JAKARTA the CBD Sees No New Supply During 1Q 2013

Transcription

1 1Q 2013 i the knowledge research & forecast report office market report Supply JAKARTA the CBD Sees No New Supply During 1Q 2013 The construction activity in the CBD is seeming to dwindle during 2013; however, this does not mean that the Jakarta office market is starting to weaken. In particular, during 2013, new office stock in the CBD will be very limited. Landlords of the future office buildings scheduled to be completed this year are still testing the waters and are waiting for the right moment to officially launch the projects. In 1Q 2013, there are two office buildings operate, namely Blue Green Office Boutique (in West Jakarta) and Prudential Centre (in South Jakarta) contributing additional space of 51,000 sq m. To date, total office space for the whole Jakarta area was registered at 6.8 million sq m. Projected annual office space for 2013 will be 311,908 sq m, far lower than the total annual supply for 2012 which was 547,070 sq m. Moreover, the total annual supply in 2012 was the largest since During the first quarter of 2013, the average asking base rental rates in the CBD continued to rise increasing by 8% (US$) and 6% (IDR) QoQ. Buildings with US dollar tariffs were recorded at an average of US$33.83/sq m/month while those in rupiah stood at IDR179,429/sq m/month. This increase in rental rates was mainly driven by the scarcity of good quality office space with only a 3% vacancy rate in the CBD. On the strata-title front, average asking prices for both US dollar and rupiah building have gone up modestly by around 2% QoQ to US$3,375/sq m and IDR28.4 million/sq m, respectively. The total additional 311,908 sq m during 2013 will be contributed by 18 office buildings comprising two big projects and six small projects in the CBD. Meanwhile outside the CBD area, only two office buildings is of notable size, while the remaining eight projects are relatively small to medium size projects. Of this total space available in 2013, only around 10% are marketed as strata-title office space. Compared to 2012, strata-title offices were the majority, accounting for 67% of the total annual supply in that year. s q m jakarta OFFICE CUMULATIVE SUPPLY 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Existing Supply YTD Annual Supply cbd No new office buildings are ready for operation this quarter and the cumulative supply in the CBD remained at 4.62 million sq m which represents 67.9% of the total Jakarta office supply. Meanwhile, of the 311,908 sq m of Jakarta annual supply in 2013, 46.6% will be contributed by office buildings located in the CBD area which means that there will be 145,332 sq m new, additional supply to operate during this year.

2 Office Sector Most upcoming office space during 2013 will be supplied in the Jalan Satrio and Mega Kuningan sub-markets, contributing around 72% of the total annual supply. This is because two office towers in these sub-markets are sizeable office buildings including DBS Tower (64,000 sq m) and Menara Prima 2 (40,000 sq m). The remaining six office buildings are scattered around Jalan Rasuna Said and Jalan Sudirman with semi-gross areas between 4,000 and 11,000 sq m. The total 2013 office space in Rasuna Said was 27,715 sq m higher than in the Sudirman corridor. In Sudirman alone, three small offices located within an office park in the SCBD area will only deliver 13,617 sq m. These numbers are far below those in the previous year when the Sudirman area contributed 198,519 sq m or 68.5% of the total new supply in Based on marketing scheme, because there will be only 11,000 sq m for strata-title sale, the majority of office space during 2013 will be offered as offices for lease (92%). This situation is mostly due to project scheduling which in 2013 is dominated by offices for lease. Composition of cbd office supply based on grade Grade C, 937,052 sq m Premium, 335,918 sq m Grade A, 1,843,864 sq m Grade B, 1,513,140 sq m cbd office cumulative supply 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 s q m 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, YTD outside cbd The outside the CBD area saw two new office towers operating in 1Q 2013, including Blue Green Office Boutique and Prudential Centre, which brought another 51,000 sq m of office space. Thus, this brings the cumulative supply in the outside the CBD to 2.18 million sq m where 82% are offered as offices for lease. The total annual office space during 2013 will be 166,576, mainly scattered in South (115,976 sq m) and West Jakarta (50,600 sq m). For the last three years, these two regions have been dominating as the main supplier of office space in the outside the CBD area. During 2010 to 2012, there was 486,573 sq m of office space entering the outside the CBD market with 51% in South Jakarta and 29% in West Jakarta. Meanwhile, North Jakarta has been developing into a commercial office area starting in the Kelapa Gading and Pluit areas. Based on marketing schemes, after contributing 143,290 sq m or 55.6% of the total annual supply in 2012, it is projected that there will be only 19,600 sq m of new strata-title office space in p. 2 Colliers International

