Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management WA FACILITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE THE ENGINEER S ROLE Alan Carmody, Alberfield Energy, Environment, Risk

2 Climate Change Risk Management Tools Climate change impact and risk management - A guide for business and government

3 Setting the Scene - Climate Change Scenarios WA Facilities & Infrastructure Australian Bureau of Meteorology Climate Statement /annual/aus/

4 Setting the Scene - Climate Change Scenarios WA Facilities & Infrastructure Climate Change Scenarios for Initial Assessment of Risk in Accordance with Risk Management Guidance, CSIRO for Australian Greenhouse Office Department of Environment and Water Resources, May Health Impacts of Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies For Western Australia, WA Department of Health, September 2007.

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6 The scenario for WA to 2030 Expected average temperature increases of 0.5degC to 2degC. Increases in the number of days over 35degC in: South West of +1 to + 20 days (now 27 in Perth). North West of +10 to +90 days (now 54 in Broome and 156 in Halls Creek). Rainfall changes in: South-West of 2 to 20% reduction in annual rainfall with a 17% reduction in winter rain days and catchment runoff decreases of 5 to 40%. North-West annual rainfall decreases of 1.5 to 3.5%. Sea-Level increases of 3 to 17 cm by 2030 and 25 to 75 cm by For Extreme Weather Events the following are generally accepted: heatwaves more per year droughts more frequent and severe bushfires increased risk flooding increased intensity storms increased intensity tropical cyclones increased intensity and more frequent.

7 The scenario for WA to 2030 In line with more recent IPCC publicly reported data the foregoing scenario is deemed very conservative. As such we should consider a worst case scenario based on the above but with upper error bounds adjusted by 50% of the forecast change. This is to ensure risk assessment is conservative enough to produce a useful outcome in terms of the indicated level of action required to manage identified risks to the continued effective operation of facilities and infrastructure to 2030 and beyond.

8 The scenario for WA to 2030 This is supported by more recent work in local government (e.g. City of Stirling Climate Change Adaptation Plan The A1FI scenario is the most pessimistic climate change scenario developed through the IPCC SRES. While the A1FI scenario is the upper limit of climate change projections, recent measurements of the global climate from 1990 (the baseline from which climate change scenarios are calculated) have suggested that global climate change is currently tracking to this upper scenario (UCH, 2009; Hennessey 2008). Further, this scenario is consistent with those used by other local governments in Western Australia that have undertaken similar strategic climate change risk assessments. )

9 The scenario for WA to 2030 Fremantle tide data have shown that the mean sea level has increased almost 20 cm at a rate of 1.54 mm per annum since From 1991, an acceleration of the rate of sea level rise has been observed at Fremantle, a rate of 5 mm per annum a rate more than 3 times the trend over the previous 100 years. (Winthrop Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi School of Environmental Systems Engineering The University of Western Australia Tel: Chari.Pattiaratchi@uwa.edu.au) n%20coastal%20regions%20of%20western%20australia%20final.pdf

10 Adjusted scenario for WA to 2030, (Upper error bounds increased by 50% ) Expected average temperature increases of 0.5degC to 3degC. Increases in the number of days over 35degC in: South West of +1 to + 30 days (now 27 in Perth). North West of +10 to +130 days (now 54 in Broome and 156 in Halls Creek). Rainfall changes in: South-West of 2 to 30% reduction in annual rainfall with a 25% reduction in winter rain days and catchment runoff decreases of 5 to 60%. North-West annual rainfall decreases of 1.5 to 5%. Sea-Level increases of 3 to 25 cm by 2030 and 25 to 110 cm by For Extreme Weather Events the following are generally accepted: heatwaves more per year droughts more frequent and severe bushfires increased risk flooding increased intensity storms increased intensity tropical cyclones increased intensity and more frequent.

11 Scope of Assessment Organisational Boundaries facilities and services located or delivered in Western Australia Operational Boundaries operations and services of facilities and infrastructure located in Western Australia, effectively divided into northern and southern regions. Scope of Assessment all matters associated with climate change related impacts on maintaining current operations and meeting future requirements within existing service level agreements and regulations, including the management, forecasting and planning functions required to direct efforts to meet future requirements that may be imposed from the present through to 2030 and beyond

12 Stakeholders Concerns: 1 Owners Own and operate facilities that are future proof in that they are economically viable, ecologically sustainable and that deliver services at agreed levels through to the end of their planned life through to 2030 and beyond Administrators Operate facilities and supporting services sustainably at agreed service levels within agreed financial and resources budgets through to 2030 and beyond. Planners and Developers Plan and develop facilities and services that meet Owners, Regulators and Users service level and comfort requirements (including staff and community) over the planned life of the facility or service to 2030 and that are ecologically sustainable. Regulatory Agencies and Authorities Set minimum standards that must be met to ensure an acceptable standard of facilities and services is delivered and maintained through to 2030 and beyond.

