DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX REPORT FIRST QUARTER Accelerating success.

Transcription

1 DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX REPORT FIRST QUARTER 13 Accelerating success.

2 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Dubai Overall House Price Index 4 Alternative Analysis 6 Apartment Index 8 Townhouse Index 9 Villa Index 1

3 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERVIEW The overall quarterly index increased in Q1 13, reaching 138 index points compared with 129 in Q4 12, registering a 7% increase. The apartment and townhouse index registered a quarterly increase each, while the villa index registered a 11% increase. Year-on-Year, the overall index increased 29%. The blended average rate for residential property in Q1 13 is AED 1,226 per ft² compared to AED 1,142 ft² in Q4 12. During the past year, Q1 12 to Q1 13, the indices for apartments increased 31%, townhouses increased 33% and villas increased 25%. The highest number of transactions within the last quarter were seen in Downtown Dubai, the Dubai Marina, the Springs, the Greens and the Arabian Ranches villas. Yearly, the developments that showed the highest increase in prices were the Jumeirah Village (specifically townhouses), Downtown Dubai, the Green Community (villas), and the Jumeirah Beach Residences. OFF-PLAN SALES During Quarter 1 13, the market has seen several off-plan releases from popular developers such as Emaar, Damac and Nakheel. Even though RERA introduced a law in August 12 that aims to regulate the pre-registration, among other aspects, of off-plan sales, many initial buyers have been seen selling the properties hours after their purchase. The initial buyers have then sold them through online sales portals with premiums ranging between With these offerings, speculative transactions have become more frequent among the secondary market with premiums of 3 5%. Mortgages, however, have had little role in these transactions with the dominating investors being cash buyers. In order to prevent these short-term speculators from flipping properties, developers have factored in strict clauses in the original sales and purchase agreements (SPAs); with Emaar limiting sales until after they have collected 4 of the installment proceeds within a year of selling the unit. Regardless, many investors agree that buying off-plan remains risky. 3 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

4 Index Points Index Points HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI DUBAI QUARTERLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX DUBAI QUARTERLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX The Quarterly Dubai House Price Index showed a total increase of 9 points in Q1 13 reflecting a 7% increase. However, the blended average rate for residential property in Q1 13 is AED 1,226 per ft² compared to AED 1,142 ft² Q4 12. DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX: QUARTERLY % % 12% 1 8% 3% 4% 2% -1% - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Index Points -2% DUBAI YEAR ON YEAR HOUSE PRICE INDEX DUBAI YEAR ON YEAR HOUSE PRICE INDEX The Annual Dubai House Price Index increased 29% in Q1 13. The blended average rate for residential property in Q1 13 was AED 1,226 per ft² (AED 13,192 per m²) compared with AED 949 per ft² (AED 1,2 m²) in Q1 12. DUBAI HOUSE PRICE INDEX: YEAR ON YEAR 1 35% % % 2 15% 1 - Q1-12 Q1-13 Index Points 5% 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

5 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI DUBAI QUARTERLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX DUBAI QUARTERLY HOUSE PRICE INDEX (CONT D) During the period between Q3 1 and Q1 12, the index had remained relatively stable with a variance of +/- 2 points from the average 17. During Q2 12, the index showed a significant increase of 11 points to reach 118, continuing on to Q3 12 to reach 125 points, followed by a 3 point increase in Q4 12 to reach 129. This quarter, the index increased a total 9 points to reach 138 points. We have again seen large rises in specific areas over the past year. These specific increases and the overall increase this quarter in the index can be attributed to: 1 - AVAILABILITY OF FINANCE Several mortgage providers have reduced interest rates on mortgage loans and are currently more active in the market. Interest rates in today s market range between 3.95% - 7%. Lenders are offering attractive mortgage packages and special offers such as free valuations and free maintenance for one year. Loan to value (LTV) ratios are also increasing, with banks offering up to 85% LTV in addition to extending the loan period up to 3 years. 2 - UNREST IN THE ARAB REGION Some commentators and analysts feel that some of the increased demand in the market can be partially attributed to the unrest in the region and the status of Dubai as a safe haven. Informally real estate brokers have reported a significant number of cash transactions placing pressure on prices and availability within the specific demand areas. 3 - IMPROVED SENTIMENT The perception by many, supported by this HPI, that the market bottomed out and that the worst is behind had positively impacted sentiment of investors and endusers which translated into improved demand. Investors and end-users have now postponed purchases for several years but after observing stability for a couple of years now have confidence to buy especially in established villa and townhouse communities. The popularity of developments by trusted developers, specifically Emaar, have been well maintained, possibly reflecting purchasers desires for security rather than speculative investments in more uncertain projects. 4 - BETTER ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Improvements in the regional economies and improved future outlook had increased the job security amongst the long-term expatriate workforce, which in turn, affected demand positively. 5 - IMPROVED STATUS OF COMPLETE DEVELOPMENTS The majority of the current demand for residential property is channeled towards developments which are well established with no ongoing construction works. These developments are able to capture the demand due to several factors, most important of which is liquidity. As mortgage lenders limit finance to completed developments, demand is further increased for both cash and mortgage purchasers, as they take into consideration the ease of liquefying their asset once bought. 5 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

