Polyester Fibres in Europe: Developments and Trends

Transcription

1 Polyester Fibres in Europe: Developments and Trends 9th China International Polyester and Intermediates Forum Frédéric VAN HOUTE Director General, CIRFS Shanghai, P.R. China, November 8 9, 2012

2 1. Background and Market Outlook 2. Situation of Polyester Fibres in Europe 3. Polyester Fibres World wide 4. International Trade Issues 5. Trends 6. Quality 7. Specialization and Flexibility 8. Innovation 9. Sustainability 10. Conclusions

3 1. Economic Background in 2012 European economies slightly declining after two years of recovery : 0.2% expected in Western Europe ( 0.5% in the eurozone) Financial turmoil and weaknesses continue to weighheavily on certain periphery economies, mainly in the south of Europe Eastern Europe is not affected by the slowdown in the same way (+2.7%), Turkey should grow by 27% 2.7% 3.8% is expected in Russia Economic uncertainties continue to impact the climate in the USA as well (2.1%) But inflation in Europe is slowing, euro has been depreciating

4 GDP Growth 2012 (2013) Euro zone: 0.5%% (0.5%) Total EU: 0.2% (0.8%) Germany: 0.9% (1.3%) France: 02%(0 0.2% (0.7%) Italy: 0.7% (0.6%) Spain: 1.7%. %( 0.9%) Greece: 6,8% ( 2.6%) Portugal: 3.4% ( 2.2%) UK: 0.1% (1.6%) Poland: 2.8% (2.8) Russia: 38(3 3.8 (3.7%) Turkey: 2.7% (4.3%) Source: Consensus Forecast 3

5 Market Background for Fibres and Textiles Economic slowdown is making for a difficult market situation in European textiles Traditional textiles and apparel continue to face import competition Exports, first exposed to stronger euro increased but are now suffering from weak global markets Automotive ti markets kt have been weakening recently Market situation remains positive in non wovens and technical textiles Demand for man made fibres is adversely affected by weak textile markets Decrease inwestern Europe limitedgrowth ineastern Europe and Decrease in Western Europe, limited growth in Eastern Europe and Turkey overall economic recovery not before next year

6 Man made Fibres in Europe in 2011 Production volume stagnated in 2011 at 3.7 million tonnes Average value however further increased because of higher proportion p of specialities in product mix Europe remains the second producer worldwide of man made fibres Above average performance for technical yarns and fibres for non woven applications were noted td But weaker results for textile filament Margin continued to be squeeze because of high raw material and g q g also energy prices

7 Quarterly Changes in European Man Made Made Fibre Deliveries (Year on Year) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q4 2008Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2012Q % 20% 30% 40% MMF Quarterly evolution* Euro area GDP Annual growth rate **

8 In 2012 Economic weakness means difficult times for fibre markets Some raw material prices have been easing, but not at the same level and volatility is high Capacity is being adjusted to the market and some restructuring is continuing There isevenmore specialization, ili a lot of innovation, new fibres, new applications CIRFS expects stability with declining demand in Western Europe, stagnation in Central/Eastern Europe, moderate growth in Turkey Investment and modernization are however continuing Slow growth shouldresume in 2013/14

9 Continued Strength of Europe s MMF Europe is the world s second largest MMF producer It is the world s biggest producer of PP fibres The largest exporter of acrylics and cellulosic l fibres It has the largest single site units of acrylic and viscose fibres The leader in polymer modified fibres One of two leaders in ultra high strength fibres Strong in speciality fibres And a leader in innovation and clean production techniques 8

10 Europe s Profile is balanced bl European man made fibres production 2011: 3.7 million tonnes Polyester Polyamide Acrylic Polypropylene Cellulosics Other

11 Polyester Fibres: Situation of Filament Polyester Textile Filament: Mill consumption grew by ca. 3.4% in 2011 Good recovery in Turkey (+9.5%) decline in WE and CEEC Stagnation foreseen for 2012 (weak growth in Turkey) Extra EU import share is high and continues to grow Polyester IndustrialFilament: Mill consumption grew strongly by 12.1 % Should further recover in 2012 Slower growth is expected in Western Europe, stronger in Turkey Extra EU imports (Asia) further increased

12 Polyester Fibres: Situation of Staple Polyester Staple: Mill consumption grew by ca. 3% in 2011 Recovery in Turkey (+5.6%), stagnation in CEEC decrease in WE (4.1%) Stagnation foreseen for 2012 (small growth in Turkey) Extra EU import share has fallen and should further decrease in p 2012

13 Worldwide Situation: China Dominates in Polyester China leads world production and trade in polyester fibres, textiles and apparel 68% of global polyester fibres capacity 68% of global polyester fibres production 64% of global polyester fibres usage (spinning, weaving, knitting and nonwovens) 27% of global polyester fibre exports 40% of global polyester industrial filament exports 12

