Office Market Conditions Across the UK

Transcription

1 UK National Voice - Q4 21 Office Market Conditions Across the UK Signs of recovery in the UK office leasing market appeared during the second half of 21 with take-up activity up 75 in comparison with the first six months of the year. Performance remains mixed, however, with several markets falling short of their five year annual averages. Supply conditions illustrated further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B space. Current conditions suggest that while prime space looks set to perform well over 211 secondary stock carries significantly more downside risk. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter but the strengthening market fundamentals for the best space may drive increased investor activity outside of London. Prime yields were stable at in the major cities outside London and 6.5 in the Western Corridor.

2 2 On Point UK National Voice Q4 21 Jones Lang LaSalle UK Summary Summary Statistics Q4 1 Change* 12 Month (s sq ft) 1, Supply (s sq ft) 22, Vacancy Rate () 12.6 bps 15 bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) Investment Vol. ( m) UK Office Rental Clock Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling London City, London West End Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Manchester, West London Edinburgh, Leeds Birmingham, Glasgow, Thames Valley For information on the Central London market, please see the Jones Lang LaSalle Central London Market Report

3 On Point UK National Voice Q National Overview Occupier activity has been robust in most markets across the second half of 21, which is beginning to raise concerns about where Grade A product will be sourced from towards the end of this year. As a result, it is anticipated that as pinch points of good quality supply start to emerge there will be a return to preletting activity in some markets. Investment volumes were relatively weak this quarter as buyers continued to be highly risk averse but the strengthening market fundamentals for prime space may drive increased investor activity outside of London this year. Fulfilment of long standing requirements boosts take-up Signs of recovery in the UK office leasing market appeared during the second half of 21 with take-up activity up 75 in comparison with the first six months of the year. Performance was mixed across the UK, however, with Manchester and West London performing particularly well but Leeds and the Thames Valley falling well short of their five year annual averages. Overall, 21 take-up surpassed 5.5 million sq ft, reflecting a 36 increase compared with 29 and 12 higher than the five year average. This improved leasing activity was primarily driven by a number of long standing requirements coming to fruition. Activity came from a wide spectrum of companies, although the majority are covered within the Business service sector, including recruitment consultants, Media firms, IT companies and serviced office operators. The latter was particularly active in the final quarter, taking advantage of the increased need for short term overflow space on flexible terms that has arisen from occupier caution. The fulfilment of several large requirements in Q4 has had a negative impact on occupier demand. We anticipate, however, a growing number of companies launching requirements in the first half of 211 as business confidence improves. Rising inflation and higher interest rates will be a key concern for occupiers this year. Inflation has already surged to 3.7 due to a combination of high commodity, taxation, food and oil prices not domestic demand - and financial markets now expect at least one rate hike by the Bank of England before year end. This will mean the market is likely to remain unsettled and there is still downside risk. Dwindling supply points to a return to preletting activity Supply showed further polarisation between Grade A and Grade B space. Several markets recorded stability over Q4 but this masked increasing divergence between vacancy rates for Grade A and Grade B. While prime and high quality space looks set to perform well over the year, secondary carries significantly more downside risk. In the short term it is anticipated that some tenants who took space in the second half of 21 will start to release stock back onto the market keeping the supply of lower quality space inflated. As Public Sector cuts start to bite, further influxes of Grade B supply are likely. In contrast, in almost all markets Grade A vacancy rates are now below 4 and are trending down. With the exception of West London, where around 3, sq ft is due to start speculatively this year, there has yet to be a development response to this impending shortage. With a number of factors, including lack of development finance and rising commodity prices, looking likely to keep development constrained, pinch points in a number of locations are expected to emerge this year. Occupiers in all markets are increasingly aware of the lack of choice and will soon have to consider prelet options in order to fulfil significant Grade A requirements. For cost sensitive occupiers with a lease event, therefore, the risk of not acting in the early part of 211 is that the economic rent required to drive a prelet will again be at a premium to the market rent. Over the final quarter, prime rents across most markets remained stable, with the exception of Edinburgh, which saw a slight softening due to concerns over low demand. Prime rents have continued to be supported by significant incentives, however, and in most markets up to 3 months rent free can be achieved on a 1 year term. Declining levels of Grade A supply will place upward pressure on prime rents, which are forecast to rise between 1.5 and 3. over 211 and will also result in an inward movement of incentives as terms become more landlord favourable. Investment prospects more hopeful due to strengthening market fundamentals Investment activity was relatively subdued in the markets outside Central London over Q4. This was primarily because investor focus remained on Central London but with banks restructuring their loan books this has also had the knock-on effect of restricting the debt available for new acquisitions. Prime yields have been stable at in the Scottish and regional markets and 6.5 in the South East. According to the IPD monthly index UK offices recorded capital value growth of just.63 over the three months to December with a yield impact of.62 compared to 8.1 in the first half of the year. With yields forecast to remain stable in the medium term investment performance will be dependent on income return and rental growth. Buyers who were in the market continued to pursue highly riskaverse strategies and as a result there has been a clear divergence between prime and secondary. Looking ahead, the strengthening market fundamentals for prime space, which will result in an improved rental growth story, will have the potential to encourage increased investment activity outside of London this year especially as the capital value growth witnessed in London over 21 is not expected to be repeated. The key unknown for 211 is the source of investment supply. We expect to see more product offered for sale from banks that are seeking to reduce their exposure to real estate but a significant influx is deemed unlikely. The mix of core and core plus assets with secondary stock will create an imbalance with the best space trading well and holding value while secondary space is likely to see further downward pricing pressure. Cash rich investors are expected to continue to dominate demand with lending conditions remaining difficult. There are possible new capital sources emerging, however, albeit with low LTVs, as the introduction of Solvency II will make it more attractive to insurers to lend against real estate but as yet there has been limited evidence of this.

4 4 On Point UK National Voice Q4 21 Birmingham Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Figure 1: s sq ft 1,2 Supply (s sq ft) 3, Vacancy Rate () bps 1 bps 1, 8 6 Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m) Prime Yield () 6. bps 25 bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated exceeded 12, sq ft in the final quarter of 21, which was in line with the equivalent period last year but still 31 below the five year quarterly average. Average deal sizes remained relatively small at just over 4, sq ft and there were only eight deals that transacted greater than 5, sq ft in the last quarter. Activity was derived from a wide range of businesses but serviced office operators were particularly notable accounting for almost 2 of space let, as they grow to take advantage of occupier caution driving short term spatial requirements. Supply in Birmingham city centre remained relatively stable compared with the previous quarter and is expected to start trending downwards from early 211. No speculative completions are scheduled for this year and as a result even modest levels of takeup will absorb supply. Grade A supply was already limited with just 65, sq ft still available and the gap between prime and secondary space is forecast to increase further this year. Looking ahead to 212, the lack of development will mean that occupiers seeking larger units of Grade A space may have to consider preletting options. Prime rents were flat at 28. per sq ft this quarter but there was some upward pressure as Grade A space reduces. Incentives remained high around 36 months was achievable on a 1 year term. Supply needs to reduce further before incentives begin to come in, but we anticipate some movement by early 212. Just one investment transaction completed in Q4: Salmon Harvester purchased 1 Victoria Square and Swallow House from AVIVA / Hermes for 17.5 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 8.3. Prime yields have stabilised at 6., but with upward pressure. Strengthening market fundamentals are expected to increase the number of active investors in Birmingham this year. 2 Figure 2: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft Figure 3: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 4: Prime Yields Q 4Q2 4Q4 4Q6 4Q8 4Q1 Prime Yields 1 Year Av erage 2 Year Av erage

