Malcolm L. Spaulding Professor Emeritus, Ocean Engineering University of Rhode Island Narragansett, RI 02881

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1 Malcolm L. Spaulding Professor Emeritus, Ocean Engineering University of Rhode Island Narragansett, RI USACE Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory(CHL) Data Infrastructure Workshop January 23, 2014

2 Overview of Presentation Background North Atlantic Comprehensive Study (Army Eng) NERACOOS Supported Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (NECOFS) Vision for STORM TOOLS Web based architecture and tools Benefits of approach and web based tools Experience in implementation of cloud based coastal forecasting system for Dubai Way forward: Demonstration Project- RI coast, jointly supported by NOAA and USACE; validation experiment at USACE Duck, NC facility

3 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study. The goals of the two year, $19 m, study ( ) are to (1) provide strategies to reduce risk to which vulnerable coastal populations are subject, and (2) promote coastal resilient communities to ensure a sustainable and robust coastal landscape system, considering future sea level rise and climate change scenarios, (3) to reduce risk to vulnerable population, property, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

4 US Army Engineers county level areas impacted by Sandy

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8 Last mile problem North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study provides quality state of art predictions along the coast but the resolution is not sufficient for local studies CSTORM-MS program anticipates that this level of analysis will be a local responsibility, funded for a specific project or activity. Given the sophistication of the tools and the talent required to make use of them, the cost of analysis is likely to be significant and a barrier to use Last Mile : Link CSTORM or similar to local studies

9 MIT May 29, 2013 Development of An Inundation Forecast System for Northeast Coastal Regions Robert C Beardsley Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA Changsheng Chen University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA Develop an end to-end inundation model system for northeastern coastal regions and demonstrate its forecast capability for extra-tropical nor easter storm and hurricane-induced coastal flooding. Acknowledgement: NERACOOS for the development and improvement of NECOFS and the MIT Sea Grant for the development of the Massachusetts inundation system.

10 Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model BC s Global-FVCOM tides, currents, T and S) River discharges Groundwater Nested Heat Flux P-E Local Weather Model (WRF) Wind Stress U,V Regional FVCOM (GOM-FVCOM: km) Coastal FVCOM (up to 10 m) Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) U,V, Waves Langmuir Cells Wind Stress assimilation Satellite SST Buoy Winds Insolation Satellite SST, SSH Buoy or Survey T,S,U,V Inundation Model KEY Storm Surge (hurricanes, Nor easter) Existing Models Products: Weather: winds, air temperature, air humidity, air pressure, heat flux, E-P Oceans: sea level, currents, T, S, wave heights, wave frequencies, icing Lands: inundation areas 05/29/2013-MIT NECOFS Data Products To Be Developed

11 Mass Coastal FVCOM (10 m-5 km) GoM-FVCOM ( km) Global-FVCOM Nested (2-50 km) Nested Nested Scituate, MA (up to 10 m) Hampton, NH (up to 10 m) Enlarged view

12 The Test Site: Scituate, MA Tide gauge station 44013

13 Maps of surface wave height (m) and direction (arrows) at Dec GMT MIT May 29, 2013

14 No waves With waves

15 Boston Harbor Inundation Domains Mass Bay (up to 10 m) Enlarged view

16 High resolution FVCOM grid for eastern Long Island and Block Island Sounds (with coastal flooding)

17 Vision for STORM TOOLS Develop a system that provides access to a suite of coastal planning tools (numerical models et al) available as a web service that allows wide spread accessibility and applicability at high resolution to user selected coastal areas of interest. Tools to predict winds, waves, and currents with and without sea level rise. The models would link directly to the hindcast fields provided at the CSTORM web site or local systems (e.g. NECOFS). The models and associated data bases would reside on the web server site and run remotely via the web. The system could be hosted by NOAA CSC, IOOS RA, Army Corp, et al or on the cloud.

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19 Web Accessible Tools Hurricane and storm wind and pressure fields Integrated storm surge and wave models NOAA SLOSH ADCIRC and SWAN (unstructured grid) FVCOM and SWAN (unstructured grid) STWAVES (near shore waves) CHAMP and WHAFIS Sea Level Rise Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Other emerging model systems

20 NOAA Digital Coast Approach: Bring the geospatial and coastal management communities together Outcome: A constituentdriven, integrated, enabling platform supporting coastal resource management that is used

21 The Digital Coast in Action: Facilitating Use and Application DISCOVER Information on the C- CAP land cover data set on the Digital Coast website DOWNLOAD Land cover data for your community via the Data Access Viewer MAP Develop mash-ups with ESRI and OGC map services ANALYZE Change in your county with the Land Cover Atlas LEARN From data experts through recorded webinars SHARE Outcomes with others though Stories in the Field DATA INFORMATION ACTION

22 Benefits of the approach Universal access, with link to CSTORM-MS or NECOFS data. Substantial leverage of results from the North Atlantic Comprehensive Study to assist local resilience analysis and planning. Applicable to any area, at user defined resolution. Ability to develop study area grids at a variety of locations and differing resolutions. Allows non specialist to readily access model results and to perform simple simulations. Allows professional to access state of the art simulation tools that have been validated by the government and accepted in the technical community. Reduce the cost and time to perform sophisticated analyses for storm surge and coastal sea level rise planning

23 Benefits of using the web version Quick access from anywhere within application availability zone (VPN, etc) Capable of adding additional users as projects grow Robust for critical emergency response No need for upgrades or patches on local PCs High flexibility for data integration and service based connections No platform compatibility issues as operating systems change. Compliant with most web browsers (IE, Firefox, Chrome, Safari) Publish scenarios and metocean data to mobile devices to distribute results

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25 Arabian Gulf Operational Forecasting System HPC Cloud Infrastructure Case Study Operational Daily Forecast System WRF (GFS initialization) parent grid covers entire Arabian Gulf region with high resolution nest over Dubai ROMS (initialized with previous forecast field or climatology) parent grid covers entire Arabian Gulf region with high resolution nest over Dubai SWAN (WW3 initialization) unstructured grid covers entire Arabian Gulf region Forecast out to 5 days 0Z and/or 12Z initialization Limited infrastructure budget large cluster not possible

26 Example of downscaling winds (GFS to WRF nest)

27 OFS Timings (Model Server) Switch to Cloud $600/month For 2 runs/day: 00Z and 12Z

28 Results of Cloud Implementation Runtime reduced from 7+ hours to less than 3 hours Forecast data available sooner Additional grids can be accommodated by reclaimed time Costs reduced by reducing runtime (pay by hour of utilization) Ability to scale by demand All models compiled with MPI support, can spin up additional nodes for speed Development and staging environments available Exact operational environment can be duplicated Only pay for runtime associated with development. Once development or debugging complete, node is terminated. No ongoing costs. Allows for cost-effective model experimentation with configuration parameters and datasets Continually upgrading environment End of 2013 saw AWS(cloud) lower price (per hour) of HPC node as well as increase performance. Both price per hour and runtime dropped (from 5 hours to 3 hours). No hardware obsolescence

29 Summary Web based strategy to support the use of state of the art tools for local coastal resilience analysis and planning for storms and sea level rise. Leverage extensive, on-going work in coastal inundation modeling (Army Corp Engineers, NOAA IOOS, FEMA, etc). Cloud based strategy dramatically increases access and lowers cost to employ state of the art modeling. Provides an affordable solution to the last mile problem

30 Next Step: Demonstration Project Application to Misquamicut Beach, Westerly, RI

31 Management Question How will the area impacted by the once in hundred year storm surge (and associated waves) be changed in next 25 yrs if sea level rise of 1 m and projected rates of coastal erosion are assumed? What critical infrastructure will be impacted? How would various mitigation strategies impact the areas that are flooded?

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