Can latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity?

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1 Can latent heat release have a negative effect on polar low intensity? Ivan Føre, Jon Egill Kristjansson, Erik W. Kolstad, Thomas J. Bracegirdle and Øyvind Sætra

2 Polar lows: are intense mesoscale cyclones ( km) are short-lived (<24 hours) are associated with wind speed 15 m/s develop in the cold air outbreak of Arctic air masses during winter time occur mainly over ocean, polewards of the main mid-latitude baroclinic zone o Given low coverage of observations by the conventional meteorological observation network in the Nordic seas polar lows are often poorly predicted Severe weather risk in polar and sub-polar waters

3 NOAA AVHRR Infra red (CH4 ) satellite image of our polar low case at 0200utc 20 December 2002 Spitsbergen Sea ice Objective: To contribute to an improved understanding of the role of condensational heating Institutt for Geofag, in Avdeling hurricane-like for Meteorologi og Oseanografi polar lows Russia

4 Outline Model description Control run Sensitivity experiments Summary and conclusions

5 Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Version National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA) 51 vertical levels 9 and 3 km mesh grids ECMWF (25km analysis) is used as initial and boundary condition Run time: 00 UTC 17 to 12 UTC 21 December sensitivity experiments Physical Process Cloud microphysics Moist convection Planetary Boundary Layer processes Land Surface Surface layer processes Longwave radiation Shortwave radiation Parameterization Thompson et al. scheme Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme Yonsei University scheme Noah Land Surface model MM5 similarity RRTM scheme Dudhia scheme

6 Sea level pressure (hpa, black contours), 10-m wind speed (ms -1 ) and 2-m temperature (ºC, red contours) for the control run Spin-up stage Mature stage 975 hpa Max wind speed ~20m s -1 Cold air outbreak 965 hpa Max wind speed ~25m s -1 Hurricane-like appearance

7 SH fluxes (Wm -2 ) LH fluxes (Wm -2 ) Mature stage Mature stage extreme sensible heat fluxes ~ 1100 Wm -2 sensitive to variations in fluxes extreme latent heat fluxes ~ 450 Wm -2 sensitive to variations in fluxes

8 East-West cross section of temperature (2ºC intervals, red contours), condensational heating rate (Kh -1, black contours) and wind speed (ms -1, shaded colour)

9 Sensitivity experiments on latent heat release Minimum surface pressure (hpa) versus time NO condensational heating Control run NO condensational heating Control run Spin-up stage Mature stage

10 North-South cross section of temperature (2ºC intervals, red contours), condensational heating rate (Kh-1, black contours) and wind speed (ms-1, shaded colour) Control run Upper level low at m Close to the sea ice edge More stable air masses Shallow development Institutt for Geofag, Avdeling for Meteorologi og Oseanografi Larger distance between the lows -LHatm Upper level low at m Further south Less stable air masses Deeper development Shorter distance between the lows

11 North-South cross section of potential vorticity (PVU, shaded colour) Control run -LHatm run UPV anomaly (> 3 PVU) at 2000m height Stratosphere (~2 PVU) at 3000m height PV destruction above the eye LPV anomaly (4 PVU) UPV anomaly (> 3-5 PVU) at 3000m height Stratosphere (~2 PVU) at 3000m height No PV destruction above the eye Weaker LPV anomaly (~3 PVU)

12 Conceptual model showing phase lock between upper level low (i.e. UPV anomaly) and the polar low (i.e. LPV anomaly) with and without latent heat release Control run -LHatm run (North) (South) Upper level cold low (~ -41ºC at 500 hpa) Upper level cold low (~ -43ºC at 500 hpa) Polar low Polar low

13 Summary and Conclusions What's different from other hurricane-like polar lows? unusually strong UPV anomaly (i.e., upper level low) continuous strong upper level forcing extremely high surface fluxes Experiments omitting condensational heating (-LHatm) relative to experiments including its effect (C): their position further south deepens their development vertical alignment between UPV anomaly and polar low (unnatural) stronger upper level forcing present at all times» results in more intense polar low Condensational heating can be negative for the hurricane-like polar lows developing close to the sea ice edge Condensational heating moves polar low developments north The positive effect of condensational heating is less than the weakening of net surface fluxes entering the polar low system

14 Acknowledgement Wrfhelp (WRF) Gunnar Wollan, UIO, MetOs (WRF, matlab) Greg Thompson, NCAR (Discussion, New MP scheme, WRF) Simen Gaure, UIO, USIT (WRF) Bjørn Egil Nygård, UIO, met.no (Discussion, WRF, matlab) Øyvind Hodnebrog, UIO, MetOs (WRF, matlab) Students and colleges, UIO, MetOs (Discussion)

15 Thank you for your attention! Questions?

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