(Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.)

Transcription

1 This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 16-19, 2015, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults, including landline and cell phone respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) Question 1 held for release. 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling [ITEM]? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 Summary Table Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Smwht NET Smwht Strongly op. a. held for release. b. The threat of terrorism c. The extremist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS *Half sample asked item b; other half asked item c. Trend: a. held for release. b. The threat of terrorism Approve Disapprove No 11/19/ /15/ /14/ /12/ /23/ /15/ /3/ /1/ /5/ /2/11* /8/ /15/ /15/ /12/ /21/09 57 NA NA 36 NA NA 7 4/21/09** 57 " " 26 " " 17 *Washington Post-Pew Research Center **Pew Research Center c. The extremist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS Approve Disapprove No 11/19/ Compare to: The situation involving the insurgents known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria Approve Disapprove No

2 5/31/ /12/ /28/ How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? ---- Closely Not closely ---- No NET Very Smwt NET Not so At all opinion 11/19/ * 11/4/12 LV * * 11/3/12 LV * * 11/2/12 LV * * 11/1/12 LV * 0 10/31/12 LV * 0 10/30/12 LV * 0 10/29/12 LV * 0 10/28/12 LV * * 10/27/12 LV * * 10/26/12 LV * 0 10/25/12 LV * 10/24/12 LV * 10/23/12 LV * 10/22/12 LV * 10/21/12 LV * 10/13/12 LV * 9/29/12 LV /9/12 LV /20/12 RV * 2/4/12* RV * 1/15/12 RV * 12/18/ * 11/3/ * 10/2/ /1/ * 7/17/ * 6/5/ * 11/3/08 RV * 11/2/08 RV * 11/1/08 RV * 10/31/08 RV * 10/30/08 RV * 10/29/08 RV * 10/28/08 RV * 10/27/08 RV * 10/26/08 RV * 10/25/08 RV * 10/24/08 RV * 10/23/08 RV * 10/22/08 RV * 10/21/08 RV * 10/20/08 RV * 10/19/08 RV * 10/11/08 RV * 9/29/08 RV * 9/22/08 RV /7/08 RV * 8/22/08 RV * 7/13/08 RV

3 6/15/ * 5/11/ /13/ * 3/2/ * 2/1/ * 1/12/ * 12/9/ * 11/1/ /30/ * 7/21/ * 6/1/ * 4/15/ * 2/25/ * 10/31/04 RV * 10/30/04 RV /29/04 RV * 10/28/04 RV * 10/27/04 RV * 10/26/04 RV * 10/25/04 RV * 10/24/04 RV * 10/23/04 RV * 10/22/04 RV * 10/21/04 RV * 10/20/04 RV * 10/19/04 RV /18/04 RV * 10/17/04 RV * 10/16/04 RV * 10/15/04 RV * 10/14/04 RV * 10/13/04 RV * 10/12/04 RV * 10/11/04 RV * 10/10/04 RV * 10/9/04 RV * 10/8/04 RV * 10/7/04 RV /6/04 RV * 10/5/04 RV * 10/4/04 RV * 10/3/04 RV * 9/26/04 RV /8/04 RV /29/04 RV * 8/1/04 RV * 7/25/ * 6/20/ * 5/23/ * 4/18/ /7/ * 2/11/ * 1/18/ * 10/29/ /13/ * 11/6/00 LV * 11/5/00 LV * 11/4/00 LV * 11/3/00 LV * 11/2/00 LV * 11/1/00 LV *

4 10/31/00 LV * 10/30/00 LV * 10/29/00 LV * 10/28/00 LV * 10/27/00 LV * 10/26/00 LV * 10/25/00 LV /24/00 LV /23/00 LV /22/00 LV /21/00 LV * 10/20/00 LV * 10/19/00 LV * 10/18/00 LV * 10/17/00 LV * 10/15/00 RV * 10/9/00 RV * 10/1/00 RV * 9/6/00 RV * 8/20/00 RV /10/00 RV * 8/6/ * 7/29/ * 7/23/ * 6/11/ /2/ /11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 7/17/ * 7/8/ * 1/27/ /10/88 RV /18/88 RV /15/88 RV /25/ * 9/23/ * 6/1/ * *2/4/12 and previous "not too closely" instead of "not so closely" 4. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential primary or caucus in your state. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?* Less Will not No primary/ Already than vote caucus voted No Cert. Prob (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op. All: 11/19/ NA NA 1 2/1/ * 1 * 1/12/ * * * 12/9/ * NA * 11/1/ * " 1 Leaned Republicans: 11/19/ NA NA 1 2/4/ *

