Sweden s Commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Socio-economic inpact assessment

Transcription

1 Sweden s Commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan Socio-economic inpact assessment REPORT 5989 SEPTEMBER 2009

2 Sweden s Commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan SWEDISH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

3 Orders Order tel.: +46 (0) Order fax: +46 (0) Postal address: CM Gruppen AB, Box 110, Bromma Internet: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Tel: +46 (0) , fax: +46 (0) Postal address: Naturvårdsverket, SE Stockholm Internet: ISBN pdf ISSN Digital publication Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2009 Printed by: CM Gruppen AB, Bromma 2009 Cover picture: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE, Leif Söderström, Naturvårdsverket

4 Foreword The environment ministers of the Baltic Sea Countries and the European Commission in November 2007, under HELCOM, adopted a joint action plan, the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The plan applies to the Baltic Sea ( including the Kattegat). The eutrophication segment, however, applies only to the Baltic Proper, the Sound and the Kattegatt. The aim of the plan is to achieve good environmental status by The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, in consultation with the Swedish Board of Agriculture and other affected agencies, has drawn up a national plan for Sweden, Sweden's commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan Proposals for a national action plan, Swedish EPA Report The report contains the proposal for a national action plan to fulfil the Swedish commitment. Wherever possible, the costs of the measures have been estimated or their impact has been assessed. The impact assessments have been collated in this report. The overall impact assessment, together with the impact assessments for the whole of the eutrophication segment, for sewage treatment plants and single-family homes, and for large-scale mussel farming, has been prepared by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The Swedish Board of Fisheries has prepared the impact assessments in the biodiversity and fisheries segment. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has coordinated and managed the process. Our hope is that the assessments in the report can also be used in other ongoing processes, such as implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the Baltic Sea strategy. Stockholm, July 2009 Maria Ågren 3

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6 Contents FOREWORD 3 CONTENTS 5 SUMMARY 7 INTRODUCTION 10 Other relevant processes 10 Socio-economic cost and benefit of the whole plan 11 EUTROPHICATION 16 Measures to meet the nitrogen and phosphorus requirement 16 E 3 Measures involving sewage treatment plants, on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes and stormwater 52 E9c Large-scale mussel farming 75 BIODIVERSITY AND FISHERIES 86 B7c Demonstration projects to disseminate experience of successful approaches to habitat restoration in the coastal zone 86 B11a, B22c. Development and implementation of alternative methods (ecological indicators) for the assessment of coastal fish stocks and ecosystems 94 B11b. Experiment to increase knowledge of trophic connections and thereby provide a theoretical basis for ecosystem-based management (the "sprat project") including effects of introduced alien species 96 B12, B17:2f. Development and implementation of effective monitoring and reporting systems for by-caught birds and mammals 97 B12, B17:2f. Development and implementation of effective monitoring and reporting systems for by-caught birds and mammals 103 B14, B17:2e. Safeguard the long-term viability of seal populations by following HELCOM management recommendations and, by 2012, finalise national management plans and implement non-lethal mitigation measures for seal-fisheries interactions 108 B15b. Area-based fisheries management with local participation 118 B16a. Financial incentives that seek to establish a balance between the capacity of the fishing fleet and the biological resource and B17:3 b) Multi-year plan for cod stocks in the Baltic Sea (EC Regulation No 1098/2007) and Recovery plan for cod in the Kattegatt (EC Regulation No 423/2004) 121 B17 Several measures under B17 are process-oriented, and active and successful Swedish involvement in EU negotiations is required if the objectives are to be met 134 5

7 B17:2. a) All catches and by-catches that cannot be released back alive are landed and reported by B17:2c Designate additional permanent closures for fisheries by B17:3 a) The fisheries authorities are urged to take measures to immediately ensure that illegal, unregulated and unreported fisheries etc. cease and develop landing control etc. taking into account the outcome of the BSRAC Conference in March B17:3 b) National management plan for eel (see also B20a) 145 B 22 Coastal fish play an important role in the biodiversity of the Baltic Sea and are of great social and cultural significance 154 Work on the environmental objectives: Zoning 158 Work on the environmental objectives: Alternative forms of management 160 Work on the environmental objectives: Selective methods of fishing 166 6

8 Summary The environment ministers of the Baltic Sea Countries and the European Commission in November 2007, under HELCOM, adopted a joint action plan, the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The plan applies to the Baltic Proper, the Sound and the Kattegatt. The aim of the plan is to achieve good environmental status by The assignment to draw up a proposal for Sweden s national action plan was given to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency in It has been implemented in cooperation with the Swedish Board of Agriculture and other affected agencies. The proposed national action plan is presented in Sweden's commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan proposal for a national action plan (Swedish EPA Report 5985). The assignment also included producing socio-economic impact assessments firstly of the plan in itself and secondly of individual measures. The impact assessments are collated in this report. Only the costs have been estimated for most measures (contained in the draft national plan) as they have not been judged to have any socio-economic consequences. The cost of the measures has been calculated in the overall assessment of implementing the proposed national action plan as totalling around SEK billion per year over the next 20 years. Measures taken in an attempt to meet the nitrogen and phosphorus requirements to reduce eutrophication account for almost the whole of this cost. Several more billion Swedish kronor will be needed for the whole of the eutrophication requirement to be met. The costs of fulfilling the commitments in the other areas remain at just over SEK 200 million a year up to at least 2013, most of this sum being accounted for by the measures to safeguard biodiversity and to adapt fisheries to sustainability. The choice of instruments will affect both who is to bear the costs relating to individual measures and the final cost. Implementation of the majority of the measures, principally in the eutrophication segment, contributes to fulfilling other objectives or regulations, and the cost of implementing the measures therefore ought actually to be shared between these and not solely be borne by the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The reductions in load and costs reported are based in most cases on assumptions, and there are large underlying uncertainties, so that these figures should only be viewed as a pointer. An average cost of reduction (calculated with 4% interest and technical lifetime) has been calculated for the vast majority of the measures, making it possible to relate the measures to one another. The cost of reduction for a measure varies, however, depending on where the measure is implemented. The effect and annual cost presented assume that the full potential of the indicated measure is utilised, so that the costs are overestimated, partly because not all measures have to be implemented in the Baltic Proper and the Sound, but also because the measures targeted at phosphorus in the agricultural sector are implemented in all marine basins and not just in the Baltic Proper. The high cost to public finances is in the payments made through the rural development programme to implement various measures in the agricultural sector. However, half this funding comes from the EU. Public finances will also incur increased costs in reviewing existing permits and supervising municipal sewage treatment plants and industrial plants, while municipalities incur increased costs in the supervision of onsite wastewater treatment of single-family homes. Should any of these measures also include some kind of compensation, this cost has to be borne by public finances. 7

9 The proposed and potential measures together with the effect that can be credited mean a reduction in load of almost tonnes in the Sound at a cost of just over SEK 100 million/year. The nitrogen requirement for the Sound is tonnes, which means that there is a surplus of almost 600 tonnes. In the Kattegatt the measures mean a total reduction in load of approximately tonnes of nitrogen at an annual cost of just over SEK 600 million. This means that measures are required for a further reduction of tonnes of nitrogen before the requirement of tonnes of nitrogen can be met. For the Baltic Proper, the measures presented signify a total reduction in nitrogen of just over tonnes at an annual cost of SEK 840 million. With a requirement of tonnes of nitrogen, this means a surplus of almost tonnes N. The measures to reduce the phosphorus load signify a total reduction of 170 tonnes of phosphorus at a cost of SEK 560 million/year. Reductions of a further just over 100 tonnes of phosphorus are therefore neded to fulfil the requirement of 280 tonnes. The proposed measures in the area of biodiversity on average cost just over SEK 150 million a year for a little more than five years ahead. The effect of the measures on industries other than fisheries is not considered to lead to any major socio-economic costs. Almost half the costs are principally concerned with over-establishment in the fishing industry and the need for fishing effort regulation. It has proved difficult, not least politically, to find instruments that lead to the right measures being taken in both an efficient and cost-effective manner. The measures are disadvantageous to the fishing industry during the period but advantageous in the longer term, as excess capacity is part of the problem. On the other hand, some of the measures signify support for the fishing industry, as public finances are expected to assist the industry in becoming sustainable. There may be additional costs, for example for compensation for encroachment or purchase of land with associated water to establish some form of protection or to restore certain habitats. Restoration work may be expensive and may amount to several hundred million kronor. Most of the measures to deal with the management of hazardous substances relating to the Baltic Sea are of an administrative nature. Sweden has already fulfilled the requirements of the BSAP plan in most cases. The measures in the area of shipping, to at least as great an extent as the measures to tackle hazardous substances, are of an administrative nature. Any decisions to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides will result in costs to the shipping industry, but how high these costs will be depends both on what is decided internationally or nationally and on how the instruments are designed. In view of the fact that central government already supports the shipping industry, public finances may be affected by the choice and design of instruments. Like international aviation, international shipping is in many ways favoured in comparison with other modes of transport. With increasing discussions on how cargo can be carried with as little environmental impact as possible, the shipping industry is unlikely to become less competitive in the future, even if environmental requirements are tightened. 8

10 No attempts have been made to value the benefit of the commitments in the national action plan being implemented. As usual, benefit is more difficult to calculate in monetary terms than costs. The value of the many services provided by the seas in all probability far exceeds the costs of preserving them. 9

