Flexible interplay between power and bioenergy

Transcription

1 Flexible interplay between power and bioenergy Erik Trømborg, NMBU CENBIO Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet 1

2 FlexElTerm *) : Flexible interaction between the power and heat sector Improved interaction may give benefits Partners Main objective: Analyse how increased interaction may improve: The value of national energy resources Security of energy supply Project period: Web: Reserach partners: NMBU + Nordic Universitites *) Fleksibelt samspill mellom kraft og termiske energi i framtidens smarte energisystem 2

3 Background and motivation (1) 1) System challenges of high VRE shares: - High need for ramping and balancing - Low capacity credit (low capacity at peak load) - Risk of over-supply NORWAY: 1. Regulated hydro gives significant capacity flexibility, but still seasonal challenges in dry and cold years (?) 2. Increased variability in neighbouring countries imply increased short run variability in power prices 3. Capacity challenges on regional levels grid vs flexibility

4 Background and motivation (2) 1) System challenges of high VRE shares 2) The merit order effect of VRE Edenhofer et al. (2013)

5 Background and motivation (3) 1) System challenges of high VRE shares 2) The merit order effect of high VRE shares 3) The need for decarbonizing the heating sector Distribution of EU energy consumption (Source: EU Heating and Cooling strategy) Fossil fuel share in heating and cooling: 84% (Source: EU Heating and Cooling strategy)

6 Background and motivation (4) 1) System challenges of high VRE shares 2) The merit order effect of high VRE shares 3) The need for decarbonizing the heating sector Power to heat (P2H) for heating and cooling can, potentially, 1) reduce (some of the) system challenges, 2) increase the VRE market values, and 3) reduce emissions from the heating sector

7 Large volumes: District heating in Nordic countries 120 TWh corresponds to 75 mill m 3 if from solid wood only Heat demand (TWh) Sweden Norway Finland Limited use of electricity due to eltaxes and grid rents. 22% of delivered heat from el-boilers and heat pumps in Norway DH Denmark 7

8 Project activities 1) Studies of technological developments Review of techological changes relevant for district heating (VTT report) Plant level analyses Use of electricity Thermal storage 2) Integrated modelling of the Nordic power and district heating markets 3) Policy implications Heat demand and impacts of heating systems Grid tariffs Framework conditions for district heating

9 The Balmorel model Partial equilibrium model for the Northern European power and district heating market Detailed electricity and heat market data on a regionalized level Investments determined endogenously or exogenously in a long term model The market is thereafter simulated at an hourly time resolution Hourly market conditions well suited for modeling of variable renewable energy sources 9

10 Modelling of the Nordic District Heating Market 1 Area 19 GWh Total 42 district heating areas 1 Area.1 TWh 2 Areas 2.4 TWh District heating consumption in 2030: 128 TWh 1 Area.1 TWh 1 Area 6 GWh 1 Area.3 TWh 1 Area 7 GWh 1 Area.2 TWh 1 Area.3 TWh 2 Areas.7 TWh 1 Area.1 TWh 1 Area 61 GWh 4 Areas 20.4 TWh 2 Areas 2.9 TWh 2 Areas 4.5 TWh 5 Areas 39.5 TWh 4 Areas 9.6 TWh 7 Areas 37.1 TWh Varmeetterspørsel (TWh) Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Areas 14.9 TWh 10

11 Quantifying the P2H impacts main assumptions Main assumptions for 2030, fixed in all simulations More RE, especially VRE Some, but limited, growth in demand for power and heat More interconnectors to the Continent and UK Less nuclear power in Sweden Assumptions that are varied in different simulations Installed capacity of el-boilers and heat pumps Inflow (wet vs normal year) Price of CO2-emissions and biomass Grid tariffs electricity use in DH Tittel på Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet pres 11 enta sjon

12 Results: When are el-boiler used? Weekly energy (GWh) Week Wind power Heat demand Electric boiler

13 Power prices, normal inflow /MWh , 10 og 20 % extra installed el-boiler capacity (wrtpeak load 2030) 0 % 10 % 20 % 50 % Week Average price % 10 % 20 % Standard deviation Power to heat (TWh) 2,5 8,6 10,4 11,3

14 Power prices, wet year /MWh Week 0 % 10 % 20 % 50 % Average price El-priser 2030 i et antatt våtår 0 % 10 % 20 % Standard deviation Power to heat (TWh) 2,5 14,9 17,8 19,1

15 Increase in wind power s market value (%) under «normal» assumptions % increase in the price recived by wind power producers GWh/ year Increasingly competitive conditions for el-boilers Tittel på Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet pres 15 enta sjon

16 Increase in wind power s market value (%) in wet year % increase in the price recived by wind power producers Wet year versus normal year GWh/ year Tittel på Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet pres 16 enta sjon

17 CO2-price: Impact on P2H: P2H (GWh) /t Nomal year Wet year /t /t - 50 /t Average Nordic electricity price ( /MWh)

18 Plant level analysis: Heat only plant with wood chips as base load with and without el-boiler: MWh Normal without el-boiler Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MWh Normal with elboiler Bio LPG Bio El-boiler LPG MWh Wet with elboilerl MWh Dry with el-boiler Bio El-boiler LPG Bio El-boiler LPG

19 Electricity use in a heat only plant: Investment in el-boiler is profitable if grid rents support flexible use In Norway electricity will replace fossile fuels + partly biomass in wet years and windy periods Use of thermal storage will also reduce the use of fossile peak load and competes with electric boiler, especially in biobased plants LPG Electric boiler Woodchips 5 0 T281 T314 T347 T380 T413 T446 T479 T512 T545 T578 T611 T644 T677 T710 T015 T048 T081 T114 T147 T180 T213 T246 T279 T312 T345 T378 T411 T444 T477 T510 T543 T576 T609 T642 T675 T708 November Desember 19

20 Key findings A power to heat (P2H) strategy can add substantial flexibility to the power system Reduced VRE integration challenges and costs Increased market values of VRE -> less need for financial support to reach certain RE targets P2H solutions provide more flexibility when Grid tariffs are low Biomass prices are high Carbon prices are low Flexible heating solutions have a promising benefit-to-cost ratio compared to other flexibility alternatives Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet

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22 Prosjekt: BioNEXT The role of bioenergy in the future energy system - ENERGIX What are the comparative advantages of different bioenergy solutions in the Nordic countries, and what are the barriers to developing them? What types of feedstock, technologies and end-product mixes are likely to be the most profitable? What are the expected long-term developments and underlying uncertainties of market demand and prices? What are the positive external effects of different bioenergy solutions GHG emissions from fossil fuels, flexibility and energy security, support for the development of a vital forest sector? What are the policy instruments that can drive the industrial innovation and learning towards successful commercial breakthrough? 22

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