5 1/15/ * /18/ * NA * 2/1/ * 1 0 1/12/ * * 0 12/9/ * NA * 11/1/ " 0 Leaned Democrats: 11/19/ NA NA * 2/1/ * 1/12/ * * * 12/9/ * NA * 11/1/ * " 1 10/29/ * NA 0 9/13/ NA 1 " 1 5. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) I'm going to read a list of candidates for the Republican nomination for president in If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop: /19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 Jeb Bush Ben Carson NA NA Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina * 2 1 NA NA NA NA Jim Gilmore NA NA * NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Lindsey Graham 1 1 * * 1 1 NA NA NA NA Mike Huckabee NA Bobby Jindal NA John Kasich NA George Pataki * 1 * 2 1 NA NA NA NA NA Rand Paul Rick Perry NA NA NA Marco Rubio Paul Ryan NA NA NA NA NA NA Rick Santorum 1 * NA NA Donald Trump NA NA NA NA NA Scott Walker NA NA NA Other (vol.) * * 1 * None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) * 1 * 1 No opinion Among reg voters: /19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 Jeb Bush Ben Carson NA NA Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina * 2 1 NA NA NA NA Jim Gilmore NA NA 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Lindsey Graham 1 1 * * 1 1 NA NA NA NA

6 Mike Huckabee NA Bobby Jindal * NA John Kasich NA George Pataki * 1 * 1 1 NA NA NA NA NA Rand Paul Rick Perry NA NA NA Marco Rubio Paul Ryan NA NA NA NA NA NA Rick Santorum 1 * NA NA Donald Trump NA NA NA NA NA Scott Walker NA NA NA Other (vol.) * 1 1 * * 1 * None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) * 0 * 1 No opinion (IF NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be? Which candidate would you lean toward as your second choice? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED SECOND CHOICE Gen pop RVs Jeb Bush 11 9 Ben Carson Chris Christie 6 7 Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina 3 3 Lindsey Graham 1 * Mike Huckabee 6 6 Bobby Jindal 0 0 John Kasich 2 2 George Pataki * * Rand Paul 5 5 Marco Rubio Rick Santorum 1 1 Donald Trump Other (vol.) * * None of these (vol.) 4 3 No opinion (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? (Candidates not read) 11/19/15 10/18/15 3/29/15 Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina * 1 * Lindsey Graham 0 NA NA Mike Huckabee * 2 4 Bobby Jindal 0 0 * John Kasich 1 * 0 George Pataki 0 NA NA Rand Paul Rick Perry NA NA 2 Marco Rubio Rick Santorum * 1 1 Donald Trump NA Scott Walker NA NA 8

7 Other 1 * 2 No opinion (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about just five of these candidates (Trump), (Carson), (Bush), (Rubio) and (Cruz) who do you think [ITEM]? Full item wording: a. is the most honest and trustworthy b. has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president c. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2016 d. has the best experience to be president e. would do the most to bring needed change to Washington 11/19/15 - Summary Table Most Best Best Best Bring honest personality chance experience change Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz All of them (vol.) * * Any 2 or more (vol.) None of them (vol.) 4 1 * 4 1 No opinion Trend where available: a. is the most honest and trustworthy 11/19/15 10/18/15 Trump Carson Fiorina NA 7 Bush Rubio Cruz 10 7 All of them (vol.) 1 * Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 1 None of them (vol.) 4 6 No opinion 6 5 b. has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president 11/19/15 10/18/15 Trump Carson Fiorina NA 10 Bush Rubio Cruz 11 5 All of them (vol.) 0 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 1 None of them (vol.) 1 1 No opinion 3 11 c. has the best chance of getting elected president in November /19/15 10/18/15 Trump Carson 22 16

8 Fiorina NA 3 Bush Rubio Cruz 6 4 All of them (vol.) 0 * Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 * None (vol.) * 1 No opinion 5 8 d. has the best experience to be president 11/19/15 10/18/15 Trump Carson 8 8 Fiorina NA 3 Bush Rubio Cruz 11 8 All of them (vol.) * 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 1 None (vol.) 4 7 No opinion 5 7 e. No trend. 9. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Now of those items, which is most important to you personally? Is it supporting the candidate who (is the most honest and trustworthy), (has the best personality and temperament), (has the best chance of getting elected), (has the best experience) or (is likeliest to bring needed change to Washington)? Most Best Best Best Bring No honest personality chance experience change opinion 11/19/ (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBILICANS) Again, thinking about (Trump), (Carson), (Bush), (Rubio) and (Cruz) who do you trust more to handle [ITEM]? 11/19/15 Summary Table The Health Immigration The threat of Tax economy care issues terrorism policy Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz All of them (vol.) 1 1 * 1 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 0 0 * * 1 None (vol.) 2 3 * 1 2 No opinion (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) I'm going to read a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop:

9 11/19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 12/14 10/12 6/1 1/23 Joe Biden NA Lincoln Chafee NA * NA NA NA NA NA Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 NA Martin O'Malley NA Bernie Sanders NA Brian Schweitzer NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 NA Elizabeth Warren NA NA NA NA NA Jim Webb NA NA Other (vol.) * * None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) * * * No opinion Among reg voters: /19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 12/14 10/12 6/1 1/23 Joe Biden NA Lincoln Chafee NA * 1 * 1 NA NA NA NA NA Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 NA Martin O'Malley * * 1 2 NA Bernie Sanders NA Brian Schweitzer NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 NA Elizabeth Warren NA NA NA NA NA Jim Webb NA NA Other (vol.) * * 0 0 * None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) * No opinion Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president? Is it (the economy), (health care), (immigration issues), (tax policy) or (the threat of terrorism)? 11/19/15 Economy 33 Health care 13 Immigration issues 10 Tax policy 5 Threat of terrorism 28 Other (vol.) 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 9 None (vol.) 1 No opinion Do you support or oppose the United States taking in refugees from the conflicts in Syria and other Mideast countries after screening them for security? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Support Oppose No 11/19/ How confident are you that the United States can identify and keep out possible terrorists who may be among these refugees very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all? --- More confident Less confident ---- No