13 Stakeholders Concerns: 2 Occupational Health, Safety and Environment Managers Operate facilities and services that maintain an acceptable level of health and safety for staff and the community and that minimise any negative impacts on the environment, including water use, waste water, waste and greenhouse gas emissions. Building Services and Facilities Managers Maintain facilities and services so that they continue to operate within design parameters and regulatory limits through to 2030 and beyond. Service Managers Ensure facilities and services are adequate to fully support required service and comfort levels of community and staff.

14 Stakeholders Concerns: 3 Utilities (Water, Waste-Water and Electricity) Maintain agreed service levels to facilities and services through to 2030 and beyond in an economically viable, safe and environmentally responsible manner. External Service Providers (eg food, building services contractors) Maintain agreed service levels to facilities and services through to 2030 and beyond in an economically viable, safe and environmentally responsible manner. General public Ensure facilities and services are nearby, available on demand for emergencies and provide an acceptable level of service and comfort at other times through to 2030 and beyond.

15 Risk Criteria - Consequence Scales Rating Catastrophic Major Moderate Minor Insignificant Service quality (Regulatory Requirements) Facilities and services would fall well below acceptable standards and this would be clear to all The general public would regard the organisation s facilities and services as unsatisfactory Facilities and services would be regarded as barely satisfactory by the general public and the organisation s personnel Facilities and services would be regarded as satisfactory by the general public but personnel would be aware of deficiencies Minor deficiencies in principle that would pass without comment Service delivery Services would be incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not at all in a large number of cases There would be isolated instances of services being incorrectly targeted, delivered late or not at all There would be isolated but important instances of services being poorly targeted or delivered late There would be isolated instances of service delivery failing to meet acceptable standards to a limited extent Minor technical shortcomings in service delivery would attract no attention Interaction with other providers The organisation would be in conflict with other providers and this would directly affect facilities and services The effort of managing relations with other providers would drain resources and badly degrade service delivery Unnecessary overheads arising from relations with other providers would be a drain on resources but the public would be unaware of this Unnecessary overheads in dealing with other providers would absorb some effort but the public would be unaware of this and would not be affected Minor unnecessary overheads arising from relations with other providers but no material effect Administratio n Administration of the organisation would be seen to have failed and in need of external intervention Administration of the organisation would be seen to be deficient and in need of external review Administrative failings might not be widely seen but they would cause concern if they came to light There would be some administrative shortcomings demanding attention but they would not be regarded as serious failures There would be minor areas of concern but they would not demand special attention Community confidence There would be widespread concern about our capacity to serve the community There would be serious expressions of concern about our capacity to serve the community There would be isolated expressions of concern about our capacity to serve the community There would be some concern about our capacity to serve the community but it would not be considered serious There would be minor concerns but they would attract no attention

16 Risk Criteria - Likelihood Scales Rating Recurrent Risks Single Events Almost Certain Could occur several times per year to 2030 and beyond Likely May arise about once per year to 2030 and beyond Possible May arise once in a 10 year interval to 2030 and beyond Unlikely Rare May arise once in a 10 year to 25 year interval to 2030 and beyond Unlikely during the next 25 year interval to 2030 and beyond More likely than not Probability greater than 50% As likely as not 50/50 chance Less likely than not but still appreciable Probability less than 50% but still quite high Unlikely but not negligible Probability low but noticeably greater than zero Negligible Probability very small, close to zero

17 Risk Criteria Risk Ranking Consequence Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Almost Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme Certain Likely Low Medium High High Extreme Possible Low Medium Medium High High Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium Rare Low Low Low Low Medium Risk Level Extreme High Medium Low Action/Attention Required Extreme risks demand urgent attention at the most senior level and cannot be simply accepted as a part of routine operations without executive sanction. High risks are the most severe that can be accepted as a part of routine operations without executive sanction, but they will be the responsibility of the most senior operational management and reported upon at the executive level. Medium risks can be expected to form part of routine operations but they will be explicitly assigned to relevant managers for action, maintained under review and reported upon at senior management level. Low risks will be maintained under review, but it is expected that existing controls will be sufficient and no further action will be required to treat them unless they become more severe. Adapted from Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management, A Guide for Business and Government, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of Environment and Water Resources 2006, pp 39