11 Introduction The environment ministers in the countries bordering the Baltic Sea and the European Commission decided on 15 November 2007 on a joint action programme to attain good environmental status by 2021 in the Baltic Proper, the Sound and the Kattegatt. The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) consists of four principal segments and another four sections. The main segments are concerned with eutrophication, hazardous substances, biodiversity including fisheries and maritime issues (shipping, accidents, emergency services etc.). The other four sections deal with the development of assessment tools and models, public participation and awareness raising, financing and finally implementation and review of the plan. The countries have undertaken to draw up national action plans that can be jointly assessed by HELCOM in The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency was tasked with drawing up a proposal for Sweden s national action plan in This assignment has been carried out in cooperation with the Swedish Board of Agriculture and other relevant agencies. The proposal comprises around 150 different measures. They are a mixture of specific measures, instruments, knowledge gathering etc. Several are in progress or have already been implemented, others depend on international cooperation for their implementation and yet others are in need of regionalisation, methodological development or other initiatives to enable them to be implemented successfully. The proposed national action plan is presented in Sweden's commitment under the Baltic Sea Action Plan proposal for a national action plan (Swedish EPA Report 5985). The assignment also included preparing socio-economic impact assessments firstly of the plan in itself and secondly of measures contained in the plan. The costs only have been estimated for many of the measures, as they have not been judged to have any socio-economic impacts. This report represents background material for the proposed national plan and contains the socio-economic assessments that have been produced. The section on eutrophication contains an assessment of the impact of all the measures in the eutrophication section and independent assessments of measures for sewage treatment plants, on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes and stormwater, and for mussel farming. A large number of assessments of the impacts of various measures in the area of fisheries are contained in the section on biodiversity and fisheries. The report also contains a summary of the assessment done for the whole plan. The full text of this assessment can be found in Report Other relevant processes Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive has begun in the EU. The Directive stipulates that plans of action are to be drawn up and assessments made of socio-economic impact. This work has begun, and our judgement is that the impact assessments in this report will also be used in that context. Intensive negotiations are taking place on a Baltic Sea strategy in the EU during the current Swedish Presidency (autumn 2009). Here too a plan of action is being drawn up, the measures in which have to have been subjected to impact assessment. Several of the measures are the same as in the BSAP. 10

12 The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has been tasked with preparing socio-economic information about the seas in What s in the sea for me?, Swedish EPA Report Several assignments are in progress at the same time on trading schemes and charges, principally to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to our seas. Socio-economic cost and benefit of the whole plan The value of the many services provided by the seas far exceeds the costs of preserving them (Swedish EPA Report 5872). As usual, benefit is more difficult to calculate in terms of kronor than costs. The benefit of eutrophication being reduced principally accrues to those who in some way come into contact with coasts or seas or in some other way benefit from the ecosystem services provided by the sea. These are principally professional and recreational fishermen, the tourist industry, mobile outdoor recreation and those who live in the affected areas. The benefit of reducing phosphorus inputs accrues to all. Reduced phosphorus inputs are a very important issue in the long term, as phosphorus is a finite but vital resource. Fewer hazardous substances being present in the environment provides favourable health effects for humans and animals. Biodiversity strengthens resilience in ecosystems and promotes sustainable use of resources. Fewer accidents, contributions to reduced eutrophication and reduced risk of introduction of invasive alien species are examples of positive effects of measures in the area of shipping. Improved knowledge increases understanding of ecosystem services and of how they are affected by human activities. Understanding of the need to implement measures is consequently also increased. Better knowledge leads to more cost-effective measures. The cost of the measures described is estimated at around SEK billion per year over the next 20 years. Several more billion Swedish kronor will be needed for the whole of the eutrophication requirement to be met. These figures are subject to very great uncertainty. It is thus tackling eutrophication that is most difficult, accounting for well over 90 per cent of the estimated costs. The costs of fulfilling the commitments in the other areas will remain at just under SEK 200 million a year up to at least 2013, most of this sum being accounted for by the measures to safeguard biodiversity and to adapt fisheries to sustainability. Public finances will presumably need to bear a significant share of the costs. The choice of instruments will influence both who is to bear the costs relating to individual measures and the final cost. Costs of reducing eutrophication in the BSAP marine area The Swedish eutrophication reduction requirement for nitrogen inputs to the Sound and the Baltic Proper costs around 100 million Swedish kronor and between half a billion and a billion Swedish kronor a year. Measures to be taken to meet approximately half the requirement with regard to nitrogen inputs to the Kattegatt cost another half a billion annually. At the cost of another half billion a year around half the requirement with regard to phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Sea is met. This means that for a total sum of nearly two billion Swedish kronor a year the eutrophication reduction requirement in the BSAP is 11