3 Composition of outside cbd office supply based on grade Grade A, 120,599 sq m Grade C, 1,383,278 sq m Grade B, 676,799 sq m outside cbd office cumulative supply 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 s q m 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , YTD tb simatupang The substantial growth of the office supply in South Jakarta is largely underpinned by the growing commercial activities, particularly in TB Simatupang and Pondok Indah areas. Last year, 60% of the 142,786 sq m of new office supply in South Jakarta was located in TB Simatupang. In 2013, with a projection of 115,967 sq m of office supply in South Jakarta, 73% will be located in TB Simatupang. Since the development of the first strata-title office tower initiated by Sovereign Plaza, the number of strata-title developments continues to grow. To date, the comparison between strata-title and office buildings for lease is 2% : 98% while by the end of 2014, it will be 24% : 76%. p. 3 Colliers International

4 contribution new office supply in tb simatupang to outside cbd 0 50, , , , , , , , ,000 TB Simatupang s q m Outside CBD new supply in While new office stock during 2013 will be in short supply, 2014 will see 613,192 sq m of new office space scattered throughout all of the Jakarta area with 37% located in the CBD area. Thus far, some under-construction buildings scheduled to operate in 2014 have shown significant construction progress, such as Lippo Kuningan (previously known as Life Tower), Gran Rubina and Sinarmas MSIG Tower (previously known as Chase Tower). Meanwhile in the outside the CBD area, 18 Office Park, Manhattan Square, Plaza Oleos and Green Kosmo Mansion (GKM) are expediting the construction progress to meet the completion. Even Beltway Tower 3 has been working on the final stages of their construction. Meanwhile, several office buildings in the pipeline and planned to operate in 2015 have started construction work in In the CBD, International Financial Center (Tower 2) located in Jalan Sudirman has started with ground works. Meanwhile in Jalan Rasuna Said, an office tower called Rasuna Tower is under construction, catching their completion which is scheduled for Two other new developments in Jalan Gatot Subroto, i.e. Office Tower at St Regis and Centennial are preparing for structural work, as well as Bahana Office Tower and Noble House, located in the Mega Kuningan sub-market. annual cbd office supply based on area 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 sq m Thamrin Sudirman Rasuna Said Mega Kuningan Gatot Subroto Satrio Some construction work on future supply scheduled for 2016 has started. In Sudirman, two office towers, i.e. Sahid Sudirman Tower and Icon Tower have started with ground works. In Jalan Senopati, an area next to Sudirman Central Business District (SCBD), future office towers called District 8 (Towers 2 and 3) will flank the existing Office 8 tower and are now starting construction. Colliers International p. 4

5 Having reviewed the construction progress of office buildings scheduled for operations during in the CBD area and should developers commit with the delivery time, supply would strongly achieve a total of 1.63 million sq m of new office space. In the meantime, in the outside the CBD area, during , there will be 840,557 sq m of new office space. Of this figure, 58% will be located along the Jalan TB Simatupang corridor which affirms this area as the main contributor to the office supply in the outside the CBD area. Of the projected 840,557 sq m of future office space mentioned above, 61% has started construction. Again this emphasises that the area of future office space within the next three years will be substantial. annual outside cbd office supply based on area , , , , ,000 sq m Central Jakarta South Jakarta North Jakarta East Jakarta West Jakarta new supply pipeline projected completion time CBD AREA building name location SGA (SQ M) marketing scheme development status* 2013 DBS Tower (Ciputra World Jakarta 1) Satrio 64,000 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Conctruction 2013 Menara Prima 2 Mega Kuningan 40,000 For Lease Under Conctruction 2013 Perkantoran Setiabudi Rasuna Said 11,000 For Strata-title Under Conctruction PARK Tower A Sudirman 4,814 For Lease Under Conctruction PARK Tower B Sudirman 4,570 For Lease Under Conctruction PARK Tower E Sudirman 4,233 For Lease Under Conctruction 2013 Tempo Pavilliun I Rasuna Said 7,075 For Lease Under Construction 2013 Tempo Pavilliun II Rasuna Said 9,640 For Lease Under Construction 2014 Sinarmas MSIG Tower (Chase Tower) Sudirman 75,000 For Lease Under Construction 2014 Gran Rubina Tower 1 Rasuna Said 31,438 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Lippo Kuningan Rasuna Said 30,500 For Lease Under Construction 2014 Satrio Square Satrio 24,600 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 The Noble House Office Tower Mega Kuningan 45,000 For Lease Under Construction 2015 Bahana Office Tower Mega Kuningan 50,000 For Lease Under Construction 2015 Ciputra World Jakarta 2 Satrio 70,000 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Planning 2015 International Financial Center 2 Sudirman 50,000 For Lease Under Construction 2015 Mangkuluhur Tower Gatot Subroto 39,356 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Planning 2015 Menara Selaras Sudirman 36,596 For Lease Under Planning 2015 Office Regis Gatot Subroto 90,000 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2015 Rasuna Tower Rasuna Said 80,000 For Lease Under Construction continued... p. 5 Colliers International

