Canadian Oil Sands, US National Energy Security & Striving for Sustainability Is There an Incompatibility?

Transcription

1 Canadian Oil Sands, US National Energy Security & Striving for Sustainability Is There an Incompatibility? Alexander J.B. Zehnder Nanyang Technological University, Singapore & Alberta Innovates Energy and Environment Solutions 1 Acknowledgements Dr. Eddy Isaacs

2 Canadian Oil Sands

3 Tar/Oil Reaching the Surface Banks of the Athabasca River

4 Geology of the Oil Sand Formation Assumed travel of the oil to the oil sands Source : cspg 2010, adapted

5 Athabasca River

6 Oil Sand Mining and Upgrading

7 Mining Operations from the Satellite Athabasca River

8 Oil Sand Mining Activities

9 Oil Sands in the Media

10 Size of the Oil Sand Reserve Alberta s oil reserves contribute to 16% of total global reserves, 2 nd only to Saudi Arabia Source: Eddy Isaacs, AI EES, 2008

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12 US Energy Security

13 US Primary Energy Mix (2009) Nuclear Power 8.8% Renewable Energy 8.1% Coal 20.8% Natural Gas 24.7% Petroleum 37.3% Source: EIA 2010

14 US Liquid Fuel Needs

15 Forecast of Canada s Fuel Production Source: CAPP 2006

16 2020 Maximum Contribution of the Oil Sands to the US Oil Needs Numbers are million barrels per day From elsewhere, 6.5 Possible contribution by oil sand 3.5 US production, 11 Elsewhere 2008: Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria Sources: CAPP 2006, HIS CERA, 2009, EIA 2010

17 Market Demands for Western Canadian Crude Oil Actual 2009 vs 2015 Potential PADD: Petroleum Administration for Defense District that defines a market area for crude oil in the U.S.

18 Canadian & US Crude Oil Pipelines Existing and Proposed

19 Striving for Sustainability Environmental Protection & Resource Conservation Economic Prosperity & Community Social Well Being & Equity

20 Sustainability: Environment & Conservation Environmental Protection & Resource Conservation Economic Prosperity & Community Social Well Being & Equity

21 Water?

22 CO 2 Emission? Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, 2010

23 Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Various Sources of Crude Oil 5 to 15% 5 to 25% 70 to 80% Adapted from: Cambridge Energy Research Associate, 2009

24 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Canada Alberta produces 1/3 of Canada s GHG (244 Mt in 2008) Canada s GHG Emissions 15% Oil Sands Source: Government of Alberta

25 Source: CAPP 2009

26 Options for Removing CO 2 Carbon Capture and Storage (CSS) From: IPCC Technical Report, 2005

27 Costs of carbon capture and storage, incl. capital costs for the entire life cycle US$ 12 to 65 per barrel

28 Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)..recycles close to 100% of the water and uses less land but..

29 Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Various Fuels Adapted from HIS CERA, 2010

30 Sustainability: Socio Economic Aspect Environmental Protection & Resource Conservation Economic Prosperity & Community Social Well Being & Equity

31 What says

32 $ per barrel Middle East Other conventional oil Deep water oil Oil shale When does profit start? Coal to liquid Oil sands Venezuela Source: Financial Times December 2008

33 Economic Impact of Oil Sand Operations on Canada on the US US GDP from oil sand activities 11.5* US employment (new jobs) 172** * billion US$, ** thousand added Sources: CERI /CAPP 2008, CERI 2009

34 Oil Sands Activities: Examples of Impacts on Individuals Jobs 10 percent are Aboriginals Fort Chipewyan Health impacts may be oil sands activities related Average costs for a SFH (July 2010) Fort McMurray = 3 x Houston $ 1 invested creates $ 9 of economic activities, 1/3 outside Alberta

35 Annual per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emission (2005): Field for Innovations per capita carbon dioxide emission (metric tons) Source: WRI, 2010

36 Energy Use, Wealth Creation & Innovation Where we should be Switzerland Singapore Data: IEA, Frank van Mierlo 2007

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39 What about the compatibility? 1. Oil sand extractions are socio economically sustainable for both Canada and the US on short term with improvement potential; environmentally they are not. 2. There is no obvious reason for not eliminating fast the major imminent adverse environmental impacts on water and air. 3. Income generated from oil sands need to be invested into more sustainable solutions through: innovations in increased energy efficiency throughout the life cycles (growing wealth while reducing energy use), good CCS solutions, above all a push for developing effective renewable energy sources, not bad surrogates.

40 Oil Sands Activities: Examples of Impacts on Daily Life Jobs for locals Many major oil sands companies have Aboriginal employment policies to recruit local residents. About 10 per cent of the oil sands workforce is Aboriginal, excl. construction work. Average costs for a single family home (July 2010) Houston approx. $ 225,000 Calgary approx. $ 460,000 Fort McMurray approx. $ 670,000 Health impact Possible negative health impacts on Aboriginal People reported, cause under investigation Fort Chipewyan