THE EU GAS SUPPLY ENVIRONMENT. An Obstacle to Competition? Dick de Jong, CIEP February 2007

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "THE EU GAS SUPPLY ENVIRONMENT. An Obstacle to Competition? Dick de Jong, CIEP February 2007"

Transcription

1 THE EU GAS SUPPLY ENVIRONMENT An Obstacle to Competition? Dick de Jong, CIEP February 2007

2 Today s Market:Some Observations High gas prices should attract new supplies. Sellers market does not help competition Supply deficit from 2012???? what business model????

3 A changed business environment Higher risks across the business.. (and more profit centers) r < < R..looking for higher rewards, so higher gas prices likely to be a permanent feature

4 A changed business environment Lower Security of Supply S > > s e.g. political, new supplies?, short term contracts, less capacity, less storage

5 A changed business environment Lower Security of Supply S > s..and lower Security of Demand e.g. market structure, uncertain demand outlook

6 US Gas Market The Market Is Working! 1997-Big pool with many players.. and plenty gas.

7 2006: The Market Is Working!? Prices well above the marginal costs of supply Henry Hub prices Henry Hub jan-93 jan-94 jan-95 jan-96 jan-97 jan-98 jan-99 jan-00 jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 $/MBD

8 The Market Is Working? But for whom???? Henry Hub prices Henry Hub $/MBD jan-93 jan-94 jan-95 jan-96 jan-97 jan-98 jan-99 jan-00 jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 not for the consumer

9 The Market Is Working??? 2006-The pool is drying up - who is doing something about it?

10 The Market Is Working? Henry Hub prices Henry Hub jan-93 jan-94 jan-95 jan-96 jan-97 jan-98 jan-99 jan-00 jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 $/MBD..but not hard enough!! Competition exists only in the market

11 US Gas Market Possible causes: Information lacking or lagging Time horizon of the players Structure of the market: Sitting Ducks, waiting for supplies (FERC has lowered barriers to entry )

12 Lessons for Europe? Certainly an Impact on Europe!

13 Development of Natural Gas Supplies in billion m³ 456 4% 11% 24% the EU % per annum 6% 11% 10% 21% % 9% 8% supply gap: ~ BCM/yr advanced projects other non-eu imports Algeria 15% 21% 14% 5% 8% 8% 10% 33% 23% 16% % 15% 17% Russia Norway other EU imports Netherlands indigenous production for domestic use LNG share (in imports) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook

14 Supply Capacities for EU: (bcm/a) (3 dominant suppliers) Norway Russia EU Production Central Asia Middle East Algeria 145 Egypt Libya West-Africa Source: IEA, OME 2004

15 New pipeline supplies more complex Main issues for suppliers: separation of transport and supplies harmonisation of supply and capacity transit in Europe aggregation and security of demand For suppliers and buyers orchestration problematic Examples: Nord Stream, Nabucco

16 New Business Models Vertical integration

17 Strategic challenges and pursuits ( and their underlying rationale) Vertical integration for downstream business : secure access to sources for suppliers : security of demand and control over destination and over arbitrage value of production for both : protection (hedge) against price risk and uncertain market liquidity (cycles between sellers and buyers markets) renewed emphasis on vertical hold is trigger for mergers between gas and electricity companies

18 New Business Models Vertical integration From demand driven..to supply driven

19 Demand-driven vs. producer-driven supply decisions demand-driven (traditional) aggregated orders for identified demand viewed as pre-condition for investment decision supply decisions support and trigger investment in mid-stream infrastructures necessary to bring gas to markets long-term contracts with sharing of price and volume risks provide efficient basis for project finance and security of supply and of demand examples: most Asian and continental European supply projects to-date producer-driven (new trend) investment decision without concomitant sale contracting allows for short-term contracts, particularly if already surplus transport capacity to market induces "self-contracting" by producers, i.e. contracting with own marketing affiliates leading to downstream integration (as done for oil) requires capacity for equity or balance sheet financing (which only financially strong producers can afford) assumes confidence in sustained high level of prices and of market liquidity ( supply sink ) examples: Ormen Lange, Qatar LNG, Nord Stream (hybrid)

20 Downstream positions of external suppliers on European Gas Market

21 Size matters: Success of any energy company is directly related to the size of its business. John Rockefeller has proved it when he created the world s first vertically integrated corporation Standard Oil. Gazprom Journal, September 2006, page 12 Suggesting that the Russian gas monopoly considers Standard Oil a model company.

22 LNG the GameChanger?

23 New trends in the LNG industry Traditionally FOB or CIF sales to gas and power utilities under long-term contracts with dedicated ships. Both buyers and sellers now forcing changes to traditional model, by moving upstream and downstream respectively leading to vertical integration in LNG business. Distinction between traditional sellers and buyers fades. Both buyer and seller are motivated by risk mitigation to secure supply and demand resp. ; up-stream suppliers moving downstream furthermore motivated by destination flexibility and control. High prices induce producers to invest before capacity of (larger) liquefaction trains is entirely sold to third-party customers : they opt to sell equity LNG directly in spot market or via affiliates in downstream markets (self-contracting).

