Q Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

Transcription

1 Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

2 Cairo Market Summary All sectors of the Cairo real estate market exhibited positive performance and improved sentiment during, with the office market signaling the most growth. While domestic sentiment towards the residential market remains positive, prices have declined in US dollar terms, due to the recent devaluation of the currency by the Central Bank. The Retail and Hospitality sectors continued to exhibit slow but steady growth during Q3. The completion of the New Suez Canal project is creating major real estate development opportunities and the government is actively seeking to partner with private developers, particularly in respect of new industrial developments along the canal corridor. A number of development partnerships are also being formed to undertake the Cairo Capital City project that was announced earlier this year, but no formal announcements have been made in respect of this project to date. Cairo Prime Rental Clock Q3 Retail Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Residential Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Office Hotel* Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Residential Hotel* Retail Office * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL

3 Cairo Office Market Overview Market Summary Cairo s office supply reached 911,000 sq m GLA as of Q3, after completion of the Summit 75 building in New Cairo that added nearly 7,000 sq m to the current office stock. The office market has performed exceptionally well over the past quarter. The improved economic conditions and the willingness by tenants to relocate to more organized and efficient workspaces has created increased demand for office buildings. As a result of this strong take up, vacancy rates have fallen in JLL s monitored basket to 26%. The strongest demand has been for space in Sector 2 of New Cairo, where rents have increased by 28% over the past year. Asking rents also continue to increase in New Cairo (sector 1) but the most significant trend during Q3 has been the return of rental growth in west Cairo for the first time in a number of years. Hot Topic Expansion of the serviced office sector. Regus (serviced office space provider) continues to expand its portfolio in Cairo by opening additional space in the Financial Centre building in New Cairo. In addition, a new centre will be opening soon in New Cairo, bringing their total in this area to four business centres. Regus currently operates 8 flexible workspace centres across Egypt. Siemens to relocate to New Cairo. Continuing the trend seen over the past few years, Siemens is the latest multi national tenant to leave the city centre (in this case Mohandiseen) in favour of New Cairo (where they will occupy 6,000 sq m of office space).. Office Supply 773K Current Supply (2012 ) 819K 904K 911K 10K Future Supply ( ) 20K 50K Q Office Performance Vacancy Rate 27% 26% Q3 USD Cairo Rents (USD per sq m p.a) / Annual Change Q3 Q32015 Y-o-Y Central Cairo % New Cairo (S1) % New Cairo (S2) % West Cairo %

4 Cairo Residential Market Overview Market Summary No new developments or major new phases were completed across the residential market in Q3, with only minor additions in the supply in Rehab and Cairo Festival City. The devaluation of the Egyptian Pound has resulted in a decrease in sales prices of apartments and villas in New Cairo, as well as apartments in 6 th October. The only exception was for villas in 6 th October, where the shortage of new supply has resulted in a modest price increase (3%), despite the currency devaluation. The rental market has performed more strongly in New Cairo than in 6 th October, where rental prices for apartments and villas both declined in USD terms in 6 th October during Q3. Hot Topic The 4 th edition of Cityscape Cairo was held in September with many developers using this as an opportunity to launch new projects. With over 100 exhibitors and more than 13,300 attendees, the exhibition provides the opportunity for developers to interact with potential home-buyers. A serious shortage of affordable housing in Cairo is revealed in a new study by JLL (Middle Income Housing in the Middle East and North Africa) There is an increased recognition of opportunities in this sector of the market and the need for government intervention and partnerships with the private sector to develop new projects for middle income households. Residential Supply Current Supply (2012 ) Future Supply ( ) 74K 85K 105K 108K 21K 15K 3K Q Residential Residential Performance Performance Residential Rent and Sale Prices Apartment residential New Cairo -4% 4% 6th October -8% -16% Villa residential New Cairo -2% 6% 6th October 3% -5% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q 5% 10% 7% -10% 3% 4% 2% 2% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