13 achieved except for nitrogen inputs to the Kattegatt and phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Proper. Only about half the requirement is met there. The measures to reduce phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Sea are both expensive and difficult to identify, but can also limit nitrogen inputs. Part of the nitrogen reduction requirement for the Baltic Sea will therefore be achieved through more expensive measures than the cheaper ways available if only nitrogen is looked at. The costs of all this end up in the multi-billion bracket. But it is the measures to reduce the last few thousand tonnes of nitrogen inputs to the Kattegatt and the last hundred tonnes of phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Sea in particular that mean that there is a risk of the aggregate costs of the BSAP reaching around SEK 5 billion a year, or even more. It is in agriculture and sewage treatment plants in particular that there are great opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs. Industry and forestry, holders of on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes, and any activity that contributes to emissions to the air will also need to be subject to all the measures possible to reduce emissions. Some measures in agriculture, for example reduced soil cultivation and better adaptation of fertiliser doses to specific soils and crops, represent a pure gain for the farmer if they are implemented. Other measures that there has not yet been time to assess, where the technology has not been tried out on a large scale or where knowledge is still deficient can, it is hoped, make some difference with regard to both the prospects of meeting the requirements and bringing down costs. Mussel farming and lime filter treatment of phosphorus are two such methods. Treating stormwater may be another path to explore. If the reduction is nevertheless not sufficient, it may finally become appropriate to try to reduce the background leaching of nutrients from all types of land, not just farmland on which fertiliser has been used. The Swedish Board of Agriculture, on the basis of OECD forecasts of the trend in world market prices for foods, has analysed what new relative prices would mean for the development of Swedish agriculture. According to the Swedish Board of Agriculture the forecast prices might mean a change in agriculture which would increase inputs of nitrogen to the Sound, but reduce inputs to the Baltic Proper and Kattegatt by a total of more than tonnes. In addition, phosphorus inputs to the Baltic Sea would decrease by 55 tonnes. With a different price trend, instruments may need to be employed to achieve these nutrient reductions. If the only way of meeting the requirements proves to be partial setaside of land this may become very expensive, for example in a situation in which there are high market prices for agricultural products. There are a number of other proposals between measures that signify cost savings for the farmer and partial set-aside, which may become a very expensive measure. Costs of safeguarding biodiversity and fisheries in the BSAP marine area The proposed measures in the area of biodiversity on average cost just over SEK 150 million a year for a little more than five years ahead. It is proposed that public finances bear all the costs. The effect of the measures on industries other than fisheries is not considered to lead to any major socio-economic costs. The measures are disadvantageous to the fishing industry during the period but advantageous in the longer term, as excess capacity is part of the problem. On the other 12

14 hand, some of the measures signify support for the fishing industry, as public finances are expected to assist the industry in its conversion to sustainability. The socio-economic gain from dealing with overfishing and the costs of the loss of marine ecosystem services are also described in Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Report 5872, What s in the sea for me? Almost half the costs in the area of biodiversity are principally concerned with overestablishment in the fishing industry and the need for fishing effort regulation. It has proved difficult, not least politically, to find instruments that lead to the right measures being taken in both an efficient and cost-effective manner. When fisheries after a few years, it is hoped, have become established at a sustainable level, a large proportion of these costs will presumably disappear. The other half of the costs of biodiversity measures relate to mapping needs, where sea areas or certain key species or habitats in the marine ecosystem need to be mapped. Public finances will need to bear these costs. Depending on the outcome of mapping, these costs may then disappear, for example when all relevant sections of seabed have been examined. There may of course be additional costs, for example for compensation for encroachment or purchase of land with associated water to establish some form of protection or to restore certain sections of seabed and habitats. Restoration work may be expensive and may add up to several hundred million Swedish kronor. Any such measures are not, however, included in the actual BSAP, but come under work on the environmental objectives. Costs of measures against the effect of hazardous substances on the BSAP marine area Most of the measures to deal with the management of hazardous substances relating to the Baltic Sea are of an administrative nature. Sweden has already fulfilled the requirements of the BSAP plan in most cases. With regard to other measures, Sweden is already taking part in the international processes indicated in the plan. In these and further cases the authorities concerned can implement the measures under their ordinary activities. Authorities request extra appropriations for a few items, and in some cases appropriations have already been granted. The additional costs to public finances are estimated to remain at a few million Swedish kronor a year. The largest individual item is biological effects monitoring, which has already had the million kronor it costs funded through the marine environment appropriation. The measures planned under the environmental quality objective of A Non-Toxic Environment, in particular those relating to soil remediation, may be speeded up as a consequence of an inventory being kept of inputs to the sea from landfills or other contaminated land. This might lead to planned costs in the billion kronor bracket needing to be brought forward, despite measures judged to be some way into the future time being concerned. Only the inventory itself is included in BSAP. Agreement has been reached in BSAP to phase out a small number of toxic substances and to introduce stricter rules for others. This has not been judged to be of any major significance to the industries concerned. Phasing-out efforts have also already been initiated in Sweden in most cases. 13

