Rubio would move up from 19% to 21%, Cruz would move up from 14% to 17%, Kasich would move up from 12% to 13%, those voting for other candidates would stay at 2% and undecided would go to 8%. The race would narrow from a 20% Trump lead to an 18% Trump lead, but it would not change the race very much, Mitchell said. Before a more thorough breakout by demographics, there was some key information in the poll: Trump continues to be stronger with men (42%) than women (35%), but Trump has dropped 5% with men since last week and the week before when he was at 47%. His support remains the same with women.

2 Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 2 of 3 Sixty-one percent of Trump voters strongly agree that they are mad as hell and they won t take it anymore. Supporters of none of the other candidates reach more than 50% strong agreement on that statement. Second are Cruz supporters (41%). Clearly, the angry voters support these two candidates. Voters are solidifying behind their candidates. Trump (84%) and Cruz (79%) are also the two candidates whose supporters say they will definitely vote for them. About two-ofthree Carson s voters (67%), Rubio voters (64%) and Kasich voters (63%) are definitely voting for them. We asked voters if they would identify themselves as Evangelical Christians to see who is winning with that demographic group in Michigan. Trump (33%) leads both Cruz (22%) and Rubio (20%) with that group. We also wanted to see if the disagreement Trump had with Pope Francis would impact Trump s support with Roman Catholics and found that it clearly did not. Trump (44%) leads Rubio (23%) Kasich (13%) and Cruz (10%) with Catholics. Trump (44%) is strongest with non-church goers and weakest with Protestants (34% of the vote). The following data show results by demographics: By age: Among year olds it is Trump (45%), Rubio (21%), Cruz (18%), Kasich (8%), and Carson (3%). Among year olds it is Trump (28%), Rubio (21%), Cruz (15%), Kasich (10%), and Carson (16%). Among year olds it is Trump (42%), Cruz (15%), Rubio (18%), Kasich (9%), and Carson (11%). Among year olds it is Trump (38%), Rubio (22%), Cruz (11%), Kasich (15%), and Carson (6%). Among 70 and older it is Trump (40%), Rubio (15%), Kasich (13%), Cruz (13%), and Carson (6%). By gender: Among men it is Trump (42%), Cruz (18%), Rubio (15%), Kasich (11%), and Carson (6%). Among women it is Trump (35%) Rubio (23%), Cruz (11%), Kasich (12%), and Carson (11%). By area: In Wayne County, it is Trump (45%) Rubio (19%), Kasich (15%), Cruz (11%), and Carson (6%). In Oakland, it is Trump (43%), Cruz (27%), Rubio (23%), Kasich (9%), and Carson (2%). o Trump is up, Rubio the same, Cruz has dropped almost 20%, Kasich has doubled his percentage of the vote, and Carson has dropped. In Macomb, it is Trump (52%) Kasich (8%), Rubio (6%), Cruz (11%), and Carson (3%). o Trump is up 2%, Rubio and Kasich have dropped in half, Cruz is up 1% and Carson up 9%. In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, it is Trump (43%), Rubio (18%), Cruz (14%), Carson (8%) and Kasich (6%), o Trump is down 3%, Kasich is down 14%, Rubio is up 1%, and Cruz is up 3%.

3 Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Republicans Page 3 of 3 In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, it is Trump (34%), Rubio (18%), Kasich (10%), Carson (8%), and Cruz (16%). o Trump is down 9%, Rubio is up 4%, Cruz is up 6%, Kasich is down 4% and Carson down 3% since last week. In West Michigan, it is Trump (28%), Rubio (22%), Cruz (16%), Carson (13%), and Kasich (12%). o Trump is down 1%, Rubio is down 7%, Cruz is down 1%, Kasich is up 4%, and Carson down 2% since last week. In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, it is Trump (39%), Cruz (19%), Rubio (13%), Kasich (10%) and Carson (9%). o Trump is down 9%, Rubio is down 3%, Cruz is up 6%, Carson is up 2%, Trump continues to hold a strong lead in Michigan. Although he dropped two percent since last week, he still remains ahead by 20% because even with Carson not moving forward, the other three opponents have strong groups of supporters and no one else seems to be withdrawing before the Michigan Primary next Tuesday, Mitchell concluded. Methodology: Mitchell Research & Communications used a sample of likely voters in the November 2016 Michigan General Election. Our goal is to spread as wide a net as possible to assure we survey voters who may not have voted in primary elections before. A quadruple filter was used to determine that we were surveying only likely Republican Party Primary voters. First voters had to say they were registered voters. If they were not, the phone call ended. Then, they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, or definitely not voting in the November General Election. If they were definitely not voting the phone call ended. Then they were asked if they were definitely voting, probably voting, not sure yet, definitely not voting, or if they had already voted by absentee ballot in the March 8 th Presidential Primary. If they were definitely not voting the call ended. Finally, they were informed that they could only vote in on party s primary, not in both. They were asked if they were voting in the Democratic Party Primary, the Republican Party Primary, or if they were not sure. If respondents said Democratic or not sure the call ended, so we were only polling those who said they were voting in the Republican Party Primary Election. We asked Mark Grebner of Practical Political Consulting, considered to be the top list vendor and leading voter demographer in Michigan, and the person who supplied us with our sample, to give us his estimate on voter turnout by age, gender, and race. We compared final results to determine if the data needed to be weighed to reflect the demographics of the likely voters. In this poll, results were close enough to the estimates so we did not put any weights on the data. Federal law only permits us to call land lines. Because likely Primary voters are older, almost six-in-ten (59%) are 60 or older and eight-in-ten (81%) are older than 50, there are sufficient land line voters to get an accurate sample. We do not have to make any assumptions of likely voter turnout.

