The Emerging Markets The Evolving View From a Developed Perspective

Transcription

1 The Emerging Markets The Evolving View From a Developed Perspective CFA Society Pittsburgh May 22, 2014 John Parsons Partner & Manager, Institutional Marketing

2 MSCI Classification of Global Equity Markets United States Developed Intl. Emerging Markets Frontier Markets Source: Wilshire Atlas 2

3 View from 10,000 Feet 5% 9% 25% 45% 58% 45% 46% 23% 28% 7% 9% 0.4% Frontier Population GDP Equity Market Cap Frontier & Beyond Emerging Markets Developed International Markets US Source: World Bank/IMF, US Census, MSCI Barra data at December 31,

4 Emerging Markets Performance Index Performance (cumulative) Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 MSCI EM INDEX MSCI EAFE INDEX S&P 500 INDEX Source: MSCI Barra, S&P (Data as of December 31, 2013) 4

5 EM Sovereign Bond Spread Source: Bloomberg, data as of December 31, 2010 Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation. 5

6 Equity Markets Performance May 2012 March Index Performance (cumulative) MSCI EM INDEX MSCI EAFE INDEX S&P 500 INDEX Source: MSCI Barra, S&P (Data as of March 31, 2014) 6

7 Fed Taper Source: Barclays Asset Allocation Research, Global Asset Allocator: Who is vulnerable to Fed tapering?, May 28,

8 China Taper 35 Chinese Fixed Asset Investment Year-Over-Year Growth YOY % Change Chinese Fixed Asset Investment Growth Source: Bloomberg, data as of July 31,

9 Emerging Markets Valuation Discount at a 10-Year High vs DM St Dev 0 VALUATION GAP BETWEEN EMERGING MARKETS AND DEVELOPED MARKETS* St Dev BCA Research * NORMALIZED AVERAGE OF PRICE-TO-SALES, PRICE-TO-CASH FLOW, PRICE-TO-BOOK, PRICE-TO-TRAILING EARNINGS, PRICE-TO-FORWARD EARNINGS; AND DIVIDEND YIELD. THE ZERO LINE CORRESPONDS TO THE SAME VALUATION SCORE IN DEVELOPED MARKETS AS IN EMERGING MARKETS. SOURCE: IBES, BLOOMBERG AND MSCI INC. (SEE COPYRIGHT DECLARATION). Source: BCA Research, Monthly Forecast and Analysis of the U.S. Economy and Financial Markets, March

10 Emerging vs. Frontier Markets 1600 Indices Since Inception (relative to 100) Dec 1987 May 2002 Dec 1992 May 2007 Dec 1997 May 2012 Dec 2002 Dec 2007 Dec 2012 MSCI EM MSCI FM Source: MSCI Barra, Wilshire Atlas (Data as of June 30, 2013) Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation. 10

11 Emerging Markets Weight: 1988 vs Frontier Versus Emerging Markets Market Capitalization, 1988 Market Capitalization, 2014 Developed 99% Developed 90.1% Emerging 1% Emerging 9.5% Frontier 0.4% Source: MSCI Barra, data as of March 31, 2014; Emerging Markets: A 20-year Perspective. 2008, MSCI Barra; MSCI World Index. 11

12 Population Distribution Source: BlackRock, Crossing the Frontier: Accessing New Sources of Growth and Diversification with Frontier Markets, p. 8, 2/21/14. 12

13 Population Distribution USA Germany Japan Age Group Percent Female % Total Gender Percent Male Percent Female % Total Gender Percent Male % Total Gender Percent Female Percent Male Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base (IDB). Data as of December

14 Population Distribution China India Brazil Age Group % Total Gender Percent Female Percent Male % Total Gender Percent Female Percent Male % Total Gender Percent Female Percent Male Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base (IDB). Data as of December

15 GDP Growth Rates Last 10 Years of Growth Expected Annual GDP Growth Top Ten Countries by GDP Growth Macao Azerbaijan Qatar China Angola Turkmenistan Ethiopia Mongolia Bhutan Panama Frontier Countries Emerging Countries Source: World Bank, Citigroup: 15

16 EM Market Capitalization China South Korea Brazil Taiwan South Africa India Russia Mexico Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Turkey Chile Poland Colombia Philippines Peru Egypt Czech Republic Hungary Morocco Source: MSCI Barra, data as of June 30, Emerging Markets Countries by Market Cap June 30, % 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 16

