Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr.

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1 Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. Assistant Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank 1 Overseas Development Institute London, 12 April 2012

2 Key messages Developing Asia to maintain growth momentum despite weak global demand 6.9% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013 Inflation will moderate to 4.6% and 4.4% in 2012 and 2013, but geopolitical risks can raise oil prices Uncertainties in the eurozone remain, but developing Asia can manage its effects Currently, no clear case for short-term countercyclical policy Developing Asia is facing a new challenge rising inequality 2

3 3 Regional outlook

4 Developing Asia s growth is subdued but steady GDP growth f: forecast year moving average f 2013f 7.3 4

5 despite continued weakness in major industrial economies 2010 Actual 2011 Actual 2012 ADO 2012 projection 2013 ADO 2012 projection GDP growth (%) Major industrial economies United States Eurozone Japan

6 Growth supported by domestic demand Private Consumption Investment Government Consumption Net Exports PRC India Korea, Rep. of Thailand 6

7 Varying Growth by Subregion Subregional GDP growth Developing Asia Central Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia f 2013f The Pacific f: forecast 7

8 emphasizes disparities within Asia f 2013 f South Asia India Pakistan Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam f 2013 f Central Asia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic East Asia China, People s Rep. of Hong Kong, China Korea, Rep. of Taipei,China The Pacific Fiji Islands Papua New Guinea f: forecast 8

9 Inflation is set to recede Inflation year moving average f 2013f f: forecast 9

10 but commodity price volatility is a threat Index, 2005= Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Energy Food 10

11 Nature of the eurozone crisis has changed as has the risk for Asia Risk of liquidity crunch has diminished Fiscal austerity to drag eurozone growth Asia can manage current conditions But if the situation worsens: Effect on global value chains Implications for trade finance Impact on capital flows 11

12 Vulnerability highlights need to further diversify export markets Export shares by subregion, 2011 Central Asia East Asia South Asia US and Europe Southeast Asia Asia Others The Pacific % 12

13 Currently, no clear case for countercyclical policy Output gap, East Asia and India People's Rep. of China Hong Kong, China India Republic of Korea Taipei,China % 6 Output gap, Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam % Forecast Forecast 13

14 Percentage points Monetary policy readjustment may be required if inflation pressures build Change in core and headline inflation, July/Aug 2011 vs. Jan/Feb Real interest rates China, People's Rep. of India Indonesia Indonesia Pakistan Korea, Rep. of Core Headline Thailand Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 14

15 Fickle capital flows need to be watched Capital flows, emerging Asia FDI Portfolio Other investments Net $ billion Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q

16 Boost domestic demand without undermining fiscal positions Budget-neutral measures for expenditure switching to social spending Expand expenditure alongside revenue enhancements Important for Asia in confronting rising inequality 16

17 Confronting rising inequality in Asia 17

18 Inequality in Asia is on the rise Inequality increased in countries accounting for more than 80% of Asia s population Gini coefficients worsened from: 32 to 43 in the PRC 33 to 37 in India 29 to 39 in Indonesia Taking developing Asia as a single unit, its Gini coefficient went from 39 to 46 18

19 as rich have benefited from growth more than the poor Quintile ratios, countries with rising inequality BAN GEO IND INO LAO PRC SRI TAJ 1990s 2000s 19 BAN=Bangladesh; GEO=Georgia; IND=India; INO=Indonesia; LAO=Lao PDR; PRC=People s Republic of China; SRI=Sri Lanka; TAJ=Tajikistan

20 Both within- and between-country inequality increased in Asia Within-country inequality Between-country inequality Between-country inequality grew faster, due to PRC s relatively rapid growth But more than 2/3 of inequality in Asia still due to within-country inequality 20

21 Asia s inequality is lower, but its rise over time is a concern Average Gini in developing Asia was 38 compared with 52 for Latin America Asia s recent experience contrasts with growth with equity in the 1960s and 1970s Many African and Latin American countries recorded declines in Gini coefficients 21

22 Inequality of opportunity is also prevalent Children from poorest households 3 5 times more likely to be out of school, and times less likely to attend college Infant mortality rates among poorest households 2 3 times larger Gender disparities in tertiary education persist 22

23 Inequality matters for Asia Widening inequality undermines poverty reduction More inclusive growth would have lifted another 240 million people out of poverty Inequality can weaken the basis of growth itself Can undermine social cohesion and worsen the quality of governance Policy makers recognize the problem 23

24 Why has inequality risen? Technological progress, globalization, and market-oriented reform drove high growth in Asia, but they favored: capital over labor skilled over unskilled workers cities over inland areas 24

25 % Labor share is declining Share of labor income (manufacturing sector), selected Asian countries People's Rep. of China Indonesia India Mid-1990s Mid-2000s

26 Share of between-group inequality, % Education inequality accounts for 25 35% of total inequality Income inequality decomposition by educational attainment of household head PRC India Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Thailand 26

27 Spatial differences contribute to widening inequality Share of spatial inequality to total inequality (%) Sri Lanka (2009) Philippines (2009) Pakistan (2008) Indonesia (2009) India (2008) Viet Nam (2008) Bhutan (2007) PRC (2007) 27

28 Policy makers can act to reverse rising inequality Implement targeted fiscal policies to reduce inequality in human capital Introduce interventions to address lagging regions Make growth more employment friendly to increase the labor income share 28

29 Key messages Developing Asia to maintain growth momentum despite weak global demand 6.9% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013 Inflation will moderate to 4.6% and 4.4% in 2012 and 2013, but geopolitical risks can raise oil prices Uncertainties in the eurozone remain, but developing Asia can manage its effects Currently, no clear case for short-term countercyclical policy Developing Asia is facing a new challenge rising inequality 29

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