4 (Steve Mitchell is CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, an East Lansing, Michigan based polling and consulting company. He is currently political pollster for FOX 2 Detroit. He has polled with great accuracy for the media in Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Illinois, and California. His final polling in the 2012 Michigan GOP Presidential Primary had Romney winning by 1.4%, Romney won by 3.2%. There was no contended Democratic primary in Michigan in As a media pollster, Mitchell does not endorse, support, or poll for any of the Republican or Democratic presidential candidates. He can be reached at ; on Twitter) (The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll) -30- A field copy (aggregate percentages) and full crosstabs follow.

5 Survey of the State of Michigan Likely March 2016 GOP Primary Election Voters Conducted 1/25/16 N=493 N=330 N=394 N=453 N=679 Hi, we re conducting a survey of Michigan voters for TV and radio stations on the Presidential Race and other issues. 1. If you are a registered voter at the household we are calling please press 1. If you re not, press 2. Yes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No Thinking about the November 2016 General Election for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely 97% 97% 99% 98% Probably Not Sure Yet Thinking about the upcoming March 8 Presidential Primary race for president, if you are definitely voting press 1, probably voting press 2, not sure yet press 3, or definitely not voting press 4. Definitely 87% 93% 96% 92% Probably Not Sure Yet Already Voted

6 4. In a Presidential Primary you can only vote for candidates in one political party. Next month, will you be voting in the Democratic Party Presidential Primary, the Republican Party Presidential Primary, or are you not sure? Republican 100% 100% 100% 100% Democratic Not Sure Before presidential and other questions, five quick questions for statistical purposes: 5. What is your age? If you are: % 20% 21% 18% or older If you are a male press 1 or a female press 2. Male 50% 48% 52% 49% Female % 7. If you are white/caucasian press 1, African-American press 2, Hispanic press 3, Asian or something else press 4. White 97% 93% 94% 94% Other If you are a: Democrat/Lean 4% 6% 3% 4% Democrat Republican/Lean Republican Another Party Independent

7 9. What area do you live in? If you live in the: Wayne County 10% 12% 12% 15% Oakland County Macomb County Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb Monroe/Washtenaw/Lan sing/jackson/mid- Michigan West Michigan Northern Michigan/U.P Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the following statement: I m mad as hell and I won t take it anymore! If you Strongly agree 38% 47% 50% 40% --% --% --% Somewhat agree % 74% 84% 64% --% --% --% Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree % 11% 17% 13% --% --% --% DK/Refused Are you Protestant (like Presbyterian, Baptist, Methodist, etc.) or are you Roman Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, or do you not go to church/temple or mosque? If you are 2/23/16 3/1/16 3/2/16 3/3/16 3/6/16 Protestant 50% 56% Roman Catholic Jewish 2 2 Muslim 1 1 Non-church 10 8 goer Not Sure Some people regard themselves as Evangelical Christians. If you are 2/23/16 3/1/16 3/2/16 3/3/16 3/6/16 Not Evangelical 52% 54% Christian You Are Evangelical 34% 36 Christian Not Sure 14% 10

8 13. If the Republican Party Primary was being held today which candidate would you be voting for? I list the top five candidates in alphabetical order. If you would NOT be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, if you would be voting for Ben Carson press 2, Ted Cruz press 3, John Kasich press 4, Marco Rubio press 5, Donald Trump Press 6, if you are or have voted absentee for someone else press 7, if you re not sure press 8. [Note: On 1/25 and 2/4 top six candidates in national polls chosen so Christie included and not Kasich] Bush 2% 5% Carson 9 7 7% 9% --% --% --% Christie Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Undecided Are you definitely voting for your candidate, probably voting for your candidate, or could you change your mind and vote for another candidate? If you are definitely voting for your candidate press 1, probably voting press 2, or if you could change your mind press 3. GOP 2/15/16 GOP 2/23/16 GOP 3/1/16 GOP 3/2/16 GOP 3/3/16 GOP 3/6/16 Definitely 58% 69% 70% Probably Change Mind Who is your second choice? Again, I list the six candidates in alphabetical order? If you would not be voting in the Republican Primary press 1, If you your second choice would be Jeb Bush press 2, Ben Carson press 3, Chris Christie press 4, Ted Cruz press 5, Marco Rubio press 6, Donald Trump Press 7, if you are not sure press 8. Bush 9% 9% Carson % 20% --% --% --% Christie Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Undecided

