Asia Pacific Region: Outlook, Risks and Policy Implications*
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1 Asia Pacific Region: Outlook, Risks and Policy Implications* Thomas Richardson IMF Senior Resident Representative in India ICRIER, New Delhi, October 17, 212 * Material prepared by Romain Duval and IMF Asia Pacific Department Regional Studies Division
2 Outline of presentation Recent economic developments Outlook and risks Policy implications World Economic Outlook (WEO) available at: Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook (REO) available at:
3 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q1 212:Q2 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q1 212:Q2 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q1 212:Q2 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q1 212:Q2 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q1 212:Q2 Growth has slowed across the region Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices (In percent) 15 Quarter over quarter (SAAR) Year over year Industrial Asia East Asia (excl. ) ASEAN India
4 including for India (but important to keep definitions clear) For international comparability: WEO uses calendar year (CY) not fiscal year (FY) WEO uses market prices not factor costs Difference is taxes and subsidies Real GDP growth rate July WEO update October WEO CY 212 (market prices) FY (factor costs) CY 213 (market prices) FY (factor costs)
5 Japan New Zealand Australia Malaysia Korea Thailand Taiwan Province of Philippines Hong Kong SAR Singapore Indonesia Vietnam India while inflation has come down (not in India) Asia: Headline Consumer Prices (Year-over-year percent change) 12 1 Latest available December average
6 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Main driver has been weakening external demand... Advanced Economies: Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted; 5=neutral) Asia: Exports by Economies (Year-over-year percent change) ASEAN East Asia (excl. ) India Japan 45 4 United States Euro area United Kingdom -2
7 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 primarily from Europe, although exports to the US have also fallen lately Asia: Exports of Goods to U.S. and EU (January 21=1; seasonally adjusted) 14 Exports to U.S. Exports to EU
8 Domestic factors have played a role in some cases The 212 Slowdown: More than Spillovers from AEs
9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Aug-12 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 but overall domestic demand has been resilient Selected Asia: Retail Sales Volumes (Year-on-year percentage change) Japan Australia East Asia (excl. ) ASEAN (excl. Philippines)
10 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Aug-12...with supportive financial conditions... Asia: Financial Conditions Index (FCI) (Index; increase = loosening of financial conditions) 8 Industrial Asia East Asia (excl. ) ASEAN India
11 Japan New Zealand Hong Kong SAR Taiwan Prov. of Australia Korea Malaysia Singapore Thailand India Philippines Indonesia and correspondingly robust credit growth Asia: Credit to Private Sector (Year-over-year percent change, as of July 212) Latest available data Average over previous six-months Trend growth
12 European banks deleveraging has been manageable so far Change in Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS Reporting Banks on Emerging Asia (Change over previous quarter, in percent of Emerging Asia GDP).4 211:Q3 211:Q4 212:Q Europe France United Kingdom Germany United States Australia Japan Note: Claims are on ultimate risk basis. Expressed in terms of four-quarter sum of quarterly GDP (in U.S. dollar) of Emerging Asia.
13 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep Portfolio inflows have resumed as global risk aversion receded Emerging Asia: Equity and Bond Funds Net Flows (In billions of U.S. dollars) Bond funds (4-week moving average, left scale) Equity funds (4-week moving average, left scale) Chicago Board Option Exchange market volatility index (VIX, right scale)
14 Bond flows as percentage of starting allocations further stimulated by ECB announcements Weekly Bond and Equity flows (Percentage of starting allocation) Equity outflow but bond inflow Vietnam Taiwan POC Philippines EM Asia Malaysia Thailand Indonesia India Equity inflow and bond inflow Korea Singapore.3 Hong Kong SAR Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Taiwan POC Philippines Malaysia India EM Asia Singapore Jul 18 to Jul 25 Jul 25 to Aug 8 Korea Equity outflow and bond outflow Equity inflow but bond outflow Equity flows as percentage of starting allocations Emerging Asia for IMF includes East Asia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam.
15 Bond flows as percentage of starting allocations and recent FED announcements Weekly Bond and Equity flows (Percentage of starting allocation) Equity outflow but bond inflow.7 EM Asia Thailand Indonesia Hong Kong SAR Malaysia Vietnam Taiwan POC Hong Kong SAR India Vietnam India Indonesia Equity inflow and bond inflow EM Asia Philippines Thailand Malaysia.3 Korea Singapore Singapore Korea Sep 12 to Sep 19 Sept 5 to Sept Equity outflow and bond outflow Equity inflow but bond outflow Equity flows as percentage of starting allocations Emerging Asia for IMF includes East Asia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam.
16 OUTLOOK AND RISKS
17 25Q1 26Q1 27Q1 28Q1 29Q1 21Q1 211Q1 212Q1 212Q4 Growth is projected to pick up modestly and gradually, driven by accommodative policies and stronger external demand Indicator Model for Asia: Projected versus Actual Growth in Real GDP (Quarter over quarter, in percent; SAAR) Confidence interval (1 S.D.) Actual growth rate 12 Model forecast WEO Forecast
18 but despite significant downward revisions to our forecast Asia will remain the global growth leader Asia: Change in 212 Growth Forecast (In percentage points) Change from September 211 forecast Change from April 212 forecast Industrial Asia East Asia South Asia ASEAN Less than 3 Above 3 but less than 5 Above 5 but less than 8 At or above 8 Emerging Asia Asia
19 Risks to growth are tilted to the downside Asia: Real GDP growth (Central forecast and selected confidence intervals; in percent) Central forecast 5 percent confidence interval 7 percent confidence interval 9 percent confidence interval Global risks 1. Escalation in euro area crisis 2. Fiscal cliff in the US 3. Sharp increase in commodity prices Regional risks 1. Hard-landing in 2. Sustained drop in potential growth
20 Further escalation of euro area crisis remains top risk Euro Area Downside scenario (GDP growth; percentage deviation from baseline) 1 World Euro area periphery Euro area core United States Japan Emerging Asia Latin America
21 although Asia is less vulnerable than other regions both through financial channel Consolidated Foreign Claims - Selected Regions (In percent of GDP; as of 212:Q1) USA Asia & Pacific Latin America & the Carribean Middle Eastern & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging Europe Claims are on immediate borrower basis. Uses quarterly rolling sum of GDP (U.S. dollar) in the denominator. For SSA 211 annual GDP is used.
22 .and trade channel Exports to Europe - Selected Regions (in percent of GDP, as of 21) USA Latin America & the Caribbean Asia & Pacific Middle Eastern & North Africa Subsaharan Africa Emerging Europe
23 Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong SAR Korea Singapore Taiwan Province of Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam India A further pickup in commodity prices is another risk Asia: Impact of 1 Percent Increase in Global Commodity Prices on Headline Inflation (in percentage points) Energy Food Other prices Note: Calculated as the sum of the direct pass through from global food and energy prices to domestic food and energy prices, and pass through from domestic food and energy prices to core inflation (secondround effects). Wholesale prices used for India.
