Kjell Aleklett. Jordens resurser Mittuniversitetet, Östersund, 16 maj, 2012

Transcription

1 1 Jordens resurser Mittuniversitetet, Östersund, 16 maj, 2012 Department of Earth Sciences President of ASPO International Global Energy Systems Uppsala University, Sweden Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com

2 2 Vad är en hållbar framtid? Hållbar för vem? För oss som människor? För naturen? För vårt jordklot? För hur lång tid?

3 Jordens historiska temperatur och koldioxidkoncentration, 600 miljoner år 3

4 Jordens historiska temperatur och koldioxidkoncentration, 350 tusen år 4

5 Globala energiresurser E = m c 2 Förnybar energi Politiskt korrekt Bioenergi, sol vind och vatten (geotermis energi) Global andel ~15% Fossilabränslen och aska från en supernova Politiskt ej korrekt Kol, olja och Naturgas uran Global andel ~ 85%

6 Tillgängliga energikällor Uran och Torium för kärnkraft Fossila bränslen; kol, olja och naturgas Biomassa: Skogsråvara, energiskog, rester från jordbruket Torv Vattenkraft Väderrelatera energi: Sol-, vind- och vågenergi Avfall Värme från luft, vatten och mark

7 The fuel for the sun is the ashes from Big Bang

8 Uranium and Thorium are ashes from a supernova Supernova 1987A

9 Where to find non-renewable fuels

10 30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm liter liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? När är Globen helt vattenfylld?

11 30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm liter liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? Svar: 41 minuter När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? Svar: 55 minuter När är Globen helt vattenfylld? Svar: 57 minuter

12 30 m 55 m Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm liter liter 110 m

13 13 Fördubblingstakt Antal år ln(2) x till = = fördubbling ökningstakt(%) x % Exempel: Ökning med 14 % Antal år = 69/14 = 5 år År: Antal: Per 5 år:

14 What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden

15 What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden Food three times per day Shelter To make money Social relations Climate Security

16 The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy Energy is running the world, not money

17 Ljusfördelning över världen 17

18 Fossil fuel and other energies

19 Det globala energisystemet 19 * Transformation of fossil fuels from primary energy into a form that can be used in the final consuming sectors.

20 20

21 World primary demand by scenario 21

22 IPCC

23 Kolreserver och kolproduktion

24 How Much Coal? Science 13 March 2009

25 How Much Coal? Science 13 March 2009

26 Bevisade reserver av kol enligt BP

27 Coal Reserves Top Five Coal Reserves 2006 [Mt] Country Reserve Share of world 1. USA % 2. Russia % 3. China % 4. India % 5. Australia %

28 Coal Production Top Five Coal Producers 2006 [Mt] Country Production Share of world 1. China ,4 % 2. USA % 3. India 447 7,2 % 4. Australia % 5. Russia %

29 Coal Usage Coal usage 14% 58% 12% 16% Residential, agricultural, etc. Cement and other industrial applications Metallurgy (iron and steel making) Electricity and heat generation

30 Coal reserves in USA Figure 2: Coal Production by Coal-Producing Region, 2005 (Million Short Tons and Percent Change from 2004) Source: EIA, Annual Coal Report, 2005

31 Peak Coal

32 Future coal production in the USA

33 Coal in Russia Figure 8: Geographical distribution of the Russian coal basins

34 Coal Reserves in China Distribution of coal deposits in China

35 Coal production forecast 2006

36 Naturgas

37 Gas reserves according to IEA

38 Existing production areas The Heart of Europe The Heart of Europe

39 Heart problems

40 Bypass operation

41 A peak in discoveries must give a peak in production!

42 Future Russian Gas Production and Demand Russian domestic gas demand Limited increase of export potential due to increasing Russian domestic demand. Source: Söderbergh, B., (2010). Production from Giant Gas Fields in Norway and Russia and Subsequent Implications for European Energy Security Bengt Söderbergh

43 Shale Gas Can it Work Outside N. America? 43

44 Globala gasflöden

45 45 Our society needs oil!!!

