The Evolution of the Gas Industry: The Impact on Infrastructure Investments. Daniele De Giovanni SVP Supply Portfolio Development eni Gas & Power

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1 The Evolution of the Gas Industry: The Impact on Infrastructure Investments Daniele De Giovanni SVP Supply Portfolio Development eni Gas & Power 1

2 Index The role of infrastructure investments in the European gas market development; The European gas market outlook; Gas infrastructure investments in Europe: is a new era about to start? The investment framework shapers: analogies and differences with the early stages of the European gas market development; The business model evolution; Conclusions: do we have a sustainable investment climate in Europe? 2

3 Infrastructure investments has played a central role in the European gas market development The development of the European gas market has been based on important infrastructure investments; Infrastructures have linked gas producing countries (Russia Norway North Africa) to consumer markets; From the 70 s to the 90 s in todays EU27: Pipeline for more than 400 bcm of capacity for import from outside EU 27 were developed; Around 150 bcm of regasification capacity was created; 80 bcm of storage were established; A market of 114 million single customers consuming around 500 bcm. 3

4 The development of import capacity in Europe Norway 41 Cumulated inport capacity 60 s-70 s 80 s Russia 90 s 2000 s N. Africa - In 40 years Europe has developed more than 400 bcm of import capacity from North Africa, North Sea and Russia; Today 46% of European pipeline import capacity is from Russia, 37% from Norway and 17% from North Africa 4

5 The European gas infrastrucure development eni s contribution Eni has contributed to the development of the European gas infrastructure through more than km of import pipelines along the three current import corridors to Europe 5

6 The European gas market outlook Bcm Demand Import 626 High Low Demand will be growing 0.9% - 1.2% (CAGR) in between ; Gas to power will be the main demand growth driver; UE 27 internal gas production will be falling by almost 150 bcm; EU27 Domestic Production Source: Eurogas 2010 Starting from 2016 there will be more need for import up to 155 Bcm in

7 The European gas market outlook: supply must be secured Gas Source Lack of Caspian & Middle east gas import; Over-reliance on Russian gas supplies: Perceived but tolerated in Western Europe; Very sensitive in South- Eastern Europe (SEE). Gas Infrastructure Lack of interconnections and insufficient gas storage in South Eastern Europe; Frailty of Ukraine s gas corridor: Technical obsolescence; Unstable relationship with Russia. Match long term market needs through reliable imported volumes; Balance the supply portfolio structure through the diversification of supply countries; Mitigate the transit risk through the diversification of import routes. 7

8 Does Europe need new infrastructure to cope with the need of more gas import? Europe needs both new imported volumes and to secure its supply; Investement in gas infrastrucure can, as in the early stage, give a foundamental contribution to today s European gas market needs; Regas terminals can contribuite to source diversification and to increase flexibility in supply, allowing Europe to benefit from new supply opportunities; New selected import pipelines can contribuite to increase security of supply through diversification of sources and routes; Interconnectors and reverse flow can contribuite to create a truly single European market. Europe shows a need for new gas infrastructures as stated by the latest EU Commission s Strategic Energy Review 8

9 Each single European region has its own caracteristics and needs North West South South East South Supply mostly from UE internal production (UK NL) import from North Sea and Russia; Need for harmonising phisical gas properties across networks in the region to increase liquidity at the hubs. Supply mostly dependent upon Russia and North Africa; Increase spot market liquidity; Supply diversification and better interconnections expecially in the SEE. Important role of LNG; France and Iberian peninsulae still not perfectly integrated into the EU market; Develop interconnections and improve supply balance. 9

10 What it is shaping today s framework investment? Market Conditions Demand Gas market Supply globalisation balance Price Demand stability supply balance. LNG role Public Policies Demand Market Regulation Supply balance Price TEN-Estability. Security of supply Technology Development The investment Climate Geopolitics Demand MaterialsSupply balance Price Laying stability vessels. Repairing systems Demand National interests Supply balance Price International stabilityrelations. International security 10

11 Market conditions: Supply demand balance: from a regional to a global issue Americas USA & Canada Shale gas development; From net importers to potential LNG exporters. South America Seasonal purchases influencing spot market in short term; New Brazilian discoveries could lead in the long run to gas independence. Europe New imported volumes are needed; LNG imports are increasing liquidity in the spot markets; Availability of regasification capacity; New pipe gas projects are under development; Significant supply gap driven by Chinese and Indian demand growth; Dependence on LNG; Huge potential of Australia LNG projects; Potential Shale Gas development; Security of supply leads to premium LNG prices Americas to become a gas island with no need for LNG import LNG is competing with gas pipe to increase its market share Strong competition among LNG Suppliers 11