18 Risk Criteria Key Elements Element Assets and Infrastructure Demand Community Staff Administration & support Supply chain Legal and Regulatory requirements Technology Description Buildings, plant and services (eg backup generators, boilers, heating ventilation and cooling HVAC - systems, hot water service HWS, elevators, pumps and drives, lighting), grounds and vehicles (eg trucks, patient transport, vans). Current and forecast usage, population demographics, land use and growth to 2030 and beyond Community requirements for safety and comfort levels in a warmer climate with more extreme weather events (eg more hot spells at higher temperatures, more heavy rainfall events, more high wind events, dust storms) Staff requirements to safely maintain required safety and comfort levels provided by buildings, plant and services and grounds in a warmer climate with more extreme weather events (eg more hot spells at higher temperatures, more heavy rainfall events, more high wind events, more droughts, dust storms) Funding and administrative support required for ongoing development and maintenance of facilities and services in a warmer climate with more and longer extreme weather events. (eg more hot spells at higher temperatures, more heavy rainfall events, more high wind events, more droughts, dust storms) External service providers (Power, water, waste, food and catering, transport, fuels) Maintaining facilities and service levels, hygiene etc. in line with regulatory requirements to 2030 and beyond, (increased vermin, insects, disease transmission and longevity), energy efficiency legislation, carbon trading legislation, increased administrative burden and cost of monitoring and managing energy and greenhouse gas emissions under National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting legislation, Building Code of Australia minimum energy performance requirements, plant and equipment minimum energy performance requirements. Ability to adopt and integrate new more efficient technologies into existing facilities and services in a cost effective manner to 2030 and beyond, impact of disruptive technologies (e.g. solar PV, internet/of things).

19 Desired Engineering Outcome Before we can assess potential impacts of climate related events to our facilities, services and infrastructure, we must first define the desired engineering intent in terms of service environmental conditions, availability, reliability, durability, operability and maintainability and sustainability. Basis of Design, design brief or specification.

20 Analysing the risk: Deviations from Design Intent Causes Using the tools above, the key elements listed (or similar appropriate to the project or facility under consideration) are systematically reviewed and causes of credible deviations from the desired engineering outcome are determined in line with the climate scenarios agreed for the assessment. For example, delayed access to a facility during extended, intense storm event or as a result of damage from the event beyond that allowed in the design brief.

21 Analysing the risk: Deviations from Design Intent Consequences We identify and document the credible worst case consequences associated with each cause identified above. We do this taking into consideration only those aspects of our engineered facility that are specifically required for the facility to achieve its function. Aspects such as back up generators, emergency fuel supplies etc. that are not intended to be used in normal circumstances are ignored at this point.

22 Analysing the risk: Deviations from Design Intent Safeguards We now document relevant aspects such as back up generators, emergency fuel supplies etc. that are not intended to be used in normal circumstances but that are included in the design to maintain services or mitigate impacts to services arising from each cause/consequence scenario documented above.

23 Analysing the risk: Risk Assessment and Risk Ranking We are now able to use the Risk Criteria above to qualitatively assess the likelihood and severity of each cause/consequence documented. This in turn generates an initial risk ranking for the cause/consequence scenario. We may then consider the likelihood of the consequence arising after taking into consideration the effectiveness of any safeguards applied in the design (e.g. backup generators, emergency fuel supplies on site etc.)

24 Analysing the risk: Deviations from Design Intent Recommended Actions Where we determine that there are further actions that we may consider implementing to reduce the assessed risk, we document this and allocate each action to a suitable person or organisation for action within a specified time frame. (e.g. consider upgrading secondary site access roads to withstand 100 year flood event, provide turbine air inlet chiller package etc.).

25 Summary Our local climate appears to be changing to a warmer, drier environment with more frequent and more intense severe weather events including heat waves, high winds and flooding. As engineers our engineering designs are increasingly challenged to perform under deteriorating environmental conditions that impact performance both directly (e.g. heat, flooding) and indirectly (e.g. vermin, disease) where our designs are protecting the health and well being of people and economic productivity. Applying engineering risk management tools to these challenges is an appropriate, practical way to identify, assess and manage these issues to ensure our engineering designs continue to achieve their intended engineering design function over their design life.

26 Conclusion We have considered only one aspect of climate change related risk to engineering practice, the more immediate short term risk requiring adaptation of our designs in response. There is a second insidious aspect of climate change related risk to engineering practice, the longer term impact of our designs in terms of mitigation vs exacerbation of climate change. This aspect requires a longer term but similar engineering approach through sustainability Life Cycle Assessment in selection and design of engineered facilities, services and infrastructure.

27 Useful Links IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) WA Department of Environment Regulation State of the Climate 2015 Australian Bureau of Meteorology WA Department of Transport - Sea Level Change in Western Australia Application to Coastal Planning, C. Bicknell, 2/2/ a_rev0_final.pdf Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Stage 3 (IOCI3) - Downscaled Climate Projections for Western Australia Climate change impact and risk management - A guide for business and government Alan Carmody, Alberfield alan.carmody@alberfield.com.au Phone (08) Mobile web: