Climate change impacts on fisheries: implications for trade and trade policy

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1 Climate change impacts on fisheries: implications for trade and trade policy Dr. Edward H. Allison Director Policy, Economics and Social Sciences The WorldFish Center Penang

2 Outline Fisheries, aquaculture, trade and livelihoods - overview Impacts of climate change on fishery production systems Implications of projected CC impacts for trade and contribution of fisheries to the regional economy, food system and poverty reduction

3 The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2008 (FAO) 144 million tonnes produced in 2006, million tonnes for human consumption Kg/capita Most capture fisheries fully exploited or depleted 15 % of animal protein for 2.9 billion people 47 % from aquaculture (growing 8.7% per yr), current value US$78.8 billion 44 million fishers & fish farmers, 520 million people 8 % of the world s population depend on fisheries

4 The Global Fish Trade Worth US$ 85.9 billion in % all fish production exported Net exports of developing countries up 4 times since 1986 Controversies over costs and benefits (nutritional security, distributional issues) Concerns over governance of both resource extraction and trade Growing use of standards (health, ecolabels, fair trade)

5 CLIMATE CHANGE CC impacts on fisheries and aquaculture Ocean currents ENSO Sea level rise Rainfall River flows Lake levels Thermal structure Storm Severity Storm frequency Acidification Effects on: Production Ecology Fishing & Aquaculture operations Communities Livelihoods Wider society & Economy Impacts on: Species composition Production & yield Distribution Diseases Coral bleaching Calcification Safety & efficiency Infrastructure Loss/damage to assets Risk to health & life Displacement & conflict Adaptation & Mitigation costs Market impacts Water allocation

6 Vulnerability to climate change: Global assessment (Allison et al, 2009) Vulnerability the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change (IPCC, 2007) Which countries are most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries?

7 Vulnerability analysis framework EXPOSURE Nature and degree to which countries are exposed to predicted climate change SENSITIVITY Degree to which economies & people are likely to be affected by fisheryrelated changes POTENTIAL IMPACTS All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes VULNERABILITY

8 Components of vulnerability Exposure 2050 surface temperatures (HadCM3 model, 2 scenarios) Sensitivity (Fisheries dependency marine and inland) Landings and contribution of fisheries to employment, exports and dietary protein (FAO, World Bank) Adaptive capacity Human development indices (health, education, governance, and economy size) Vulnerability 132 nations Robust to different methods of weighting and combination

9 High dependance on fisheries Very low Low Moderate High No data Asia, Africa, South America

10 Highest Vulnerability Very low Low Moderate High No data Africa, Asia, north-western South America, Russia, Ukraine 2/3 of most vulnerable are Least Developed Countries

11 Highly Vulnerable Regions Africa Very low adaptive capacity High nutritional dependence Marine and inland production closely related to climatic variation Asia High fisheries dependence (revenues, employment, nutrition) Heavily exploited marine ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs), shelf seas) Major river fisheries highly vulnerable to climate change (Mekong, Gangetic floodplain) South America High exposure Climate-sensitive upwelling fisheries See Allison et al. (2009) Fish and Fisheries

12 The Global Fish-meal industry climate-fisheries-trade interactions Global Climate Small Pelagic Fish Global economy 6Mt Fishmeal Mt Fish oil (from 30 Mt fish or 25 % Global catch) Poultry Aquaculture Pigs

13 Climate and other drivers affect price, subsitution, aquaculture productivity

14 Fishmeal prices, climate change and sustainability of Asian shrimp farming Shrimp farming grew rapidly from the beginning of the 1980 s. Mainly farmed in Asia, over 75% of world production in China and Thailand (majority of rest farmed in South America mainly Brazil). Rising feed prices undermine competitiveness Combined with environmental concerns addressed through organic, ecolabelling etc But shrimp farming systems are resilient to some CC impact e.g. Saline water intrusion in coastal zones

15 Inland fisheries, climate change, and regional trade

16 Policy responses Support adaptation of Asia s artisanal fisheries and smaller-scale fish farmers, using low-input technologies Use of aquaculture in coastal zones to compensate for loss of income from land salinization and resuced supplies from overexploited or climate-impacted capture fisheries Promote harmonization of standards and support producers and processors to comply with them ecolabels, fair trade, food safety and quality Develop biosafety protocols (shrimp diseases etc) Invest in strengthening regional trade as well as looking to global markets

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