Modelling nutrient loading of Danish marine waters
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1 Modelling nutrient loading of Danish marine waters, Hans Thodsen, Shenglan Lu, Anders Nielsen, Gitte Blicher-Mathiesen, Dennis Trolle Institute of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Denmark
2 Outline Setting the scene ~ the Baltic Sea area ~ the background for our project Some challenges Our modelling strategy
3 Baltic Toledo, Spain Sea June 2011 System: 0.4 million sq. km of sea surface million sq. km of drainage 14 countries
4 Baltic Toledo, Spain Sea June 2011 System: 0.4 million sq. km of sea surface million sq. km of drainage 14 countries 95 million inhabitants the worlds largest brackish sea long water residence excessive nutrient inputs overfishing since 1900 change from oligotrophic clear-water sea to eutrophic marine environment
5 World's Largest Dead Zone Suffocating Sea Algae blooms (seen in a July 2005 satellite image) have created the world's largest dead zone in the Baltic Sea (National Geographic, March 2010).
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7 HELCOM - intergovernmental co-operation between the riparian countries - works to protect the marine environment of the Baltic Sea Baltic Sea Action Plan adopted by HELCOM 2007:..restore the good ecological status of the Baltic marine environment by concentrations of nutrients close to natural levels - an end to excessive algal blooms - natural oxygen levels
8 The Baltic Sea Action Plan calculated by catchment nutrient loading models and ecosystem models by the Baltic Nest Institute (BNI) (Savchuk and Wulff (2007), Wulff et al. (2007)). Needed reduction (tonnes) Sub-region P N Bothnian Bay 0 0 Bothnian Sea 0 0 Gulf of Finland 2,000 6,000 Baltic Proper 12,500 94,000 Gulf of Riga Danish Straits 0 15,000 Kattegat 0 20,000 Total 15,250 (42%) 135,000 (22%)
9 The target area of out project: Kattegat, The Danish Straits, the Western Baltic Sea
10 N and P loadings (tonnes) from the Danish land area to the sea N Reduction of 35% P Reduction of 32%
11 Baltic Sea Action Plan Reduction targets for Denmark: 17,210 t N 16 t P N-reduction ~ 35% of 2009-loading! Source: National Environmental Monitoring Programme, NOVANA.
12 Integrated Management of Agriculture, Fishery, Environment and Economy (MAFIA) Develop tools to help managers of river basins and the marine environment to reach targets in a cost-effective way
13 National Environmental Monitoring Programme Stream water monitoring -Established stream water stations - Discharge (continous), N and P (2-4 weeks) Compilation of national agricultural management data (annually): - Crops at field level - Livestock, use of fertilizer, manure at farm level - Crop yields at regional level
14 Agricultural Watershed Monitoring Programme 5 agriculturally dominated catchments (5 15 km 2 ) Detailed sampling: root zone, tile drains, groundwater, streams Annual questionnaire involving all fields, farms: crops, yields, fertilizer, manure, livestock, timing of operations
15 Inventory of diffuse P losses (Poulsen and Rubæk, 2005) Soil erosion 3% Surface runoff Wind erosion 1% Bank erosion 57% Leaching 39% (soil matrix and macropores)
16 Denitrification microbiological reduction of nitrate (NO 3- ) to atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) Heterotrophic: C 6 H 12 O 6 + NO 3 - N 2 + CO 2 H 2 O Autotrophic: FeS 2 + NO H + N 2 + SO 4 + Fe 2+ Fe 2+ + NO 3 - Fe(OH) 3 + N 2 + H +
17 Modelling strategy For each region the land use class Agriculture is split into 14 different crop rotations (5 year cycles) Denmark divided into 6 regions + Sweden + Germany to reflect regional differences
18 SWAT input DEM Soil map Tile drained areas Spatial-temporal resolution 32 m (1.6 m Lidar) 3-layer, 500 m grid 500 m grid Weather: precipitation, temperature, humidity, 10 km grid (50 km grid), daily solar radiation, wind speed Landuse (Corine + Danish inventory) 1 ha Management: crops, fertilizer, manure. livestock Field level / farm level, annual WWTP, scattered dwellings (Q, N, P) coordinates
19 Modelling strategy Division of the drainage basin into regions with separate models Parameterization and calibration of SWAT in data rich mini catchments Particular focus on phosphorus cycling and denitrification Transfer of calibrated parameters to regional models and evaluate model performance for regional monitoring stations.
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22 Monitoring data Discharge Suspended sediment concentration TN, NO 3 concentration TP (unfilt.), PO 4 (filt.) concentration Crop yields Spatial-temporal resolution Daily, +200 stations + 5 times/year, +200 stations 2 4 weeks, +200 stations 2 4 weeks, +200 stations Regional stat., annual
23 Nitrogen Atm. dep. Agri. + forestry Background Point sources Phosphorus Atm. dep. Agri. + forestry Background Point sources
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