Electric Vehicles and their

Transcription

1 Electric Vehicles and their Renewable Connection How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution Electric cars - Now! Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series 10 June 2009 Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute PB-CUSP Alliance

2 Outline Background Short history of transport and energy systems A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles (EVs) in a new paradigm of sustainable communities Global enabling factors: Lithium-ion batteries Mass-market EVs Smart grids Renewable energy Green stimulus packages Barriers and Opportunities for Australia How is CUSP pursuing this vision?

3 Andrew Background

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6 20 th Century: 21 st Century: Age of the combustion engine Age of the electric vehicle Lower population densities, large travel distances. Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance. Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling VKT, smart growth. Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles. Abundant, indigenous petroleum. Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere. Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses. Global warming hadn t been invented yet Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict. Urban smog and chronic health problems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation. Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets. Electricity provided on-demand Extreme peak demand growth, T&D bottlenecks. Dirty electricity emissions soaked up by atmosphere Mandatory targets for renewable energy

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8 A vision for EVs in sustainable communities Onsite water and renewable energy Smart grid Building efficiency and zero-waste Transit-oriented development Plug-in EVs

9 Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving Distances in Australia Adelaide 98% drive less than 100km Sydney 87% drive less than 100km

10 Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns US VMT plateau in 2006, reducing since 2008

11 Enabling Factor: Travel Patterns 100% Plug In Vehicle Utility Factor 2001 vs % 80% 70% Utility Fact tor 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2001 NHTS 1995 NPTS Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing as typical driving distances reduce. 0% Distance (miles)

12 Enabling Technology: Li-Ion Batteries CARB expert panel (2007): High energy Li-Ion technology has good potential to meet all performance requirements of EVs with batteries of modest weight cell and battery technology designed for these applications are likely to also meet cycle life goals. NB: Not all Li-Ion batteries are created equal.

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15 Li-Ion Battery Charging g and Safety Charging Li-ion ion battery charging rates depend on chemistry and anode/cathode design Most batteries can charge in <60min, some batteries can charge in <10min. Charging supply is usually the bottleneck Safety Li-ion battery safety also depends on chemistry and anode/cathode design The preferred automotive chemistry (Liion nanophosphate) p is inherently safer and cannot go into thermal runaway. Monitoring/management is critical for some other Li-Ion chemistries

16 Enabling Factor: Mass-produced EVs Chevy Volt PHEV 60km Toyota FT-EV 80km Mitsubishi MiEV 125km Mercedes BlueZERO EV 200km Mini EV 240km Ford Focus EV 160km NB: Established car companies don t always get it right.

17 Enabling Factor: New EV Companies TH!NK City EV 180km Aptera 2e EV 160km Tesla Roadster EV 400km BYD E6 EV 300km Fisker Karma PHEV 80km Reva EV 160km NB: There are tremendous barriers to entry for new car companies

18 800, ,000 EV/PHEV Production Ramp Industry Plans for Global Production of EVs and PHEVs Production >600,000 units by , An nnual Produ uction 500, , , EVs PHEVs Total 200, ,000 0 To date

19 EV/PHEV Market Prices Forecast Pricing Distribution for Global Production EVs/HEVs (model launches during ) Median price $42,000 Frequency More Price (AUD)

20 EVs Lower Cost of Motoring Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year ICE HEV PHEV EV Fuel cost $1.00/L Fuel cost $1.50/L Elec cost 5c/kWh Elec cost 20c/kWh Battery degradation Maintenance Totals low $1836 $1291 $1316 $1087 Totals high $2391 $1621 $1689 $ CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80% residual capacity at end of life. 2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004) NB: Innovative business models can amortize EVs higher upfront cost.

21 No oil required for EVs from Garnaut Review (2008) NB: No oil required for EVs = energy independence

22 Greenhouse Emissions Well to Wheel GHG Emissions for Petrol vs Electric Vehicles in Australia Oil shale Tar sands Gas to liquids Coal to liquids Small Sedan Platform Evolution of electricity supply Emissions (gc CO2e/km) Evolution of petroleum supply IGCC CO2 seq. Wind/solar Wave/tidal MRET 20% Electricity Petrol 50 0 ICE 7.4L/100km HEV 4.4L/100km4L/100km PHEV 50% UF EV 185Wh/km NB: Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.

23 Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs Toyota study of Prius HEV a net winner after 20,000km. MIT study of alt. vehicle technologies EVs a net winner compared to ICE.

24 EV Recharging Infrastructure Toyota Industries Better Place Elektromotivee Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point NB: Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.

25 EV Battery Exchange Better Place

26 Enabling Technology: Smart Grids (cars as appliances) Courtesy of EPRI

27 EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Expansion The existing US electricity grid can support a light-duty vehicle fleet that is composed of 73% EVs (160 million). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (2007) Impacts Assessment of Plug- In Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids NB: No new capacity required to support mass-market EVs, but utility-optimized charging is preferred.

28 EVs and Smart Grid: Capacity Factors EVs can increase capacity factors with low marginal cost of electricity supplied. Letendre et al (2006) Electric & Hybrid Cars New Load, or New Resource?

29 EVs and Smart Grid: Ancillary Services Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar market, and are also the most promising application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology. NB: Back-feeding of power is not essential to provide V2G services.

30 EVs and Utilities Utilities that get it are incredibly supportive of EVs Southern California Edison (SCE) Southern California Edison (SCE) Electric Vehicle Technical Center SCE has operated a fleet of 320 Toyota RAV4 EVs since 1998

31 Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) Special EV tariffs Early adopter of pre- production EVs Considering aftermarket for used devb batteries EVs and Utilities

32 EVs and Utilities Xcel Energy Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart charging Comprehensive service territory modelling with NREL

33 EVs and Utilities Electricite de France (EDF) Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and soon, Spain NB: Many utilities are still unfamiliar with EVs.

34 EVs and Smart Grid: V2G Aggregators g Emerging business opportunities for EV aggregators who can pool EV resources, sell V2G services to utilities, and provide new commercial models for EV ownership to consumers. Project Better Place Coulomb Technologies

35 EVs and Smart Grid: Enabling Renewables Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs Doubling of installed wind capacity Short & Denholm (2006) A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets

36 Enabling Renewables: Solar EV Charging g

37 Enabling Technology: Maturing Renewables Hunwick Consultants (2002)

38 Enabling Factor: Green Stimulus Packages $11B for Smart Grids, $6B for Renewables, $2B for Plug-in Vehicles! $2B for Renewables, $1B for Green Cars, $100M for Smart Grids!

39 It might happen first in our backyard! North Port Quay: a carbon-free community development based on renewables, smart grids and electric vehicles.

40 Barriers to EVs in sustainable communities in Australia Lack of plug-in vehicles & components Lack of plug-in infrastructure Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations Misperceptions about EVs Market distortions due to undersupply Lack of green vehicle incentives Regulatory constraints in the utility industry Lack of truly smart grids Lack of foresight in urban planning processes

41 Opportunities for EVs in sustainable communities in Australia Vehicles and charging infrastructure components and systems hardware and software new and retrofit New automotive business models Aggregators of V2G ancillary services Demonstrations and pilot deployments New communities (green and brown-field) Blade Electron (VIC)

42 How is CUSP pursuing its vision? The CUSP team: Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James, Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs Research projects: Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables (Walter James with Western Power) Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids (Andrew Went) Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western Power) Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson) Environmental benefits of EVs (team in conjunction with EV infrastructure provider) Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA, Murdoch and CO 2 Smart) Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion businesses for domestic EV supply Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North Port Quay and Lochiel Park CUSP Discussion Paper: Renewable Transport How Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles using Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free Urban Development

43 From this to this

44 or we ll be stuck with this.

45 Any Questions?