5 Pulse UK National Voice Q Leeds Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Supply (s sq ft) 1, Vacancy Rate () bps -16bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m) Prime Yield () 6. bps -25 bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated Office supply was beginning to tighten over the final quarter of 21 as there were limited additions to the market. Despite this fall, the volume of available space was relatively healthy, with vacancy rates ending the year at 1.1 overall and 5.6 for Grade A, which was above the five year averages of 9.7 and 5., respectively. With little space coming through the development pipeline and no imminent starts we are forecasting that supply will continue its gradual decline over the next 12 months. The potential releases of Public Sector space represent the most significant downside risk to this forecast, although at present we do not expect significant influxes until 212. increased slightly in comparison with Q3, up 17.1 but the annual total of less than 285, sq ft was disappointing and 34 below the five year annual average. The absence of larger deals was the primary reason that overall volumes were diminished. Almost all deals this year have been sub-5, sq ft with anything over 8, sq ft considered significant. In the final quarter there was only one deal greater than 1, sq ft. Occupiers were still assessing the impact that the current economic climate will have on their business and remained very cautious. Prime rents remained stable at 26. per sq ft. As most Grade A supply is located within more peripheral submarkets there has been a lack of evidence apart from smaller suites. Grade A in secondary locations is trading for around 2-21 per sq ft, reflecting a 21 discount to prime. Weak levels of demand mean that landlords continue to be aggressive on terms, with high incentives on offer around 3 months rent free remains achievable on a 1 year term. The investment market has been fairly subdued. Just 8.7 million was traded this quarter but the annual total of million was 21 greater than the 29 total. Prime yields were stable at Figure 5: s sq ft Figure 6: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft Figure 7: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 8: Prime Yields Q 4Q2 4Q4 4Q6 4Q8 4Q1 Prime Yield 1 Year Av erage 2 Year Av erage

6 Pulse UK National Voice Q Manchester Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Supply (s sq ft) 2, Vacancy Rate () bps -5 bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft). n/a Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m). n/a -n/a Prime Yield () 6. bps bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated Supply remained stable over the final quarter of 21 but there was increasing disparity between the availability of Grade A and Grade B. The supply of Grade A fell 32, while Grade B supply recorded an increase of 31. Grade A vacancy rates stood at 2.1 at year end, reflecting the shortage of good quality space. With no available space under construction and constraints on speculative development remaining we anticipate this shortage will become more acute over 211. In contrast, supply of Grade B supply is forecast to remain abundant, particularly as releases of space from the Public Sector look likely from 212. volumes were relatively robust, with more than 33, sq ft let, 46 above the five year quarterly average. The annual total of 1.3 million sq ft surpassed all expectations and even excluding the Co-op deal, which signed in Q3, activity exceeded the 1 million sq ft threshold, returning the market to levels last seen in 27 and 28. While occupiers were still being driven primarily by cost and not quality there was some evidence of tenants acting opportunistically to take advantage of market conditions to secure good quality space on tenant favourable terms. As a result 64 of take-up in the final quarter was comprised of new or refurbished units. Professional Services were the key drivers of take-up, accounting for 37, of which 8 could be attributed to legal firms, the most notable deal being 83, sq ft let to DWF at No.1 Scott Place. Rents were stable at 28.5 per sq ft but were supported by significant rent-free periods. That said, incentives continued to creep in over the quarter to stand at 3 months rent free on a 1 year term compared with 33 months at the end of Q3 and 36 months in June. No investment transactions completed over the final quarter of the year but the annual volume of million was more than three times greater than 29. Prime yields remained stable at 6.. Figure 9: s sq ft 1,4 1,2 1, Figure 1: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft Figure 11: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 12: Prime Yields Q 4Q2 4Q4 4Q6 4Q8 4Q1 Prime Yield 1 Year Av erage 2 Year Av erage