6 Change in Investment Worth HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS REAL ESTATE RETURNS DFM / HPI Comparison Volatility of Returns - Quarter on Quarter 6 In Q1 13, the DFM performed positively, increasing 13% of its value while the HPI has seen a increase in performance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q DFM HPI DFM / HPI Comparison Investment Performance 25 As shown in the chart below, the HPI has, since its inception in Q1 7, outperformed the DFM index. In this regard, a residential investment purchased in Q1 7 has, to date over the six year period, generated returns of circa 38%. A similar investment in the DFM for the same period has generated losses as high as 51% in Q1 13, up from 64% recorded in Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q DFM HPI 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

7 Value HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI Price to Rent Ratio ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS PRICE TO RENT RATIO To provide further analysis of the residential real estate market, Colliers International introduced the concept of Price-to-Rent ratio (PRR). This ratio is widely used as an indicator of the fundamental value, generated from rental income, of real estate assets. The ratio simply measures the relationship between the prices (taken from the HPI) of purchasing a residential property and the rental income. A high property price associated with a flat rental market (as in most western markets) increases the value of the ratio, indicating that property values are expensive; the higher the ratio is away from its long run average indicates the onset of a market price bubble. However if rents are falling there would be the expectations of a greater fall in property prices as investors receiving less income would pay less for residential property. For the purpose of this analysis, Q2 7 is assumed as the base quarter and the ratio is rebased at 1(Q2 7 = 1). The ratio, in Q1 13 decreased, standing at compared to 1.41 in Q4 12. The long term average (excluding the mid-8 boom) stands at 1.28, meaning that in Q1 13 the average is 1.4% above the long term average. When comparing the ratio during this quarter (Q1 13) to the ratio in Q1 12, there has been a total 9% increase, indicating a rise in prices. However, when comparing the ratio in Q4 12 to Q1 12, there has been a 1 increase, which indicates that prices sharply increased during Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

8 Index Points Index Points HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI APARTMENT INDEX YEAR ON YEAR The Annual Overall Apartment Index increased 31% in Q1 13, compared with Q1 12, increasing to 129 points from 99 points. The blended average rate per ft² for apartments in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,38 (AED 14,79 per m²) compared with AED 999 (AED 1,756 per m²) in Q1 12. APARTMENT INDEX: YEAR ON YEAR % 35% % 2 15% 1 QUARTERLY Q1-12 Q1-13 Index Points 5% The Quarterly Overall Apartment index saw a increase in Q1 13 compared to Q4 12. The blended average rate per ft² for apartments in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,38 (AED 14,79 per m²) compared with AED 1,238 (AED 13,325 per m²) in Q4 12. APARTMENT INDEX: QUARTERLY % % 1 8% 7% 4% 2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Index Points -2% 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

9 Index Points Index Points HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI TOWNHOUSE INDEX YEAR ON YEAR The Annual Overall Townhouse Index increased 33% in Q1 13, compared with Q1 12, increasing to 131 points from 98 points. The blended average rate per ft² for townhouses in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,36 (AED 11,148 per m²) compared with AED 777 (AED 8,362 per m²) in Q1 12. TOWNHOUSE INDEX: YEAR ON YEAR % 35% % 2 15% 1 5% Q1-12 Q1-13 Index Points QUARTERLY The Quarterly Overall Townhouse index saw a increase in Q1 13 compared to Q4 12. The blended average rate per ft² for townhouses in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,36 (AED 11,148 per m²) compared with AED 978 (AED 1,527 per m²) in Q4 12 TOWNHOUSE INDEX: QUARTERLY % 131 8% 4% 2% -2% -4% -5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Index Points - 9 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

10 Index Points Index Points HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI VILLA INDEX YEAR ON YEAR The Annual Overall Villa Index increased 25% in Q1 13, compared with Q1 12, increasing to 1 points from 128 points. The blended average rate per ft² for villas in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,155 (AED 12,429 per m²) compared with AED 925 (AED 9,959 per m²) in Q1 12. VILLA INDEX: YEAR ON YEAR % 27% 24% % 18% 15% 12% 9% 3% QUARTERLY Q1-12 Q1-13 Index Points The Quarterly Overall Villa index saw an 11% increase in Q1 13 compared to Q4 12. The blended average rate per ft² for villas in Dubai in Q1 13 was AED 1,155 (AED 12,429 per m²) compared with AED 1,41 (AED 11,9 per m²) in Q4 12. VILLA INDEX: QUARTERLY 1 35% % 14% 2 11% 15% 1 4% 5% - -5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Index Points -1 1 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL, UAE

11 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q1 13 DUBAI 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents Australia & New Zealand: 157 United States: EMEA: 85 Canada: 42 Asia: 38 Latin America: $1.94 billion in annual revenue 1.1 billion square feet under management 13,5+ employees ABOUT THE INDEX The Colliers International House Price Index (HPI) was established in January 8 by Colliers International UAE and six leading banks / financial institutions in the Emirate of Dubai provide statistics specifically aimed at reflecting the average growth / decline in the rate of house prices across certain foreign ownership areas in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The data that forms the basis of the indices presented in the HPI has been provided by all the member financial institutions and relates to properties which have been mortgaged through these member institutions. The weighted average method is used to construct the Overall Index. Based on coverage of 18 developments in Dubai, the weighting has been apportioned on the basis of unit type (Apartment, Villa or Townhouse). Apartments, Villas and Townhouses have been weighted at 55%, 34% and 11% respectively in order to provide an accurate representation of market trends. DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Colliers International Al Shafar Tower 1 TECOM Dubai United Arab Emirates TEL FAX Catherine Clarke Director Head of Residential Valuations catherine.clarke@colliers.com Ian Albert Regional Director Middle East ian.albert@colliers.com The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

12 Accelerating success.