Local Climate Changes: present and future

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1 Local Climate Changes: present and future Rodica Rodica Tomozeiu Tomozeiu Lucio Lucio Botarelli Botarelli

2 Global climate changes Increase Increase of of the the global global temperature temperature is is more more significant significant from from the the 90 s 90 s Decreasing of of precipitation in in Europe Europe

3 Observed climate variability Anomalia Tmed Anomalia di temperatura media annuale 1960 Anomaly of of the the yearly mean temperature (vs (vs ) T_globale T_Italia T_Bologna

4 Observed climate variability Yearly Yearly precipitation (deviation from from the the avarage ) E-R E-R regional mean mean Trend= -16mm/10 years Trend= -16mm/10 years

5 Observed climate variability Yearly Yearly climatic climatic water water balance balance (E-R (E-R region) region)

6 Observed climate variability Anomaly of of summer Tmax Tmax (JJA) (JJA) E-R E-R regional mean mean strongest strongest signal signal during during summer summer Increase of of 0,5 C/10 years years (from (from always always over over mean mean climate climate reference value) value)

7 Observed climate variability 40 Heat Heat waves waves (>35 C) summer vs vs summer Temperatura (regional massima S. P. Capofiume (pianura BO) central central plan) plan) Tmax clima giugno Tmax clima luglio Tmax clima agosto C Tmax2012 Tmax /06/12 06/06/12 11/06/12 16/06/12 21/06/12 26/06/12 01/07/12 06/07/12 11/07/12 16/07/12 21/07/12 26/07/12 31/07/12 05/08/12 10/08/12 15/08/12 20/08/12 25/08/12 30/08/12 giorni

8 Observed climate variability frequency of of rainy rainy days days during during spring-summer (regional central central plan) plan) Moving Moving avarage avarage on on 5 5 years years 2012 Progressive Progressive decrease decrease of of the the number number of of rainy rainy days days since since late late 90s 90s

9 Observed climate variability Consecutive dry dry days, days, summer Consecutive dry dry days, days, summer

10 Observed climate variability Summer climatic water balance 2012 vs vs 2003

11 Observed climate variability Soil humidity

12 Observed climate variability Relative humidity (%, (%, year) year) summer trend Mann-Kendall test test significant decreasing in in air air relative humidity

13 NDVI Observed climate variability

14 Observed climate variability Local Climate Impact Profile Data collected in the urban area of Bologna showed that the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be a good variable for the creation of maps of the distribution of the tiger mosquito especially in the month of August.

15 Observed climate variability Extending seasonal (warmer autumns) Advance in in seasonality (early spring) Longer growing season (limited by by water availability) Warm winters ( , )

16 Observed climate variability in in Bologna Frost Frost days days Winter temporal variability of frost days- bologna Decrease Decrease of of frost frost days days during during winter winter Increase Increase of of heat heat waves waves Increase Increase of of the the consecutive consecutive dry dry days days No.of days Years Consecutive Consecutive dry dry days days giorni Andamento temporale del numero massimo di di giorni consecutivi senza precipitazione-stagione estiva, Bologna (periodo ) gmax.giorni consecutivi Ondate di calore (HWD) estive e il valore climatico di riferimento(linea tratteggiata) a Bologna Heat Heat waves waves anni anni HWD clima_hwd

17 Observed climate variability in in Bologna Season Trend ( C/decade) Tmin Climate ( 61-90) Tmin Trend ( C/decade) Tmax Climate ( 61-90) Tmax Winter (DGF) 0.4 * * 7 Primavera(MAM) 0.3 * * 18 Estate(GLA) 0.3 * * 29 Autunno(SON) 0.2 * * 19 Annua 0.3 * * 18

18 the future climate: climate projections Tools: v Global Climate Models (GCM); v Regional Climate models(rcm) v Statistical Models (DS)

19 from CGCMs to to RCMs and and SDs SDs Regional Climate Models (RCM) or Dynamical Downscaling (DD): nested into the global model Statistical Downscaling (SD): based on the statistical relationship between local climate variables and large scale atmospheric variables. Developed by Developed by ARPA-SIMC ARPA-SIMC RCM AOGCM

20 Climate projection from global to to local Global Continental National Regional Local

21 Emission scenarios

22 Uncertainty: how to to manage it it? a) GLOBAL EMISSION SCENARIO b) GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS Solution? c) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS d) IMPACT MODELS CCAReg applied to to the the GCMs Ensemble Mean (EM)

23 Climate projections of of winter (DJF) Tmin and Tmax in in Northern Italy DJF Tmin DJF Tmax

24 Tmin other seasons Tmax Note: warming in in all all seasons with with mean values up up to to 1.8 C (summer) significant shits in in the the tails tails of of the the distributions

25 Spatial patterns of of projected changes EM and , A1B DTmin_DJF ( C) DTmax_JJA( C) DTmin_DJF( C) DTmax_JJA ( C)

26 Projected changes of of seasonal number of of frost frost days days and and ice ice days, days, and and What about cold extremes in in Emilia-Romagna? Projected changes of of seasonal frost frost days days (EM) (EM) and and Ice Ice days days and and

27 Conclusions significant increases are projected to occur in minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy in all seasons, during the period The Ensemble Mean computed using all runs (8 runs for each season) projects for each season, a change in the mean of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperature around C over N-Italy; the magnitude of changes is greater to the end of the century, namely for the period , when the mean of the distributions of EM showed an increase around 3 C (mean over all the stations) during winter, spring and autumn; the peak of changes is projected to occur during summer season, for both minimum and maximum temperature, with an increase in the mean around 4 C (mean over the stations from N-Italy), with respect to present climate ;

28 Conclusions the warming is projected to be more intense in the Po Valley, especially to the end of the century; the lower and upper tail of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to shift to warmer values, with increases up to 2 C in lower and up to 6 C; a significant decrease of the seasonal number of frost days and winter ice days is projected to occur over Emilia-Romagna, more intense to the end of the century ( for example during spring could disappear).

29 Thanks for for your kind attention

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