6 new supply pipeline projected completion time building name location SGA (SQ M) marketing scheme development status* 2015 Tower Two at The City Center Sudirman 39,204 For Lease Under Planning continuation District 8 Tower 2 Sudirman 71,545 For Strata-title Under Construction 2016 District 8 Tower 3 Sudirman 139,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2016 Graha Surya Internusa Rasuna Said 45,000 For Lease Under Planning 2016 Graha Surya Internusa 2 Rasuna Said 45,000 For Strata-title Under Planning 2016 Gran Rubina Tower 2 Rasuna Said 32,000 For Strata-title Under Planning 2016 Centennial Tower Gatot Subroto 100,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2016 Sahid Sudirman Center Sudirman 126,600 For Strata-title Under Construction 2016 Satrio Project Satrio 100,000 For Lease Under Planning 2016 Sequis Life Tower 2 Sudirman 80,000 For Lease Under Planning 2016 World Trade Center III Sudirman 70,000 For Lease Under Planning 2016 World Capital Tower Mega Kuningan 90,000 For Strata-title Under Planning 2016 Icon Tower Sudirman 72,500 For Lease Under Construction OUTSIDE CBD AREA (exclude TB SIMATUPANG) 2013 DIPO Business Park Slipi 19,600 For Strata-title Under Construction 2013 The Vida Kebon Jeruk 11,000 For Lease Under Construction 2013 Altira Kelapa Gading 40,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 GP Plaza Slipi 12,204 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Menara Sentraya Blok M 52,072 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 The Suites Pantai Indah Kapuk 13,200 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Wisma 77 Tower 2 Slipi 24,200 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Kirana Two Sunter 17,563 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2015 Gallery West Kebon Jeruk 29,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2015 L Venue Pasar Minggu 41,597 For Strata-title Under Planning 2015 Puri Financial Tower Puri Indah 38,500 For Strata-title Under Construction 2015 Sky Indah 18 Tower Kalibata 27,500 For Strata-title Under Planning 2015 SOHO Capital S. Parman 36,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2015 St Moritz Office Tower Puri Indah 19,500 For Strata-title Under Construction TB SIMATUPANG 2013 Alamanda Tower 33,000 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2013 Gedung Aneka Tambang Tower 2 16,000 For Lease Under Construction 2013 Oleos 2 4,181 For Lease Under Construction 2013 Talavera Suite 17,172 For Lease Under Construction 2013 The CEO 5,023 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2013 Beltway Office Park Tower 3 9,600 For Lease Under Construction 2014 Green Kosmo Mansion (GKM) Tower 23,000 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Metropolitan Tower 44,000 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Plaza Oleos 39,778 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 Palma Tower 20,484 For Lease Under Construction 2014 South Quarter Tower 1 40,778 For Strata-title Under Construction 2014 The Manhattan Square 39,375 For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction continued... Colliers International p. 6

7 projected completion time building name SGA (SQ M) marketing scheme development status* continuation AD Premier 18,900 For Lease Under Planning 2015 Naras Tower 19,000 For Lease Under Planning 2015 South Quarter Tower 2 40,778 For Lease Under Planning 2015 South Quarter Tower 3 40,778 For Lease Under Planning 2015 The Manhattan Square Tower 2 39,375 For Lease Under Planning 2016 Beltway Office Park Tower 4 25,600 For Lease Under Planning 2016 Signum North Tower 18,000 For Lease Under Planning 2016 The Manhattan Square 3 39,375 For Lease Under Planning *) Under Construction: where construction activity is in progress, including either foundation or superstructure. Under Planning: no contruction activities on site but all permits have been approved by the Government. Demand the occupance based on grade in the cbd during qoq period 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C 4Q Q 2013 The occupancy rate was less volatile during the quarter and remained at around 97%. During the quarter, premium class buildings experienced a minor drop in occupancy, but this did not affect the overall occupancy. The premium class buildings set asking rental rates far above the average market causing several tenants to recalculate occupancy costs and forcing them to search for more affordable premises. This made the vacancy rate for premium buildings relatively higher compared to the previous quarter. During the quarter, some office buildings located in Jalan Sudirman and Jalan Rasuna Said reported vacancy ranging from 1,000 sq m to 3,000 sq m. However, the situation did not much worry building owners amid this landlord market. Inquiries for quality office space continue to grow, either from tenant relocation or expansion. In Jalan Sudirman, several transactions were recorded. A multinational technology and services company based in United States will occupy around 4,143 sq m space at an office building owned by Mulia Group. An insurance company established in 1975 will be occupying space of around 1,974 sq m at an office tower within the Metropolitan p. 7 Colliers International

