CONSIDERATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASE IN COASTAL VULNERABILITY IN TINHARÉ AND BOIPEBA ISLANDS, BAHIA, BRAZIL, IN FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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1 CONSIDERATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASE IN COASTAL VULNERABILITY IN TINHARÉ AND BOIPEBA ISLANDS, BAHIA, BRAZIL, IN FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Carla I. Elliff & Ruy K. P. Kikuchi Universidade Federal da Bahia
2 Coastal Vulnerability Exposure to erosion and inundation + Population
3 Coastal Vulnerability Biological and geophysical factors increase/decrease in CV Natural Capital Ecosystem Services
4 Coral Reefs in Brazil High endemism Low diversity Siliciclastic sediments on nearshore reefs Stressful factor: decrease in luminosity
5 Tinharé and Boipeba Islands Fringing reefs Important ecosystem services MPA Chronic human impacts Tourism: Morro de São Paulo Lack of sewage system Fisheries
6 Tinharé and Boipeba Islands Fringing reefs Important ecosystem services MPA Chronic human impacts Climate change impacts? Tourism: Morro de São Paulo Lack of sewage system Fisheries
7 Objective Assess the potential coastline protection provided by these coral reefs in the current scenario and in a scenario of coral reef absence (extreme reef decline)
8 InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Coastal Vulnerability Model Qualitative potential for shoreline protection Exposure Index Geomorphology Relief Habitats Winds and waves Storm surges Simplification of processes Coastal vulnerability in Tinharé and Boipeba Islands, Brazil
9 Coastal Vulnerability Model Input Area of Interest must include WaveWatchIII points Geomorphology polyline Exposure Index Coral reef polygon Relief and bathymetry Population data
10 Scenarios Current scenario Scenario of absence of coral reefs Extreme Chronic impacts + bleaching + ocean acidification Exhibition: Landscapes of the Past by Hannah Luk
11 Results *pixel size 350x350 m
12 Results Population Morro de São Paulo Gamboa
13 Results Population Garapuá Boipeba island
14 Results Gamboa and Quarta Praia Praia do Pontal (center-south) with the coral reefs
15 Results Gamboa and Quarta Praia Primeira, Segunda and Terceira beaches Praia do Pontal (north) Praia do Pontal (center-south) Boca da Barra with the coral reefs
16 Results Gamboa and Quarta Praia Harbor Primeira, Segunda and Terceira beaches Praia do Encanto Garapuá Praia do Pontal (north) Praia do Pontal (center-south) Boca da Barra Boipeba 34.1% of the coastline presents moderate to high vulnerability with the coral reefs
17 Results Without the coral reefs 46.8% of the coastline with moderate to high vulnerability Increase of 12.7% 50.5% of the coastline had some increase in the vulnerability index Areas with mangroves had low vulnerability without the coral reefs
18 Results Without the coral reefs 46.8% of the coastline with moderate to high vulnerability Increase of 12.7% Low index moderate index 50.5% of the coastline had some increase in the vulnerability index Areas with mangroves had low vulnerability without the coral reefs
19 Results Without the coral reefs 46.8% of the coastline with moderate to high vulnerability Increase of 12.7% 50.5% of the coastline had some increase in the vulnerability index Northern Boipeba 7 km (continuous) Areas with mangroves had low vulnerability without the coral reefs
20 Conclusions Concerning results synergy between chronic impacts + climate change
21 Conclusions Concerning results synergy between chronic impacts + climate change Positive thermal anomalies, ocean acidification, sea level rise tipping points
22 Conclusions Concerning results synergy between chronic impacts + climate change Positive thermal anomalies, ocean acidification, sea level rise tipping points Decrease in human well-being more erosion, less tourism
23 Conclusions Concerning results synergy between chronic impacts + climate change Positive thermal anomalies, ocean acidification, sea level rise tipping points Decrease in human well-being more erosion, less tourism Management strategies Climate change adaptation Address local stressors
24 Conclusions Concerning results synergy between chronic impacts + climate change Positive thermal anomalies, ocean acidification, sea level rise tipping points Decrease in human well-being more erosion, less tourism Management strategies Climate change adaptation Address local stressors Greater resilience supply of ecosystem services
25 Thank you
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