Published 3Q Dave Hurst Senior Analyst. Clint Wheelock President

Transcription

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Medium and Heavy Trucks: Market Analysis and Forecasts NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com. Published 3Q 2011 Dave Hurst Senior Analyst Clint Wheelock President

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Market Issues The truck market has experienced seismic changes in the last few years. The global economic recession has taken a huge toll on medium duty (MD) and heavy duty (HD) truck sales in many regions. At the same time, oil prices have climbed precipitously, which has sent diesel fuel costs to near record highs in many countries. Truck manufacturers have responded by expanding their offerings of alternative drivetrains to help reduce emissions and fuel usage by trucks. Trucks are based on the gross vehicle weight (GVW) of their chassis. In North America, these weights are separated into Class 1 through Class 8, from light duty (LD) to HD. MD trucks fall into Class 3 to Class 6 (10,001 to 26,000 lbs GVW), which roughly match the European weight Class N1 and Class N2. HD trucks are Class 7 and Class 8 (26,000 lbs or more) and European Class N3. Because trucks are used to perform a variety of different tasks, trucks have substantial design variety. In order to be able to deliver on these different designs, truck manufacturers generally build either cab and chassis or stripped chassis. When hybrid systems are purchased from third parties, such as Eaton or Enova, it is most often installed prior to the vehicle going to the body manufacturer. The body manufacturer builds the rest of the truck, whether that is a box, step van, dump bucket, or bucket truck. In some cases, the hybrid or plug-in system is integrated in between the manufacturer and body builder at a third location. The global truck market is about 3.7 million vehicles in 2011 and is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% annually to reach 4.7 million by In the United States, trucks represent approximately 13% of the total fleet market (in number of vehicles). 1

3 Chart 1.1 Vehicle Segment Percentage of Fleet Sales, United States: 2011 Midsize/Large SUV 8.9% Pickup Trucks 10.5% Small SUV 5.7% Luxury Car 2.7% Minivans/Vans 13.7% MD Trucks (Class 3-6) 6.7% HD Trucks (Class 7-8) 6.6% Midsize/Large Car 30.1% Small Car 15.1% (Source: Pike Research) Essentially, four types of hybrid electric drivetrains are implemented on board MD/HD trucks: Hybrid electric: Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) generate all their power on board, and deliver that power to the wheels, either in parallel with an internal combustion engine (ICE) or in serial with no connection between the ICE and the wheels. Mild electric power take-off (EPTO) hybrids: These systems do not provide any power to the wheels from electricity; rather, they power all power take-off (PTO) equipment via battery storage. Therefore, these vehicles do not require the ICE to idle for extended periods during equipment usage. Plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV): These systems get some of their power, either parallel or serial, from an off-vehicle source. Battery electric vehicle (BEV): These systems get all of their power from off-vehicle sources, and they store the power on the vehicle. Therefore, these vehicles require large batteries and recharging time, but they have zero emissions. 2

4 Chart 1.2 MD/HD HEV Truck Sales as Percentage of ICE Trucks, World Markets: 2011, 2017 North America Latin America 2011E 2017 Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Africa/Middle East 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% (Percentage of ICE Truck Sales) (Source: Pike Research) Most HEV, PHEV, and BEV trucks will utilize different chemistries of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. Nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries are expected to peak in 2016, as vehicle manufacturers move their remaining systems towards Li-ion. Essentially, all BEV trucks are anticipated to be Li-ion, as very little development work is underway in the MD or HD truck markets with other battery technologies. The Li-ion market is expected to reach 3.6 million kwh globally in the MD/HD truck market by The type of system chosen will depend heavily on the drive cycle of the vehicle and how it will be used. As a result, the performance of specific economic sectors will play a big role in the growth of electric drivetrains for trucks. For example, as the retail industry rebounds, pick-up and delivery vehicle sales will rebound with it. This will have a positive impact on the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market, too. Other industries that are key to the electric drivetrain include the refuse market, since hybrids are well-suited to the stop and go drive cycle, with the utility truck market taking advantage of EPTOs to reduce emissions during stationary work, along with ports and railyards, which are a massive intersection for a variety of different sources of mobile emissions. The challenge facing the hybrid truck market remains the cost of the system. HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs all continue to have higher upfront costs that are significant enough to result in higher total cost of ownership for the vehicles. While the typical operating cost of a diesel is substantially higher than that of other drivetrains ($0.72/mile for diesel versus $0.60/mile for hybrid and $0.22/mile for BEV trucks), the higher purchase cost and low cost of diesel in some markets means that the trucks are not able to recover their costs in their lifetime. As a result, government incentives and emissions or fuel economy regulations will continue to play a very important role in promoting hybrids and plug-in trucks. Overall, Pike Research forecasts that the market for hybrids and plug-ins will grow at an annual rate of 47.2% between 2011 and 2017 to reach 100,746 trucks. The Asia Pacific 3

5 market, spurred on by governmental economic development activities, will be the largest market with 41,657 HEV/PHEV/BEV trucks sold in 2017, followed by North America with 25,952 vehicles. Chart 1.3 HEV/PHEV/BEV MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: , ,000 North America Latin America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Africa/Middle East 80,000 (Vehicles) 60,000 40,000 20, E (Source: Pike Research) 4

6 Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary Market Issues... 1 Section Market Issues Definitions Overview by Truck Types Medium Duty Delivery Trucks Non-Delivery Work Applications Heavy Duty Trucks Work Trucks Over-the-Road Tractors Battery Size for Hybrid Trucks Industry Impact on the Hybrid Truck Market Construction Industry Pick-up and Delivery Refuse Vehicles Port/Railyard Operations Hybrid Truck Ownership Costs Recovery of Cost Premiums Maintenance Costs Vehicle Packaging Concerns Alternative Fuel Vehicles Impact on the Market Hydraulic Hybrids Biodiesel Natural Gas Fuel Cell Section Technology Issues Hybrid Truck Drivetrains Parallel Hybrid Electric Design Series Hybrids Mild EPTO Hybrids Plug-in Hybrid Trucks Battery Electric Trucks Recharging Times Recharging Infrastructure Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies Electric Motors Battery Technology Lead-Acid Batteries Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries Lithium ion Batteries Ultracapacitors Regenerative Braking Alternative Power Units in Heavy Duty Class 7 and Class

7 3.9 Emissions Control Equipment Selective Catalytic Reduction Exhaust Gas Recirculation Section Demand Drivers Fuel Prices Idle Reduction Greening of Fleets Government Emissions Regulations United States EPA Medium/Heavy Duty Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations Canada South America Europe Asia Pacific Japan China Other Markets Government Incentives United States California Hybrid Voucher Incentive Program Canada Europe Asia Pacific China s 12 th Five Year Plan Section Key Industry Players Original Equipment Manufacturers Altec Industries Azure Dynamics Balqon Corporation Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd Crane Carrier Company Daimler Trucks/Freightliner Dueco/Odyne Electric Vehicles International Ford Motor Co Hino/Toyota Motor Corp Hyundai Iveco MAN SE Mitsubishi Fuso Truck Navistar/International Truck and Engine Corp Nissan and Renault Proterra Inc PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF Smith Electric Vehicles Terex Utilities Volvo Trucks Zero Truck Key Suppliers A123 Systems Allison Transmission

8 5.2.3 ALTe ArvinMeritor BAE Systems Bosch Rexroth AG Dow Kokam Inc Eaton Corp Enova Systems Inc Parker Hannifin Corporation Johnson Controls-Saft LG Chemical/Compact Power Primearth EV Energy (Panasonic EV Energy) Remy, Inc Siemens UQM Technologies US Hybrid Corporation Valence Technology Inc Wrightspeed Inc ZF Friedrichshafen AG Section Market Forecasts ICE Truck Forecast: Global Hybrid Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: North America Europe Asia Pacific Global Hybrid Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: Global Plug-in Hybrid Truck Sales Forecast: Global Plug-in Hybrid Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: Global Plug-in Hybrid Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: Global Battery Electric Truck Sales Forecast: Global Battery Electric Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: Global Battery Electric Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: United States Truck Sales Forecast by Drive Type: MD/HD Truck Battery Forecast, World Markets: Summary and Conclusions Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

9 Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Vehicle Segment Percentage of Fleet Sales, United States: Chart 1.2 MD/HD HEV Truck Sales as Percentage of ICE Trucks, World Markets: 2011, Chart 1.3 HEV/PHEV/BEV MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 2.1 Trucks by Use, United States: Chart 4.1 MD/HD Truck Sales and Diesel Prices, United States: Chart 6.1 ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.2 Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.3 Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, North America: Chart 6.4 Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, Europe: Chart 6.5 Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, Asia Pacific: Chart 6.6 Fleet HEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.7 Fleet Sales of PHEVs, World Markets: Chart 6.8 Fleet PHEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.9 Fleet PHEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.10 Sales of Battery Electric MD/HD Trucks World Markets: Chart 6.11 Fleet BEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.12 Fleet BEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.13 MD/HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: Chart 6.14 MD/HD Truck HEV NiMH Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.15 MD/HD Truck HEV/PEV Li-ion Sales, World Markets: Figure 2.1 United States Truck Classes... 5 Figure 2.2 Cutaway-Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles... 7 Figure 2.3 HTUF Class 4 Parcel Drive Cycle... 8 Figure 2.4 Utility Service Truck Drive Cycle... 9 Figure 2.5 Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles... 9 Figure 2.6 U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector Figure 2.7 Construction Industry Output: Figure 2.8 Nonresidential Construction Spending, United States: Figure 2.9 Eaton Corp. Hydraulic Series Hybrid System Figure 3.1 Hybrid Truck Electric System Figure 3.2 Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Figure 3.3 Diesel Engine Emission Control System Figure 4.1 Typical Truck Assembly Process Flow

10 Table 2.1 European Vehicle Classes... 6 Table 2.2 Battery Size Used by Selected Hybrid Trucks Table 2.3 Typical Truck Costs Table 2.4 Total Truck Cost of Ownership Table 2.5 FedEx Express Vehicle Operating Costs by System: Table 3.1 Battery Type Comparison Table 4.1 United States Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations Table 4.2 Combination Tractor Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY Table 4.3 Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY Table 4.4 California Hybrid Voucher Incentive Project:

11 Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the hybrid truck market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, trade associations, battery manufacturers, and fleet managers, with a study of the market for hybrid and plug-in electric truck technologies within the medium- and heavy-duty truck market among vehicle fleet purchasers. This report s major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of hybrid MD and HD trucks within the fleet market. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The report s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and vehicles covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 72

12 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2011 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 73

13 Published 3Q Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC ( Pike ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication. 74