5 Cairo Retail Market Overview Market Summary witnessed the opening of Mirage Mall in New Cairo and the completion of a further 8,000 sq m of retail within Cairo Festival City. No further projects are due to be delivered in the rest of 2015 as construction delays continue. Vacancy rates in existing retail malls remained largely unchanged over Q3, but vacancies have fallen by 5% (to 17%) over the past year. Average retail rents have followed the same pattern as vacancies. While witnessing no change in Q3, rents have increased by 10% over the past year (since Q3 ). Hot Topics Growth of foreign investment in Cairo retail sector. The Saudi-based retailer Azizia Panda United (APU) has agreed to develop 16 new supermarkets across Egypt. The first of these stores is now open in 6 th October, with 5 others planned across Cairo this year. The other 10 stores are to be developed elsewhere in the country over the coming 24 months. The Emirati-based developers MAF and Emaar are also undertaking major new retail projects in Cairo (the Mall of Egypt in 6 th October and Emaar Square in Uptown Cairo). Continued political and economic stability could result in further foreign investment in this sector in the years ahead. Retail Supply Current Supply (2012 ) Future Supply ( ) 836K 1.1M 1.2M 1.3M 0K 444K 104K Q Retail Performance Vacancy Rate 23% 17% Q3 USD Prime Retail Rents (per sq m) / Annual change 1,400 Q3 1,600 13% Y-o-Y 2015 /2016

6 Cairo Hotel Market Overview Market Summary saw the completion of The Nile Ritz Carlton (331 keys). The St. Regis Cairo (292 keys) which was scheduled for 2015 is now delayed till Q While occupancy rates (53% in year to August) have decreased marginally (compared to the YT May value), they represent a significant improvement compared to the YT August (of 41%), reflecting the return of confidence and increased visitor arrivals. The financial performance of Cairo hotels has improved less rapidly than the occupancy rate, with the average daily rate (ADR) in the year to August 2015 increasing by 2% from that witnessed during the same period of. Hot Topic Devaluation of the Egyptian Pound should attract more Tourists. 7-month (YT July) tourist arrival numbers have increased by 7% year-on-year. Egypt has become a more competitive destination than other Middle Eastern markets (which have become more expensive due to the appreciation of the USD). This has resulted in the diversion of leisure travel by tourists from Eastern Europe and Russia. Providing that security can be maintained, the Cairo hotel market is likely to benefit from currency devaluation and the moves by the Ministry of Tourism to promote Egypt in overseas source markets. Hotel Supply Current Supply (2013 ) Future Supply ( ) 27,500 keys 27,700 27,700 28, Q Hotel Performance Occupancy Rate 41% 53% YT August YT August 2015 USD 103 YT August Average Daily Rate / Annual Change 105 YT August % Y-o-Y Source : STR Global Source : STR Global

7 Definitions and Methodology Interpretation of market positions: 6 o clock indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards. 9 o clock indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation. 12 o clock indicates a turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downwards. 3 o clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation. The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of 100 projects located in New Cairo and 6th of October, starting from Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Residential performance data is based on two separate baskets of projects, one for rentals and the other for sales of villas and apartments. The rental performance is based on 3 bedroom villas and 2 bedroom apartments The sales data relates to fully finished units, rather than those handed over in a shell and core condition. The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of the Grade A office space located in Downtown, New Cairo and West Cairo. The historic supply data has been revised since the Q2 report to reflect updated information. Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market rent (exclusive of service charge, tenant incentives & local taxes) that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, at the survey date. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Agency team for a basket of leading office buildings. This basket represents around 86% of the current supply to quality office space in Cairo. Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition and based on their GLA: Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000-90,000 sq m Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000-30,000 sq m Neighborhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000-10,000 sq m Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m Prime Rent represents the quoted rent for top end line stores within the top 5 super regional and regional malls in greater Cairo. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Retail team, and represents the average rate across standard in line unit shops at regional malls Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by the Egyptian Hotel Association as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply includes all graded hotel supply and excludes serviced apartments. STR performance data is based on a sample of internationally branded midscale and upscale hotel properties.

8 Cairo Star Capital 2 8th Floor, Office 86 2 Aly Rashed Street Heliopolis Cairo, Egypt Tel: Fax: For questions and inquires about the Cairo real estate market, please contact: Ayman Sami Country Head Egypt ayman.sami@eu.jll.com Dana Williamson Head of Agency MENA dana.williamson@eu.jll.com Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA andrew.williamson@eu.jll.com Chiheb Ben-Mahmoud Head of Hotels & Hospitality MEA chiheb.ben-mahmoud@eu.jll.com Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA craig.plumb@eu.jll.com Tarek El Kady Research Analyst Egypt youtube.com/joneslanglasalle linkedin.com/companies/jll joneslanglasalleblog.com/emearesearch jll-mena.com This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of JLL IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. JLL does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.