24 Producers need to build commercial teams and develop/acquire trading and risk management skills. Potential conflicts of interest may arise between the (private) integrated partners in LNG projects and the partners that are in upstream/liquefaction part only (often local state-controlled companies). A strategic choice may be required in project design between maximum flexibility (smaller liquefaction trains and ships easier to place in market and access to many ports) or minimum costs (hyper trains and very large ships more rigid and dedicated to a specific market and access to very few ports).

25 LNG the GameChanger? Major role for Europe still to be demonstrated Qatar to UK is self-contracted Other major volumes to EU?????

26 Further Outlook EU will remain dependent on three major gas suppliers Gas pricing and hubs: 25% spot prices in hubs, or 100% spot prices Shifting marginal supply costs

27 Zones of Supply Cost Influences Source: Wood MacKenzie

28 Further Outlook EU dependent on three major gas suppliers Gas pricing and hubs: 25% spot prices in hubs, or 100% spot prices Shifting marginal supply costs More uncertainty over market growth.. power is now the main driver

29 Development of Natural Gas Demand in billion m³ 456 4% 11% 24% the EU % + 2% per annum 11% 10% 21% % 9% 8% supply gap: ~ BCM/yr????? advanced projects other non-eu imports Algeria 15% 21% 14% 5% 8% 8% 10% 33% 23% 16% % 15% 17% Russia Norway other EU imports Netherlands indigenous production for domestic use LNG share (in imports) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook

30 Further Outlook EU dependent on three major gas suppliers Gas pricing and hubs: 25% spot prices in hubs, or 100% spot prices Shifting marginal supply costs More uncertainty over market growth Storage issues

31 Further Outlook EU dependent on three major gas suppliers Gas pricing and hubs: 25% spot prices in hubs, or 100% spot prices Shifting marginal supply costs More uncertainty over market growth Storage issues GASPEC?

32 Further Outlook EU dependent on three major gas suppliers Gas pricing and hubs: 25% spot prices in hubs, or 100% spot prices Shifting marginal supply costs More uncertainty over market growth Storage issues GASPEC? Gas is different from Electricity

Preparing for Changes in Market Design

Preparing for Changes in Market Design Preparing for Changes in Market Design EMART Conference Didier Lebout, Strategy and Development Director Gazprom Marketing and Trading France Amsterdam, 21 November 2012 In this presentation GM&T Ltd:

More information

Russian Gas and European Energy Security : Beyond Clichés

Russian Gas and European Energy Security : Beyond Clichés Russian Gas and European Energy Security : Beyond Clichés World Energy Council Workshop Energy Vulnerabilities in Europe Didier Lebout, Strategy and Development Director Gazprom Marketing and Trading France

More information

Competition pipeline gas vs LNG in Europe

Competition pipeline gas vs LNG in Europe 17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION ON 17 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) ON LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG 17) Competition pipeline gas vs LNG in Europe

More information

Changing Landscape of LNG Business in the APEC Region

Changing Landscape of LNG Business in the APEC Region Changing Landscape of LNG Business in the APEC Region APEC Workshop on APEC Energy Future Ulsan, Korea 22 August 2005 Yonghun Jung, Ph.D Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Tokyo Table

More information

LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39

LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39 LNG Poised to Significantly Increase its Share of Global Gas Market David Wood February 2004 Petroleum Review p.38-39 For the past few years LNG has experienced high levels of activity and investment in

More information

LNG bunkering market perspectives, challenges and trends

LNG bunkering market perspectives, challenges and trends LNG bunkering market perspectives, challenges and trends Moscow 31 March 2015 Sergiu Maznic Full-picture perspective Sund Energy helps navigate into the energy future Energy Economics Environment Learning

More information

The Evolution of the Gas Industry: The Impact on Infrastructure Investments. Daniele De Giovanni SVP Supply Portfolio Development eni Gas & Power

The Evolution of the Gas Industry: The Impact on Infrastructure Investments. Daniele De Giovanni SVP Supply Portfolio Development eni Gas & Power The Evolution of the Gas Industry: The Impact on Infrastructure Investments Daniele De Giovanni SVP Supply Portfolio Development eni Gas & Power 1 Index The role of infrastructure investments in the European

More information

GDF SUEZ. Introduction. Jean-François Cirelli

GDF SUEZ. Introduction. Jean-François Cirelli GDF SUEZ Introduction Jean-François Cirelli Content 1. Focus on gas market dynamics 2. Focus on electricity market dynamics 3. Focus on P&L resilience and sensitivities 4. Focus on synergies and performance

