Global Trends in Agri-food

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1 Global Trends in Agri-food PMA Fresh Connections Southern Africa August 12, 2015 Copyright President & Fellows of Harvard College

2 60+ Years of Agribusiness at Harvard Business School A Concept of Agribusiness, Davis and Goldberg (1957) Agribusiness Seminar (Executive Education) since 1960 Hundreds of cases, thousands of program alumni

3 AGRA (Kenya) Alltech (USA) Arcadia Biosciences (USA) Asian Agri (Indonesia) Associated British Foods (UK) Barilla (Italy) Brasil Foods (Brazil) Bunge (USA) CHS (USA) CME Group (USA) Codevasf (Brazil) COFCO (China) Cosan (Brazil) Cresud (Argentina) DaChan (China) Diageo (Africa) Diamond Foods (USA) Disney (USA) Domino s (USA) Ebro Puleva (Spain) Exima (Russia) Harvard Agribusiness Cases Fonterra (New Zealand) FreshTec (USA) Friona (USA) GlobalGAP (Germany) Greencore (UK) Heineken (Netherlands) HN Naturals (India) Hungerit (Hungary) Identigen (Ireland) Jain Irrigation (India) JBS (Brazil) Kepak (Ireland) K&N s Poultry (Pakistan) Los Grobo (Argentina) Louis Dreyfus (Switzerland) Lufa Farms (Canada) Marine Harvest (Norway) Marks & Spencer (UK) Mission Produce (USA) Monsanto (USA) Munoz Group (Spain) Mutti (Italy) Nestlé (Switzerland) Ocean Mist (USA) Olam (Singapore) OSI (China) PureCircle (Malaysia) Queensland Sugar (Australia) Rabobank (Netherlands) Red Lobster (USA) Red Tomato (USA) Ripe N Ready (USA) Simplot (USA) Syngenta (Switzerland) Taylor Farms (USA) Tesco (UK) Tissue Culture Beef (NL) Unilever Tea (UK) Vegpro (Africa) ViniBrasil (Brazil) Woolf Farming (USA) Xinjiang Tunhe (China) Yum! China Zespri (New Zealand)

4 Major Trends Globalization Consolidation Risk management Technology Food and health Scarcity of land, water and talent Food security Consumer engagement/activism Sustainability Tightening supply chains

5 2006+: A New Era for Agriculture & Food Source: FAO, June 4, 2015

6 Fundamental shift in Supply-Demand balance DEMAND Population, Income Increasing China and others eating more meat, dairy, produce Biofuel use continues Demand +70% by 2050 SUPPLY Land and Water constraints Government policies Environment Trade Climate change 6

7 Strongest growth in emerging markets

8 People (and appetites) moving to MEGACITIES

9 Supply history: Producing more with less

10 Future limited by water?

11 China s Challenge: Feeding 1.3 billion Improving diets Pork consumption doubled since Chicken, beef, dairy, fresh produce. Relentless urbanization 160 cities > 1m (35 in Europe) More demanding consumers - Digitally connected (1.2B mobile phones, 618M internet users) - Global outlook (200m Chinese tourists a year by 2020)

12 Securing China s future Food policy - Critical! Produce? Import? 60% of global soybean exports go to China Investing globally to stimulate production, improve logistics FDI $12B in Brazil in 2011 Also Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Africa.

13 Consumers: Engaged and Empowered Food is Trending Internet = (Im)Perfect Information Trust friends more than ads Product and Purpose Rejection of BIG ag/food companies VALUE PREMIUM BIFURCATION

14 Local Markets

15 15

16 Traceability - There s an App for That!

17

18 Sustainability: From Fashion to Staple Our customers expect it It makes good business sense Platform of the future Unilever: Sustainably source 100% of agricultural inputs by 2020

19 Definition of Sustainability? Measures are evolving Carbon, energy, waste Water, biodiversity Animal welfare, labor practices

20 From Sustainable Agriculture to Sustainable Diet Source: Barilla Center for Food and Nutrition 20

21 Supply Chains: From Farm to Fork Integrating to Manage volatility Capture margins Secure current and future supply Ensure food safety Protect brand reputation Deliver differentiated products 21

22 Domino s buying chicken feed HARD RED SPRING WHEAT CORN

23 Tesco s global sourcing model

24 24

25 Our goal: by 2016 all food & drink exports from farms and food businesses certified as on the road to sustainability ingreen/pages/default.aspx Saoirse Ronan for Origin Green

26 The Take-Aways Growing mismatch where food produced and where consumed Local, national, AND global supply chains More specialties, fewer commodities Substantial change in investment flows Talent the biggest constraint

27 Agribusiness Seminar Africa Sept 27-30, 2015 Cape Town

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