9 (In reading GOP cross tabs the third number down is the correct percentage of vote for each candidate. For example, looking at the far right column, Carson is getting 8.5% of the vote (we round to 9%) among Republican Party voters. He is getting 8.5% of definite voters, 8.5% of probably voters etc. Among all voters, 92.2% are definitely voting, 5.6% probably voting etc.) IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Political Primary Republican Primary Definitely Voting 3. March 8 Primary Probably Not Sure Voting Yet Already Voted AV Total % 92.2% 5.6% 1.3% 0.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 91.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 8.5% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Cruz % 93.7% 5.3% 0.0% 1.1% 14.0% 14.2% 13.2% 0.0% 16.7% Kasich % 96.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 12.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Rubio % 91.4% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8% 18.9% 18.7% 18.4% 33.3% 16.7% Trump % 92.8% 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 38.7% 39.0% 28.9% 44.4% 66.7% Other % 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Not Sure % 80.0% 15.6% 4.4% 0.0% 6.6% 5.8% 18.4% 22.2% 0.0%

10 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Age 6. Gender or Older Male Female Total % 11.8% 30.0% 30.2% 22.4% 48.9% 51.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 22.4% 37.9% 22.4% 15.5% 36.2% 63.8% 2.6% 16.3% 10.8% 6.3% 5.9% 6.3% 10.7% Cruz % 15.8% 31.6% 24.2% 21.1% 61.1% 38.9% 18.4% 18.8% 14.7% 11.2% 13.2% 17.5% 10.7% Kasich % 10.3% 23.1% 38.5% 24.4% 48.7% 51.3% 7.9% 10.0% 8.8% 14.6% 12.5% 11.4% 11.5% Rubio % 13.3% 28.1% 34.4% 18.0% 38.3% 61.7% 21.1% 21.3% 17.6% 21.5% 15.1% 14.8% 22.8% Trump % 8.4% 32.7% 29.3% 23.2% 53.2% 46.8% 44.7% 27.5% 42.2% 37.6% 40.1% 42.2% 35.4% Other % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.7% 41.7% 58.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 1.5% 2.0% Not Sure % 11.1% 26.7% 40.0% 20.0% 46.7% 53.3% 2.6% 6.3% 5.9% 8.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.9%

11 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Race 8. Political Party Republic- White Other Democrat or Lean Democrat an or Lean Republic... Independent Total % 6.2% 4.3% 84.7% 11.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 8.6% 5.2% 86.2% 8.6% 8.3% 11.9% 10.3% 8.7% 6.7% Cruz % 7.4% 0.0% 91.6% 8.4% 13.8% 16.7% 0.0% 15.1% 10.7% Kasich % 5.1% 11.5% 76.9% 11.5% 11.6% 9.5% 31.0% 10.4% 12.0% Rubio % 3.9% 1.6% 89.8% 8.6% 19.3% 11.9% 6.9% 20.0% 14.7% Trump % 6.1% 5.3% 84.0% 10.6% 38.8% 38.1% 48.3% 38.4% 37.3% Other % 25.0% 8.3% 50.0% 41.7% 1.4% 7.1% 3.4% 1.0% 6.7% Not Sure % 4.4% 0.0% 80.0% 20.0% 6.8% 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% 12.0%

12 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Area Wayne County Oakland County Macomb County Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Thumb Monroe, Washtenaw, Lansing,... West Michigan Northern Michigan/ U.P. Total % 14.4% 7.4% 13.0% 15.0% 21.8% 13.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 3.4% 10.3% 12.1% 13.8% 32.8% 17.2% 5.9% 2.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.8% 12.8% 11.0% Cruz % 8.4% 6.3% 12.6% 16.8% 26.3% 17.9% 10.8% 8.2% 12.0% 13.6% 15.7% 16.9% 18.7% Kasich % 23.1% 5.1% 6.4% 12.8% 21.8% 11.5% 14.7% 18.4% 8.0% 5.7% 9.8% 11.5% 9.9% Rubio % 18.0% 2.3% 12.5% 17.2% 25.8% 9.4% 18.6% 23.5% 6.0% 18.2% 21.6% 22.3% 13.2% Trump % 16.0% 9.9% 14.4% 13.3% 15.6% 13.3% 45.1% 42.9% 52.0% 43.2% 34.3% 27.7% 38.5% Other % 8.3% 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 0.0% 4.4% Not Sure % 8.9% 11.1% 17.8% 17.8% 28.9% 8.9% 2.9% 4.1% 10.0% 9.1% 7.8% 8.8% 4.4%

