Vacancy Down, Rental Rates Up
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1 Research & Forecast Report ST. LOUIS OFFICE First Quarter 2016 Vacancy Down, Rental Rates Up Business as usual for the St. Louis office market during first quarter Suburban office continues to drive the market with the majority of activity located in the Clayton submarket. Overall vacancy for the region stands at 14% currently, a bit high compared to other Midwestern markets but down from 15.4% a year ago. With large blocks of space (50,000 square feet or more) in limited supply, Class A vacancy landed at 11.4% at the end of first quarter 2016, down from 12.5% year-over-year. Market Indicators Q Q Q FORECAST VACANCY CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE Vacancy & Rental Rates Construction in the region remains centered around build-to-suits. Currently, World Wide Technology is building a 210,000-squarefoot facility in the Westport submarket. Additionally, BJC and Washington University are building a 510,000-square-foot office tower in St. Louis City. Last November, a $68 million, 14-story, 233,000-square-foot speculative office tower was proposed for the Clayton submarket. This project is expected to break ground in May This is the first office spec building announced in many years, an encouraging sign for the region. $18.80 $18.70 $18.60 $18.50 $18.40 $18.30 $ % 18% 16% 14% 12% Key Takeaways from Q $ Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 10% St. Louis office market sales activity continued to perform well from the end of 2015 into the first quarter of 2016 with over 400,000 square feet traded. Employment Direct Avg Rent Overall Vacancy Rate Rental rates in St. Louis increased by $0.24 a square foot year-over-year. Currently, average rental rates stand at $18.68 per square foot for all inventory and at $21.80 per square foot for Class A property. Approximately 190,000 square feet is available in the market for sublease. About 40% of this availability is attributed to Boeing putting 75,000 square feet of office space on the market for sublease during first quarter In March 2016, the U.S. economy added 215,000 jobs with growth expected to continue. Wage growth is also up, at $25.43 an hour at the end of March. This is a $0.56 increase year-over-year or 2.3%. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, both job and wage growth surpassed expectations this last reporting period. However, economists warn that wages should be growing at the similar pace as jobs. Ideally, a wage growth of between 3.0 to 3.5 percent is needed to lift inflation to the Federal Reserve s 2.0 percent target.
2 Submarket Snapshot Greater St. Louis Region MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY (SF) OVERALL VACANT SF OVERALL VACANCY % VACANT SF VACANCY % OVERALL NET (YTD) NET (YTD) AVERAGE RENT CLASS A St. Louis City 5,131, , % 828, % 29,608 29,608 $18.72 Clayton 4,608, , % 353, % 39,844 31,468 $26.64 Westport 938, , % 212, % 5, $22.32 Olive/ I-270 2,297, , % 237, % 8,262 22,275 $24.22 Chesterfield 4,311, , % 301, % (64,843) (59,700) $26.55 Manchester/ I ,634 55, % 55, % 53,188 53,188 $23.39 I-44/ I ,127 5, % 5, % (1,642) (1,642) $23.12 Earth City 1,613, , % 135, % 0 0 $20.35 Airport 715,275 47, % 47, % 1,804 1, St. Charles County 968, , % 168, % 10,899 10,899 $19.53 Class A Totals 21,909,490 2,501, % 2,346, % 82,892 88,799 $21.80 CLASS B St. Louis City 4,383,660 1,208, % 1,205, % 1,818 4,669 $13.43 Clayton 3,291, , % 336, % 12,200 12,200 $19.22 Westport 2,014, , % 