deal with expected transport volumes DB Mobility Logistics AG Dr. Markus Hunkel Strategy DB Schenker Jönköping, August 25th 2010

Transcription

1 Longer vehicles and co-modal solutions to deal with expected transport volumes DB Mobility Logistics AG Dr. Markus Hunkel Strategy DB Schenker Jönköping, August 25th 2010

2 Growth, infrastructure limitations and demand for green solutions are general conditions for longer vehicles and co-modal solutions 1. Back on growth track 2. Infrastructure limitations 3. Green solutions Volume Infrastructure t investment t CO 2? '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 4. Governmental planned test for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions in Germany 2

3 1. Back on growth track The pace of recovery will differ in all markets however we re back on a growth track and will return to 2008 volumes in coming years Air freight 2011 Ocean freight 2011 Rail freight >2014 global, in tons m CAGR % +5.0% global, in TEU m CAGR % +5.1% Europe, in tkm bn CAGR % -10% -10% +3,0% -18% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Land Transport 2012 CL / SCM 2011 Rail freight 2014 Europe, in EUR bn global, l in EUR bn CAGR CAGR Germany, in tkm bn % +6.7% +3.9% -9% -8% +5.9% -17% CAGR % +4,4% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Pre-crises forecast 2008 Actual forecast 20xx Approximate year of return to 2008 level Source: SMP BP 2008/2009, Market models DB ML AG, international press (may 2010) 3

4 2. Infrastructure limitations Despite growing volumes the risk of more limited funding of infrastructure has increased due to strengthened budget consolidation efforts EXAMPLE GERMANY 165% 100% ( 95) Transport volume Infrastructure expenses Back on growth track Consolidation efforts? Sources 1) Transport volume in tkm : Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung: "Verkehr in Zahlen 2009/2010)", 2009 (road, rail, inland waterways) 2) Current figures 2009: Statistisches Bundesamt 3) Forecast based on growth figures: ProgTrans World Transport Reports Edition 2010/2011 (June 2010) 4) Infrastructure investments (road, rail, inland waterways): Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung: "Verkehr in Zahlen 2009/2010)", 2009, pages

5 2. Infrastructure limitations Even if the realization of important infrastructure projects is assumed, in the long run major capacity shortages on main axes will appear EXAMPLE GERMANY Utilization analysis Rail Infrastructure Utilization Very low low normal high very high Freight traffic forecast 2030 on behalf of the German Government Realization of major infrastructure projects (Ried, Y, 8.1/8.2 e.g.) already assumed Still major capacity shortages on main axes main driver hinterland traffics Source: Freight traffic forecast for project DEWIMOBIN, GSV 5

6 3. Green Solutions Commitment to limit temperature rise to 2 C will increase demand for sustainable CO 2 -reduced transport solutions Worldwide CO 2 reduction targets 1) schematic ~20% 50% = ~80% +2 Transport sector causes 23% of worldwide CO 2 emissions Industrialized countries mostly have to reduce more than 50% CO 2 by 2050 Today s targets are not ambitious enough; regulatory requirements will be intensified Demand behaviour of industry customers and end-consumers is going to change ) In comparison to 1990; CO 2 reduction required in order to limit temperature rise to 2 C Source: GSL, spiegel-online.de, europa.eu 6

7 3. Green Solutions To implement our climate goals, Deutsche Bahn developed an integrated climate and energy strategy Climate and energy strategy of DB 1 Product portfolio 2 Operations & Production 3 Energy procurement Recovery of environment with new green products Protection of climate through more energy efficiency Reduction dependence of fossil energy 4 Communication Consistent communication of climate- and environment activities by DB ECO-Program 7

8 3. Green Solutions Rail freight is a key element for green solutions - by opting for the product Eco Plus, rail freight will run completely CO 2 -free Example Audi: Transport from Ingolstadt to Emden 1) CO 2 Emissions in thousand tons Eco Plus: CO 2 -free rail freight transports in Germany Eco Plus offers its rail freight customers CO 2 -free transports ,500 t CO 2-5,250 t CO 2 Truck Rail Eco Plus Audi is the first customer of CO 2 - free rail freight of DB Schenker Rail Audi saves 35 kg CO 2 per transported car additional to normal rail transport A quarter of rail transported Audicars will be carried without CO 2 Emissions 1) Transport of cars between Ingolstadt Nord and Emden per year (625 trains) 8