More information

OVERVIEW OF GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE. Andrew Potter World Bioenergy Association

OVERVIEW OF GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE. Andrew Potter World Bioenergy Association OVERVIEW OF GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE Andrew Potter World Bioenergy Association EU Gas Consumption 1965-2007 In 2011 natural gas covered 24% of the primary energy supply in EU 27. The total primary energy demand

More information

Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets

Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets A View of Gazprom Export Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring and Price Formation Gazprom Export Eurasia Dialogue. Securing Security of Demand for

More information

THE GROWING GLOBAL MARKET OF LNG

THE GROWING GLOBAL MARKET OF LNG THE GROWING GLOBAL MARKET OF LNG ISSUES & CHALLENGES Dr Naji Abi-Aad April 2013 The Growing Global Market of LNG Outline Characteristics of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) & its Trade Increasing Volumes of

More information

The client s perspective

The client s perspective Tristram Kennedy Harper Shell International Trading and Shipping Company Limited (Shell Trading) 1. Introduction In this chapter, we examine the development of price review clauses, and the issues that

More information

The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe

The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe Primary funding is provided by The SPE Foundation through member donations and a contribution from Offshore Europe The Society is grateful to those companies that allow their professionals to serve as

More information

European Strategies on Gas Supply Security

European Strategies on Gas Supply Security European Strategies on Gas Supply Security Koji Fujishima * Summary European countries employ different strategies on gas supply security depending on the time scale: while their short-term strategies

More information

Global Gas Price Outlook and Parity. Dianne Nicotra Energy Spot Trader September 2013

Global Gas Price Outlook and Parity. Dianne Nicotra Energy Spot Trader September 2013 Global Gas Price Outlook and Parity Dianne Nicotra Energy Spot Trader September 2013 State of the Natural Gas World Fastest growing fossil fuel Rapid growth in developing countries Traded via pipeline

More information

South Stream Project

South Stream Project South Stream Project Roberto Gregori Assistant to the Program Manager South Stream Eni Gas & Power Division UNECE Energy Week Investing in Energy Security 16th Session Committee on Sustainable Energy and

More information

A new electricity market for Northern Ireland and Ireland from 2016 - Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM)

A new electricity market for Northern Ireland and Ireland from 2016 - Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) A new electricity market for Northern Ireland and Ireland from 2016 - Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) Non-technical summary High level design Draft Decision Paper SEM -14-047 June 2014 1 INTRODUCTION

More information

Statoil s Gas Business. Jan Rune Schøpp, SVP, Natural Gas - Strategy and Analysis Oslo, 17 November 2009

Statoil s Gas Business. Jan Rune Schøpp, SVP, Natural Gas - Strategy and Analysis Oslo, 17 November 2009 Statoil s Gas Business Jan Rune Schøpp, SVP, Natural Gas - Strategy and Analysis Oslo, 17 November 2009 A challenging gas market Reduced UK industrial demand, similar reductions through out Europe Increased

More information

DECC Fossil Fuel Price Projections

DECC Fossil Fuel Price Projections DECC Fossil Fuel Price Projections October 2012 DECC Fossil Fuel Price Projections Introduction 1. This note presents an update to DECC s long-term price projections for oil, gas and coal. Last year an

More information

Natural Gas as Solid Foundation for Russia-Italy Economic Cooperation

Natural Gas as Solid Foundation for Russia-Italy Economic Cooperation Natural Gas as Solid Foundation for Russia-Italy Economic Cooperation Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring and Price Formation Gazprom Export Italy-Russia Industry Seminar, Milano, February 26, 2014

More information

The Economic Aspect: Gas prices today and going forward, wholesale and impact on retail prices for LNG as a bunkering fuel

The Economic Aspect: Gas prices today and going forward, wholesale and impact on retail prices for LNG as a bunkering fuel The Economic Aspect: Gas prices today and going forward, wholesale and impact on retail prices for LNG as a bunkering fuel Small-scale LNG distribution for coastal and short-sea shipping Denmark May 2014

More information

Outlook for the Natural Gas Industry

Outlook for the Natural Gas Industry Outlook for the Natural Gas Industry World consumption of natural gas continued to climb in 2007, but with significant variations depending on the geographical region. The market is expected to keep growing

More information

Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance

Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance Fact Sheet 1: September 2012 Supply Constraints Ahead for Gas Natural gas is essential for Australian industry. It is used as an

More information

NATURAL GAS MONETISATION O PATHWAYS FOR CYPRUS

NATURAL GAS MONETISATION O PATHWAYS FOR CYPRUS Workshop on Fiscal challenges of Hydrocarbon Exploration in Cyprus 18 Dec 2013, Nicosia NATURAL GAS MONETISATION O PATHWAYS FOR CYPRUS Nestor Fylaktos The Cyprus Institute The MIT-CyI Study Study was commissioned