370, % 57,824 57,824 $17.50 Olive/ I-270 3,413, , % 421, % 2,684 2,684 $17.59 Chesterfield 2,153, , % 307, % (37,787) (37,787) $19.49 Manchester/ I-270 1,157, , % 106, % 2,161 2,161 $18.36 I-44/ I-270 2,600, , % 186, % 3,019 3,019 $19.68 Earth City 1,174, , % 167, % (33,405) (33,405) $16.05 Airport 1,235, , % 285, % 0 0 $13.97 St. Charles County 1,437, , % 170, % 18,556 18,556 $13.05 Class B Totals 22,861,915 3,591, % 3,557, % 27,070 29,921 $16.19 CLASS C St. Louis City 2,004, , % 471, % (925) (925) $13.40 Clayton 545,033 67, % 67, % 3,150 3,150 $17.24 Westport 48,100 3, % 3, % 2,700 2,700 $14.08 Olive/ I ,678 34, % 34, % 6,036 6,036 $14.71 Chesterfield 68, % 0 0.0% Manchester/ I ,322 3, % 3, % 0 0 $16.37 I-44/ I ,889 22, % 22, % 1,350 1,350 $16.39 Earth City Airport 55,462 3, % 3, % 0 0 $11.40 St. Charles County 370,995 72, % 72, % (1,349) (1,349) $13.75 Class C Totals 3,548, , % 678, % 10,962 10,962 $14.09 MARKET TOTALS 48,320,387 6,771, % 6,582, % 120, ,682 $ Research & Forecast Report Q St. Louis - Office Colliers International
3 Q Leasing & Sales Activity Notable Sales Comps PROPERTY SUBMARKET PRICE SF PRICE SF CLASS 100 Richmond Center St. Charles County $7,000,000 71,280 $98.20 A 1501 Washington Ave* St. Louis City $4,500, ,000 $32.14 C 900 Hornet Dr Airport $2,200,000 60,832 $36.17 B 4236 Lindell Blvd St. Louis City $1,455,000 43,506 $33.44 C 390 S Woodsmill Rd Chesterfield Undisclosed 80,982 Undisclosed B *will be converted into multifamily Notable Lease Transactions TENANT SUBMARKET PROPERTY RSF CLASS TYPE Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis City 500 N Broadway 56,000 A New Lease Anders CPA St. Louis City 800 Market St 20,298 A Expansion Nike Clayton 1 N Brentwood Blvd 12,916 A New Lease Flat World Supply Chain St. Charles 2342 Technology Dr 12,057 A Expansion Historic Leasing & Sales Activity Square Feet 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Q Takeaway Stats Q Q YOY % CHANGE Overall Vacancy 15.4% 14.0% -9.0% Direct Asking Rents (PSF) $18.44 $ % 200, Q16 1Q15 1Q14 1Q13 1Q12 Class A Rents (PSF) YTD Leasing Activity (SF) $21.75 $ % 651, , % QTR LEASING ACTIVITY *(no Renewals!) *leasing activity does not include renewals QTR SALES ACTIVITY Under Construction (SF) 180, , % 3 Research & Forecast Report Q St. Louis - Office Colliers International
4 Greater St. Louis Region SUBMARKET MAP N ST. LOUIS CITY # of Buildings - 80 CHESTERFIELD # of Buildings - 86 AIRPORT # of Buildings - 29 CLAYTON # of Buildings MANCHESTER/ I-270 # of Buildings - 45 ST. CHARLES COUNTY # of Buildings - 95 WESTPORT # of Buildings - 50 I-44/ I-270 # of Buildings - 67 OLIVE/ I-270 # of Buildings EARTH CITY # of Buildings Research & Forecast Report Q St. Louis - Office Colliers International
5 $2.5 billion in annual revenue 66 countries 2.0 billion square feet under management MARKET CONTACT C. Kevin Gallagher, CCIM, SIOR Executive Vice President and Managing Director St. Louis REGIONAL AUTHORS Allison Gray Director of Research Pam Boelhauf Director of Marketing & Public Relations Colliers International St. Louis 101 S. Hanley Road, Ste St. Louis, MO USA ,000 professionals and staff 80,000 lease/sale transactions $112 billion total transaction volume About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is an industry leading global real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 11 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com/stlouis Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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