10 NET Very Somewhat NET Not so Not at all opinion 11/19/ The Islamic State, or ISIS, has been targeting people who are not fundamentalist Sunni Muslims. This includes (Shiite Muslims), (moderate Sunni Muslims), (Yazidis), and (Christians), among others. To the extent that the United States accepts refugees from these areas, do you think it should give [special consideration to Christians], or do you think it should give [equal consideration to all people who ve been persecuted by ISIS, regardless of their religion]? Special consideration Equal consideration No to Christians to all people opinion 11/19/ Who would you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism Hillary Clinton or [ITEM]? 11/19/15 Summary Table Republican Neither Both equally No Clinton candidate (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. Jeb Bush * 3 b. Marco Rubio * 5 c. Donald Trump * 1 d. Ben Carson * 4 e. Ted Cruz * How likely do you think it is that in the near future there will be a terrorist attack in the United States causing large numbers of lives to be lost: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? ---- More likely Less likely No NET Very Somewhat NET Not very Not at all opinion 11/19/ /19/15 RV /2/15* RV /29/13 RV /3/11 RV /11/10 RV /25/05 RV /3/04 RV /19/02 RV /5/ *11/5/15 and earlier: Quinnipiac University poll. 18. How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans in this country: a great deal, a good amount, only a fair amount or none at all? More confident Less confident ---- No NET Great deal Good amount NET Fair amount None opinion 11/19/ /2/ * 9/7/ /7/ /26/ * 9/11/ * 8/21/ * 9/8/04 RV

11 9/7/ /8/ * 7/15/ * 6/9/ * 5/19/ /10/ * 1/27/ /27/ /6/ /11/ /2/ /5/ * 5/14/ /20/ /28/ /3/ * 19. What do you think is more important right now - (for the federal government to investigate possible terrorist threats, even if that intrudes on personal privacy); or (for the federal government not to intrude on personal privacy, even if that limits its ability to investigate possible terrorist threats)? Investigate Don't intrude threats on privacy No opinion 11/19/ /15/ /21/ /9/13* /21/ /15/ /11/ /7/ /15/ /11/ /8/ /7/03** /8/ /9/ *Washington Post/Pew Research Center **9/7/03 and previous: "FBI" rather than "federal government 20. As you may know, the group called the Islamic State, or ISIS, has taken responsibility for attacks that killed about 130 people in Paris last week. Do you think the United States should or should not take part in a military response to these attacks? Should Should not No opinion 11/19/ (IF TAKE PART) Do you think the United States should take a (leading) role in a military response to these attacks, or a (supporting) role? Leading Supporting No opinion 11/19/ Q20/21 NET: Should take part Should not No NET Leading Supporting No op. take part opinion

12 11/19/ * Do you support or oppose [ITEM] against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 Summary Table Support Oppose No a. increased U.S. air strikes b. the increased use of U.S. ground forces Trend: a. increased U.S. air strikes Support Oppose No 11/19/ Compare to: Do you support or oppose the U.S.-led air strikes that are under way against Islamic State insurgents and related targets in Syria? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Support Oppose No 9/28/ Compare to: Do you support or oppose U.S. air strikes against the Sunni insurgents in Iraq? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? Support Oppose No 9/7/ /17/ /22/ b. No trend. Compare to: Do you support or oppose sending U.S. ground forces to combat the Sunni insurgents in Iraq? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Support Oppose No 6/22/ (ASK IF SUPPORT INCREASED USE OF GROUND FORCES) Should that be a large number of U.S. ground forces or not a large number? Large number Not large number No opinion 11/19/ a/23 NET: ---- Support increased ground forces --- Oppose increased No NET Large number Not large No op. ground forces opinion 11/19/

13 24. Do you think the United States is at war with radical Islam, or not? At war Not at war No opinion 11/19/ Questions held for release. 28. There are about 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Would you support or oppose an effort by the federal government to deport all these undocumented immigrants and send them back to their home countries? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Support Oppose No 11/19/ Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion 11/19/ /18/ /10/ /19/ /31/ /29/ /15/ /14/ /26/ /12/ /7/ *** END *** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and ABC News. The poll is a random sample of the continental United States, not including Alaska and Hawaii, with interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document, other than the party identification question which was asked after question 4. Demographics and questions on voter registration and religious identity not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by RV indicate results among registered voters. A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landlines cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 351 interviews completed on landlines and 653 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 400 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult

14 sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey March Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey s design effect, which is 1.34 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Unweighted Group sample size Error margin All adults 1,004 +/- 3.5 points Registered voters Leaned Democrats Leaned Republicans Registered Leaned Dems Registered Leaned Reps The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls.