The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks

Transcription

1 The Global Economic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks Presented to: Project LINK, United Nations New York, NY November 22, 2004 Presented by: Sara Johnson Managing Director, Global Macroeconomics Group Copyright 2003 Global Insight, Inc.

2 High Oil Prices Are Here to Stay Awhile Rising demand (not supply disruption) is the culprit. The world economy is living with the consequences of the collapse in oil exploration and drilling in the late 1990s. There is little excess capacity and new investments will not bear fruit for a few years. Meanwhile, fears about supply disruptions have added a risk premium to oil prices--the Yukos affair, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, rebel activity in Nigeria, political instability in Venezuela, sabotage in Iraq. There is a 10% chance that a major disruption could push prices into the $70-80 per barrel range. Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 2

3 A Long View of Real Crude Oil Prices: Was an Exceptional Period 100 (Real Brent crude in 2003 $/barrel) Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 3

4 Real U.S. Imported Oil Prices Peaked in (Average refiners acquisition cost, dollars per barrel) Nominal Real (2004 dollars) Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 4

5 Attributes of Oil Price Shocks Magnitude of oil price increase Primary cause: demand vs. supply Oil usage intensity Oil import dependence Macroeconomic environment Business cycle maturity, output gap, inflationary pressures Asset prices / bubbles Current account balance, exchange rate stability Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 5

6 Attributes of Oil Price Shocks, Continued Political environment Domestic International Oil exporter revenue recycling Imports Foreign investment G-7 economic policies and responses Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 6

7 The Current Oil Crisis vs. Earlier Ones Price increases: smaller Primary cause: demand growth Oil usage intensity: substantially lower Oil import dependence: greater for U.S., Asia Macroeconomic environment Business cycle: expansion less mature, with the global output gap still not closed and inflationary pressures relatively mild But there are vulnerabilities: asset bubbles could burst and the U.S. current account deficit could lead to a dollar hard landing Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 7

8 The Current Oil Crisis vs. Earlier Ones, Continued Political environment: less challenging, notwithstanding Iraq and al-qaeda Oil exporter revenue recycling: far more rapid and efficient Central banks: more credible and proficient in shaping inflation expectations Fiscal situation: large budget deficits providing counter-cyclical stimulus Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 8

9 The Global Oil Intensity of GDP Has Decreased 40% Since (Oil demand/real GDP, index, 2000=1.0) Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 9

10 Advanced Economies Are Less Vulnerable Today Because of Their Low Oil Intensity 3.0 (Oil demand as a percentage of GDP, 2003) Canada U.S. Australia Italy Japan FranceGermany U.K. Switzerland Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 10

11 High Gasoline Prices Have Curbed Demand Growth in Most Advanced Economies 1.5 (U.S. dollars per liter, 2004) U.S. Australia Italy Japan France Germany U.K. Switzerland Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 11

12 Asia s Emerging Markets Are Vulnerable Because of Their High Oil Intensity 6 (Oil demand as a percentage of GDP, 2003) Thailand Indonesia Philippines India China South Korea Taiwan Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 12

13 Oil Intensity Is High in Other Emerging Markets 6 (Oil demand as a percentage of GDP, 2003) Brazil Romania Mexico Argentina South Africa Turkey Israel Poland Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 13

14 Impact of a $10 Rise in Oil Prices on the U.S. Economy in the Global Insight Model (Percent deviation from baseline level) Year One Year Two Real GDP Real Consumption CPI Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 14

15 Oil Price Scenarios Baseline Oil prices average $43 per barrel in 2005 and $36 in 2006 Crisis Oil prices spike to $75/bbl for two quarters, then drop to $30 Crunch Prices average $50 in 2005, then moderate to $43 in 2006 Crumble Oil prices fall quickly to $30/bbl in early 2005 and increase very slowly thereafter Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 15

16 Crude Oil Prices in Three Scenarios (WTI, dollars per barrel) Baseline Crisis Crunch Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 16

17 World GDP Growth in Three Scenarios 5 (Percent change) Baseline Crisis Crunch Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 17

18 Crunch Scenario: Little Damage World economic growth is marginally lower. Advanced economies growth dented by only percentage points in 2005 and 2006, thanks to their low oil intensity and relatively open, flexible markets. G-7 inflation is half a percentage point higher for two years. Output gaps and globalization limit pricing power. Credible central banks help to subdue inflationary expectations. Oil-importing emerging markets growth will be lower and inflation will be higher relative to advanced economies due to their higher oil import dependency. Energy-sensitive sectors, which are already hurting from high oil prices, will be squeezed even more. Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 18

19 Crisis Scenario: Below-Trend Growth With oil prices averaging $60 per barrel in 2005, the world s real GDP will increase just 2.4%, about 0.7 percentage point below trend and well below the baseline forecast of 3.3%. Advanced economies will see their growth rates cut to well below potential, but few will experience outright recessions. Growth rates in major oil importing countries will be reduced by 1.0 to 2.5 percentage points in In Canada and Mexico, the benefits of higher energy revenues are fully offset by weaker exports to the U.S. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa is boosted by about two percentage points in 2005, as higher oil revenues enable more expansionary fiscal policies. Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 19

20 Crisis Scenario: Risk of Deflation This time, super-high oil prices are unlikely to generate the stagflation that characterized the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, the growth deceleration will put the global economy uncomfortably close to a deflationary quagmire. G-7 central banks can cut interest rates (instead of raising them), since oil prices deflationary impact on consumer spending will outweigh their inflationary impact. Assuming no policy errors, the global economy should bounce back in 2006, given its greater flexibility and openness, and OPEC s vastly improved ability to spend and invest oil income. Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 20

21 Real GDP Loss or Gain in Crisis Scenario China South Korea (Percent difference from baseline, 2005) India Japan Eurozone Australia United States United Kingdom Russia Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 21

22 Real GDP Growth: Baseline and Crisis Scenario 10 (Percent change, 2005) NAFTA Other Americas Western Europe C. Europe & Balkans CIS Baseline Crisis Scenario Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 22

23 Real GDP Growth: Baseline and Crisis Scenario 10 (Percent change, 2005) Japan Other Asia & Pacific Middle East & N. Africa Sub-Saharan Africa World Baseline Crisis Scenario Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 23

24 Conclusions Higher oil prices will not be as problematic for the overall world economy as they were in the past. Higher oil prices will certainly depress global growth, but there is little risk of stagflation. Excess capacity in many sectors and global competition will keep inflation under control, giving central banks room to maneuver. If recent $50-55 oil prices persist, global growth will dip to rates uncomfortably close to its potential growth trend. If prices spike to their highs ($70-80/bbl), global economic growth will decelerate to well below potential, coming close to the deflationary danger zone. Copyright 2004 Global Insight, Inc. 24

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