12 The investment framework shapers: public policies Market Regulation TEN - E Security of Supply Liberalisation through the introduction of: Third party access; Unbundling; Market tests, Open Season and UIOLI as tools. Project prioritisation and selection: Project of European Interest ; Project coordination; Project financing through Structural Funds and other EU financial instruments. Promoting regional solidarity and regional emergency plans; Pushing towards more reverse flow and inteconncetions. Need for consistency of different policies objectives; Exemption from TPA and benefits from TEN-E status have not both always proven sufficient to ensure project development 12

13 The investment framework shapers: technical development From simple pipe connections technology has allowed gas supplies to reach new downstream markets: LNG Deepwater pipelines Floating LNG Future technical development will be in the areas of: New materials for high pressure pipelines Maritime deployment of CNG technology 13

14 Technical development deepwater pipeline Galsi Blue Stream Green Stream Medgaz Amoco Aquaba II Omen BP Mardi Gas Nord Stream TMP II Europipe II Eni is leading the deepwater pipelines development 14

15 The investment framework shapers: the new geopolitical scene Soviet Union Dissolution FSU countries start to play a role as: New suppliers (Caspian & Central Asia); Transit Countries (Belorus & Ukraina); Yugoslavia Breakup New countries appear on the scene as: Potential customers; Transit countries; The disintegration of a unified energy system (Soviet Union + CMEA Countries + Balkans Countries) has created a patchwork; The Energy Community has been created to facilitate the integration process of the SEE and the integration of the region into the internal EU energy market. 15

16 The changes in the investment framework The Early Stages Today & Future Market Conditons Low market risk in a growing demand market; Monopolistic structure; Lower demand growth rate; Increasing competition; Regulation Not material; Licensinsing & Permitting; Substantial and increasing; Third Party Access; Geopolitcs Cold war but mananageble inter country relations; No transit issue. Increasing geopolitical sensitisation ; Transit as a key issue. Gas transport is more complex since the number of player influencing decisions has increased; The investment framework is more challenging and riskier than it used to be in the past 16

17 Risk mitigation factors The Early Stages Today & Future Gas Contracts Long term based on take or pay clauses; Destination clauses to protect buyer; Partial spot indexation leads to new risk allocation Destination clauses ruled out; Organisation Vertical integration along the gas chain; Unbundling; In a riskier investment environment traditional risk mitigation factors are losing their effectiveness 17

18 The investment framework shapers: The Business Model evolution The early stages Gas Seller Shipper Carrier Gas Buyer Bilateral Model Regulation Risk Sharing Today Gas Seller Gas Seller Shipper Shipper Carrier Carrier Gas Buyer Gas Buyer Multy Party Model Multy Party Expt. Model Future Gas Seller Shipper Carrier Gas Buyer Open Model 18

19 In a changing environment there will be some fondamentals that will not change Gas will continue to be the fuel of choice; Few big gas supplier will contend the imports market (gas production will keep its oligopolistic structure); Huge investments will be required to promote new upstream and infrastructure projects; Long Term contracts will be needed to finance new projects. 19

20 In spite of a more complex investment framework there is a great number of projects Nord Stream Grain LNG (exp.) Dunkirk Gate LNG Polskie LNG New import pipeline capacity 134 bcm/y Nabucco El Musel New regas capacity 31 bcm/y South Stream Livorno TAP White Stream TAP ITGI GALSI Overall new import capacity: 165 bcm/y 20

21 Adaptation to the new investment framework is a must Adapting to the complexity typical of the investment framework is a difficult task for all the parties involved, in primis for project sponsors; The risks of non adapting are serious ones: Overall loss of credibility of the gas industry; Loss of appeal for Europe as a gas customer vis a vis other regions showing higher demand growth rates; Alienation of investors attracted by competing investment projects; 21

22 Does Europe have a sustainable investment climate? The role of EU Institutions To cope with the need of gas infrastructure development, a more favourable investment climate should be created; The EU Institutions should play a key role in creating such environment: Delivering a stable and predictable regulatory framewok; Removing legal and financial obstacles; The EU might be supporting infrastructure projects as a coordinator, mediator or through investment gurantees; Investment projects should however be: Market driven; Economically viable; Self-financed; Avoiding market distortions. 22

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