More information

Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011

Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011 LNG terminal Montoir, France Oil & Gas Conference - Cheuvreux October 14 th, 2011 Jean - Marie DAUGER Executive Vice-President, in charge of the Global Gas & LNG Business line DISCLAIMER Forward-Looking

More information

LNG, A GLOBAL COMMODITY AND THE GREEK CASE. Panayotis Kanellopoulos Executive Director, Head of Natural Gas

LNG, A GLOBAL COMMODITY AND THE GREEK CASE. Panayotis Kanellopoulos Executive Director, Head of Natural Gas LNG, A GLOBAL COMMODITY AND THE GREEK CASE Panayotis Kanellopoulos Executive Director, Head of Natural Gas LNG, A Global Commodity LNG accounts for a relatively small amount of total gas exports, around

More information

The interplay of physical and financial layers in today's oil markets

The interplay of physical and financial layers in today's oil markets Master of Advanced Studies in International Oil and Gas Leadership The interplay of physical and financial layers in today's oil markets Giacomo Luciani IEA Energy Training Week Paris, April 5, 2013 The

More information

LNG sale and purchase agreements

LNG sale and purchase agreements LNG sale and purchase agreements Susan Farmer Fulbright & Jaworski LLP Harry W Sullivan ConocoPhillips 1. Introduction Long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) sale and purchase agreements are the linchpins

More information

The impact of LNG exposure on Australia s eastern gas market. Ross Lambie, LNG18

The impact of LNG exposure on Australia s eastern gas market. Ross Lambie, LNG18 The impact of LNG exposure on Australia s eastern gas market Ross Lambie, LNG18 April 2016 The impact of LNG exposure on Australia s eastern gas market Ross Lambie 13 April 2016, LNG18 Thank you to the

More information

LI LI, CFA BERKELEY RESEARCH GROUP, LLC 1800 M Street NW, 2 nd Floor Washington, DC Direct:

LI LI, CFA BERKELEY RESEARCH GROUP, LLC 1800 M Street NW, 2 nd Floor Washington, DC Direct: Curriculum Vitae LI LI, CFA BERKELEY RESEARCH GROUP, LLC 1800 M Street NW, 2 nd Floor Washington, DC 20036 Direct: 202.747.5066 lili@thinkbrg.com SUMMARY Li Li provides expertise in gas, liquefied natural

More information

The current business context and future role of LNG in Europe. Ulco Vermeulen Executive Director Participations and Business Development

The current business context and future role of LNG in Europe. Ulco Vermeulen Executive Director Participations and Business Development The current business context and future role of LNG in Europe Ulco Vermeulen Executive Director Participations and Business Development EBC, Amsterdam, 31 May 2013 Agenda 1 Current situation LNG market

More information

Secondary and short term natural gas markets International experiences

Secondary and short term natural gas markets International experiences Secondary and short term natural gas markets International experiences Bogotá, 13 th May 2011 Presented by: Dan Harris Principal The Brattle Group Copyright 2011 The Brattle Group, Inc. www.brattle.com

More information

I trend odierni nei mercati oil & gas

I trend odierni nei mercati oil & gas Daslav Brkic Vice President Business Development BU Engineering and Construction Saipem San Donato M.se, 15 maggio 2012 P120515 Big Challenges, Big Opportunities We will need courage, energy, vision 2

More information

NATURAL GAS: CHANGING THE MIDDLE EAST ENERGY LANDSCAPE. Malcolm Brinded EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, UPSTREAM INTERNATIONAL

NATURAL GAS: CHANGING THE MIDDLE EAST ENERGY LANDSCAPE. Malcolm Brinded EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, UPSTREAM INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS: CHANGING THE MIDDLE EAST ENERGY LANDSCAPE Malcolm Brinded EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, UPSTREAM INTERNATIONAL 1 KUWAIT: UNLOCKING JURASSIC GAS FIELDS 2 THE MIDDLE EAST GAS PUZZLE Middle East has 40%

More information

Energy Value Chains. What is a Value Chain?

Energy Value Chains. What is a Value Chain? Energy s Overview of Fundamentals Center for Energy Economics, UT-Austin. No reproduction, distribution or attribution without permission. 1 What is a? The process of linking specific functions from input

More information

Commodity Trading COMMODITIES

Commodity Trading COMMODITIES Commodity Trading COMMODITIES About us Enix Commodities s.r.o is a Commodity Trading investment firm founded in 2008 with the aim to manage discretionary investments for select investors in the energy

More information

Russia s gas sector and gas export developments. Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega June 2015

Russia s gas sector and gas export developments. Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega June 2015 Russia s gas sector and gas export developments Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega June 215 IEA: 29 Members, worldwide engagement IEA member countries Accession country Key Partner countries Countries co-operating

More information

How LNG Promises to Change Natural Gas Markets and how the markets are already changing LNG!

