Hydrological transport modeling

Transcription

1 Hydrological transport modeling Catchment modeling example from the EU EUROCAT project Catchment - river - coast continuum modeling example from MONERIS modeling Sea-air exchange modeling example from EU CARBOCEAN project N:\adm\arkiv\overhead\2006\CEE\Yale-7.ppt 1

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13 Scenario modeling The Global Orchestration Scenario (GO) Depicts a worldwide connected society, global markets and supra national institutions well placed to deal with global environmental problems Global cooperation to improve the social and economic well being and to enhance global public goods and services The TechnoGarden Scenario (TG) Depicts a globally connected world relying strongly on technology and highly engineering ecosystems to deliver the necessary goods and services

14 The Order from Strength Scenario s (OS) Represents a regionalized and fragmental world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily on regional markets with little attention to the common goods a with individualistic attitude towards ecosystem management The Adapting Mosaic scenario (AM) Depicts a fragmental world resulting from discredited global institutions, Sees the rise of local ecosystem management strategies and the strengthening of local institutions.

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17 Catchments and Coastal Seas in EuroCat Humber AFICO project North Sea Rhine Baltic Vistula Elbe Po Mediterranean Axios

18 DPSIR Framework (OECD) modified for Critical Loads Socio-economic drivers Soil Scenarios Management options Gains & losses Critical basin flux Socio-economic activities Loads, cost, regulation, management River Estuary Atmosphere Critical load Coast Biophyscial properties Transformations, temporal delay Critical concentration Coastal Response

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20 River-Coastal Sea as a continuum in combination with DPSIR Properties of the river catchments Atmosphere Soil River Estuary Coast Coastal Response Human activities Policy Response & Management Options Stakeholders Gains/losses Socio-Economic Drivers Environmental Pressures. Impacts Coastal Response Biophysical properties basin-coast Environmental State Changes:

21 DPSIR Framework (OECD) modified for Critical Loads Socio-economic drivers Soil Scenarios Management options Gains & losses Critical basin flux Socio-economic activities Loads, cost, regulation, management River Estuary Atmosphere Critical load Coast Biophyscial properties Transformations, temporal delay Critical concentration Coastal Response

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23 MONERIS Submodels Atmospheric deposition Tile drainage Erosion Groundwater

24 MONERIS Submodels cont. Overland flow Point sources Urban systems Background

25 Vistula Elbe Rhine Humber Po Axios WP 1. Databases and tools WP 2. Impacts, indicators and critical loads of the receptor WP 3. Scenario s & response/management options WP 4. Past, present and future changes in fluxes WP 5. European level WP 6. Dissemination

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28 Modelling N transfer from catchments to estuaries using deterministic models Integrated Nitrogen Model for European catchments (INCA) Wade et al. 2002

29 Methodology Fertilizer Nutrient Balance on the Agricultural Area Atmospheric Emiss. Livestock Units Nutrient Surplus in Top Soils Crops/yields Agricultural Landuse Sedimentation and Retention on Land Erosion Sorption Desorption Surface Run-off Nutrient Emiss. into the River System Population Connected Dams Nutrient Retention and Losses in the River Systems Type and Classes of WWTP Nutrient Load in the Rivers P&N Emissions Nutrients into Baltic Sea Industry

30 INPUT DATA CATCHMENT DESCRIPTION Generals (subcatchment descripion) Runoff & river load (discharge, DIN, TN, Statistics of municipals ( population, area, arable land) Landuse Soil (erosion) Tile drainage Geology (nutrient to groundwater) Slope Precipitation & atmospheric deposition Surplus Urban Systems (WWTP) PATHWAYS ( submodel parameters ) Erosion Overland flow Atmosph. Depos. Waste Wate Trattment Plants BASIC INFO Tile Drainage Urban Areas Ground water INPUT PARAMETERS parameters ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION calculation OUTPUT DATA EMISSIONS Results Linked to other files

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40 Modelling N transfer: SPARROW SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed Attributes Estimated nitrogen export (kg/km2/yr) Empirically derived estimates from in stream measurements Smith et al A rapid decline in the rate of nitrogen loss with channel size Proximity of sources to large streams and rivers is a major determinant of N transport Alexander et al. 2000

41 LoiczBasin: RiverBasins Impact on Coastal System Functioning Basin&Coast as one system with DPSIR to cover IGBP and IHDP aspects, Focus on horizontal fluxes of carbon, nutrients, water, sediment and toxics Biophysical properties Basin-Coast Atmosphere Soil River Estuary Coast Human Activities Impacts-Coastal Response Policy Policy Response Response & Management Management Options Options Stakeholders Gains/losses Socio-Economic Socio-Economic Drivers Drivers Environmental Environmental Pressures. Pressures. Biophysical properties basin-coast Impacts- Coastal Impacts- Respons Coastal Respons e e Environmental Environmental State State Changes: Changes:?Bas CariBas 2001 Sambas 1999,2001 RusBas EuroCat AfriBasin 2000,2001?Bas EABasin 2001 AusOceBasin Activity Urbanization Damming Impact Eutrophication Erosion/Sedimentation Status Major Major Trend Past, Present and Future System Functioning Industrialization Agriculture Deforestation Navigation Aquaculture Pollution Eutrophication/Pollution Erosion/sedimentation Erosion/Sedimentation Eutrophication Medium Medium Low Low Low Hitlists Regional Drivers and Pressures Impacts & critical loads Scenario development Global upscaling Typology

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47 Air-sea gas exchange: controlling variables & parameterisation Atmospheric boundary layer Sea surface Surface film ; z ~ m Gas Concentration Z C Surface mixed layer Depth F = k w C: What controls k w & how can we estimate it? Which processes are important in influencing C?

48 Microlayer Consumption Model Air Evasion Microlayer Bacteria Bacteria Water Invasion Reactive (CH 4 ) Inert (SF 6 ) Microlayer CH 4 consumption gives enhanced flux (increased k w ) Estimates based on gas chromatography of water phase only Hence enhancements only ever detectable for Evasion

49 Future research: Gases Research priorities for air-sea gas exchange Gas Air to sea Sea to air Seawater Air/sea Atmospheric production/ exchange role destruction process *(9) CO 2 *(4) CO - - CH 4 - ( ) - ( ) NO x/y - (2) (1) - N 2 O - *(5) - - NH 3 (2) (3) *(6) COS - - ( ) DMS - - *(6) Organo- - - *(7) halogens LMWHC s - - POPs - - *(8) - Hg = Primary Research Topic (1) Interaction with sea spray (6) Role in atmospheric particle formation ( ) = Secondary Research Topic (2) Sources of N-nutrient (7) Role in atmospheric oxidant chemistry * = Special Research Topic (3) Is liquid resistance important? (8) Exchange processes untested (4) Role of oceans in atm. CO 2 seasonality (9) Role of wind, waves, bubbles, spray and films (5) Importance of oceans in global budget in exchange processes not well established

50 Fluxes of some biogases in estuaries and their contribution to the total Budgets for these gases on the basis of the literature review in this work Compound Estuary to open ocean flux rate ratio Quantity of estuary emissions in Europe, ktonnes/yr Estuary contribution to total European emissions % Coastal sea contribution to the total sea to air flux Coastal sea contribution to global emission % CH 4 ~ up to 30% N 2 O ~ up to 60% DMS (as S) 1.0 *1 up to 10% 2.0 *1 COS up to 50% Hg ~ x up to 20% ~ 0.5 *1 Contribution to the total European or global emissions of sulfur