13 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Are You Mad Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure Total % 23.9% 8.0% 5.2% 23.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 36.2% 8.6% 5.2% 15.5% 7.4% 13.0% 9.3% 8.6% 5.7% Cruz % 25.3% 4.2% 4.2% 25.3% 14.5% 14.8% 7.4% 11.4% 15.1% Kasich % 25.6% 9.0% 19.2% 23.1% 6.7% 12.3% 13.0% 42.9% 11.3% Rubio % 33.6% 20.3% 7.8% 28.1% 4.8% 26.5% 48.1% 28.6% 22.6% Trump % 17.1% 2.3% 0.8% 18.6% 59.9% 27.8% 11.1% 5.7% 30.8% Other % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% Not Sure % 20.0% 13.3% 2.2% 35.6% 4.8% 5.6% 11.1% 2.9% 10.1%

14 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Religion 12. Evangelical Christians Protestant Roman Catholic Nonchurch Goer Jewish/ Mus/Not Sure Not an Evangelical Christian You Are an Evangelical Chris... Not Sure Total % 29.2% 8.1% 6.6% 54.2% 35.8% 10.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 25.9% 0.0% 6.9% 44.8% 46.6% 8.6% 10.2% 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% 7.1% 11.1% 7.4% Cruz % 20.0% 5.3% 5.3% 35.8% 55.8% 8.4% 17.3% 9.6% 9.1% 11.1% 9.2% 21.8% 11.8% Kasich % 32.1% 14.1% 5.1% 74.4% 15.4% 10.3% 10.0% 12.6% 20.0% 8.9% 15.8% 4.9% 11.8% Rubio % 35.2% 7.0% 2.3% 57.0% 37.5% 5.5% 18.6% 22.7% 16.4% 6.7% 19.8% 19.8% 10.3% Trump % 33.1% 9.1% 8.4% 59.3% 30.0% 10.6% 34.1% 43.9% 43.6% 48.9% 42.4% 32.5% 41.2% Other % 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 25.0% 41.7% 33.3% 1.8% 0.0% 3.6% 6.7% 0.8% 2.1% 5.9% Not Sure % 15.6% 8.9% 8.9% 40.0% 42.2% 17.8% 7.9% 3.5% 7.3% 8.9% 4.9% 7.8% 11.8%

15 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Change Mind About Candidate Definitely Probably Change Mind Total % 15.8% 13.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 20.7% 12.1% 8.2% 11.2% 7.4% Cruz % 13.7% 7.4% 15.7% 12.1% 7.4% Kasich % 25.6% 11.5% 10.3% 18.7% 9.6% Rubio % 25.8% 10.2% 17.2% 30.8% 13.8% Trump % 9.9% 5.7% 46.4% 24.3% 16.0% Other % 0.0% 50.0% 1.3% 0.0% 6.4% Not Sure % 6.7% 82.2% 1.0% 2.8% 39.4%

16 IVR Fox 2-Mitchell Michigan Poll N= Second Choice Not Voting in GOP Carson Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump Other Total % 20.3% 13.8% 21.8% 16.5% 10.6% 14.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13. Trial Ballot Top 5 GOP Carson % 3.4% 24.1% 19.0% 29.3% 8.6% 12.1% 11.8% 1.4% 14.9% 7.4% 15.2% 6.9% 7.1% Cruz % 28.4% 5.3% 12.6% 33.7% 12.6% 4.2% 17.6% 19.6% 5.3% 8.1% 28.6% 16.7% 4.1% Kasich % 19.2% 5.1% 2.6% 32.1% 17.9% 20.5% 11.8% 10.9% 4.3% 1.4% 22.3% 19.4% 16.3% Rubio % 14.1% 24.2% 38.3% 3.1% 11.7% 8.6% 0.0% 13.0% 33.0% 33.1% 3.6% 20.8% 11.2% Trump % 25.5% 13.3% 26.6% 10.3% 8.7% 12.2% 52.9% 48.6% 37.2% 47.3% 24.1% 31.9% 32.7% Other % 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 50.0% 5.9% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 6.1% Not Sure % 17.8% 8.9% 6.7% 13.3% 4.4% 48.9% 0.0% 5.8% 4.3% 2.0% 5.4% 2.8% 22.4%