How LNG Promises to Change Natural Gas Markets and how the markets are already changing LNG! How LNG Promises to Change Natural Gas Markets and how the markets are already changing LNG! LNG Opportunities Seminar, DnB markets and the Canadian Embassy Oslo 4 th December 2014 Karen Sund Full-picture

More information

World Energy Outlook 2009. Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009

World Energy Outlook 2009. Presentation to the Press London, 10 November 2009 World Energy Outlook 29 Presentation to the Press London, 1 November 29 The context The worst economic slump since the 2 nd World War & signs of recovery but how fast? An oil price collapse & then a rebound

More information

NATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY Long Term Outlook to 2030

NATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY Long Term Outlook to 2030 1. Background On different occasions, Eurogas is asked to present its views on the future of the European gas industry. The forecasts are mainly needed for conferences and bilateral discussions with European

More information

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LNG MARKETS

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LNG MARKETS JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RICE UNIVERSITY WORKING PAPER RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN LNG MARKETS BY PETER R. HARTLEY, PH.D. BAKER INSTITUTE RICE FACULTY SCHOLAR AND GEORGE AND CYNTHIA MITCHELL

More information

Creating more Value out of Storage

Creating more Value out of Storage Creating more Value out of Storage By Gary Howorth, Founder Energy-Redefined Introduction Gas Storage is a complicated business which carries with it large risks and potentially low rewards. Assets can

More information

The impact of Ukraine-Russia crisis on the European gas market. www.sundenergy.com

The impact of Ukraine-Russia crisis on the European gas market. www.sundenergy.com The impact of Ukraine-Russia crisis on the European gas market Sergiu Maznic Vienna, 11 March 2015 Full-picture perspective Sund Energy helps navigate into the energy future Energy Economics Environment

More information

Storage Development and Security of Gas Supply: U.S. Perspective. GIE Annual Conference, Groningen, May 7, 2009

Storage Development and Security of Gas Supply: U.S. Perspective. GIE Annual Conference, Groningen, May 7, 2009 Storage Development and Security of Gas Supply: U.S. Perspective GIE Annual Conference, Groningen, May 7, 2009 Role of Storage & Value Perception Strategic and Operational Role ROLE Pipeline Balancing

More information

Natural gas prices fall across the world

Natural gas prices fall across the world Natural gas prices fall across the world - November 215 Summary The fall of oil prices has left its footprint on gas prices, particularly in Asia, and to a lesser extent in Europe. Gas prices are now converging

More information

China s growing energy demand: some international implications

China s growing energy demand: some international implications China s growing energy demand: some international implications Dr David Robinson Senior Research Fellow OIES 17 October 2013 NOG Stockholm 1 Outline Introduction China s energy demand v. policy objectives

More information

Shale gas: Opportunities and challenges for European energy markets

Shale gas: Opportunities and challenges for European energy markets Shale gas: Opportunities and challenges for European energy markets Jeroen de Joode Arjan Plomp Özge Özdemir Brussels February 25, 2013 www.ecn.nl Outline Introduction What could be the impact of potential

More information

European gas vs coal plant switching

European gas vs coal plant switching gas [$/mmbtu] gas [p/th] CCGT @52% CCGT @49% CCGT @47% Sum15 Win15 Sum16 Win16 Sum17 80 European gas vs coal plant switching 8 6 52% CCGTs displacing 36% coal in Summers 70 60 50 40 30 20 A Timera Energy

More information

Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario

Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook CEDIGAZ February 215 Global growth rates Macroeconomic indicators CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario 4 3 %/year 199-213 213-235 6 Main consuming markets - %/year (213-235)

More information

GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY AND ENERGY SECURITY A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY AND ENERGY SECURITY A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY AND ENERGY SECURITY A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE Jean-Paul Decaestecker Council of the European Union Energy Foresight Symposium 2007 BERGEN, 22-23 March 2007 EFS 2007 The views expressed

More information

Estimating Future Energy Prices: Geopolitics, Economics & Vulnerability

Estimating Future Energy Prices: Geopolitics, Economics & Vulnerability Estimating Future Energy Prices: Geopolitics, Economics & Vulnerability By David Bangert, Polaris Consulting & Neil Davies and John Walls, Defence Economics Tel: 023 9225 9930 info@polarisconsulting.co.uk

More information

Oil & Gas Industry Recent Developments

Oil & Gas Industry Recent Developments Oil & Gas Industry Recent Developments By Dr. Hilmar R. Zeissig Houston International Business Corp. For RIAS BERLIN COMMISSION U.S. Energy Program in Texas Houston, Texas, April 27, 2015 Typical Downstream

More information

Carlos Fernández Alvarez

Carlos Fernández Alvarez Carlos Fernández Alvarez Senior Coal Analyst Madrid, 30 January 2014 About the IEA Established in November 1974 in order to: Promote energy security Provide analysis to ensure reliable, affordable and

