Low Carbon economy: How can (or should) the insurance industry adapt?

Transcription

1 Low Carbon economy: How can (or should) the insurance industry adapt? Future. Talk 3 / 2011 Sustainability and Insurance, Köln, 31/3/2011 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

2 Insurance & the low carbon economy = enable decarbonisation - Climate change - where are we? - What are your clients faced with? - What does that mean for insurance? - Discussion WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

3 Why - Carbon budget of 1000 GtCO 2 until 2050 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Source: Meinshausen et al, Nature, May st March 31 st 2011 March

4 2 C political agreement not met by sufficient action yet! WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Source: Meinshausen et al, Nature, May st March 31 st 2011 March

5 Europe 2009, EEA Data on current breakdown of CO 2 sources WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Source: Meinshausen et al, Nature, May st March 31 st 2011 March

6 Insurance & the low carbon economy = enable decarbonisation - Climate Change - Where are we? - What are your clients faced with? - What does that mean for insurance? - Discussion WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

7 EU communications on a low carbon 2050 roadmap DG Climate 2011, Roadmap moving to a competitive low carbon economy 2050 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

8 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

9 Reduction components: 1) efficiency, 2) renewabels & 3) further measures Mio. t CO2-Äqu. ggü ,000 Energy efficiency Andere Landnutzung und Forsten Landwirtschaft Abfallwirtschaft Industrieprozesse Brennstoffwechsel (fossil) Elektrifizierung Erneuerbare Energien Andere Energieeffizienz Effizienz Gebäude Effizienz Stromanwendung Nachfragen Renewables Other measures Innovations-Szenario Referenz-Szenario Modell Deutschland Add l reductions: add l biofuels/biogas, CCS EE RES Other Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

10 Mio. t CO2-Äqu. ggü Emission reduction contributions - a fresh look at priorities is needed - the appropriate timing of modernization is key for 60% of reductions if one reflects the long-living capital stocks ,000 Less long-living capitral stock Land-use (change) and forestry Agriculture Waste sector Industrial processes Fuel switch (fossil fuels) Electrification Renewables Efficiency other applications Efficiency buildings Efficiency electric appliances Demand patterns WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF st March Innovation Scenario Reference Scenario Blueprint Germany 60%

11 The Blueprint Germany project at a glance Available: sufficient technologies and options will be available to reduce GHG emission by 95% compared to 1990 in a highly industrialized country Achievable: a 95% GHG emission reduction can be achieved if the windows of opportunity are used (60% of reduction is related to long-living capital stocks) if the necessary innovation is triggered (60% of reduction depends on innovative technologies and options) Affordable: 0.3% of GDP on average, 0.6% at the maximum All sectors must deliver significant emission reductions, key role of power, industry and transport However, Uncomfortable debates emerge: biofuels, CCS, central and decentral lock-ins WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

12 Dax 30 companies in a -95% scenario WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Trucost for WWF st March 31 st 2011 March

13 Current regulation is misguiding! WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Trucost for WWF st March 31 st 2011 March

14 Companies are reacting even worse - Strategies & future risks/opportunities vs. set targets WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Trucost for WWF st March 31 st 2011 March

15 Insurance & the low carbon economy = enable decarbonisation - Where are we? - What are your clients faced with? - What does that mean for insurance? - Discussion WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

16 Insurance & the low carbon economy = roles to enable decarbonisation - enable individuals and businesses to take more intelligent risks - Enable day-to-day risk management for businesses via pricing and availability of insurance - (re-)directing capital to enable adapting to changing circumstances by adequately and correctly integrating risks into decision making To meet that role: Measure and assess risks appropriately price policies & be equipped with capital reserves to cover losses Differences in region, business model/role etc. to be addressed Focus here on decarbonisation WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

17 Insurance & the low carbon economy = need for development - Catching up with customers that are (and will have to) adapting/ adjusting their business models - Being pro-active in adjusting themselves, where needed in a coordinated way - Requires a holistic understanding of CC and the decarbonisation - Need for a framing of the ambition why are we doing this and what is meaningful at what point in time? Insurance underlies the economy in so many ways and enables it to function WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

18 Insurance & the low carbon economy = enable decarbonisation claims insurability losses pricing Investment-portfolio impact (Regulation NAIC) WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp F&C, 2009, own adjustements 31st March 31 st 2011 March

19 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

20 Low Carbon Technology Value Chain Capital needs Insurance roles? WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

21 Insurance & the low carbon economy = enable decarbonisation - Product development link between risk carbon intensity or decarbonisation potential (timing/potential) - Client exposure / profiles / activities / riskiness / data access new perspective on customers required - Liability/ indemnification policies e.g. property developers, - Regulatory respones: NAIC on insurance companies investment portfolios WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