15 Costs of measures to reduce the effect of shipping on the BSAP marine area The measures in the area of shipping, to at least as great an extent as the measures to tackle hazardous substances, are of an administrative nature. This also means that Sweden has in some cases already fulfilled the requirements, in others that Sweden is already taking part in the international processes indicated and often that affected authorities can carry out measures as part of their ordinary activities. New funding of SEK 7 million a year for three years is, however, needed in order to be able to introduce and maintain the proposed aerial monitoring. Increased supervision of discharges of ballast water would also need a few million per year to be effective, and this would require increased appropriations. The EU will probably contribute to the funding of a number of processes relating for example to risk assessments and transportation of hazardous substances, but Sweden will probably have to add a few million per year. It is estimated that the costs to public finances in the whole area of shipping will be around SEK 15 million a year. Any decisions to reduce emission of nitrogen oxides will give rise to costs for the shipping industry, but how high these costs will be depends both on what is decided internationally or nationally and on how the instruments are designed. Emissions from national shipping are relatively low, while emissions from international shipping are very high. Instruments that can encourage measures and be effective without leading to re-flagging must therefore be determined under the international maritime organisations. In view of the fact that central government pays out aid to the shipping industry, public finances may be affected by the choice and design of instruments. Like international aviation, international shipping in many ways is favoured in comparison with other modes of transport. With increasing discussions on how cargo can be carried with as little environmental impact as possible, the shipping industry is unlikely to become less competitive in the future, even if environmental requirements are tightened. This is the case in particular since a kilometre tax for truck traffic, for example, is being introduced in increasing numbers of countries. Shipping that takes account of the environment is both a cost-effective and an environmentally effective mode of transport. For the ports, decisions that they have to deal with wastewater etc. may entail additional costs. These costs will probably to some extent be passed on to the shipping industry and where appropriate to boat tourism. Costs of developing assessment tools and methods and of awareness raising regarding the BSAP marine area In the section of the plan on development of methods and assessment tools, and on awareness raising and capacity building for better development of the environment in the Baltic Sea, the costs to public finances depend on which other research funders are willing to contribute to the development work. Some of the measures touch on measures that have been dealt with in the other segments. In particular they can be regarded as planning material with which to meet the eutrophication requirement. An example is measure A3a, which involves developing research models to understand the problem of eutrophication better and in so doing find strategies to reduce it as cost-effectively as possible. A significant research effort to understand better the Baltic Sea and what needs to be done to preserve and if necessary recreate its marine ecosystem services costs upwards of SEK 10 million. Other initiatives are budgeted at present at just over SEK 20 million a year, but many of the desirable actions have not yet even been costed. 14

16 Another example can be taken from the area of environmentally friendly recreational boating. This applies to the management of toilet waste, which might cost tens of millions of Swedish kronor a year. In a first stage the costs would probably have to be borne by the ports. They would then probably be passed on to the recreational boat owners through raised port dues. The cost items for the other measures included in the Awareness Raising section total just under SEK 5 million a year over an average of three years. 15

17 Eutrophication This chapter first presents an impact assessment for the whole area of eutrophication with all the developed measures that are described in Proposals for a national plan of action (Swedish EPA Report 5985) and are judged to need to be analysed. Measures to be taken on sewage treatment plants and on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes, as well as large-scale mussel farming, have been assessed separately. The numbering of these measures below follows the numbering in the proposed national plan of action. There are also costs and impacts for other measures (Swedish EPA Report 5985). Measures to meet the nitrogen and phosphorus requirement Purpose and method The purpose of this impact assessment is to gain an idea of what socio-economic impacts attempting to reduce the nitrogen and phosphorus load according to the burden sharing contained in the Baltic Sea Action Plan signifies for Sweden. As the objectives below are already given, the principal purpose of the assessment is to attempt to clarify what measures fulfil the objectives at lowest cost, and what measures it is cost-effective to implement first. Most of the measures are intended to reduce phosphorus and nitrogen inputs for more reasons than fulfilling the BSAP. Implementation of a measure at the same time contributes for example to fulfilling the Water Management Ordinance, the environmental quality objective of Zero Eutrophication and a little further into the future the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This means that the costs of implementing the measures ought to be shared between these different objectives and not just be borne by implementation of the BSAP. It has not been possible to undertake any such distribution here. On the other hand, the costs of some measures have been entirely allocated to other processes. These measures have been classified as Bonus in the tables below. Description of problem Eutrophication in the seas surrounding Sweden has led to a number of negative effects on the environment such as poorer visibility depth, oxygen-free seabeds and overgrown shallow bays. Eutrophication is the greatest environmental problem in many of our marine areas. The nitrogen and phosphorus load from Swedish sources on the sea has decreased in recent years, but is still too high, and further reductions are therefore required. The principal sources of nitrogen and phosphorus load are inputs from municipal sewage treatment plants and agriculture. Industrial plants, on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes and forestry also contribute to a smaller extent. The source distribution of the anthropogenic nitrogen load to the Kattegatt and the Sound and the nitrogen and phosphorus load on the Baltic Proper for 2006, according to the calculations for reporting to PLC5, are shown in Tables 1 and 2. 16

