The Contribution of Global Agriculture to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Transcription

1 The Contribution of Global Agriculture to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Dr. Tommy Boland, School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4 tommy.boland@ucd.ie Acknowledge contributions of Dr. Frank O Mara (Teagasc) and Prof. Jimmy Burke (UCD)

2 Silver Bullet??

3 Global issue receiving huge attention from major organisations

4 What is Agriculture? Agriculture is the production, processing, marketing, and use of foods, fibers and byproducts from plant crops and animals. Agriculture was the key development that led to the rise of human civilization. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/agriculture

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6 Overview Past trends and current GHG emissions Agricultural contribution Animals Crops Post farm gate emissions An example Mitigation potential

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8 Global warming potential (GWP) Several gases contribute to greenhouse effect: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC s, PFC s, SF 6 Some gases are better at trapping heat than others All converted to CO 2 equivalent for ease of calculations 1 kg CH 4 = 21 kg CO 2 1 kg N 2 O = 310 kg CO 2

9 Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 % GtCO2-eq/yr Total GHG emissions

10 Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

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12 Global Anthropogenic GHG sources 2004 (IPCC AR4)

13 Average temperature = 15.8 C C 13

14 Recap GHG emissions increased 70% in last 40 years Due to anthropogenic activities CO 2 is the major contributor

15 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Agricultural GHG sources i) enteric fermentation (CH 4 ); ii) manure management (CH 4, N 2 O); iii) rice cultivation (CH 4 ); iv) agricultural soil management (CO 2 CH 4, N 2 O); v) prescribed burning of savannahs (CH 4, N 2 O); and vi) field burning of agricultural residues (CH 4, N 2 O). Emissions from land use change and forestry are excluded.

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17 Global GHG emissions by sector 2004 (IPCC AR4)

18 Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions 8 7 Total agriculture emissions 6 Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq Livestock sector emissions only Denman et al (2007) US EPA (2006) FAO (2006)

19 Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq Denman et al (2007) Total agriculture emissions 6.1 US EPA (2006) FAO (2006) Livestock responsible for c. 80% of agric emissions (FAO, 2006) so non livestock part of emissions 1.7 bt Livestock sector emissions only

20 Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq Denman et al (2007) Total agriculture emissions 6.1 US EPA (2006) FAO (2006) Livestock responsible for c. 80% of agric emissions (FAO, 2006) so non livestock part of emissions 1.7 bt Livestock production including production of feed for animals, production of inputs, transport and processing

21 Emission sources included in FAO (2006) that are not counted in IPCC Agriculture category N fertiliser production 0.04 On farm fossil fuel, feed 0.06 On farm fossil fuel, livestock related 0.03 Deforestation 2.4 Cultivated soils, tillage 0.02 Cultivated soils, liming 0.01 Desertification of pasture 0.1 Processing Transport All figures in billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent

22 Ag contribution to GHG emissions 5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO 2 equivalents per year (10-12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) Methane (CH 4 ) 3.3 Gt CO2 equivalents Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) 2.8 Gt CO2 equivalents Agriculture accounts for 60% of N 2 O and 50% of CH 4 CO 2 emissions are balanced at around 0.04 Gt CO 2 per year **

23 production (2000 = 100) 220 Projected growth of global milk and meat production Bovine meat Ovine meat Milk FAO (2006) World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. (Adapted by O Mara 2011)

24 billion tonnes of CO2 eq Global agricultural emissions - trend and baseline IPCC, 2007

25 GHG Emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq. y-1) GHG Emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq. y-1) There are different trends and drivers in different regions ME&NA SSAfrica S Asia LA&C E Asia 2000 Developing regions : Developed countries, EIT: -12% Developing countries: +32% Developed regions and economies in transition OECD Pac C&E Eur FSU W Eur OECD NA US-EPA (2006)

26 Summary on likely trends in emissions Increasing population will drive increased demand for food, which will increase agricultural emissions from 5.6 to 8.2 b tonnes of CO 2 equivalent (+ 46%) by 2030 Big regional variation FAO projections for 2030 vs Global CH 4 emissions increase by 60% Global N 2 O emissions increase by 50%

27 Recap Ag contributes at least 10% of GHG emissions Variation due to parameters used to asses contribution Deforestation is a major contributory factor Ag the prominent source of CH 4 and N 2 O

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29 Source: EU DG:ARD Statistical and Economic Information 2011

30 The Contribution of Global Agriculture to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: EU DG:ARD Statistical and Economic Information 2011

31 Evolution of GHG Emissions Livestock

32 million tonnes million tonnes Emissions vs output 1990 to 2005 Meat and egg production Bovine Meat Whole milk production Eggs Mutton & Goat Pigmeat Poultry Meat Agric GHG emissions +17% Beef +13% Milk +39% Mutton/goat +31% Pigmeat +44% Poultry meat +102% Eggs +61% Source: FAOSTAT

33 million head Global livestock populations Cattle Buffaloes Sheep Goats FAOSTAT

34 million t CO 2 eq Enteric methane emissions by region Latin America Africa China India Rest of Asia Western Europe North America Non EU FSU Aust/NZ Eastern Europe Middle East Source: EPA (2006) data reworked by O Mara (2011)

35 million t CO 2 eq CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from manure management by region Western Europe China North America Rest of Asia Non EU FSU Latin America India Africa Eastern Europe Aust/NZ Middle East Source: EPA (2006) data reworked by O Mara (2011)

36 percentage Regional share of global milk and ruminant meat energy production and methane GHG emissions (enteric and manure) meat + milk energy Enteric methane Africa Latin America North America Non EU FSU Eastern Europe Western Europe India China Aust/NZ Asia Middle East O Mara (2011)

37 FOOD CHAIN GHG EMISSIONS

38 FAO (2010)

39 Lively (2012)

40 Vermeulen et al. (2012) 1534

41 FAO (2010)

42 FAO (2010)

43 Summary on GHG emissions compared to food output Big regional variation in GHG emissions per unit of food produced 4 most efficient regions produce 46% of worlds milk and ruminant meat, but only contribute 25.5% of enteric methane emissions Does not account for non-food products Hides/wool Draught Social goods such as capital store

44 Mitigation Potential

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46 Economic Mitigation Potential Carbon price (US$/tCO 2 -eq) Economic Potential 2030 (GtCO 2 -eq/yr) Agriculture ( ) ( ) ( ) Emissions Mitigation practices in Agriculture Cropland management; Restoration of organic soils; Restoration of degraded lands; Rice management; Grazing land management 90% of potential is carbon sequestration IPCC (2007)

47 FOOD WASTE

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50 Global food losses and food waste (Save Food, 2011)

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55 Summary Population increase Limited supply of arable land Need to utilise a greater portion of food produced and limit waste

56 Overall summary Agriculture encompasses a diverse range of activities globally GHG contribution from agriculture is significant Range of GHG sources Mitigation potential, but costly Focus on efficiency of nutrient and food utilisation Maximise use of scarce resources