22 New roles, new models Product development Climate change integrated into the business understanding what low-carbon means Commercial ocorrelating risk and carbon profiles oincentivising the link to low carbon, pricing of products and services oadvisory service o Retail Insurance policies low carbon reinstatement Customer needs in a decarbonised world Risk and requirements - understanding Risk hedging/insurance Decarbonisation management Insurance Capital provision and finance New technologies enabling Engage with the industry Risk & price structure must not lead to pricing out of market Risk model adjustements Common understanding as basis for differentiation Engage with public policy Risk & price signal be visible and impact Risk transfer structures for finance / insurance Performance guarantee? o o Financing models Pricing schemes pay as you emit Take action internally decrease the organisation s environmental impact (e.g. decarbonisation strategy building, travel, data centres, etc.) WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

23 Abatement can be broken down by region BAU emissions 2030 GtCO 2 e per year Abatement potential 2030 GtCO 2 e per year Emissions reduction relative to 2030 BAU Percent Emissions reduction relative to 2005 Percent North America* Western Europe** Eastern Europe*** Developed regions -45 to -55% vs BAU -35 to -45% vs OECD Pacific Latin America Rest of dev. Asia Africa Developing regions, forestry -65 to -70% vs BAU -50 to -60% vs China India Middle East Developing regions, non forestry -40 to -55% vs BAU +5 to +35% vs Global air & sea travel SOURCE: McKinsey GHG Abatement Cost Curve 2.0 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

24 and by sector 2030 BAU GtCO 2 e per year Abatement potential 2030 GtCO 2 e per year Emissions reduction relative to 2030 BAU Percent Emissions reduction relative to 2005 Percent Indirect emissions and abatement potential Power Petroleum and gas Power ~10 GtCO 2 e potential -53% vs BAU -60% vs Cement Iron and steel Industrial sectors ~7 GtCO 2 e potential -15 to -40% vs BAU -15 to +60% vs Chemicals Other industry Transport Buildings 4.6 Waste Direct consumer related ~8 GtCO 2 e potential -30 to -90% vs BAU -85 to +35% vs Forestry 7.2 Agriculture Land use related ~12 GtCO 2 e potential -60 to -110% vs BAU -50 to -110% vs SOURCE: McKinsey GHG Abatement Cost Curve 2.0 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

25 Sectors can be further broken down into a set of key levers Power Abatement potential GtCO 2 e per year, ,0 Abatement Key levers potential Renewables (Solar, wind, biomass) 4.0 Nuclear 2.0 CCS 1.7 Petroleum and gas 1,1 CCS 0.4 Energy efficiency 0.3 Cement 1,0 Clinker substitution 0.5 Alternative fuels 0.3 Iron and steel 1,5 Energy efficiency 0.5 Co-generation 0.3 Chemicals 2,0 CCS 0.4 Motor systems 0.3 Other industry 1,7 Transport 3,2 ICE improvement, hybrids, EV 1.9 Biofuels 0.5 Buildings 3,5 New build efficiency packages 0.9 Lighting and lighting controls 0.7 Waste 1,5 Waste recycling 0.9 Land fill gas direct use 0.2 Forestry 7,8 Avoided deforestation 3.6 Afforestation/reforestation 2.4 Agriculture 4,6 Grassland management 1.3 Organic soil restoration 1.1 SOURCE: McKinsey GHG Abatement Cost Curve 2.0 WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

26 Example: EU ETS, -1,74%/a (ca.70% by 2050) & benchmarks Example Benchmarking Curve for Hot Metal (Liquid Steel) 2500 CO2 intensity Product benchmark allocation Future best-practice Theoretical minimum -65% target Specific emissions (kgco 2/t) % Plants sorted w.r.t. specific emissions A top 5 CCS/new tech CCS B top 5 CCS/new tech CCS sectoral average -65% -95% WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

27 Steel, Cement - the intelligence is building up Carbon profile in relation to the point in time of investment interference Lock-in effects vs. in-time intervention for efficient and effective strategies How to guide the company, what data and information to provide externally? WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

28 Example: to be consistent with a 2 degree global pathway, EU investment of an incremental EUR 53bn annually by 2015, rising to EUR 85bn by 2030 is needed Incremental capex per year*, EUR billion Buildings Power 8 15 Transport road 5 31 Iron and Steel 4 2 Chemicals 4 3 Other industry 3 3 Waste 2 1 Petroleum and gas 1 2 Forestry 1 0 Cement Agriculture SOURCE: McKinsey GHG Abatement Cost Curve 2.0 Total * Includes Western, Central and Eastern Europe, excludes UK. Aviation and Shipping sectors not considered. WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March

29 Insurance & corporate/retail clients = enable decarbonisation WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March 31 st 2011 March

30 Many Thanks! / WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp Head Low Carbon Business & Finance p: +49 (0) m: +49 (0) [email protected] 2010, WWF. All photographs used in this presentation are copyright protected and courtesy of the WWF-Canon Global Photo Network and the respective photographers. WWF Deutschland Matthias Kopp 31st March