More information

Roundtable Let s talk business: How Russian and EU companies would like to work with each other as well compete

Roundtable Let s talk business: How Russian and EU companies would like to work with each other as well compete Roundtable Let s talk business: How Russian and EU companies would like to work with each other as well compete Russian Gas Society - Eurogas Conference Brussels, 30 Mai 2013 Dr. Wolfgang Peters, MBA Member

More information

Energy Megatrends 2020

Energy Megatrends 2020 Energy Megatrends 2020 Esa Vakkilainen 1 NOTE The data included in the following is mainly based on International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2007 IEA is considered the most reliable source

More information

26 th World Gas Conference

26 th World Gas Conference 26 th World Gas Conference 1 5 June 2015, Paris, France Oil Indexation as Remedy for Market Failure in Natural Gas Industry Sergei Komlev Gazprom Export Oil-Indexation: Best Remedy for Market Failure Critics

More information

ICIS Power Index Q1 2015 Global gas oversupply pushes down prices

ICIS Power Index Q1 2015 Global gas oversupply pushes down prices Highlights l UK wholesale electricity market prices hit their lowest levels since the IPI has been calculated, because of global gas oversupply. l UK markets are now much more influenced by global gas

More information

Iran s Natural Gas Potential Iran s place as a natural gas supplier to Europe

Iran s Natural Gas Potential Iran s place as a natural gas supplier to Europe , Research Associate European Centre for Energy and Resource Security(EUCERS) Department of War Studies, King s College London Iran s Natural Gas Potential Iran s place as a natural gas supplier to Europe

More information

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012

Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 2012 Yara International ASA Third Quarter results 212 19 October 212 1 Summary third quarter Strong results and cash flow Yara-produced NPK deliveries up 1% Strong production increase Cautious start to European

More information

Corporate presentation

Corporate presentation Corporate presentation Table of Contents 1. Liquefied Natural Gas What is Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)? Natural gas within the global energy context. The value chain of natural gas. Demand and transport

More information

The Dynamics of Global Pellet Markets

The Dynamics of Global Pellet Markets The Dynamics of Global Pellet Markets Growth prospects and price scenarios Silvio Mergner Pöyry Management Consulting 4. Central European Biomass Conference 15-18 January 214 AGENDA Status Quo of the Industry

More information

Report on Pricing by the Energy Charter. The Report can be downloaded free of charge from: www.encharter.org

Report on Pricing by the Energy Charter. The Report can be downloaded free of charge from: www.encharter.org Oil and Gas Pricing Mechanisms: Past, Current and Future Trends Dr. Andrey A.Konoplyanik, Consultant to the Board, Gazprombank, and Professor, Russian State Oil & Gas University Presentation at the session

More information

Specialized Financing in the Oil & Gas Industry

Specialized Financing in the Oil & Gas Industry Specialized Financing in the Oil & Gas Industry How to proceed? What are our needs when starting a project? What are our objectives when we approach financings? Why we can rely on banking financings? 1

More information

Energi och gas ivår omvarld. Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) April 2014 @ThinaSaltvedt

Energi och gas ivår omvarld. Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) April 2014 @ThinaSaltvedt Energi och gas ivår omvarld Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) April 2014 @ThinaSaltvedt US shale gas soon aiming for new markets higher oil and natural gas prices Shale formations

More information

The Gas Market - Overview

The Gas Market - Overview The Gas Market - Overview Dr. Burckhard Bergmann, CEO of Ruhrgas AG and Member of the E.ON Board of Management March 11, 2004 1. Gas Market 2. Ruhrgas Business Model 3. Strategy 2 New Market-Unit (MU)-Structure

More information

ESRI Research Note. The Irish Electricity Market: New Regulation to Preserve Competition Valeria di Cosmo and Muireann Á. Lynch

ESRI Research Note. The Irish Electricity Market: New Regulation to Preserve Competition Valeria di Cosmo and Muireann Á. Lynch ESRI Research Note The Irish Electricity Market: New Regulation to Preserve Competition Valeria di Cosmo and Muireann Á. Lynch Research Notes are short papers on focused research issues. They are subject

More information

Biomass Pellet Prices Drivers and Outlook What is the worst that can happen?