8 Albeit moderately, the overall occupancy rates in the outside the CBD moved up to 93.5% in 1Q Contributing the most office space for the whole outside the CBD area and further, recording an increase in occupancy by 3% QoQ, South Jakarta coloured the overall occupancy rates for the outside the CBD area. As of the reviewed quarter, the average occupancy rate in the outside the CBD area was 94.8%. More specifically, the increase in the overall occupancy in South Jakarta was driven by the occupancy figure in the TB Simatupang and Pondok Indah areas. The occupancy rate in the TB Simatupang area was 97.6% in 1Q Although we noted an oil and gas company downsizing about 60% of their existing space, other office buildings reported increasing occupancy performance. Two mineral and energy based companies acquired office space of around 1,200 sq m and 2,400 sq m while a company specialising in transport maintenance and repairing will occupy around 1,986 sq m of space at an office building located in Pondok Indah. space available and committed in the cbd ( ) Space Absorbed Annual Supply 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 sq m space available and committed in the outside cbd ( ) Space Absorbed Annual Supply 0 100, , , , ,000 sq m p. 8 Colliers International

9 Base Rental; Quite Slow Increasing CBD The average asking base rent for all classes of office buildings within the CBD continued to increase. In 1Q 2013, the average base rent was IDR179,429/sq m/month, climbing by 5.6% compared to the previous quarter. In the meantime, the growth of the average asking base rent for office buildings charging US dollars saw an 8.1% higher increase QoQ. At good quality office buildings, the average asking base rent for buildings charging in US dollars was US$33.83/sq m/month in 1Q There were 14 office buildings charging in US dollars located in Sudirman which introduced higher base rental rates between US$4.00 and It was also noted that four office buildings in Jalan Thamrin increased the average base rent by US$10.00 QoQ. The limited supply of good quality office stock continue to be the main factor triggering the rent increase. average asking rental rates in the cbd based on grade IDR 485,000 $50.00 IDR 388,000 $40.00 IDR 291,000 $30.00 IDR 194,000 $20.00 IDR 97,000 $10.00 IDR 0 Premium Grade A Grade B Grade C $0.00 IDR US$ average asking rental rates in the cbd IDR 388,000 IDR 339,500 IDR 291,000 IDR 242,500 IDR 194,000 IDR 145,500 IDR 97,000 IDR 48,500 IDR 0 $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $ IDR US$ YTD OUTSIDE CBD In the outside the CBD area, office buildings charging in US dollars saw a higher growth of rents during the quarter. The average base rental rate was US$16.71/sq m/month, climbing by 7.8% over the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the QoQ change of base rental rates for office buildings charging in rupiah was relatively flat with an average of IDR123,819/sq m/month. p. 9 Colliers International

10 average asking rental rates in the outside cbd IDR 174,600 IDR 145,500 IDR 116,400 IDR 87,300 IDR 58,200 IDR 29,100 IDR YTD $18.00 $15.00 $12.00 $9.00 $6.00 $3.00 $0.00 IDR US$ tb simatupang Like other areas, average rental rates also rose in Jalan TB Simatupang. Compared to the previous quarter, the average base rent moved upward to IDR119,633/sq m/month reflecting a moderate increase of 2% QoQ. About four office buildings introduced higher rental rates ranging between IDR30,000 and 40,000/sq m/ month. Meanwhile, the average base rent for buildings charging in US dollars saw a significant rent increase of 15% QoQ. To date, the average asking base rent was US$17.82/sq m/month. Around nine office buildings have increased the base rent in the range of US$2.00 to 3.00/sq m/month. Buildings that introduced higher rents during the quarter include Arkadia, Beltway and Menara Talavera. Older buildings which introduced higher rental rates during the quarter have been quite successful in maintaining the quality and performance of the buildings. Another driving factor that suggests developers are becoming more confident is the limited sizeable office stock along Jalan Simatupang. average asking rental rates in tb simatupang IDR 194,000 $20.00 IDR 155,200 $16.00 IDR 116,400 $12.00 IDR 77,600 $8.00 IDR 38,800 $4.00 IDR YTD $0.00 IDR US$ Colliers International p. 10

11 Strata-Title Offices The continued absorption of strata-title office space, both in the CBD and outside the CBD, has led to an increase in the average asking price. The pre-committed space of strata-title office buildings projected to operate in 2013 has reached 100%. Likewise, strata-title buildings projected to operate during 2014 have announced that 34% have been absorbed by the market. Office buildings, such as Gran Rubina and Ciputra World 2, have already recorded a significant pre-committed take-up rate since the buildings were introduced at the end of Meanwhile, for the existing stratatitle office buildings, the take-up rate has been reaching 99%. A significant take-up figure has benefited the developers of new strata-title office buildings. New strata-title office buildings are setting offering prices in the range of IDR30 to 50 million/sq m. For existing strata-title office buildings, the average asking price recently moved upward moderately by 2.2% QoQ to an average of IDR28.4 million/sq m. Meanwhile, for buildings charging in US dollars, the average asking price was relatively flat at US$3,375/sq m. With the majority of office buildings quoting prices in rupiah, the average asking price in the outside the CBD was IDR22.7 million/sq m, experiencing 25% growth YoY. This will likely continue along with the influx of new office buildings which will operate up to These upcoming buildings have been offering asking prices of around IDR25 million/sq m. The total additional new space up to 2015 will be 453,851 sq m, of which 38% has been sold to the market. TB Simatupang is the most active region in supplying future strata-title office for sale. This area will contribute 177,878 sq m of new office space or 49% of the future total strata-title supply during in the outside the CBD area. Of this, 47% has been sold. As of 1Q 2013, the offering average asking price was IDR21.8 million/sq m. the range asking price for strata-title office Outside CBD CBD IDR 0 IDR 10,000,000 IDR 20,000,000 IDR 30,000,000 IDR 40,000,000 IDR 50,000,000 IDR 60,000,000 service charges Basic electricity tariffs and minimum wage increases seem to be starting to affect the service charge tariffs, in particular for office buildings located in the CBD. It is reported that the average service charge for office buildings charging in rupiah rose by 7.8% compared to the previous quarter. As of 1Q 2013, the service charge tariff was IDR61,372/sq m/month. In the office buildings charging rents in US dollars, the average service charge was US$6.54/sq m/month QoQ. Some office buildings located in Thamrin and Sudirman contributed to the overall increase for the quarter. Meanwhile in the outside the CBD area, the average service charge was IDR42,557/sq m/ month for office buildings charging in rupiah while for office buildings charging rents in US dollars, the service charge was quoted at US$5.38/sq m/month. p. 11 Colliers International

12 jakarta 1q 2013 industrial estate Outlook Land scarcity in the CBD has suggested a substantial correction to the overall office space price. As seen in the market, the price of newly built strata-title offices has gone up unreasonably. Likewise, in the secondary market, owners of strata-title office space in prime locations and in good premises offered asking prices arbitrarily, most of the time beyond the average market price. Given the limited amount of quality offices, the leasing market is also quite active in strata-title premises. This will lead to continued absorption of strata-title space with buyers aiming to lease back their space amid the current premium rental rates. This is evidenced not only in the new strata-title office buildings, but also in the secondary market where office space potentially yields a good return. Land scarcity in the CBD will be a blessing for other areas, particularly those with direct access to the CBD. In the west, Jalan S. Parman has been populated with some good-quality office buildings as well as in the east side of the downtown where Jalan MT. Haryono is becoming an office space contributor. The increasingly high office prices in the CBD have an impact on the office prices of these two growing areas after the CBD and Jalan TB Simatupang. With limited supply projections during 2013 in the CBD, a landlord s market situation will remain. Consequently, both office prices and rental rates are projected to further move ahead this year. 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 $2 billion in annual revenue square meter under management Over 13,500 professionals COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA: World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel FAX Michael Broomell Managing Director World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel ext 131 FAX Ferry Salanto Associate Director, Research World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel ext 134 FAX [email protected] Copyright 2012 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has bee made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Accelerating success.