Realities of Survival for European Steel Is there a future for Steel in Europe?

Transcription

1 Realities of Survival for European Steel Is there a future for Steel in Europe? Platts 9 th Steel Markets Europe Conference May 213, London (UK) 1

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3 Realities of Survival for European Steel About SteelConsult International We know the steel industry We know the market Extensive databases Strong network of senior consultants, with a background in the industry Services Product Areas Why SteelConsult? Strategic Consulting Steelmaking Raw Materials Specialised in Iron & Steel Market Research Semis Expertise & experience Economics Analysis Flat Products Background in industry Customer Satisfaction Surveys Long Products Wide contact network 3

4 Realities of Survival for European Steel Contents Contents Realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 4

5 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities The global steel industry has done well over the last 1 years, especially compared to the automotive sector. Profitability has fallen sharply in 212, though remains significantly higher than before the China boom EBITDA (Index (US$, 2=1)) EBITDA (bln US$) 35 3 Global Steel Earnings Automotive Earnings Iron Ore Earnings Global Steel Earnings (Top-7) Iron Ore Earnings (Top-9) Top-9 publicly listed iron ore mining companies (45% of global iron ore output, 75% of seaborne trade) 2, Top-12 Automotive OEMs (9% of global car output) Top-7 publicly listed mills (65% of global steel output) 17 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 ' '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: SteelConsult International 5

6 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities However, EU steel mills have been hit hard since 28, with profitability down by 8% in 212 from the pre-crisis peak reached in 28 EBITDA main listed steel companies Europe (bn ) EBITDA (Index (US$, 28=1)) Global Steel EU Steel 28 pre-crisis peak '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 2 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: SteelConsult International 6

7 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Slab production costs in 212 and 213 are still at one of the highest levels ever. EU mills find themselves squeezed by weak fundamentals in their local sales markets, whilst competing in persistently tight global markets for their raw materials Operational production cost/t slab, EU mill, US$/t Other operational production costs** Freight raw materials Raw materials * Source: SteelConsult analysis Notes: *Q1 213 **Incl. net energy credit 7

8 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities The EU steel market is mature and declines by.3% per year on average over the long term. The 27/28 peak was an exceptional level that was last reached 3 years before. Today s market can be considered a sustainable level in line with the long term trend Finished steel consumption (mln tonnes) 25 Europe (excl. Turkey) '67'68'69'7'71'72'73'74'75'76'77'78'79'8'81'82'83'84'85'86'87'88'89'9'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99''1'2'3'4'5'6'7'8'9'1'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'2 Source: WSA, SteelConsult 8

9 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Steel production is moving from the Atlantic region to Asia, which in 212 produced 66% of global output, compared to only 11% in 196 Steel output by country/region (mln tonnes) 12% Americas Europe CIS Japan China Other Asia ROW 1% 8% 1% 14% 4% 2% 4% 5% 2% Asia 3% 12% 6% 4% 48% Europe 37% 47% 7%? 7% 2% 37% 28% 14% % % Source: Hatch Consulting Data: WSA, SteelConsult 9

10 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Also on an individual level, EU steel is loosing scale and influence. 25 years ago the global Top-1 steel mills counted 4 European players, today the Top-1 includes 1 global player and 9 Asian mills Crude steel output Top-1 mills, 1988 (mln tonnes) Crude steel output Top-1 mills, 212 (mln tonnes) Nippon Steel 28 ArcelorMittal 94 Usinor 18 Nippon Steel & Sumitomo 48 British Steel 15 Hebei Group 43 US Steel 14 Baosteel Group 43 POSCO 13 POSCO 4 NKK Wuhan Group Thyssen 12 Shagang Group 32 ILVA 12 Shougang Group 31 Bethlehem Steel 12 JFE 3 Sumitomo 11 Ansteel Group Source: WSA, SteelConsult 1

11 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Europe is indeed the worst performer with regard to market growth... Finished steel consumption growth, CAGR % 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 15% 4% 2% % -1% -1% 1% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 8% -2% -4% Europe North America East Asia (excl. China) Other World Latin America CIS Global MENA Turkey India China Source: WSA, SteelConsult 11

12 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Slow growth notwithstanding, the EU is still a major steel market in tonnage terms, about the same as USA + Japan, and larger than the fast growing BRI markets (Brazil, Russia and India) combined Finished steel consumption, 212, m tonnes North America Latin America 22 Europe CIS East Asia (excl. China) China India Turkey MENA Other World Source: WSA, SteelConsult 12

13 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities Whilst Chinese steel output has continued to rise firmly post-28, EU mills are producing at 78% of the pre-crisis peak. This roughly suggests 22% overcapacity in Europe... Crude steel output, index (May 28 = 1) China EU World J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Source: WSA, SteelConsult 13

14 Realities of Survival for European Steel Realities However, real overcapacity is significantly lower, as output in May 28 was exceptionally high, whilst some capacity has also been closed since 28. We estimate overcapacity in the EU at 1%, or 2m tpy of steel, a grim reality, but less than some other recent estimates EU crude steel output/capacity, m tonnes Output in May 28*, mills pushing assets to the limit 219 Max. capacity 28* 22 Required overcapacity 9% utilization is realistic on a sustainable basis Realistic Closures since capacity Source: WSA, SteelConsult analysis Notes: *May 28, annualized **Annualized Realistic, structural overcapacity in EU steel industry 19 Realistic capacity True overcapacity 17 Production April 213** In May 28, EU steel output reached its peak, at a level of 219m tonnes**, which represents maximum capacity of the EU steel industry. In April 213, output reached 17m tonnes**, which roughly suggests 22% overcapacity. However, in May 28, EU mills were pushing their assets to the limit, using expensive high productivity raw materials, postponing maintenance etc. A more realistic utilization level that is sustainable across the cycle would be 9% of the level reached in May 28. In addition, some 7m tpy of EU steel capacity, or 3%, has been closed down since 28. This leaves overcapacity in the EU of some 1%, or 2m tpy, a grim reality, but far from some estimates of 4-7m tpy recently seen in the media. 14

15 Realities of Survival for European Steel Contents Contents Realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 15

16 Realities of Survival for European Steel Short term outlook The decoupling of emerging markets persists, though the latter have also seen growth cool down since 211. The Eurozone is expected to see IP contract by 1.5% in 213 and only a modest recovery of.9% growth in 214 Industrial Production growth (%) 16% f 214f 14% Global G3 BRIC countries 13.7% 12% 1% 1.3% 1.% 9.6% 8% 6.7% 6% 4% 2% % 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 2.6%.9%.% 3.1%.4% 4.7% 4.8% 4.% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.% 2.6%.7% -2% -4% -1.% -1.5% -2.7% -2.3% -2.7% Global USA Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Source: EIU, SteelConsult 16

17 Realities of Survival for European Steel Short term outlook The EU-27 manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, but the construction sector, the largest steel end-use sector, is still dropping sharply 125 Leading economic indicators EU (Index 21=1) Industrial production manufacturing EU-27 Construction production EU-27 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Source: Eurostat 17

18 Realities of Survival for European Steel Short term outlook Adding to weakness in construction, the automotive sector in the EU is neither showing any firm signs of recovery as yet 6, Car output and sales EU-27 (' units) Car output EU-27 5, Car registrations EU-27 4, 3, 2, 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: ACEA, SteelConsult 18

19 Realities of Survival for European Steel Short term outlook Looking forward, new building permits are also down in the EU, but, typically, the average for the EU-27 hides large differences in performance between Northern Europe and the South 16 Leading economic indicators - forward looking 14 Building permits Germany (Jan. 27=1) Building permits Spain (Jan. 27=1) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Source: Eurostat Note: Data is seasonally adjusted 19

20 Realities of Survival for European Steel Short term outlook The PMI indicator for Eurozone Manufacturing has turned down since mid-211 and remains well below the 5 level, suggesting continued economic contraction in the months ahead 7 Leading economic indicators - forward looking 6 PMI>5 = expansion 5 PMI balance point = PMI<5 = contraction 2 1 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Source: Markit 2

21 Realities of Survival for European Steel Contents Contents Realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 21

22 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Imports China, Russia and Ukraine are the three largest single exporters of steel to the EU 3 rd country imports of finished steel into the EU-27 (mln t) Other China Ukraine Russia Source: ISSB, SteelConsult 22

23 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Imports Chinese steel mills are competitive in their own domestic market, but not sufficiently competitive to be major structural exporters of steel to Europe Operational production cost/t slab/billet, US$/t, Raw materials Freight raw materials Labour Other operational production costs and energy Integrated mills EAF mills EU Coastal EU Inland Brazil Ukraine China USA Turkey (scrap based EAF) Middle East (DRI based EAF) Source: SteelConsult analysis 23

24 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Imports Ukrainian imports of finished steel into the EU rose sharply post WTO entry in 21 and 211, but have come down in Imports of finished steel into the EU-27 (mln t) Russia Ukraine Ukraine accedes to the WTO in May 28, former quota amounting to 1.4 mln tonnes for selected rolled products 2.9 Russia accedes to the WTO in August 212, former quota amounting to 3.3 mln tonnes for selected rolled products Source: ISSB, SBB, SteelConsult 24

25 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Imports Russian exports of steel to the EU have so far not significantly increased following the country s access to the WTO in August 212, except for an expected temporary peak in Jan/Feb 213 Imports of finished steel into the EU-27 (kt) Russia accedes to the WTO in August Ukraine accedes to the WTO in May 28 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F Russia Ukraine Source: ISSB, SteelConsult 25

26 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Imports Contents Some realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 26

27 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Offshoring Brazil has seen a number of investment plans for new greenfield slabfor-export plants in the last decade, but the CSA and CSP plants are the only export projects to actually have gone ahead Bacabeira: CSM - 1m tpy Sao Luis: Baosteel/Arcelor/ Vale - 5m tpy CSN 4.5m tpy Pecem: CSP (Dongkuk/POSCO/Vale) 3m tpy TMK 3m tpy Itaguai: CSN 4.5m tpy Anchieta: CSV (Baosteel/Vale) 5m tpy Anchieta: CSU (Vale) Congonhas: CSN 4.5m tpy 5m tpy Sepetiba: CSA (TKS/Vale) - 5m tpy Source: SteelConsult 27

28 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Offshoring Brazil principally exports its Fe in the shape of ore and not in the shape of processed products. Brazil does not seem to offer a robust business case for investing in greenfield export capacity for supply to the European market Net exports Brazil ( tonnes) 25, Semis & finished steel Pig iron - Fe content 2, Ore & pellets - Fe content 15, 1, 5, '8 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '9 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 Source: WSA, IBS 28

29 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges Offshoring By contrast, the CIS has more potential as a supply base for steel to Europe, and a number of supply flows (mainly in slabs) already exist today Metinvest Spartan (plate) Dansteel (NLMK) - Frederiksvaerk (plate) Evraz NLMK Clabecq (plate) NLMK Beautor (strip) Metinvest Trametal (plate) NLMK Verona Steel (plate) ISD Huta Czestochowa (plate) NLMK La Louviere (Belgium) (strip) Evraz Palini e Bertoli (plate) Metinvest Ferriera Valsider (plate) Evraz Vitkovice (plate) ISD Dunaferr (strip) NLMK Metinvest Promet Steel (longs) ISD Metinvest Source: SteelConsult Note: Some EU facilities mentioned above have their own steelmaking processes 29

30 Realities of Survival for European Steel Contents Contents Realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 3

31 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges CO 2 emissions costs CO 2 emissions costs are expected to rise to levels of 8-25/t crude steel in Phase III CO 2 emissions costs, average of integrated EU steel mills ( /t crude steel) 3 Phase I Phase II Phase III 3 25 Actual cost Case 3: High case scenario (EUR6/t CO2 by 22) Case 2: Middle case scenario (EUR4/t CO2 by 22) 2 15 Case 1: Low case scenario (EUR2/t CO2 in 22) Free * 214* 215* 216* 217* 218* 219* 22* -1 Source: SteelConsult analysis Note: Indicative only, forecasts are subject to specific assumptions 31

32 Realities of Survival for European Steel Long term challenges CO 2 emissions costs These costs would represent 15%-45% of average EBITDA margins of the EU steel industry over the last three years Average EBITDA margin EU steel industry ( /t crude steel) Source: SteelConsult analysis 32

33 Realities of Survival for European Steel Contents Contents Some realities for EU steel Short term outlook Long term challenges: Imports Offshoring CO 2 emissions costs Conclusions 33

34 Realities of Survival for European Steel Conclusions Conclusions (1) The EU steel industry is clearly facing challenging times: growth has shifted to other parts of the world, demand has fallen to a new, structurally lower level, raw materials costs remain high, at least for now, and the industry is facing overcapacity. The outlook is still weak in the near term future in all main steel consuming sectors, though some early signs of stabilization may have appeared, these will need to materialize further in the coming months. Modest growth can be expected in the coming years, but the market is very unlikely ever to go back to 27 levels. The EU market will remain cyclical, but will inevitably decline further over the long term. Is there a future for EU steel? Yes, the EU is still a major market in volume terms, with a high share of value added, demanding business. Quality, lead times, freight costs, service, delivery reliability, and price risk all favour locally produced steel. 34

35 Realities of Survival for European Steel Conclusions Conclusions (2) China is not sufficiently competitive to become a major exporter of steel on a structural basis. However, European mills may still on occasion be hit by temporary exports of excess steel from China. Any small imbalance in China will translate to large tonnages hitting the global market. A 1% reduction in capacity utilization in China equals the entire amount of overcapacity in the CIS in the early nineties, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, at any point in time. Imports of finished steel from Ukraine and Russia may rise at times, but so far the accession of these two countries to the WTO has not led to excessive increases in exports to the EU. For high value added steel products, there is a robust case for shipping the raw materials to and producing the steel in Europe, rather than shipping large volumes of semis from other parts of the world. The only region that has a potential role to serve as a steel supply base to Europe is the CIS. Depending on the development of carbon prices, CO 2 emissions costs may translate to a significant part of EBITDA margins and thus put further pressure on integrated mills, in particular those with low value added products. 35

36 Realities of Survival for European Steel Thank you for your attention! SteelConsult International Binderij 3-S 1185 ZH Amstelveen The Netherlands Tel: Fax: info@steelconsult.com 36