Biomass Pellet Prices Drivers and Outlook What is the worst that can happen? Biomass Pellet Prices Drivers and Outlook What is the worst that can happen? European Biomass Power Generation 1st October 2012 Cormac O Carroll Director, London Office Pöyry Management Consulting (UK)

More information

The dynamism of LNG markets as seen from the business front

The dynamism of LNG markets as seen from the business front The dynamism of LNG markets as seen from the business front For the IEEJ Patricia Roberts Director LNG Worldwide Ltd 9th January 2015 LNG Worldwide Ltd CONTEXT : Japan is and will remain the largest LNG

More information

Sample Research copying or distributing the information is strictly prohibited

Sample Research copying or distributing the information is strictly prohibited Sample Research copying or distributing the information is strictly prohibited September 2013 Russia s pivot east: the growth in energy trade with China Executive summary Russia is shifting its outlook

More information

UNECE Energy Week Geneva. in Energy Security

UNECE Energy Week Geneva. in Energy Security UNECE Energy Week Geneva Investing in Energy Security Committee on Sustainable Energy and related Meetings Wednesday 28 November 2007 Special Session: Investing in and Financing the Hydrocarbon Sector

More information

Note No. 137 March 1998. Countries in Asia, Europe, and North and South America are introducing reforms to boost

Note No. 137 March 1998. Countries in Asia, Europe, and North and South America are introducing reforms to boost Privatesector P U B L I C P O L I C Y F O R T H E Note No. 137 March 1998 Competition in the Natural Gas Industry The emergence of spot, financial, and pipeline capacity markets Andrej Juris Countries

More information

Oil and Gas Prices. Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014

Oil and Gas Prices. Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014 Oil and Gas Prices Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014 Oil Price Drowning in oil Economist, March 1999 $10 oil might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5. Crude touches

More information

Energy security in the EU through an Energy Union

Energy security in the EU through an Energy Union Energy security in the EU through an Energy Union Fabio Genoese Madrid, 19 January 2015 Thinking ahead for Europe Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) www.ceps.eu Key messages 1. Reduce the fragmentation

More information

Natural gas as a commodity and its financialisation Antonio Tricarico Re:Common atricarico@recommon.org

Natural gas as a commodity and its financialisation Antonio Tricarico Re:Common atricarico@recommon.org Natural gas as a commodity and its financialisation Antonio Tricarico Re:Common atricarico@recommon.org 1. Europe as a battleground for the definition of the global gas market to come Contrary to the case

More information

Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets

Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets Gas Pricing Principles for European Gas Markets A View of Gazprom Export Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring and Price Formation Gazprom Export EU-RUSSIA ENERGY DIALOGUE Gas Advisory Council. Fifth

More information

Laszlo Varro Head of Gas Coal and Power Markets International Energy Agency

Laszlo Varro Head of Gas Coal and Power Markets International Energy Agency Laszlo Varro Head of Gas Coal and Power Markets International Energy Agency Bcm Global gas demand increases amid growing uncertainties 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Incremental gas demand by region, 2014-2020

More information

State of the Oil Markets?

State of the Oil Markets? State of the Oil Markets? U.S. and Global Refining Prospects John R. Auers, P.E. Executive Vice President Washington DC February 17, 2016 U.S. Refining is YUGE! 2 What Determines Refining Winners? Refined

More information

Impact of Big Data Analysis on Strategic Business Planning for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and Methanol Pricing in Commodity Markets

Impact of Big Data Analysis on Strategic Business Planning for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and Methanol Pricing in Commodity Markets Impact of Big Data Analysis on Strategic Business Planning for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and Methanol Pricing in Commodity Markets By Merv Perry MBA MSc CISSP CISM Big data is fundamentally changing the

More information

2. Executive Summary. Emissions Trading Systems in Europe and Elsewhere

2. Executive Summary. Emissions Trading Systems in Europe and Elsewhere 2. Executive Summary With the introduction of CO 2 emission constraints on power generators in the European Union, climate policy is starting to have notable effects on energy markets. This paper sheds

More information

Primary Gas Buyers Move Upstream - Impact on the Gas Trade

Primary Gas Buyers Move Upstream - Impact on the Gas Trade Primary Gas Buyers Move Upstream - Impact on the Gas Trade Nicolas Brizard Consultant, Global Insight European Fuel Price Conference 8 th & 9 th December 2004 Le Meridien Hotel Piccadilly, London Gas Competitor

More information

Annex 2C International comparisons of gas and electricity prices

Annex 2C International comparisons of gas and electricity prices Annex 2C International comparisons of gas and electricity prices Wholesale gas prices in the UK have risen between 23 and 24. This has caused industrial and domestic gas prices to increase and the gap

More information

eni eni eni eni eni eni s activities exploration & production engineering and construction eni saipem eni saipem gas & power chemicals eni versalis

eni eni eni eni eni eni s activities exploration & production engineering and construction eni saipem eni saipem gas & power chemicals eni versalis our promise With 10 years of experience delivering gas to the UK market, the presence of eni continues to offer a fresh and innovative perspective to downstream sales. Drawing on the experience and resources

More information

LNG. a natural gas partner

LNG. a natural gas partner LNG a natural gas partner LNG - a dynamic and vibrant business Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is the fastest growing sector of the international gas business. For many years, a predictable industry involving

More information

Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today.

Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today. Good afternoon, and thanks to the Energy Dialogue for your kind invitation to speak today. Europe is at the forefront of a global transition to a cleaner energy economy. At the same time globally energy

More information

Trade and Industry Committee Inquiry into Fuel Prices November 2004. Submission by UK Offshore Operators Association

Trade and Industry Committee Inquiry into Fuel Prices November 2004. Submission by UK Offshore Operators Association Trade and Industry Committee Inquiry into Fuel Prices November 2004 Submission by UK Offshore Operators Association Introduction 1. UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) represents operating companies

More information

The Top 10 Oil & Gas Companies

The Top 10 Oil & Gas Companies BUSINESS INSIGHTS The Top 10 Oil & Gas Companies Growth strategies, consolidation and convergence in the leading players New Energy Management Report Distribution of global natural gas reserves North America

More information

Executive Summary. The core energy policy is as follows:

Executive Summary. The core energy policy is as follows: Executive Summary Energy management must become more sustainable and less dependent on increasingly scarce fossil fuels. Energy is a fundamental element of the economy, and the Netherlands must do more

More information

Global Oil & Gas Suite

Global Oil & Gas Suite IHS ENERGY Global Oil & Gas Suite Comprehensive analysis and insight on upstream opportunities, risk, infrastructure dynamics, and downstream markets Global Oil & Gas Suite Make optimal decisions about

More information

Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. RPGC 2013 Moscow, June 25 th

Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. RPGC 2013 Moscow, June 25 th Investment and export opportunities for Russian companies in oil and gas projects abroad: asset swaps as a method of developing direct foreign investment Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department

More information

World Energy Outlook 2013. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency

World Energy Outlook 2013. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Copenhagen, November 26th The world energy scene today

More information

PETROLEUM SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT

PETROLEUM SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT PETROLEUM SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT March 2009 2009 Business Studies & Analysis Center. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction, copying, re-mailing, storage or website posting is prohibited.

More information

www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 September 2013

www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 September 2013 www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 Summary: Wage gap between emerging and advanced economies will shrink significantly by 2030 By 2030, our projections in this report suggest that

More information

Unconventional oil and gas: outlook, risks, and potential

Unconventional oil and gas: outlook, risks, and potential 20140519_SBC_International Energy Forum - Paper_v05 Unconventional oil and gas: outlook, risks, and potential May 2014 Moscow Table of Contents KEY INSIGHTS... 2 1. UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES ARE SIZEABLE

More information

INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS PRICING - A CHALLENGE TO ECONOMIC MODELING

INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS PRICING - A CHALLENGE TO ECONOMIC MODELING INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GAS PRICING - A CHALLENGE TO ECONOMIC MODELING A Presentation to the Energy Information Administration Washington August 23, 2012 JAMES T. JENSEN Phone (781) 894 2362 Jensen Associates

More information

East African Gas Creating a Winning Formula

East African Gas Creating a Winning Formula East African Gas Creating a Winning Formula September 2012 Executive Summary The recent discovery of major new gas resources in East Africa particularly offshore Mozambique and Tanzania coupled with the

More information

World Energy Outlook. Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Paris, 27 February 2014

World Energy Outlook. Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Paris, 27 February 2014 World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Paris, 27 February 2014 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles:

More information

The E.ON View on a N-DK Connection

The E.ON View on a N-DK Connection Energinet.dk Seminar on Norwegian-Danish Gas Connection on 13. September 2010 in Copenhagen Dr. Christoph Merkel, Vice President Sales Northern Europe E.ON Ruhrgas AG Pan-European Gas Market Unit ( PEG)/

More information

Jordan Cove LNG. The Global LNG Market and. Betsy Spomer Executive Vice-President, Veresen President & CEO, Jordan Cove LNG LLC

Jordan Cove LNG. The Global LNG Market and. Betsy Spomer Executive Vice-President, Veresen President & CEO, Jordan Cove LNG LLC The Global LNG Market and Jordan Cove LNG TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference July 8, 2015 Betsy Spomer Executive Vice-President, Veresen President & CEO, Jordan Cove LNG LLC Forward-looking information

More information

Presentation to the State of Alaska Legislature. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) NPV Analysis and Results

Presentation to the State of Alaska Legislature. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) NPV Analysis and Results Presentation to the State of Alaska Legislature Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) NPV Analysis and Results June 9, 2008 Key Conclusions LNG Projects Have Higher Capital Costs and Therefore Greater Risk than a Pipeline

More information

If there was only 1 or 2 new gas producers, they may also be bought out by the major gas companies. This would also not lead to lower gas prices.

If there was only 1 or 2 new gas producers, they may also be bought out by the major gas companies. This would also not lead to lower gas prices. This creates a large bargaining range for local gas prices. Where the final price end up is a function of who has the best bargaining position and the greater power in the price negotiation (Economics

More information