46 Our Daily Barrel We have a liquids problem

47

48 Deferent types of hydrocarbons listed as oil 48

49 Conventional oil What is oil? Crude oil. Oil produced as shales oil. Unconventional oil Bitumen and extra heavy oil from Canada s oil sands. Extra heavy oil from Venezuela s Orinoco belt. Oil produced from oil shales (kerogen shales) Conversion into oil Oil produced from coal by CTL methods (coal-to-liquids) Oil produced from natural gas by GTL methods (gas-toliquids)

50 50 World Oil Supply in 2010 according to International Energy Agency Total liquids Ethanol Processing gains 87.3 million barrels per day 1.8 million barrels per day 2.3 million barrels per day Total oil 83.2 million barrels per day IEA: 82.2 Mb/d 82.8 Mb/d 81.3 Mb/d 83.2 Mb/d BP: 81.5 Mb/d 82.0 Mb/d 80.3 Mb/d 82.1 Mb/d

51 When was oil produced?

52 Sediment deposit for oil and gas

53 There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS

54 Oil and natural gas are produced in petroleum systems

55 Oil and Gas in the North Sea

56 Oil Production in the North Sea 56

57 ASPO The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas Med Peak Oil avses den tidpunkt då produktionen av olja i ett område eller globalt inte längre kan öka utan går över till en platå eller minskar. Peak Oil betyder inte att oljan tar slut men att ökningen av produktionen tar slut på grund av att produktionen sinar. "The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."

58 58

59 59

60 World primary demand by scenario 60

61 Peak Oil

62 62

63 New Policies Scenario WEO Prediction for 2030 WEO Mb/d, WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d, WEO Mb/d

64 World Energy Outlook 2008-decline

65 Breakeven of 360 non-producing & recent onstream oilfields from Goldman Sachs 65

66 There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS

67 The Elephants The Giant oilfields

68 Number and size of oilfields

69 Jack 2 Kebnekaise and Mount Everest

70 Map of oil regions in the Arctic's

71 Estimated oil north of the Arctic Circle Prudhoe Bay

72 Oljeproduktion i polarområdet 72

73 73

74 US scenario, not forcast 74

75 75

76 The USA oil production 76

77 Bakken 12-month Cumulative Production Map Map shows wells with first production in 2006 or later. Green areas indicate break-even or greater production volumes Most production on the map is from the Three Forks reservoir. Indicates that production is from discreet fields. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. ASPO USA 2012 Conference 77 KjellSlide Aleklett

78 78

79 79

80 Bakken Shale Annual Base Replacement Bakken Shale Static Decline Profile Oil Production Number of Wells 350, , Barrles of Oil Per Day 250, , , , Number of Wells 50, Jun-00 Oct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct % annual decline rate. Must replace 182,000 bo/d each year to maintain supply. That means approximately 1,488 new producing wells/year at a cost of ~ $17 billion new producing wells were added in last 12 months ($13 billion). Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston SIPES Continuing Education Seminar Data from DI Kjell Slide Aleklett 80

81 Flaring 81

82 Production of crude oil

83 Giant oilfields in Saudi Arabia

84 84 The laws of physics are stronger then the laws of economy

85 Oil (tar) sand production 85

86 Oil sand production

87 Crash Program Production from Canadian Oil Sands, (Energy Policy, 2007) Thousand Bbls Per Day Year Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius, Energy Policy 35 (2007)

88 5 Mb/d - The size of the tap in Data by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

89 The two new taps from Alberta 89

90 Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline 90

91 The Yinka Dene Alliance Includes 6 First Nations (Nadleh Whut'en, Nak'azdli, Takla Lake, Saik'uz, and Wet'suwet'en) in northern 1 BC who have banned the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines from their territories. 91

92 The US tap The Keystone pipelines 92

93 93 Capacity 2025: 2.4 Mb/d

94 Oronoco oilfield

95 New Policies Scenario WEO Prediction of NGL, Unconventional and Tight oil 2011: 18 Mb/d 2035: 34 Mb/d (+16 Mb/d)

96 New future unconventional oil production

97 Predicted demand from the IEA scenarios 97

98 The Uppsala scenarios and production according to BP : Thesis by Fredrik Robelius and data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy

99 99

100 The Human Well Being (HWB) equation HWB(E) = Food(E) * Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy

101 Food and Fuel can agriculture provide? Agriculture as provider of both food and fuel Kersti Johansson, Karin Liljequist, Lars Ohlander, and Accepted for publication in AMBIO The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

102 Food and oil prices

103 Oil for food

104 Bio Oilfield Bio Soybean Biodiesel (Output/input energy ~ 3)*

105 Sugar Cane Output/Input Energy ~ 8.2* Ethanol production in 2006: 16 billion liters *Goldenberg, J.L.C Renewable Energies, Island Press, 1993

106 Palm Oil Biodiesel

107 Food Energy on the Table Recommended energy per person: 2500 kcal per day Recommended energy for the global population, 6.7 billion persons: 7100 TWh per year Nobel Dinner 2007 Or in oil equivalence: 12 million barrels per day

108 Needed energy for food production 1 calorie on the table in USA needs 7.4 calories of energy. With a global factor of 5 calories we get that 12 Mb/d food energy need around 60 Mb/d oil, gas and coal, and most of that is oil.