24 One risk emanating within the region: has potential growth declined? JPN AUS NZL HK SAR KOR SGP TWN IDN MYS PHL THA VNM CHN IND Asia: Projected Growth 5-year ahead (In percent; year over year) 1 8 Oct-27 WEO Oct-21 WEO Oct-212 WEO 6 4 2
25 POLICY IMPLICATIONS
26 New Zealand Malaysia Korea Thailand Australia Philippines Indonesia India Current monetary stances buy some appropriate insurance against downside risks 1 8 Selected Asia: Nominal Policy Rates and Taylor Rule Implied Rates (In percent) Policy rate (latest) Taylor rule implied rate 6 4 2
27 Japan Taiwan Province of New Zealand Korea Malaysia Thailand Australia Philippines Indonesia Vietnam India and could be eased further in case of downturn Current nominal policy rates Selected Asia: Policy Rates (In percent; as of September, 212) Real policy rates (deviation from 22 7 average, in percentage points) 9 Cut in nominal policy rate during Lehman crisis
28 26:Q1 26:Q3 27:Q1 27:Q3 28:Q1 28:Q3 29:Q1 29:Q3 21:Q1 21:Q3 211:Q1 211:Q3 212:Q1 Credit-gap in percentage points although scope for policy support varies depending on credit conditions Credit-to-GDP (In percentage point; deviation from HP-trend) Output gap vs. credit gap (As of 212:Q2) Industrial Asia East Asia (excl. ) ASEAN India Singapore Taiwan POC Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines India Korea Japan Australia Hong Kong SAR New Zealand Out-put Gap in percentage
29 JPN AUS NZL HK SAR KOR SGP TWN IDN MYS PHL THA VNM CHN IND Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 and on inflation situation and prospects Asia: Consumer Price Inflation (Year-over-year percent change) Asia: Headline and Core Consumer Prices (Year-over-year percent change) Latest 213 forecast Headline Japan East Asia( excl. ) ASEAN (excl. Vietnam) Core
30 Indonesia India Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Australia Philippines Thailand Korea Japan On fiscal front, need to rebuild buffers but automatic stabilizers could be allowed to play if activity fails to pick up as projected Automatic Stabilizers (Correlation between output gaps and cyclical fiscal balances) 1. OECD (average) Emerging markets (average).2.
31 Public debt And in many cases there remains enough space for discretionary action in case of severe downturn Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance versus Public debt (In percent of GDP, 211) Japan Greece 14 Italy 12 Ireland Portugal 1 UK USA France Euro Area 8 India Spain Germany 6 Malaysia Taiwan POC Thailand Korea 4 Vietnam Philippines 2 New Zealand Hong Kong SAR Australia Indonesia Singapore Cyclically adjusted fiscal balance
32 Frequency of Slowdowns** Need for structural reforms to maintain/raise potential growth and alleviate risks of sustained slowdown Growth Trajectories There seems to be a middle income trap log (GDP/Capita) Taiwan POC Korea 14% 9.5 Thailand Malaysia Mexico 12% 1% 9. Brazil 8% Indonesia Peru Note: t= is defined as the year when the GDP/capita for a particular country reached US$ 3 in PPP terms. t 6% 4% Income Thresholds* low income middle income high income * 1/12 refers to a low income threshold of 1$ and a high income threshold of 12$. ** frequencies are calculated as the ratio of slowdown episodes to the total number of
33 and to deliver more inclusive growth Gini Index (In Gini points, latest available) Weighted Average (by 29 Population) Average South Asia Industrial Asia NIEs ASEAN Sub Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and Caribbean Central and Eastern Europe Weighted Average (by 29 Population) Average South Asia Industrial Asia NIEs ASEAN Sub Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and Caribbean Central and Eastern Europe Change in Gini Index (In Gini points, since 199)
34 Thank you Want to know more? See
35 BACKGROUND MATERIAL
36 Indonesia Korea Thailand Philippines India Japan Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Australia Hong Kong SAR ASEAN Latin America Emerging Europe Advanced Economies Improved fundamentals: reduced corporate leverage Corporate Debt-to-Equity Ratios (In percent)
37 Indonesia Korea Thailand Philippines India Japan Malaysia New Zealand Singapore Australia Hong Kong SAR ASEAN Latin America Emerging Europe Advanced economies 25 Improved fundamentals: reduced financial sector leverage Debt-to-Equity Ratios in Financial Firms (In percent)
38 Philippines Thailand Korea Indonesia Malaysia Taiwan POC Vietnam India ASEAN Latin America Emerging Europe Improved fundamentals: reduced exposure to short-term external funding Short-term External Debt (In percent of gross official reserves)
39 Indonesia Malaysia Korea India Thailand Latin America Emerging Europe New potential sources of vulnerability: increased international financial integration Foreign Holdings of Local Sovereign Bonds (in percent)
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