The Source for Maritime Information and Insight
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1 The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Christopher Pålsson, Director Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
2 The set scene Global Redesign - a rapidly changing world Size matters - a matter of size Go Europe! - Europe in the backwater Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
3 Global Redesign: The Old World GDP Growth Slows Down Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved 10.0 Annual GDP Growth, % Avg : 2.3% Avg : 2.1% Updated: USA W. Europe Japan Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
4 Global Redesign: The New World GDP Growth Slows Down Avg : 7.3% Avg : 6.8% Annual GDP Growth, % Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Updated: China India Brazil Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
5 Global Redesign: The Total World GDP Growth Increases Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Annual GDP Growth, % Avg : 2.9% Avg : 3.3% Updated: World Total Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
6 Global Redesign: Rebalance of GDP China the Winner Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved 80 Trillion 2005 US Dollars % 24% % 50% Updated: USA European Union Japan China (excl. H-K) India Brazil Rest of World Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
7 Setting Global Redesign: Rebalance of World Imports World Imports by region, billion tonnes % 16% USA European Union Japan China (excl. H-K) India Brazil Rest of World 38% 26% Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
8 Global Redesign: World Energy Consumption, Main Shipping Demand driver Total energy consumption, Mtoe 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Forecast Total CAGR = 1.7% AP 2.7% Asia Pacific RoW Middle East Europe 2, North America Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
9 Global Redesign: World Energy Consumption, Source Oil is Outpaced by Coal Energy consumption by fuel type, Mtoe 5,000 20,000 4,000 16,000 3,000 12,000 2,000 8,000 1,000 4, Total energy consumption, Mtoe % 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewable/hydro Total (right scale) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
10 Global Redesign Energy Prices Energy prices, $/bbl oil equivalent Oil, Brent ($/bbl) Oil, WTI ($/bbl) GAS, Henry Hub ($/bbl oil eq) LNG, Japan, ($/bbl oil eq) Coal, Newcastle ($/bbl oil eq) Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
11 Global Redesign: Seaborne Trade. China Wins Again 20,000 18,000 Seaborne import, M tonnes 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % p.a. forecast USA EU Japan China India Brazil ROW Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
12 China s share of world commodity consumption Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
13 Gross government debt, % of GDP Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
14 Size matters Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
15 Total world fleet, dwt 2,500 Forecast Total World fleet, M dwt 2,000 1,500 1, May-11 Tanker Bulker & GC Container & Ro-ro Passenger Misc Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
16 Crude oil tanker fleet, dwt Forecast Crude oil tanker fleet, M dwt May ,000+ dwt ,999 dwt ,999 dwt 10-59,999 dwt -9,999 dwt Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
17 Product & prod/chem tanker fleet, dwt Product & chem/prod tanker fleet, M dwt 300 Forecast May ,000+ dwt 20-59,999 dwt 10-19,999 dwt 5-9,999 dwt -4,999 dwt Copyright IHS, 2011 All Rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
18 Dry bulk carrier fleet, dwt 1,400 1,200 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Forecast Bulker fleet, M dwt 1, May ,000+ dwt ,999 dwt 60-99,999 dwt 35-59,999 dwt 10-34,999 dwt -9,999 dwt Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
19 Container fleet, teu Container carrier fleet, M teu May ,000+ teu 5-7,999 teu 3-4,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 1-1,999 teu -999 teu 2010 Forecast 2015 Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
20 Vehicle ro-ro, ceu Forecast Vehicle carrier fleet, Mceu May ,000+ ceu -3,999 ceu Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
21 Cargo ro-ro, lane metres 1,200 Forecast Cargo ro-ro fleet, 1000 lm 1, May ,000+ lm -1,999 lm Copyright IHS, 2011 All rights reserved Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
22 China takes over shipbuilding as well Forecast 100% 90% Total Contracting, share of dwt 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-11 Rest of World Americas Europe Other Asia China Japan South Korea Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
23 New ships still built in Europe Contracting, Europe, Number of Ships 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Forecast Jun-11 Misc. Passenger Container & ro-ro Bulker & GC Tanker Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
24 Go Europe! Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
25 Ships visiting European ports Previous port EEA: 90% Outside: 10% >880,000 port calls per year EEA Port 6.7M dwt Next port EEA: 89% Outside: 11% Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
26 Ships visiting European ports Average duration in port (hours) 35 Min country: Norway 18 Max country: Bulgaria 114 Min vessel type: Ferries 10 Max vessel type (excl yacht, offshore & service): Bulk carriers 80 Average age of ships calling ports 15.3 Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26
27 World fleet control by dwt Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
28 SCA Transforest Östrand Obbola Ortviken 2/v Umeå Husum Sundsvall Iggesund Container Express 1/v Stockholm Helsingborg Tilbury Rotterdam 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
29 Transpaper Transtimber 2/v Kemi Oulo Stora Enso Kotka Stena Forteller 1,5/v Göteborg Immingham DFDS Torline 6/v Lübeck Tilbury DFDS Torline 3/v Zeebrugge Schlingeborg Schieborg Spaarneborg 6/v 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
30 Holmen Paper Hallstavik Bråviken Baltic Excellence 1/v Birka Transporter Baltic News Birka Shipper 3/14 d Chatham Amsterdam Birka Exporter 1/v Lübeck Gdynia 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
31 SSAB Oxelösund TransAgila TransFrej TransOdin 2/v Goole Vejle 2/v Åhus Askö Värmdö Vindö 2/m Pasajes 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
32 Smurfit Kappa Piteå/Haraholmen Balticborg Bothniaborg 1/v Paldiski Terneuzen/Vlissingen 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
33 Husum Umeå Sundsvall Iggesund M-Real och SCA Helena Viola Gorthon 2/v Lübeck Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
34 Bålsta Södra Varberg Karlshamn Mönsterås Brake Terneuzen 1/v 2/m Genoa 1/m Swinoujsci e 1/m Fartyg: Forester Cellus Timbus + spotcharter vid behov 2011 Google-Imagery 2011 Terrametrics Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
35 So.. Global Redesign - a rapidly changing world Size matters - a matter of size Go Europe! - Europe in the backwater Christopher Pålsson Director Copyright 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
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