7 Pulse UK National Voice Q Western Corridor Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Supply (s sq ft) 12, Vacancy Rate () bps 3 bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m) Prime Yield () 6.5 bps -25 bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated in Q4 reached over 41, sq ft, with key deals including the freehold purchase by HTC Group of Salamanca in Slough (69,7 sq ft) and JP Kenny s acquisition of 68,2 sq ft at Compass Point, Staines. The annual total of 2.1 million sq ft reflected an increase of 65 in comparison with 29 but was still 12 below the five year annual average. The focus of occupier activity remained in town centres which accounted for over two thirds of last year s total take-up. Grade A space remained in demand with occupiers taking advantage of the opportunity to upgrade their space at competitive packages; take-up of this space totalled over 1.2 million sq ft, equivalent to 6 of the total take-up during 21. Supply declined slightly but the Thames Valley remained significantly more oversupplied than West London with a vacancy rate of 2.1 against 8.5 respectively. This was further pronounced with regards Grade A supply, which remained at just 3.3 in West London its lowest level for 1 years compared with 8.6 in the Thames. The development market is beginning to react to the shortage of good quality supply in West London and there have been some indications that speculative development will start in certain key locations. Across the Western Corridor, rents increased 1.5, driven by upward pressure in Reading, Uxbridge and Hounslow. Incentives were stable at 3 months rent free on a 1 year lease in the Thames Valley but fell to 24 months in West London, down from 27 months in the previous quarter. Investment activity was limited in the final quarter just a single deal transacted, which was the sale of Intercontinental Hotels Group s HQ in Denham for million. The total traded in 21 was million, reflecting a decrease of 17 in comparison with 29. UK property companies were net buyers of 35.2 million, while UK institutions were the primary vendors, selling million. Prime yields were stable at 6.5 in both West London and the Thames Valley. Figure 13: s sq ft 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Figure 14: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft 1,2 1, Figure 15: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 16: Prime Yields Prime Yield Thames Valley Prime Yield West London Prime Yield Q96 1Q98 1Q 1Q2 1Q4 1Q6 1Q8 1Q1 TV 1 Year Av erage WL 1 Year Av erage

8 Pulse UK National Voice Q Edinburgh Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Supply (s sq ft) 1, Vacancy Rate () bps -13bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) 19.. n/a Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m) Prime Yield () 6. bps bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated Supply continued to decline over the final quarter. At the end of 21, vacancy rates stood at 7.5 with Grade A at 3.5, compared with 8.8 and months ago, respectively. Activity has been relatively robust with the lack of space being added to the market resulting in net absorption. The speculative pipeline remained switched off; the only scheme under construction speculatively at the end of the year was Site HI, due to complete by the end of 212. As a result, supply is forecast to trend downwards further throughout 211. activity increased 42 over the quarter, pushing the annual total to close to 7, sq ft, which was approximately in line with the five year annual average. Volumes were boosted by the completion of a handful of larger deals including 1, sq ft let to Tesco Finance and 25, sq ft let to Baillie Gifford. Requirements in the market continued to be derived primarily from lease events but there were some signs of Banking and Finance occupiers looking to expand. Both the Tesco Finance and Baillie Gifford deals were driven by expansion, while Virgin Money remains in the market seeking space for growth. Despite the improvements in take-up, however, overall demand remains fairly weak and consequently prime rents softened slightly this quarter to 27.5 per sq ft. Incentives remained stable with between months achievable on a 1 year term. As supply tightens through 211, we forecast an increased pressure on rents and incentives with terms becoming more landlord favourable over the second half of 211. The investment market was subdued during 21. Just one deal totalling 7.75 million transacted in the final quarter, while the annual total of million was 38 below 29. Prime yields have remained stable at 6. and while it is believed that downward pressure exists for lot sizes below 25 million as yet no evidence exists. Figure 17: s sq ft 1,4 1,2 1, Figure 18: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft Figure 19: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 2: Prime Yields Q 4Q2 4Q4 4Q6 4Q8 4Q1 Prime Yield 1 Year Av erage 2 Year Av erage

