TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference July 2014

Transcription

1 TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference July 2014

2 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements, estimates and financial information contained in this presentation ("Estimates") constitute forwardlooking statements or information. Such forward-looking statements or information involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the Estimates or results implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements. While presented with numerical specificity, the Estimates are based (i) on certain assumptions that are inherently subject to significant business, economic, regulatory, environmental, seasonal, and competitive uncertainties, contingencies and risks including, without limitation, assumptions of resource, ability to obtain debt and equity financing, capital costs, construction costs, well production performances, operating costs, commodity pricing, differentials, royalty structures, regulatory approvals, and other known and unknown risks, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the control of ULC ("Grizzly"); and (ii) upon assumptions with respect to future business decisions that are subject to change. There can be no assurance that the Estimates or the underlying assumptions will be realized and that actual results of operations or future events will not be materially different from the Estimates. Under no circumstances should the inclusion of the Estimates be regarded as a representation, undertaking, warranty or prediction by Grizzly, or any other person with respect to the accuracy thereof or the accuracy of the underlying assumptions, or that Grizzly will achieve or is likely to achieve any particular results. The Estimates are made as of the date of this presentation and Grizzly disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the Estimates, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Recipients are cautioned that forward-looking statements or information are not guarantees of future performance and, accordingly, recipients are expressly cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information due to the inherent uncertainty therein. There are significant differences in the criteria associated with the classification of reserves, prospective resources and contingent resources. Contingent resources and prospective resources estimates involve additional risks, specifically the risk of not achieving commerciality and exploration risk, respectively, not applicable to reserves estimates. No adjustments for these risks have been made in the groupings of reserves and recoverable resources. All reference to dollars in this presentation should be assumed to refer to Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. All references to reserves and or resources represent Grizzly s interest in reserves and resources prior to the deduction of Crown royalties, unless otherwise noted. 2

3 Investment Highlights One of the Largest Oil Sands Land Positions in Alberta Algar Lake Current Operations Using Rail to Consistently Access Premium Markets Repeatable & Scalable Development Model > 800,000 net acres in the Athabasca and Peace River oil sands regions (100% operated, nearly 100% WI) focused on SAGD development ~ 3.4 billion bbls of 2P+Contingent Resources (1) across more than 30 project areas Privately owned by Wexford Capital and Gulfport Energy Corporation Steam injection at Algar Lake Phase 1 commenced in February, 2014 All 10 well pairs have achieved steam injection, with current production of ~1,000bbls/d First crude oil shipped from Windell to the U.S. Gulf Coast in June, 2014 Windell truck-to-rail terminal at Conklin, Alberta is operational to ship Algar Lake and 3rd party oil and receive diluent Design and permitting is advanced on the Paulina rail-to-barge terminal project, located on the lower Mississippi River in Louisiana Rail rate contracted with CN for 10 years Plan to have > 20 projects ready for SAGD development in the next 5 years, with bitumen production potential of ~170,000 bbbls/d Grizzly s ARMS development model enables repeatable and scalable project development, reducing execution and financing risk 1. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31,

4 Accomplishments since Last Conference Algar Lake Completed Phase 1 construction and commissioning First Oil was achieved in April Current bitumen production is ~1,000 bbls/d Anticipate peak production of ~6,000 bbls/d by mid 2015 May River Filed a 12,000 bbl/d regulatory development application in Q First round of Supplemental Information Requests (SIRs) have been received Completed an 83 km 2D seismic program in Q Processing of the data is well advanced and will be used to support a full field delineation drilling program Cadotte Rail Strategy Booked 345 mmbbl Contingent Resource (1) Acquired additional lands in the Peace River area Developed delineation drilling and seismic programs and plans for regulatory work Constructed and commenced operations at the Windell truck-to-rail terminal Shipped first crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast Completed design engineering and filed development permits for Paulina rail-to-barge terminal Currently in discussions with 3rd parties for transloading business at both terminals 1. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31,

5 800,000+ Net Acres of Alberta Oil Sands Leases Lease Other Oil Sands Lease Alberta Oil Sands Areas Producing Project Under Construction Thermal Project City of Fort McMurray City of Peace River Exposure to All Play Types in Athabasca & Peace River 5

6 Grizzly Assets Grizzly has a high quality resource based on Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage ( SAGD ) with additional upside using other reservoir recovery processes 3.4 billion bbls of 2P + Contingent Resources (1) Resources primarily located in low risk clastic reservoirs, with some exposure to the carbonates Two thirds of current lease position remains unexplored, which provides upside potential Clastics (Existing Technologies) (1) Proved Reserves (mmbbls) 2P Reserves (mmbbls) Contingent Resources (mmbbls) 2P Reserves + Contingent Resources (mmbbls) Potential (1) Plateau Production (bbls/d) Operating Algar Lake ,000 Near-Term Development Projects May River ,000 Cadotte ,000 Thickwood ,000 Other Projects Additional Growth Properties 0 0 1,769 1, ,000 Total Existing Technologies ,925 3, ,000 Carbonates (Technology under Development) (1) Additional Growth Properties ,000 TOTAL ,112 3, , Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. as at December 31, 2013; All Contingent Resources herein refer to Best Estimate. 6

7 Grizzly Development Portfolio Algar Lake Phase 1 Windell Rail Terminal Value $ / BOE Thickwood May River Phase 1 Algar Lake Phase 2 2 billion barrels of resources on ~30+ properties Cadotte LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT APPLICATION FILED PROJECT DEVELOPMENT APPLICATION RECEIVED CONSTRUCTION 1 ST OIL PROJECT PERFORMANCE DEMONSTRATED HARVEST TIME TO PRODUCTION DE-RISKING OF ASSETS Creating Value by Advancing Project Development 7

8 Grizzly Project Development Portfolio Property # ARMS Plants Production Potential (bbls/d) (1) 2P Reserves + Contingent Resources (2) (mmbbls) Status Algar Lake Phase 1 1 6, Producing Algar Lake Phase 2 1 6, Regulatory Approval Received May River Phase , Regulatory Application (filed Dec 2013) and 1 st round of SIRs have been received May River Full Field 12 90, Plan to file Regulatory Application by December 2016 Cadotte 7 50, Plan to file Development Application by December 2016 Thickwood 1 5, Regulatory Application filed December 2012 Total ,000 1, Management Estimates; 2. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31, 2013 Attractive Scalable Development Portfolio 8

9 Grizzly s ARMS Development Model Built and commissioned Grizzly s 1 st ARMS Plant at Algar Lake Demonstrated that ARMS plant works Benefits of the ARMS development model include: Scalable and manageable growth to match reservoir development requirements Improved redundancy and operability Lower cost Lower project execution and financing risk Working on learnings from the first plant to apply to the next project 9

10 Algar Lake Property ~ 12,000 bbls/d Commenced reservoir steam injection at Algar Lake Phase 1 in February, 2014 Steam is currently being circulated through all 10 well pairs, expected to be converted to SAGD production mode by the end of August Current production is ~1,000 bbls/d Full production ramp up expected by the end of Q2/2015 GLJ has assigned 114 mmbbls of 2P Reserves and 35 mmbbls of Contingent Resources Algar Lake Phase 2 regulatory approval is in hand T88 T87 T86 T85 T84 T83 T82 T81 R14 R13 R12 R11 R10 R8W4 10

11 Algar Lake Reference Well AB W4 Up to 22 metres thick bitumen pay Wabiska Wabiskaw-D No bottom water or top gas 18+ metre thick bitumen pay outside of the initial development area McMurray 18m Devonian Single Clean Channel Sand Devonian 11

12 Algar Lake Reservoir Quality Gamma Ray Logs Over Horizontal Production Well Trajectories Excellent Reservoir Quality over Entire Well Length 12

13 May River Property ~ 100,000 bbls/d ~50,000 acres of 100% W.I. oil sands leases 12,000 bbls/d development application filed and 1 st round of SIRs have been received Adjacent to industry leading SAGD projects including Statoil KKD project and close to Jackfish, Christina Lake and CNRL Kirby projects Located ~10 km away from Grizzly s Windell truck-to-rail terminal 96 km 2D full field seismic 59 km 3D full field seismic GLJ has assigned 157 mmbbls of 2P reserves and 662 mmbbls of Contingent Resources 13

14 819 MM Barrels of High Quality Recoverable Bitumen GLJ Best Estimate Net Continuous Bitumen Pay metres Net Continuous Pay Multiple stacked channel system Analogous to nearby Cenovus, Devon, MEG and Statoil projects Up to 40 metres thick bitumen pay with continuous cap rock High permeability sands should deliver bitumen at steam-oil ratios in the 2.2 to 2.8 range 14

15 Cadotte Property ~ 50,000 bbls/d 100% W.I. in ~50,000 acres GLJ has assigned 345 mmbbls of Contingent Resources Up to 18 metres clean, homogeneous net continuous pay in Belloy formation Bluesky Belloy 15

16 Rail Transportation Strategy Potential Rail Transportation Routes Rail provides consistent and flexible access to coastal markets offering Brent pricing Diluent requirements are 50% lower on rail (railbit) than pipeline Condensate back-haul opportunities from the U.S.Gulf Coast are available to resource diluent requirements at lower cost Potential markets for bitumen transport via rail 16

17 Grizzly s Rail Transportation Strategy Windell Rail Terminal - Operational First crude oil shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast in June, 2014 Windell Terminal Site Conklin, AB Located adjacent to our May River site, and in close proximity to 160,000 bbls/d of existing and 1.5 MMbbls/d of planned industry bitumen production Capacity can be expanded to unit train facility of railbit loading and condensate receiving Short pipeline opportunities to access local bitumen production Paulina Terminal Permitting underway Located near 8 complex refineries on the Mississippi River with refining capacity of 2.4 MMbbls/d 350 rail car fleet leased for 10 years Both terminals are located on CN main line. Grizzly has executed 10-year rate contract with CN Grizzly is in negotiations with 3 rd parties to handle volumes at both facilities Paulina Terminal Site - Louisiana 17

18 2014 Business Plan Highlights Algar Lake May River Cadotte Demonstrate Algar Lake reservoir and ARMS plant performance by executing a successful production ramp Achieve positive cash flow by year end Advance the 12,000 bbls/d May River development application Process 2D seismic data, which will be used to direct future core hole drilling to support the filing of a full field development application in 2016 Prepare ARMS design and execution plan based on Algar project experience Conduct detailed reservoir physical and simulation studies Delineation and regulatory work plans for 2015 execution Thickwood Advance Thickwood regulatory development application Rail Strategy Establish rail transportation capability, efficient blending metrics and access to markets that transact based on world oil prices Receive development permits, contract third party business, sanction and construct Paulina 18