18 Table 1. Anthropogenic nitrogen load, 2006 (tonnes) Sewage treatment plants Singlefamily homes Agriculture Deposition Clearfelling Stormwater Total Industry Baltic Proper Sound Kattegatt Source: According to calculations for reporting to PLC5 Table 2. Anthropogenic phosphorus load, 2006 (tonnes) Sewage treatment plants Single-family homes Clearfelling Stormwater Total Industry Agriculture Baltic Proper Source: According to calculations for reporting to PLC5 Formulation of objective The overarching objective regarding eutrophication according to the BSAP is for the Baltic Sea to reach the 1950s level of eutrophication. In order to attain this status, the Baltic Sea States have agreed that by 2016 they will have taken measures against both airborne and waterborne nutrient inputs with a view to attaining the goal of good environmental status by Strong initiatives need to be taken by all the states if the set targets are to be attained. From the point of view of Sweden, the preliminary revised calculations for eutrophication, after reductions implemented between 2000 and 2006 have been deducted, mean that the nitrogen load has to decrease by tonnes and the phosphorus load by 280 tonnes. This is to be achieved through a reduction for: the Baltic Proper of tonnes of nitrogen (32% of the anthropogenic load) and of 280 tonnes phosphorus (61% of the anthropogenic load). the Sound of tonnes of nitrogen (26% of the anthropogenic load). the Kattegatt of tonnes of nitrogen (48% of the anthropogenic load). Significant measures will need to be taken in several sectors to meet the remaining commitments under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Reference alternative The nitrogen and phosphorus inputs from Sweden to the Baltic Proper, the Sound and the Kattegatt have decreased in recent years. The decrease is not, however, progressing at such a rate that the remaining requirements for nitrogen and phosphorus according to the BSAP will be met within the designated time. Work among other things on fulfilling the environmental quality objective of Zero Eutrophication, the European Community's Nitrates Directive and the implementation of the Water Management Ordinance is expected to mean that Sweden will come closer to meeting the requirements, but it is not considered sufficient for the requirements to be met in the designated time. 17

19 There are a small number of measures and instruments that have already been decided on that mean that the nitrogen and phosphorus load will fall from the present-day level even if no further measures are taken. This applies for example to the ban on phosphates in detergents, restrictions on the spreading of manure and various instruments that limit emissions of nitrogen oxides. The decreases in load to which these measures and instruments lead will contribute to a greater or lesser extent to meeting the remaining requirements in the BSAP. We can credit ourselves these load reductions without the cost being allocated to the BSAP, but it falls a long way short of meeting the requirements. Developed measures Far-reaching measures will need to be implemented in all sectors for it to be possible for Sweden to achieve the load reductions required. We have chosen to divide the action alternatives into proposed and potential. Most of the proposed measures are such that can come about in the near future (principally measures in the agricultural sector) and where there are data for the calculations of effects and costs. The data for the proposed measures at sewage treatment plants and in the forest industry suggest that measures are relatively cheap and produce significant load reductions, but further investigation is required to establish effects and costs for individual installations. The potential measures are such that can be put into practice in the slightly longer term, where the potential of measures is utilised further or where it is not always possible to make calculations for potential, effects and costs. There are also a number of measures and instruments 1 which are included under proposed measures in the report but have already been decided upon and in some cases have already been implemented, and which contribute to meeting the requirements in the BSAP although the principal purpose is different. The load reductions to which these measures/instruments lead can be credited without any cost accruing to implementation of the BSAP. They can be found in the tables under the heading of Bonus. The measures/instruments whose effect can be credited and the proposed and potential measures are presented below: INSTRUMENTS/MEASURES WHOSE EFFECT CAN BE CREDITED: - Changed choice of crop and implemented measures in the agricultural sector - Ban on phosphates - Deal with on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes with septic tanks only - Reduction in NOx emissions - Restricted spreading of manure in late autumn and winter - Safe distance from lakes and watercourses in spreading of fertiliser and manure - Biogas production and spreading of digested manure PROPOSED MEASURES: - Reduced inputs from industry (the forest industry) 1 Measures mean a physical or behavioural change with the aim of reducing the nitrogen and phosphorus load. Instruments mean tools used by central government to implement measures, such as laws, regulations, taxes, charges or information. 18

20 - Reduced inputs from sewage treatment plants - Reduced inputs of toilet waste from leisure craft Agriculture - Development of skills, Focus on Nutrients - Growing of catch crops and spring soil cultivation - Controlled drainage (2 000 ha) - Reduced soil cultivation - Restricted spreading of manure on winter cereals (Skåne, Blekinge and Halland) - Restricted spreading of manure on winter cereals (other nitrate-sensitive areas in Götaland) - Technology for improved adaptation of nitrogen fertiliser use - Wetlands on agricultural land - Buffer zones - Buffer zones for land prone to erosion - Phosphorus sedimentation ponds Forestry - Buffer zones alongside water POTENTIAL MEASURES: - Further reductions in inputs from sewage treatment plants - Measures for stormwater - Further reductions in inputs from on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes - Mussel farming Agriculture - Further controlled drainage - Creation of further wetlands - Further increase in growing of catch crops - Further increase in acreage of buffer zones - All manure is used for biogas production - Nitrogen fertiliser use below economically optimal level - Other measures in the agricultural sector Forestry - Shelterwood - Other measures in the forestry sector Impacts of proposed and potential measures Regardless of what measures are implemented, an environmental benefit is obtained as a consequence of the nitrogen and phosphorus load decreasing. These positive impacts consist mainly of an improved marine environment, principally in the coastal areas, in the form of reduced algal bloom, increased oxygen supply and increased visibility depth. As the targets for nitrogen and phosphorus reduction are already set, the impacts that arise as a consequence of the implementation of the measures to attain the targets are of greater interest. An account is given below firstly of the load reductions from the measures/instruments whose effect can be credited. There then follows an account of the impacts for the proposed and potential measures, principally the effect these measures have on the nitrogen and phosphorus load and the cost of implementing the measures. An attempt has also been made to identify other impacts, but no attempt has been made 19

21 to value these impacts in monetary terms. It may for example happen that it is noted that a measure means that use of electricity increases, but what effect it has on climate impact and its costs have not been identified. The reductions in load and costs reported are based in most cases on assumptions, and there are large underlying uncertainties, so that these figures should only be regarded as a pointer. An average cost of reduction (calculated with 4% interest and technical lifetime) has been calculated for the vast majority of the measures, making it possible to relate the measures to one another. The cost of reduction for a measure varies, however, depending on where the measure is implemented. It can generally be said that the cost is lowest if the measures are implemented in coastal areas as the retention there is low or zero. The effect and annual cost shown assumes that the full potential of the measure indicated is utilised. It means that effects and costs are overestimated until the full potential has been attained. As the target year is 2021, it is principally the annual costs to maintain these load reductions until then that are indicated. With regard to the costs of several of the measures in agriculture, these correspond to the payment which is made or which it is proposed will be made to farmers under the rural development programme. In a number of cases the proposals also mean that the payment for existing commitments is raised. This cost does not entail any further reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus load, merely that current load reductions are maintained and are therefore reported separately. The load reductions shown apply to the Kattegatt, the Sound and the Baltic Proper together unless otherwise stated. For phosphorus the reduced inputs to the Baltic Proper are stated separately as it is only there that there is a requirement for phosphorus load. For more detailed descriptions of the measures see Report MEASURES THAT CAN BE CREDITED The following measures can be credited to attempt to meet requirements regarding the nitrogen and phosphorus load in the BSAP: Changed choices of crop and implemented measures in the agricultural sector No effect of created wetlands, reduced soil cultivation and changed crop choices are included in the model calculations made to calculate the reduced nitrogen and phosphorus load from agriculture up to According to calculations nitrogen inputs to the Baltic Proper have fallen by 870 tonnes and phosphorus inputs by 8 tonnes as a result of these measures. As the measures and changes have already been implemented, the load reductions can be credited. Ban on phosphates A ban on phosphates in detergents was introduced in Sweden on 1 March, and this is estimated to lead to a decrease in phosphorus inputs of 12.5 tonnes, of which 8 tonnes to the Baltic Proper. There is a proposal on which views have been invited for phosphates also to be banned in dishwasher detergents with effect from 1 July If this proposal goes through it will mean that phosphorus inputs will decrease by a further 9 tonnes, of which 5 tonnes to the Baltic Proper. 20

22 Deal with on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes with septic tanks only According to current legislation all on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes has to be more extensive than septic tanks. According to the guidelines which the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has prepared containing recommendations for municipalities, on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes in areas with a normal level of protection has to have a degree of removal of at least 70% for phosphorus. In areas with a high level of protection the on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes has to have a degree of removal of 90% for phosphorus and 50% for nitrogen. If all on-site wastewater treatment of single-family homes is dealt with in accordance with the legislation and a new septic tank and a sand filter are installed, for example, nitrogen inputs are estimated to decrease by around 180 tonnes and phosphorus inputs by 33 tonnes, of which 18 tonnes to the Baltic Proper. A degree of removal of 25% has been assumed for nitrogen and 45% for phosphorus. However, the degrees of removal are uncertain and can vary between 10 and 40% for nitrogen and between 25 and 90% for phosphorus. This means that the recommendations for normal level of protection perhaps cannot always be attained. As there is already a statutory requirement for more far-reaching treatment than septic tanks, the load reductions can be credited to the BSAP without any cost. Reduction in NOx emissions Because of prevailing trends and measures and instruments already decided upon, the quantity of nitrogen deposited in the Baltic Proper is expected to decrease by around tonnes from the 2007 level. This reduction can be credited without any costs being attributed to implementation of the BSAP as the measures and instruments have already been decided upon. Restricted spreading of manure in late autumn and winter Under the Nitrates Directive the action programmes of the Member States have to contain prohibitions and restrictions relating to the spreading of manure during certain periods. Sweden s application has not been considered adequate, and proposals for supplementary rules have been drawn up. It is proposed that these prohibitions and restrictions which mean that the nitrogen load decreases by 18 tonnes will come into force in 2010 and As these are measures that are primarily implemented to comply with the Nitrates Directive, the effects of these can be credited to the BSAP at no cost. Safe distance from lakes and watercourses in spreading of fertiliser and manure Provisions on the spreading of fertilisers alongside lakes and watercourses are due to come into force on 1 January As these too are measures that are implemented in compliance with the Nitrates Directive, the effects of the measures can be credited to the BSAP at no cost. The effects on the nitrogen and phosphorus load as a consequence of these provisions have been estimated at a decrease of 20 tonnes of nitrogen and 0.5 tonnes of phosphorus. Biogas production and spreading of digested manure Producing biogas from manure primarily leads to positive effects in the area of climate change, but digestion of manure should also be positive on the basis of leaching. There 21

23 is increasing interest in farm-based biogas production in Sweden. If biogas installations are built in proportion to the potential in different counties, the nitrogen load on the sea is estimated to decrease by up to 120 tonnes. As this is a measure which is primarily implemented to produce biogas and reduce climate impact, no cost is allocated to nitrogen reduction and nitrogen reduction is instead regarded as a bonus. Farmers can apply for grants of 30% of the investment cost through the investment support. PROPOSED MEASURES The following measures are proposed in order to attempt to fulfil commitments regarding the nitrogen and phosphorus load in the BSAP: Reduced emissions from industry (the forest industry) It is primarily in the forest industry that the nitrogen and phosphorus load can be reduced through further continuous improvements and supplementary treatment in some installations. It has been estimated that these contribute to reducing the load by 200 tonnes of nitrogen and 10 tonnes of phosphorus at an estimated cost of around SEK 100/kg N and SEK 1 000/kg P. There is small potential to reduce emissions from the iron and steel industry. Judicial review is required to bring about measures, which is demanding on resources. Reduce discharges from sewage treatment plants If the treatment plants that have a load of at least pe (population equivalents) were to implement measures which mean that they reach a reduction level of around 80 per cent for nitrogen, it is estimated that the nitrogen load would decrease by just over tonnes/year at an annual cost of around SEK 190 million. The average cost of reducing the nitrogen load from other size categories of treatment plants has been estimated at between SEK 38 and 102/kg N. The capabilities and therefore the costs differ in each size category. The capabilities of each plant to further reduce the nitrogen load must therefore be assessed individually. The phosphorus load can be reduced by increasing the dosage of precipitation chemical at those sewage treatment plants which in 2006 had post-precipitation and an outgoing concentration above 0.2 mg P/l (action 1a). When the dosage is raised for those plants that load the Baltic Proper so that they come down to a level of 0.2 mg P/l in outgoing water, the reduction in load has been estimated at just over 15 tonnes P at an average cost of SEK 180/kg P. The annual cost is SEK 2.8 million. The proposed measures at the sewage treatment plants mean that the use of carbon source, energy and precipitation chemicals increases, the costs of which, but not other negative effects (for example climate impact) are included in the cost of measure. As the prospects of implementing further emission reductions differ for different plants, individual judicial review is required to reduce the emissions further, which is demanding on resources. Reduced discharges of toilet waste from leisure craft The National Maritime Administration has been tasked with creating a system which is intended to reduce discharges of toilet waste from leisure craft. The findings are to be reported on 1 December 2009, but in the present-day situation it has been estimated that the phosphorus load could be reduced by around 4 tonnes annually at an estimated cost of SEK 52 million or SEK /kg P if almost all toilet waste is brought on land and disposed of. These estimates are very uncertain, and more accurate calculations will be 22