17 Economic Management: Debt General Government Gross Debt as a % of GDP (2011) Emerging Markets Europe Good Bad Other Developed Brazil 35 Germany 60 Greece 117 Japan 223 China 19 Spain 70 Ireland 102 USA 99 India 72 UK 82 Portugal 87 Indonesia 26 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010 Please read the disclosures on the last page, which are an integral part of this presentation. 17

18 Stock Market Penetration 160% Market Capitalization to GDP by Country 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Wilshire Atlas, MSCI Barra, CIA Fact Book. Data as of December 31,

19 Risks - Corruption Any time you go into Emerging Markets, you are trading the rule of law for growth. Sam Zell Source: Corruption Perceptions Index 2011 Released 19

20 No Clear Correlation Between Long-Term GDP Growth and Equity Returns Source: BCA Research, The Bank Credit Analyst, November

21 Quality & Growth Characteristics EM vs. Developed Companies Percent Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Debt/Equity Std. Dev. of ROE Trailing 5-Yr. Trailing 5-Yr. Sales Growth Earnings Growth Trailing 5-Yr. Cash Flow Growth Trailing 5-Yr. Dividend Growth MSCI EM Index MSCI World Index Source: Wilshire Atlas, five-year historical data as of March 31,

22 Revenue Perspective of the MSCI ACW Index MSCI ACW Index as of December 31, 2012 Developed Europe Emerging Markets Asia/Pacific Canada United States Domicile (%) Revenue (%) Source: American Funds, Investment Insights: The New Geography of Investing; April 2013, p

23 Example: Global Equity Strategy Model Portfolio Portfolio Weights versus Estimated Sources of Revenues by Geography December 2012 North America Europe & Middle East Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Index Weight by Domicle (%) Portfolio Weight by Domicile (%) Portfolio Weight by Revenue (%) Revenues are calculated based on Harding Loevner s estimates of percentage geographic revenues for companies held in the portfolio for the latest fiscal year. Portfolio weights are calculated based on MSCI classification of stocks by country/region at June Since revenues/region for the MSCI All Country World Index are not available, this analysis does not include a comparison of Portfolio vs Index revenues/region. 23

24 Emerging & Frontier Markets Correlations Source: Citigroup: 24

25 Risk Developed Markets, EM & Frontier 25 Contributions to Total Projected Risk Total Projected Risk Region Country Industry Fundamental Currency Covariance Specific Risk -10 Developed Markets Emerging Markets Frontier Markets Source: Wilshire Atlas (Data as of March 31, 2014) 25

26 Expected Returns Source: GMO *The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. US inflation is assumed to mean revert to long-term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years. 26

27 Some Considerations for Emerging Markets Allocations Default assumption: MSCI ACW Index Weight 10.5% of Equities + Growth - Risks + GDP Growth/Demographics + Stock market penetration - EM Revenues of Multinationals +/0/- country economic management (reserves, currencies, inflation) - Political risk - Volatility + Expected Long-Term Returns + Valuations (current) + Opportunity for Alpha 0/+ Portfolio Construction 0 EM high correlations + Frontier low correlations Client risk tolerance & timeframe 27

28 Disclosures Investing in stocks entails the risks of market volatility. The value of all types of stocks may increase or decrease over varying time periods. To the extent the investments depicted herein represent international securities, you should be aware that there may be additional risks associated with international investing, including foreign economic, political, monetary and/or legal factors, changing currency exchange rates, foreign taxes, and differences in financial and accounting standards. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The Index consists of 21 emerging market countries. The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure equity market performance of frontier markets. The Index consists of 26 frontier markets countries. The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure global developed market equity performance. The Index consists of 23 developed market countries. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free floatadjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the US & Canada. The Index consists of 21 developed market countries. The MSCI All Country World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global developed and emerging markets. The Index consists of 44 developed and emerging market countries. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure performance of US stocks. You cannot invest directly in these Indices. Harding Loevner Global Equity Model Strategy Sources of Revenues are shown as supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Global Equity Composite GIPS Presentation, which is available on request. MSCI Barra and S&P do not make any express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any GICS data contained herein. 28