Sustainable ethanol for sustainable transport systems today and tomorrow Chalmers University, Gothenburg, Sweden 26 May 2008

Transcription

1 , professor, Uppsala universitet Sustainable ethanol for sustainable transport systems today and tomorrow Chalmers University, Gothenburg, Sweden 26 May 2008 Global Energy Systems Uppsala University, Sweden Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com The energy system The Planet Heat in Heat out

2 , professor, Uppsala universitet Global Energy System E = m c 2 Renewable energy Political correct. Sun, wind and water Global about 15% Fossil Energy Politically not correct Coal, oil and natural gas (uranium) Global about 85%

3 , professor, Uppsala universitet The Historical Peak Oil Endgame The end of the Oil Age Oct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist printed edition On a time scale starting at year 0 and ending 4000 years later everyone agree that there will be a peak in the oil production between 2000 and 2100 ASPO The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas Formed in May 2002 in Uppsala, Sweden Bruce Stanley from AP: Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.

4 , professor, Uppsala universitet First Press Release from ASPO Production, Gboe/a NGLs Polar Oil Deep Water Heavy Conventional 87 million barrels per day The world oil depletion curve, above, is based on all available information on oil reserves and estimates of the amounts yet-tofind, and indicates that world oil production will reach a peak (87 million barrels per day) around 2010 and decline thereafter. Dr. James R Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary And therefore to the peakists I say, You can declare victory. You are no longer the beleagured small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now main streams. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory. Cork, Ireland, 2007 September 17

5 , professor, Uppsala universitet An Inconvenient Truth An Inconvenient Truth About Oil

6 , professor, Uppsala universitet Y 2, X 2 Oilfields in USA part of the fields in the world Y 1 = Reserves US 48 X 1 = Production US 48 Y 2 = Reserves Alaska X 2 = Production Alaska Y 3 = Reserves M.G. X 3 = Production M.G. Y 1, X 1 Y 3, X 3 M. King Hubbert 1956 The First Oil End Game f. 1903, d 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."

7 , professor, Uppsala universitet US Lower 48 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr 35 years oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year Import and Export countries 25 Mbpd - USA needs to import al the oil from Saudi, Russia, Norway, Nigeria and Venezuela

8 , professor, Uppsala universitet The Peak Oil End Game in USA 1971 By 2030 the likely production in USA will be 2 million barrels per year EIA-DOE: Energy consumption in USA 2030: 27,7 Mbpd 2004: 20,7 Mbpd Increase: 7,0 Mbpd Production 2030: 2,0 Mbpd Import to USA: 25 Mbpd

9 , professor, Uppsala universitet China: Discovery and Production Production will start to Oil Discovery and decline Production within 5 of years China Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year

10 , professor, Uppsala universitet Export countries 2030

11 , professor, Uppsala universitet The Norwegian Oil End Game A field by field analysis with maximum discovery potential. As Norway uses 0.2 Mbpd the export in 2030 will be around 0.2 Mbpd Oil Discovery and Production of Russia Production Discovery Production [Gb] Discovery [Gb] Year

12 , professor, Uppsala universitet Russia acording to IEA Future export of oil from Russia We cannot count on more then 3 Mbpd in export from Russia in year 2030

13 , professor, Uppsala universitet The Middle East Depletion rates for USA Production Depletion = Reserves Peak Oil year

14 , professor, Uppsala universitet Depletion in Saudi Arabia and USA

15 , professor, Uppsala universitet Production in Saudi Arabia Exports + and in

16 , professor, Uppsala universitet New discoveries from 1995 till 2025 is 100 billion barrels found and 100 billion barrels expected to be found. USGS mean prediction for the same time period is 649 billion barrels. Global Giant Oilfields F.Robelius, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletions Study Group

17 , professor, Uppsala universitet Top 18 Giant Fields Field Name Country Discovery year Range of URR [GB] Ghawar Saudi Arabia Burgan Greater Kuwait Safaniya Saudi Arabia Bolivar Coastal Venezuela Berri Saudi Arabia Rumalia N&S Iraq Zakum Abu Dhabi Cantarell Complex Mexico Manifa Saudi Arabia Kirkuk Iraq Gashsaran Iran Abqaiq Saudi Arabia Ahwaz Iran Marun Iran Samotlor Russia Agha Jari Iran Zuluf Saudi Arabia Prudhoe Bay Alaska We have allocated 507 out of the estimated oilfields in the world to be giant oilfields. The URR numbers from open published data in different magazines varies and adding the URR of the 507 giant oil fields we get a number between 1550 and 1150Gb. Thus, if using 2250Gb as a global value of URR, the giant fields represent about 65 per cent of the global URR Numbers for the top 18 giant fields are given in the table. Source: AAPG, OGJ, EIA The Important Parameter Giant Fields Giant fields compared to other fields with respect to: Number of fields URR Daily Production Giant Oil Fields ~1 % Other Oil Fields ~99 % URR of the Giant Oil Fields >50% URR from other oil fields < 50% Production from the 100 largest giants Other Oil Field <50% Production >50% Källa: AAPG, OGJ, Simmons & Company International

18 , professor, Uppsala universitet The Elephant Oil End Game Cantarell is speaking with Ghawar, Greater Burgan and Safaniya waiting Cantarell is declining

19 , professor, Uppsala universitet Giant fields Production of oil The Uppsala GES Giant Oilfield Model The production of oil can be divided into the following fractions: 1. Giant oil fields long term 2. Smaller oil fields long term 3. Heavy oil long term 4. New fields developments medium term 5. Deep water medium term 6. Natural gas liquids long term Thesis by Fredrik Robelius: Giant Oil Fields Highway to oil,

20 , professor, Uppsala universitet Jack 2 Kebnekaise and Mount Everest meter meter meter Jack 2 The Worst and Best Oil End Games

21 , professor, Uppsala universitet Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game Depletion rates for USA Production Depletion = Reserves Peak Oil year

22 , professor, Uppsala universitet Decline in existing fields: ExxonMobil Data Support a Worst Case Oil End Game Production from existing oilfields decline with 3 million barrels per day in one year. In 4,5 years the production from existing oilfields will be 71 million barrels per day. We must find new oilfields and put them in production. A production of 3 million barrels per day is 1,1 billion barrels per year and to be able to produce this oil a reserve of 27 billion barrels is needed. A plateau production will need this level of new reserves every year. 2012

23 , professor, Uppsala universitet GDP and oil use per capita Share of oil in commercial energy supply

24 , professor, Uppsala universitet GDP per capita The Oil End Game in SSA

25 , professor, Uppsala universitet Preparations for First Forum Leipzig May 2008

26 , professor, Uppsala universitet Uppsala Global Energy Systems The Peak Oil River Race Oil Endgame

27 , professor, Uppsala universitet We have to build a Crash Mat Global Energy Systems Web page: Aleklett blog: aleklett.wrodpress.com ASPO: