Automated Predictive Analysis. Tomer Steinberg

Transcription

1 Automated Predictive Analysis Tomer Steinberg

2 Analytics solutions from SAP SAP Analytics Portfolio Cloud Mobile Agile Visualization Advanced Analytics Big Data Enterprise Business Intelligence Collaboration 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 2

3 Advanced Analytics Advanced Agile Visualization Advanced Analytics Analytics Enterprise Business Intelligence 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 3

4 Challenges Solution Benefits Hard to use Simpler Faster time to value Quick win Boost adoption Big Data made easy Embeddable Answer more business questions Cannot analyze Big Data Time-consuming Adapt and innovate at market speed Not actionable Bridge the skills gap

5 Use Customer Examples Retail 14% ROI with a 8.5% increase in travel sales 10% improvement in sales forecasts 220% increase in campaign responses Banking Reduce e-fraud over 1 B$ annual transactions 5x increase in response rates 7x response rate vs. control group Telco 260% increase in campaign response rates 3% decrease in monthly churn rate 700 models for churn and X-sell

6 Success With Over 500 Leaders Around the World Telecom Finance Retail e-business MSP Media Public Sector Energy & Mfg 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 6

7 Model Industrialization Each step of the process has been automated In-database Automated Dataset Production Automated model creation Classification Regression Clustering Forecasts In-database Deployment Deployment in other apps Model productionization Control Recalibration Batch production 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 7

8 What applications? Acquisition targeting Churn reduction Cross Sell / Up Sell Winback campaigns Viral campaigns Segmentation CRM Risk Credit scoring Collection Crime/Terrorism KPI forecasting Anomaly detection (QA) Usage forecasting Predictive maintenance Operations Fraud Money laundering Credit card fraud Online gaming fraud Insurance fraud 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 8

9 What are we talking about? Classification Who will (buy fraud churn ) next (week month year )? Regression How will the (revenue # churners) be next (week month..)? Forecasting 3 types of results: How will the (revenue # churners ) be over next year on a monthly basis? P Value Recommendation engines Provides recommendations on websites Group or to retailers Segmentation What are the groups of customers with similar (behavior profile )? Link Analysis Analyze interactions to identify (communities influencers ) 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 9

10 Propensity Modeling Business goal 1 2 Predict products likely to be purchased Build target lists SAP approach Classification models in hours not days 360 view: 00 s or 000 s of variables No parameters to understand and tune Score customers in-database Build as many models as campaigns/offers Refresh models as often as needed 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 11

11 Recommendation Engine Business goal 1 Product recommendation KXEN approach Personalized recommendations based on user (vs. generalized recommendation) Weights multiple rulesets Scales to unlimited SKU s 2 Friend recommendation Builds communities of individuals with similar interests or behaviors 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 13

12 SAP Infinite Insights Link analysis & Recommendations There is unused useful information in links Analysis of entity-to-entity links Telecom: improved churn detection, viral propagation of events, rotational churn and MultiSIM detection Network analysis Public Security Fraud detection on multi-actor claims (e.g. social security) Analysis of people-to-product links Recommendation engines with enhanced market Basket Analysis Analyse automatically, produce new data to improve quality of any other predictive analytics application 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 14

13 Visualization of the Network 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 15

14 Demand Forecasting Business goal 1 Optimize the flow of merchandise through the demand chain KXEN approach Automated forecasting analysis Forecast monthly / daily sales and/or inventory Include macro variables (e.g. economic, weather, etc.) 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 16

15 SAP InfiniteInsight Architecture Model Scoring SQL code for Automated Link Analysis Dataset In-database Regression Product production Influencers Production recommandations Other Segmentation languages for realtime Communities Text coding Forecasting purposes Productionization Automated control & maintenance Dataset automation SQL Code To real time environments 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 17

16 Allegro Boosts Click-through Rates by 500% 80M+ daily personalized product recommendations Response time < 200ms Boosted e-commerce KPI s: Page views per visit up 30% Click-through rates up 500% Conversion rates up 40x compared to bestseller rules Build social graphs from: 20M+ unique website visitors 15M listed products 500M daily page views 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 18

17 HMV Delivers Personalized Offers Across Channels 140% increase in first year revenue Completing queries on 60M items of data and over 2M customers in 30 seconds Overall performance increased nearly 40% Sybase IQ and InfiniteInsight are indispensable now to our business. - Hideki Ichikawa IT Systems Development Manager, 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 19

18 SAP Delivers Insight Faster and Easier Automated Productive Industrial BigData Web & Social Media Time to Market Everything you need to optimize Control over the whole process We needed a solution that would allow us to scale with the hyper growth of our business. - Rafał Kudliński BI Director 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 22

19 Thank you!