9 Pulse UK National Voice Q Glasgow Summary Statistics Q4 1 (s sq ft) Supply (s sq ft) 1, Vacancy Rate () bps 31 bps Prime Rent ( psf) U/C (s sq ft) n/a n/a Q4 1 Cap. Value ( psf) Investment Vol. ( m) Prime Yield () bps bps * Change for Prime Rents, Investment Volumes and Capital Values calculated increased 55 in comparison with Q3 boosted by a 56,8 sq ft sale of 1 Waterloo Street to Scottish and Southern Energy for owner occupation. Despite this improvement in activity, however, the annual total of close to 5, sq ft was still 1 less than the five year annual average. Government occupiers and Banking and Finance companies were notably absent from the market in 21, accounting for less than 1 of activity between them. At the peak of the market in 27, these occupiers accounted for 2 of activity each. The fulfilment of several long standing requirements had a negative impact on occupier demand as there were a limited number of new requirements brought to the market in Q4. An increase in demand is anticipated in early but not a significant bounceback. There was a tightening of Grade A supply, which dropped 12 to less than 55, sq ft, but several additions of Grade B space meant overall supply remained flat. There is no space currently under construction in the city centre so further declines in Grade A space are anticipated while available Grade B space is likely to remain inflated but stable. There has yet to be a significant volume of Public Sector space returned to the market but we expect this type of activity towards the end of 211 and into 212. A two tier market between Grade A and Grade B space has already formed. Prime rents were flat at 26.5 per sq ft with incentives high but stable at between 24 and 3 months on a 1 year term. As the availability of Grade A space falls further we expect to see upward pressure on prime rents this year. In contrast, the Grade B market was still very competitive with occupiers able to achieve tenant favourable terms. The investment market has been relatively quiet over 21, although the second half of the year has seen increased interest from overseas investors. In the final quarter 39.5 million was transacted in a single deal. 11 St Vincent Street was sold to SEB, reflecting a net initial yield of 6.2. Figure 21: s sq ft Figure 22: Supply and Vacancy Rates s sq ft Figure 23: Prime Rents and Rental Growth Figure 24: Prime Yields Q 4Q2 4Q4 4Q6 4Q8 4Q1 Prime Yield 1 Year Av erage 2 Year Av erage

10 Pulse UK National Voice Q Definitions Floorspace acquired for occupation by lease, prelease, freehold or long leasehold sale. All deals are included with the exception of Western Corridor, where a 5 sq m threshold is applied. Supply Floorspace on the market and available for occupation. It includes space that is under offer. Under Construction Speculative development of new building or substantial refurbishment where construction activity is ongoing. Prime Rent The Jones Lang LaSalle view of the highest rent achievable for a hypothetical 1, sq ft unit of Grade A space in a prime location, without any adjustment for incentives. Business Sectors Broad business sectors are classified as: Banking & Finance: Banks and other financial institutions Professional Services: Accountants, legal, management consultants etc Service Industries: Advertising and PR, broadcasting, internet services, printing and publishing, software houses and data processing, telecommunications services, transport, retail, leisure etc Manufacturing Industries: Pharmaceuticals, computer hardware, electronics, construction, mining, engineering, food and drink etc Public Administration & Institutions: Central and local government, institutions, charities, quangos, health and social etc

11 Jones Lang LaSalle contacts James Finnis Head of National Offices National Offices Stockley Park +44 () Chris Hiatt Chairman of National Offices National Offices London West End +44 () Mark Wilson Joint Head of National Investment London West End +44 () Kenny Waitt Edinburgh Investment Edinburgh +44 () Jonathan Fear National Offices - Birmingham Birmingham +44 () jonathan.fear@eu.jll.com Cameron Stott Edinburgh Agency Edinburgh +44 () cameron.stott@eu.jll.com Mike Buchan Glasgow Agency Glasgow +44 () mike.buchan@eu.jll.com Jeff Pearey Head of Leeds Office National Offices - Leeds Leeds +44 () jeff.pearey@eu.jll.com Trevor Sloan National Offices - Manchester Manchester +44 () trevor.sloan@eu.jll.com Guy Parkes National Offices South East Stockley Park +44 () guy.parkes@eu.jll.com Frances Ketteringham Senior Analyst EMEA Research Canary Wharf +44 () frances.ketteringham@eu.jll.com Bill Page Head of Offices Research EMEA Research Canary Wharf +44 () bill.page@eu.jll.com UK National Voice Q4 21 OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.