109 Food and oil prices

110 We are eating oil Nobel Dinner 2007

111 Can agriculture provide us with both food and fuel?

112 Food and Fuel Global agricultural production and some scenarios for possible biogas and ethanol production compared to present consumption of fossil motor fuels and global food demand.

113 Food or Fuel Today s agricultural cannot provide us with food and fuel.

114 The Human Well Being (HWB) equation Mänsklighetens välfärdsekvation HWB(E) = Food(E) *Shelter(E)* Economy(E) * Climate(E) * Security(E) E = Energy

115 Beyond Oil Shanghai Kungliga konsthögskolan

117 Energy and Economic Growth

118 Before the oil age, Sweden 1946 When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle, and tractors were seen in the fields.

119 Energy in Sweden during 100 years TWh A factor of five Nuclear Oil and gas Hydro 0 Coal Bio From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich.

120 GDP per capita

121 Oil Intensity

122

123 Business as Usual and Oil Demand World Energy Outlook 2008,

124 Business as Usual and Oil Demand

125 IEA prediction for 2030 WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO ? Mb/d

127 Daqing

128 Daqing - China Petroleum has a compact relationship with a countries political, economical and military strength.

129 Chokepoints 130

131 The energy system The Planet Heat in Heat out

132 We need to extinguish the fossil fire!

133 Amplificationfactors

134 IPCC

135

136 IPCC and Peak Oil

137 IPCC and oil production

138 A peak in discoveries must give a peak in production!

139 IPCC and oil + gas production

140 Peak Coal

141 IPCC and Peak Coal

142 An Inconvenient Truth

143 IPCC and Peak Coal

144 IPCC and oil+gas+coal production

145 IPCC

146 Langare av koldioxid

147 Andra viktiga resurser Vatten Cement Olika metaller

148 Global Wellbeing Equation

149 Time is running out

150 We Have to Build a Crash Mat

151 Dr. James R Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary And therefore to the peakists I say, You can declare victory. You are no longer the beleagured small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now main streams. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory. Cork, Ireland, 2007 September 17

152 A World Addicted to Oil Aleklett, Capitol Hill 19 Oct 2005 President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil

153 We are addicted to oil? 100 ml of oil contains 1 kwh What can you do with 1 kwh? You can move a small car to the top of the Eiffel Tower! A day s work for a man is 0.5 kwh Filling your car with 50 liters is equal to the energy you need to move 500 cars to the top of the Eiffel Tower or having 1000 slaves pushing your car.

154 50 liter gasoline is equal to the work of 1000 persons during one day

155 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2013 in Davos 156 Christine Lagarde, IMF, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Megatrends shaping our future: Increasing vulnerability from resource scarcity and climate change, with the potential for major social and economic disruption. Peak Oil

156 Future GDP and Peak Oil 157 Michael Kümhof

157 158

158 April Peak Oil conference in Doha, Qatar: The Dictator s Survival Probability 159

159 Oil fields in Iraq

160 Oil fields in Iraq Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne.

161 We are drinking oil! If 100 Gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have consumed 11 bottles.

162 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 (9) bottles of Champagne

163 Where to find the crude oil or the 8 bottles of Champagne?

164 The global consumption per year is 30 billion barrels of oil One bottle of Champagne is equal to the consumption in three years and four months.

165 The USA is addicted to oil President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They are just now sipping on the last glass.

166 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We will discover two more bottles of Champagne We also have three more bottles sparkling wine in Canada and Venezuela.

167 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 2 more to find, in total 13 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty one bottle everyone should be aware of that the party is over and that we need to sobering up! + +

168 Springer has the copy right to the Kjell illustrations Aleklett

169 170 World Oil May 2012 This book should be required reading for anyone seriously interested in the future world energy market and economy, especially politicians and policymakers.