9 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions As a result, it will be essential to use the existing infrastructure more efficiently and offer sustainable solutions Transport volumes in Europe, especially on the main corridors, will rise Major capacity shortages on main axes will appear despite the realization of important infrastructure Demand for sustainable, CO2-reduced transport solutions will rise Better utilization of existing infrastructure is mandatory The strength of each transport mode on its own and in combination (co-modality) has to be exploited Full potential for reducing CO 2 emissions needs to be tapped 9

10 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions Given new governmental plans for the transportation sector e.g. test run for longer vehicles - DB and VDA released joint guidelines June 8th 2010 Key messages Strengthen the role and position of transport policy and raise acceptance of logistic business in the public Increase transport performance by opening of markets and harmonization of competitive conditions in europe Stabilize infrastructure funding at least at today s level including actual economic stimulus programs Use infrastructure more efficiently by co-modal solutions Longer vehicles should increase efficiency but must not attack modal splits 10

11 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions Co-modality - All transport modes should be used according to their strengths and actual hurdles must be reduced [hurdles] Today only small fraction of trailers in the market is cranable Capacity constraints in infrastructure (tracks, terminals) Intermodal transport chain Origin Pre-carriage Transhipment Main haul Transhipment Post-carriage Destination transport large volumes and/or over long distances Transport small volumes and/or over short distances 11

12 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions Rail - Longer trains which are able to use the existing rail network far more efficiently need to be looked at more closely Maximal train length in Europe Longer freight trains 600 m 750 m 835 m 900 m 50 m m Longer freight trains mean an efficiency increase for rail transport t along the main corridors (e.g. north-south) regular service Padborg-Maschen as of 12/2010 Infrastructure measures, e.g. longer sidings are needed to allow longer freight trains to be overtaken by faster passenger trains Infrastructure investment is still significantly lower than the cost of building additional track to expand existing network capacity for today s 750 meter trains successful study on North-south-corridor & Rhine-corridor in 2010, test run with 1000m in 2008 proof of concept actually started 12

13 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions Road - An unregulated increase of truck length would harm rail and undermine CO 2 -reduction and rail infrastructure utilization Truck lengths today and discussed d proposals Conventional trucks Longer trucks Longer trucks will lead to a decrease in truck- based transport prices During the last downturn it has been proven, that falling road prices significantly harm the modal split of rail Modal split risks for rail would undermine any CO 2 -reduction targets additional parking lots for longer trucks would be needed along the highways, thereby reducing the remaining infrastructure budget DB Schenker rejects any change of truck length, unless a clear framework is in place to protect t rail from a reduction in modal split Source of illustration: CER 13

14 4. Framework for longer vehicles/ co-modal solutions Test run Germany - DB Schenker and VDA call for a cross-modal balanced framework to strenghten co-modal solutions Framework for 4 planned test run Germany Maximum truck length of m, maximum payload remains at current level ( 40t, 44t in intermodal business) All swap bodies and trailers have to be craneable All truck modules of longer trucks (swap bodies and trailers) have to be compatible with existing CT wagons No 14,90 m trailer equipment, since this is extremly complex to handle in normal height and absolutely not compatible in the mega equipment version (3m height) with existing CT wagons Terminal dimensions & processes need to be capable of handling longer trucks and trains: Investment needs to be evaluated General, network-wide approval of longer vehicles is not reasonable dedicated corridors for longer vehicles must be identified 14

15 Management summary Co-modal solutions & longer DB Schenker Volume growth, infrastructure limitations due to budget cutbacks and increasing demand for green solutions are the main drivers for innovations concerning co-modal solutions Given new governmental plans concerning the test run for longer vehicles in Germany DB Schenker rejects any change of truck length unless there is a clear framework in place to protect t rail from a reduction in modal split As a result, DB and VDA released joint guidelines e.g. concerning the test run of longer vehicles in Germany as previously described 15

16 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

17 At present, longer trucks are only approved in three European countries Backup Status of longer vehicles in Europe 3 year test run on selected roads until June m approved Test run from 2008 till 2011 with m m approved Test run with 400 truck combinations, they are still in use Test run with m = permission granted = test run underway = test run announced = rejection Source: Internal research (June 2010) 17