Climate change scenarios for the Barents Region

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Bartholomew Parker
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1 Climate change scenarios for the Barents Region Jan Erik Haugen Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo Conference on Climate Change in the Barents Region, Rica Hotel, Vadsø, Sept

2 Some facts as introduction... Higher warming rate over Arctic landareas during last 2-3 decades than any other region on the earth Sea-ice cover has decreased in the order of 10% during the same period The Barents Sea has essentially been ice-free in the summers during the last 4 years Observations indicate that the IPCC AR4 models underestimate the rate of heating and decrease in icecover The climate change in the Arctic has already led to impact on the environment and on economic activities Large variability, from year-to-year and on decadal scale Continued warming will greatly affect ecosystems, cultures, lifestyles and economics across the Arctic

3 Outline Sea-ice Historical development Results from global climate models Temperature, precipitation, wind, waves Historical development and climatology Results from simulations in the NorACIA and RegClim projects Ocean Summary

4 Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Arctic seaice coverage today September NB Melt ponds source of measurement error during summer Source: NSIDC (The National Snow and Ice Data Center)

5 source: NSIDC & Univ. Bremen Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Trend in Arctic seaice coverage (sept) September Min. i 2007 Trend: -11,7% per tiår Min. during last 4 years 2008 first year with open Northwest and Northeast Passage Trend : % per decade Trend : % per decade NB Naturlig variability + geographical distribution

6 Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Distribution with respect to multiyear ice Sorce: NOAA report State of the Arctic, oktober 2006, og NSIDC.

7 Seaice: Observed trend and climate models (IPCC AR4) All IPCC have a clear trend towards decreased seaice : trend(obs) = 2 x trend(mod) 2007/2008 observed = average IPCC model estimate in 2050 Model weaknesses Too little heat transport into the Arctic (ocean and atmosphere) Vertical water profile UCAR 2007, Steve Deyo

8 The NorACIA scenarios... A regional climate model with spatial resolution of 25km, covers the Barents Sea. Scenarios based on the ECHAM4 model for og Statistical downscaling of temperatureand precipitation scenarios from a number of IPCC-models at selected stations

DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FOR THE NORDIC ARCTIC A regional climate modell used in the NorACIA project Horizontal resolution 25 km Vertical reolution 31 levels Most European regional climate

9 DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FOR THE NORDIC ARCTIC A regional climate modell used in the NorACIA project Horizontal resolution 25 km Vertical reolution 31 levels Most European regional climate models do not cover Barents Region The NorACIA model had a more realistic terrain compared to previoes simulation The seaice and ocean state was still specified from relative coarsemesh global data

10 Temperature, deg C Empirical Statistical Downscaling F(x) 10.0 OSLO - ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OBS OBS-F1 OBS-F2 MOD MOD-F1 MOD-F2

11 Temperature Climatology Mean seasonal temperatures (degc) for based upon a NorACIA downscaling of ERA40

12 T, grader C Temperature last 100 years Annual mean temperature, Svalbard Airport - Longyearbyen OBS filt 1 filt C/decade

13 T, grader C T, grader C T, grader C T, grader C Temperature last 100 years Winter Summer (+0.21 deg/decade) deg/decade Spring 0 Autunm deg/decade deg/decade

14 Temperature from empirical downscaling

15 A scenario for Vardø

16 Temperature scenarios Projected change (degc) in seasonal temperature from to (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: IS92a RCM: NorACIA 24 km)

17 Temperature scenarios Projected change (degc) in seasonal temperature from to (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)

18 Precipitation climatology Mean seasonal precipitation (mm) for based upon a NorACIA downscaling of ERA40

19 Precipitation last 100 years Annual precipitation, Svalbard Airport - Longyearbyen OBS filt 1 filt %/decade

20 mm Precipitation last 100 years Ny-Ålesund SvalbardAirport IsfjordRadio Bjørnøya JanMayen Hopen

21 Precipitation from empirical downscaling

22 Precipitation scenario Projected change (%) in seasonal precipitation from to (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)

23 vs Change (%) Precip > 20mm/day Left: RegClim (8 mod) 50 km, Right NorACIA: 25 km

24 vs Change (%): Snowfall > 10 cm/day Left: RegClim (8 mod) 50 km, Right NorACIA: 25 km

25 Projections of changes in annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation Given values are indicating intervals of geographical gradients, and are not a measure for uncertainty Svalbard Northern-Norway A* B* ESD** A* B* RegClim*** Comb**** ESD** Annual Temp Spring (degc) Summer Autumn Winter Annual Precip Spring (%) Summer Autumn Winter A: From to (NorACIA-RCM) B: From to NorACIA-RCM RegClim: From to (Comb HAD + MPI (B2), RegClim-brochure, 2005) Komb: Change during 70 years [Comb, 8 AOGCMs, Haugen & Iversen (2008)]

26 Wind scenarios Change (%) in max. daily windspeed from to (Global modell: MPI ECHAM4, SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)

27 Extreme wind scenarios Projected change in occurance of wind speed with return period of 5 years (in present climate) Based on 8 RegClimscenarios with 50km grid (Haugen og Iversen, 2008)

28 Wave-heigh scenarios Increase in the Barents Sea for average and extreme wave height Average significant wave height winter (DJF): +2% in southern part +10% in northern part Extreme wave height (99 percentile) +2% in Barents Sea, max +8% NE of Svalbard (Debernard og Røed 2008)

29 Average sea-level increase (cm) from year 2000 to 2100 (Drange et al. 2007) Northern Norway: cm in 2050 and cm in 2100 (corrected for land-rise) Drange et al.

30 Summary Sea-ice extent in the Arctic Dramatic decrease in sea-ice extent last 30 years Decreasing areas with multi-year ice High probability for about 10% less ice-cover per decade Influenced by large natural variability Within 2050 most years will probably have a few months with ice-free (<15%) conditions in most Arctic areas Open sea areas outside EurAsia. Large year-to-year variations and in geographical distribution.

31 Summary Toward the end of this century Temperature: Northern Norway: increase C Svalbard: about +3 C i SW, about +8 C i NE Barent Sea: Large increase east of Svalbard Precipitation: Northern Norway: Increase 10-30%; Svalbard: Increase 10-40%, smallest in S/SW, highest in N/NE. Extremes: Increased number of heavy precipitation episodes Wind: Average: Little change along Norwegian coast, small increase in Barent Sea Storm activity: Moderate increase (large uncertainty) Waves: Small increase south in the Barent Sea; larger increase east of Svalbard Ocean level: Average increase of cm Storm surge: A small increase in the Barent Sea

32 Thank you!

33 Control Scenario B Indicator of marine coldair outbrak (MCAO), Ө/ p in K/bar. Based on NorACIA RCM 25km, ECHAM4 B2

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella