Climate change impacts on city of Gdansk and its vicinity (Vistula Delta, Poland)

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1 Final International ASTRA Conference Espoo, December, 2007 Climate change impacts on city of Gdansk and its vicinity (Vistula Delta, Poland) Dorota Kaulbarsz, Zbigniew Kordalski, Wojciech Jeglinski Polish Geological Institute Branch of Marine Geology Gdansk, Poland

2 Gdansk case study area Hel 107 m bsl. Puck Lagoon Peninsula GULF of GDAŃSK Gdynia Gdańsk Vistula Delta Vistula Spit Vistula Lagoon Southern Baltic coast Diverse landscape morainic hills with a net of erosive valleys and depression areas of the Vistula delta Mostly sandy (dune) coast 266 m asl. 1.8 m bsl. Vistula 17/12/07 2 Vistula Delta Plain

3 The most important climate change impacts coastal erosion (intensification of coastal erosion due to sea level rise and dangerous storms) sea floods (due to sea level rise and higher probability of so far 100 years storm occurrence) river floods (heavy precipitations, ice jams; higher danger when simultaneously occur with storm surge) groundwater table level rise and ground surface inundation (man-induced factor decrease of water consumption intensified by sea level rise) intrusion of salt water into the fresh water aquifers (higher probability of heavy storm surges occurrence) landslides higher probability of landslides activation due to predicted more intensive precipitations (in the coastal area as well as in the contact zone between morainic upland and low lying coastal terrace) eutrophication/ alga blooms in the Gulf of Gdańsk 17/12/07 3

4 Coastal erosion The most affected streches of the coast within ASTRA Gdansk case study area ( ) urban areas and settlements, industrial areas, agriculture areas fishery facilities, touristic facilities could be affected by storms Damages concerned mainly beaches and touristic facilities and instalations 17/12/07 4

5 Adaptation strategy coastal management National strategy for coastal area protection (2000) takes into account observed and expected changes of the sea level due to climate change (0.3; 0.6; 1.0 sea level rise scenarios) - provides basic directions to reduce costal risks - assigns general indicators for five different safety classes for development activities in flood and erosion risk areas (increase the safety of the hinterland) - assigns a coastal belt to ensure an adequate level of safety along the cost; development activities within this belt must obtain a permission of regionally corresponding Director of Maritime Office 17/12/07 5

6 Floods in Gdansk Gdansk is one of the most flood prone areas in Poland, simultanously it s one of the best protected it has nearly 700 years of experience with living under flood risk There is a net of flood protection infrastructure as dikes, ditches, culverts, sluices/storm gates, pumping stations and storage reservoirs, however they still need to be renovated and reconstructed Flood protection and drought impact prevention are public tasks, realized by governmental and local administration At the moment there have been indicated areas of direct flood risk, which according to the legislation have to be considered in spatial planning studies special land use regulations: Regional Board for Water Manageement - river basins Maritime Office - coastal belt 17/12/07 6

7 Flood protection in Gdansk existing/ planned draining pumping stations existing/ planned emergency water discharges existing/ planned storage reservoirs sluices/storm gates dikes storm water drainage areas of direct flood risk (including costal belt) polders Stretches of coast predicted to be protected in (by operation of low: Long Term Program of Coastal Protection) modernisation of costa enforcements beach nourishement On the basis of the project of Study on preconditions and directions of spatial development for Gdansk Gdansk Development Agency, 2007

8 Floods in Gdansk examples Water stage 3.36 m above mean sea level 340 km2 flooded (75% of contemporary city area under water) citizens affected /12/07 Precipitation (average for July 68 mm, 9 July 120 mm) Embankment of Radunia Channel breached in 5 places 300 families affected Main railway station was out of order for 1 week, main roads were blocked 8 Total losses in infrastructure 50 mln. USD

9 Climate change impact assesment spatial development 17/12/07 9

10 Climate change impact assesment spatial development SEAREG sea level rise scenarios 17/12/07 10

11 Climate change impact assesment spatial development 17/12/07 11

12 Climate change impact assesment groundwater vulnerability to pollution 17/12/07 12

13 Climate change impact assesment groundwater vulnerability to pollution DRASTIC probably the most widely groundwater vulnerability mapping method (Aller et al., 1987; Depth to water; Recharge net, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, Conductivity) For the project purposes this approach was modified to take into account saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise or extreme events. Two additional parameters were taken into account: distance from coastline or channels [m] altitude [m a.s.l.] vulnerability index = product of ratings and weights assigned to the parameters used in the method 17/12/07 13

14 Climate change impact assesment groundwater vulnerability to pollution DRASTIC probably the most widely groundwater vulnerability mapping method (Aller et al., 1987; Depth to water; Recharge net, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, Conductivity) For the project purposes this approach was modified to take into account saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise or extreme events. Two additional parameters were taken into account: distance from coastline or channels [m] altitude [m a.s.l.] vulnerability index = product of ratings and weights assigned to the parameters used in the method Ranges of vulnerability index (vulnerability class) 17/12/07 14

15 Dissemination and discussion International conferences and seminar 2 nd ASTRA conference in Gdańsk Climate change adaptation and flood risks in coastal areas (October, 2006), over 100 participants from the Baltic Sea region countries, within nearly 50 representatives of local and regional stakeholders, planners and scientists from Poland, simultanous translation into Polish ASTRA seminar in Gdańsk (October, 2006) a dialog oriented step towards adaptation strategies for the Baltic Sea Region (discussion with stakeholders in two parallel strings: with local and and pan-baltic focus, facilitated by experienced ASTRA experts; in presence of Polish interpreters) Joint active participation of representatives of Regional Board for Water Management in Gdańsk and Gdańsk Development Agency in the ASTRA conference in Riga (May, 2007), dedicated to climate change and waters, combined with pannel discussion on integration of climate change adaptation issues into existing development policies 17/12/07 15

16 Dissemination and discussion ¾Presentations and meetings with local/ regional planners and authorities; discussion on possible present and future cooperation Geological Institute (October, 2005; September, 2007; 18 December, 2007) Gdańsk Development Agency (December 2006) ¾ Personal info and interviews, data exchange ¾ Expertises, publications/ information materials Expertise on threats for groundwater admissible resources for the Gdańsk region Information placed in Polish Hydrogeological Survey Reports, warning against climate change impacts for the groundwaters in the Gdańsk region ¾Open public presentations/discussions during regional/local open air events V Baltic Festival of Science (May, 2007) Fete Green weekend Ecological Saturday 17/12/07 (June, 2007) 16

17 Climate change impacts SUMMARY The main risk for the Gdansk region is related to waters Potentially affected ares are beaches (tourism), arable land and production-service sector. Spatially less affected would be areas of residential-service, service and transport/communication functions, but the impacts on this sectors could be serious due to its importance for the region Since groundwater intakes of high admissible resources and great importance for the city are located on low lying, potentially endangered areas, the climate change issues concern water supply system The ASTRA activities caused rise of awareness on climate change impacts, as well as made relevant authorities realise necessity of consideration of climate change issues in the planning processes and long term sectoral strategies 17/12/07 17

18 Thank you for your attention!

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