14 China has a 68% Share of Global l Polyester Capacity (2011) CHINA INDIA TAIWAN SOUTH KOREA EUROPE INDONESIA USA THAILAND PAKISTAN JAPAN MALAYSIA BRAZIL CIS MEXICO OTHERS Source : PCI 13

15 Globally: ll Polyester Dominates Polyester fibre production 2011: 38.7 million tonnes

16 Major Polyester Fibre Exporters 6.6% 16.9% 2.0% 3.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3.3% 26.7% 19.3% China Korea South Taiwan India Indonesia Thailand Malaysia USA Vietnam EU27 Rest World 5.1% 10.0% 15

17 International Trade All man made fibre producers face subsidized competition from cotton up to several billion $ a year Misaligned currencies distort competition Overcapacities i in polyester are huge and further rising! ii This leads to massively selling in export markets, causing harm in markets affected Given the competitive context, exporting only a small part of this surplus capacity can seriously distort the market Subsidies to investment, production, exports are widespread and further distorting the market Markets are excessively protected by non tariff/tariff barriers Responsible behaviour should be the rule! 16

18 Source: PCI Global Overcapacity in Polyester World polyester fibre capacity 2011: 51 million tonnes

19 The Trends: Globally China will continue to dominate in polyester India will further develop, focussing mainly on the local market Other Asian players are emerging Excess capacity will continue to grow, squeezing margins and profitability In some labour intensive processes, rising wages are encourage relocation Environmental concerns will need more attention in all markets 18

20 The Trends: Europe Europe will continue to be faced with many challenges: A weak economy Overall higher costs (energy, labour, raw materials etc.) A very strict EU legislation (environment, social ) Strong competition world wide d (incl. overcapacities, trade distortions, currency imbalances) But, today s consumer is also becoming more demanding (e.g. slow fashion, ecology) And challenges can be opportunities too Europe does have many strengths: Quality, Specialization, Flexibility, Innovation, Sustainability 19

21 Quality High quality is becoming increasingly important for all customers in Europe Modern textile equipment needs good quality fibres Such fibres can be found from producers in many countries but Europe is a real leader Proper quality management and high maintenance standards are key Technical standards and test methods support the industry s s efforts. Europe is again a leader here. CIRFS/BISFA supports these efforts 20

22 Specialization and Flexibility European textile producers increasingly focus on variety and rapid change MMF producers in Europe do not primarily intend to compete on commodities They concentrate on more variation, smaller quantities per type, short time re ordering Their strength and leadership is increasingly in flexibility and quick response This in addition to customer proximity helps save on stocks Re shoring to Europe and its vicinity is being noticed 21

23 Innovation Europe has one of the world s largest innovation efforts in man made fibres European MMF company Innovation spending totalled well over 1 billion in the last five years Europe is a leader in terms of research institutes, machinery producers and chemical companies The Dornbirn MMF Conference contributes to the spreading of best practices and R&D Many new textile products originate thanks to European fibre innovation Fibre innovation means advances in high tech uses for fibres but also in environmental protection 22

24 Sustainability European MMF producers are meeting growing public and consumer expectations on sustainability Man madefibreshavemajorenvironmentaladvantages major environmental advantages, in terms of durability, land use, use of water Much MMF production is based on renewables and/or recycled raw materials il European production uses less than 01% 0.1% of global oil output European energy sources and production emissions are among the cleanest in the world, waste is reduced, water use is minimal MMF are essential for environmentalprotection measures (geotextiles, agrotextiles, filters ) 23

25 Sustainability Public concerns about environmental impact will further rise, MMF in Europe have been used to work to tight standards Eco footprint is developing, EU legislation is planned but European MMF do have an excellent record Meeting the strictest occupational and consumer exposure levelsl Compliance with legislation and expectations is certainly costly but unavoidable to do business and Essential for future growth world wide! 24

26 Conclusions Global l competition i in MMF will further grow. Europe is and will remain an important player in MMF Companies need to adapt to the context and be even more effective Flexible and responsible companies, meeting the global challenges in terms of innovation, international trade but also cost will be leaders. Europe does have many strengths Quality specialization flexibility and reactivity are other strong Quality, specialization, flexibility and reactivity are other strong points

27 Conclusions Sustainability will have to be thoroughly hl integrated in each company s business planning Man madefibres have a lower ecological impactthanthan most competing materials and Europe is a leader But public awareness of the benefits of man made fibres and their contribution for a sustainable environment should be further promoted globally!

28 THANK YOU Frédéric VAN HOUTE f Tel.: Fax: